wdrag

My 93.4 at 740'MSL in Wantage NJ is the hottest recorded here since July 2, 2018 (94.1).

Doesn't mean lots of BIG storms but does indicate some have weather ahead.

Might be an interesting next 6 hours (gthru 8p?) as in my mind, the apparent remnants of Danny circulation act upon a narrow band of downstream convection vcnty PIT- possibly Scranton. FFW's upstream. Hilly terrain out there. Otherwise, please follow SPC expanding area of Watches and NWS warnings-LSR verifications.

So, impacting post event analysis... a couple of demo's this morning and why i think there is room for improvement, adding WXUnderground data for some sort of filtered ingest into radar and sensor evaluations. Pea sized hail occurred in Pike County as I recall so some of the radar data there may be a little high. Ground truth... still primary and the multiplatform mix needs further improvement. Examples follow for Pike County PA and the Indianapolis metro area this morning. Pike County PA: I saw several reports of 1/2" qpf yesterday in Pike County PA, but CoCoRahs has no reported OBS. Indianapolis: Radar eval looks a little low this morning per the reported CoCORAHS data.

Invest modeled to turn northward for a possible USA landfall in early July and is it far enough west to contribute to PWAT up here the second week of July?

I've a question to tropics group... no answer as of yet but as I'm seeing it.... remains of Danny vort lowest 300 MB (700, 850, 925) is somewhere in W TN/w KY this morning, ready to be absorbed ahead of the approaching front. Wondering if it's enhanced wind convergence is driving the band of heavy showers along I70 of southern IND into w central OH. Could be a forgotten player in heavy rains NJ-Delmarva tomorrow? Doesn't seem to have much high dew point pooling but the wind field does look like it might be a contribution well in advance of the front. Early morning qpf out there nearly 2".

Anyone still tracking Danny remains? Sees like somewhere down in TN/nw AL this morning???? Is that correct?? Thanks, Walt

Have added the 833AM SPC outlook as mentioned by Crossbow above. My gut is telling me a big day is ahead for southern NYS/CT breaking down along I80 this evening. Time frame 3P-9P, with NYC last around 7-9P. Big CAPE to our north is my flag, but the HI down here and yesterdays lead severe which I think everyone will admit was further south than predicted are my concerns for bigger this far south. Slightly stronger wind fields than yesterday as well. Also, fwiw, se NYS and ne PA picked up some 1" clusters of storms yesterday as we'll soon see via CoCoRAHS and already in the mesonet data (1.3" max so far). This post worked as normal-thank you.

Good Wednesday morning everyone, No significant changes to the WPC rainfall/severe weather threats as posted yesterday. We shall see what happens. I'll tend to be around today-this evening to comment, not so Thurs-Fri DAYS. There was 1 minor damage in the Bristol CT area yesterday (our official forum coverage area). I'll post the CoCoRAHS rainfall for the past 24 hours, around 10A with brief heavy showers nw NJ yesterday afternoon, and then last night across interior se NYS into sw CT after midnight.

Not easy to post w an image for me. Have to do some redo's. Warnings extreme ne PA and ne CT but no svr our forum. Spotty heavy showers extreme nw NJ with up to ~3/4" seen in the data between 2-445P. Saw pea size hail in an mPing report sw of Port Jervis. Wantage heat today of 92.5 at 740'MSL is hoter than anytime last summer.

Anyone having problems posting words with their graphics? Unsure what I'm doing wrong. Has something changed?

1.5" covers entire subforum next 5 fays, most of it the next 3. 2"+ across se 2/3rd NJ.

What somehow is not allowing a post direct from WPC. Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 01 2021 - 12Z Fri Jul 02 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... Troughing will dig southward-southeastward out of Ontario into the Ohio Valley, allowing the long-standing boundary to move southward and eastward as it gets reinforced from the northern height falls. Right rear quadrant of the jet (~70-100kts) will dip into the eastern Great Lakes early Thursday promoting larger-scale upper divergence above the surface cold front. Axis of precipitable water values 1.50-2.00" (about +2 sigma) will precede the front, coupled with CAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg generally south of 40N. 00Z guidance showed differences in timing and how far east (I-95 to I-87 corridor) and southeast (western VA/NC) heavier rainfall may get (or in one or two waves), though the ECMWF ensemble mean has been rather steady the past few runs while the GEFS mean has wavered on favoring the DelMarVa or not. Best QPF signal aligning with heavier QPF was over the central Appalachians which may be overnight Thu into early Fri. Multi-ensemble probabilities (GEFS/ECENS/CMCE) of at least 1"/24hrs was about 50% in the Slight Risk area, and about 15% for 2"/24hrs. Extended the Marginal area westward back to the Southern Plains and SE CO where PW values will remain high (1.50-2.00") just to the south of the cold front.

Wed-Thursday primary days, very low prob big storm late today NYS-NJ border?

Cannot seem to post my words and that of NWS products... What is happening? Potential for SVR storms north of I80 late Tue, especially late Wed, and heart of the forum Thu and southern edge Fri? Looks to me like Danny vort gets involved Thu-early Fri per tracking remains on RAL and op cycles. Iso FF possible Thu-Fri per WPC D3 excessive. Remembering all the cycles prior to last Saturday of 4-7" by July 5, we shall see. Not thinking of adding July 3-4-5 since opportunity for the bulk of the RW+ slipping just south of us - but could be close for the southern part of the forum. SPC D2 SVR northern part of Forum (I80) north, D3 Marginal throughout.

Will begin thread around 725A featuring potential for SVR storms north of I80 late Tue, especially late Wed, and heart of the forum Thu and southern edge Fri? Looks to me like Danny vort gets involved Thu-early Fri per tracking remains on RAL and op cycles. Iso FF possible Thu-Fri per WPC D3 excessive. Remembering all the cycles prior to last Saturday of 4-7" by July 5, we shall see. Not thinking of adding July 3-4-5 since opportunity for the bulk of the RW+ slipping just south of us - but could be close for the southern part of the forum. SPC D2 SVR northern part of Forum (I80) north, D3 Marginal throughout. Thread in an hour or so. Gotta walk the dog in the cool 73F air.

Our league doubleheader softball games for 60-90 year olds was canceled for Tue morning. Good move. Thinking of posting a thread at 7A Tuesday, featuring potential for SVR storms north of I80 late Tue, late Wed, and heart of the forum Thu and southern edge Fri? Nothing yet. The weekend is up in the air, though it seems to me if the GEFS is correct on cutting off a low in the upper Ohio Valley this weekend, that this would eventually spread showery weather back northeast into our area on the 4th and 5th. Timing location for svr this week, and uncertainty as to upper air pattern this coming weekend- all my questions. (SPC D3 for Wed has had marginal for us since this morning). 12z/28 EC op is progressive, but their 12z/28 ensembles less so and similar to GEFS though not as closed off. Finally had some small heavy showers tip of nw NJ around 2-4P today. Started the July topic since it hadn't 't been yet. Can change the wording if anyone has a better wording. Have no idea if tropics will involve us this July but it seems to me once this ne USA trough dissolves around the 6th, that we go right back to Bermuda heat high pressure and as per Danny, a trackable 850 vort could be active as it whips around the Bermuda high.

Just borrowed on some of the on-going themes for July... as written in June threads, with past 40 year temperature trends supporting some of our posted long range statistical outlooks including those of CPC through today-June 28.

So the summary today,for our subforum is GFS/EC bust, HRRR/RGEM rainfree being correct. No other changes to the outlook through July 5. 12z GFS iso 7" nr Long Branch NJ and EC up to around 3+. in parts of the forum. Let's see what happens... iso max 3.5? or more like max 4.5"+?

Several (June 26 and now the 27th) GFS op cycles of 4+ are on the table, though the 3+ on the12z/26 EC has waned in it's 00z/27 cycle, since it's drying us out July 3-5. HOWEVER, this becomes interesting for me since both 00z/27 ensembles are taking the the Great Lakes trough and trying to keep it pretty strong in the upper Ohio Valley-across PA on the 3rd and then eastward thereafter. Suggests to me the front hangs up around here with a shot of WAA heavy showers/embedded thunder July 3 and possibly 4, before it all goes dry for several days. Where would that occur? S of I80, I80 or north. My guess is south of I80 across NJ but??? So, continuing the unscientific cut of the GFS op run max qpf in half, I still think there' is a good chance of 4+ somewhere in our forum. Not too hard to come by, with one 3 hour merging cluster of Tstorms any of these days this coming week Uncertainty exists where persistence of high PW will occur between June 28th-July 4. PW, almost throughout that period is still ~ 1.8" or above near NYC through July 2nd... and Thickness near 576 with weak boundaries, suggests to me some big storms (damaging wet downbursts) coming in the high CAPE air this coming week. Dates and where?? Appears to me Wed June 30 and or Thu July 1 are candidates for severe outlooks here...enough wind aloft combined with currently modeled big Cape/PW/KI. Isolated SVR cant be ruled out Mon (June 28) and Tue (June 29) in the big Cape north of I80 but wind aloft is weak...which would favor thunderstorm generated very narrow swaths of big rain but not necessarily svr. To me: Seems hard to miss big storms that are capable of producing localized FF and/or wind damage mid or end of the week. No topic from myself because while it might be a little early in the summer, I just look at background thicknesses in the dead of summer (not looking at climo) and consider this within the norm. IF it becomes evident that we can have storms gain attention of a sizable percent of our forum (SPC OUTLOOK), then will generate a topic (possibly encompassing two or 3 days) but for now - just monitoring cyclicly. This Sunday afternoon and evening: latest 06z-08z/27 HRRR and RGEM have nothing while 00z-6z/27 EC/FV3/GFS/HRDPS have notable storms ne PA leaking into nw NJ.

Obviously depends on persistence for PWAT over our subforum through 8PM July 5, and so the the several (June 26) GFS op cycles of 4+ and now 3+ on the12z/2e6 EC, may end up too high for a MAX isolated point total. So lets' unscientifically cut the 7 to 3.5... max total somewhere in the subforum by July 5.... Not too hard to come by within one 3 hours merging cluster of storms. The uncertainty is where persistence will occur between June 28th-July 4. PWAT, almost throughout that period is 1.8" or above near NYC... and Thickness near 576 with weak boundaries, suggests to me some big storms (damaging wet downbursts) coming in the high CAPE air this coming week. Dates and where?? Based on what I've seen I am expecting two days of SVR in the subforum this week. Whether extensive or not?? but seems hard to miss big storms that are capable of producing localized FF and/or wind damage. No topic from myself because while it might be a little early in the summer, I just look at background thicknesses in the dead of summer (not looking at climo) and consider this within the norm. IF it becomes evident that we can have storms gain attention of a sizable percent of our forum, will try to generate a topic but reserved for now - just monitoring cyclicly. By the way I see NJ did nice today with many 0.1 to 1/4" amounts, even an isolated .49 per data. GFS convective output has been offering this for quite a while and even the conservative EC. Worthy of monitoring GFS convective output in the subforum, especially ending 18z and 00z 6 hour time periods. and convective leftovers ending 06z. There should be something daily somewhere in our subforum through ~July 4.

Drizzling in Wantage at 615A Saturday and driveway getting the damp look.

Despite the 4 days of activity (tiny area NYS/NJ) Sunday afternoon-evening, rainfall max's did not repeat over the same area Sat-The, so max amounts under 2" in our area but at least halfway decent amounts occurred LI, NW NJ, parts of se NYS-CT. Still, not a big deal and continues the seasonable pattern.