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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    Gefs similar. Just happy not to see the trough further west
  2. Allsnow
    Gefs lock the cold in this run with -nao and -epo ridge. I’ll take that look and roll it forward in hopes p3 takes over
  3. Allsnow
  4. Allsnow
    Winter is coming to the west
  5. Allsnow
    Looks like the interior will get on the board with one of the two systems coming next week. It’s a shame we don’t have a better airmass
  6. Allsnow
    I have hope we see improvements out west by mid month. If not, the typical backloaded winter Nino is probably shot. Some of the seasonal guidance is popping a dateline ridge as the western trough moves further west.
  7. Allsnow
    Can we get a p3 response out west? If not, then the super Nino did little to change the base state.
  8. Allsnow
    Agreed. I think we should see improvements out west closer to the 15th. I don’t buy this Nina look as the datline ridge pops and the trough out west moves further west. Unless the default base state is still Nina and we never get a Nino response. If that’s the case then dollhouses at the 40 yard line please
  9. Allsnow
  10. Allsnow
    Olr maps still have lingering convection in p2 at the end of 11-15 day
  11. Allsnow
    @bluewave was saying that we might not get a p3 response until late month because of lag time and lingering convection in p2
  12. Allsnow
    Legit feels like April this morning. Nice to finally see the sun
  13. Allsnow
    Cold dry?
  14. Allsnow
    Wow. Didn’t think it got that warm back then in the winter
  15. Allsnow
    The jet ext killed any response in the colder phases. Plus it’s not very strong. P1 Nino December actually looks like what week 1 of January is forecasted to be
  16. Allsnow
    Mjo p2 in Nino January has that -pna/nina look. hopefully the convection in that area by mid month moves into p3 to help pna
  17. Allsnow
    It makes sense giving the mjo going into p3 that we see pna improvements. Sometimes their is a lag time with the response by I like closer to the 15th. @psuhoffman I agree with him on the idea if we revert back to a Nina look it’s most likely over. We don’t have time to recover from that and the strong Nino didn’t help the base state
  18. Allsnow
    I’m surprised we didn’t get more storms that month with a look like that. Didn’t we miss a costal the weekend before the blizzard?
  19. Allsnow
    Did that h5 look last all month?
  20. Allsnow
    Thanks.
  21. Allsnow
    @uncle W has anyone heard from him? I hope all is okay
  22. Allsnow
    Agreed. I had hope for the first two weeks of the months but the cold Is just not established yet… I hope this is the start of the changes we need for the second half of January
  23. Allsnow
    Sucks. Things should start turning around for you guys starting Saturday.
  24. Allsnow
    Great post
  25. Allsnow
    Gfs say congrats the Valley floor of Vegas
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