wdrag

Good Tuesday morning everyone, At 559AM, i see little change from previous. Today: SPC D1 outlook continues and modeling is favoring a new line forming to our north early this afternoon and driving south-southeast through NYC/I80 sometime between 5P-8P. Plenty of CAPE/KI/ and wind 35 kt near 680MB with TT49 should permit a few reports of SVR in our area. A second weaker line of showers may develop near I80-LI after dark but not be svr. Max point rainfall today probably close to 1.5 or 2". Many might only get a gusty shower? Wednesday: SPC D2 marginal risk. Less wind aloft but greater instability including TT near 52, to me permits SVR from I80 north late in the day. Of interest is whatever develops, may stall in its southward progression around sundown and then drift east-northeast as showery rain for a few hours. IF we get a band of heavy cells Wednesday, training and isolated point rainfall over 2" possible. ELSA: 00z/6 EC OP cycle continues northward drift of the track while the 00z/6 CMC stabilized or even slightly southeast from yesterday. 06z GFS se toward the NHC official, NAVGEM more threatening but no experience on this model.UNCERTAIN...follow NHC/Local NWS forecast offices on tracking, possible impacts. Am offline through 230P. Hopefully something of interest happens for our participants. My focus for heaviest total rainfall in our subforum the next 4 days is North of I80.

638PM Monday July 5- EDITED Topic Title to include ELSA- Too much modeling is drifting its track within range of coastal NJ and LI for Tropical Storm considerations Thu night-Friday AM. While it's not certain to make a direct second landfall across LI/southeastern New England, think it best to open the door a little more, at the least for 4+" rains this week combined convective outbursts and whatever Elsa.

Thanks.. cant count the chickens, so to speak - but so far, opportunity has not waned. New 12z OP is slightly closer. My thinking I-84 corridor is best chance isolated 4+ by 18z Friday, even if ELSA is a narrow miss to vcnty KACK. Probably won't comment much more til around 6A Tuesday, then off line through 230PM Tue.

Also, in addition to the D2 upgrade... 12z CMC coming up the coast with its weaker ELSA. Whether it does? Have a day!

Pay attention to the modeling as I think we're good on the entire thread. Already ACCAS (AC castellanas 11A here in Wantage, now buildups). Some of the modeling picking up on a big cell NYS/NJ border mid afternoon (hill driven?). Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look good for the potency and at least scattered heavy convection. Thursday: 12z GFS outlier or continuing a northwest trend??? Don't know but IFFFF NWS buys into it, then I suspect a TSWatch would eventually be needed for NJ/LI coasts for marginal TS wind.

Unsure if anyone saw the 50 Mph gust last eve (4th) in southern Ocean Cty NJ. multi reports and about 0.4" rainfall. Attached the HPRCC beneficial % of normal rain past 7 days ending the 3rd.

SPC Marginal added to our area Tue and Wed (please see simple attachment)... think both days warrant consideration due to pretty high HI, CAPE, KI and TT 48-51. Wind fields a little on the light-marginal side, but the soundings show a concentration of modeled near 35 KT winds near 680MB. NW flow SVR generally in my mind needs to be considered faster moving and potent (Tue afternoon) and in this case as modeled, develops somewhere north of I80 and rolls all the way south through the subforum. One scattered-broken line? Wed I think has improved divergence aloft-RRQ upper level se Canada jet and should have some SVR, especially I80 north. Thu: cirrus outflow from ELSA could minimize convective threat? otherwise IF there is to be a PRE, it's probably Northern New England or Quebec? Meanwhile, follow NHC on track. Am noting slight northward shifts the past 12 hours in EPS/EC op but that could again shift south. Not yet a guaranteed no direct rainfall impact, though for now at least, probably not much contribution here - still worthy to monitor.

Despite the likelihood of scattered afternoon showers/iso thunderstorms (hailer g40KT NJ?) final CoCoRAHS reports for the Tue afternoon - Saturday evening totals. Wantage NJ (this part) 1.74. Have a day!

Will add a CoCoRahs wrap-up map around 10A for Tue-Sat totals.

Happy 4th of July to all! The overall pattern remains favorable for at least 1 day of SVR, in a portion of our subforum between Tue and Thu of this coming week. The PRE and/or direct Elsa remains for Thursday-early Fri is up in the air, in part due to strength of whatever is ELSA as it passes by, and the position of the cool front. WPC-SPC have no indicators of significant SVR-FF threats to our region this week, so taking that into account along with your views of the modeling, this thread may be of little value. On the other hand, while wind fields aloft are marginal for SVR these upcoming 3 days, the CAPE/KI and some model yields suggest potential for SVR. Thereafter, modeled PW for Thu night in the tropically benign EC reduces the risk for isolated 4"+ rainfall, but there is time for models to adjust including a better looking ELSA in the EC. For now, one might consider the GGEM an outlier ELSA solution. All I do know from the modeling, despite PW down a bit... TT remains in the lower 50s for these 3 days. That combined with NYC metro non-marine influenced HI 95-100, a nearby front and potential for divergence aloft with the upper level westerly jet across Northern New England, opens the door for an active period... especially NORTH of I80 from ne PA through se NYS-CT. I may not add anything more til Monday the 5th.

Rainfall numbers beginning with Wed afternoon-eve (29th but posted the morning of the 30th) up in NYS-CT through the CoCoRaHs received obs this morning. Will add the updated Saturday #'s tomorrow. Decent rainfall and I thought a good forecast from WPC - attached example and the conservative multi sensor analysis through 12z/3 (1" short in parts of CT se NYS). The GFS op tends to be seemingly prolific, yet--- GFS implications are spotty max amounts as indicated and pretty good! fwiw: have seen 5.5" near Nyack NY on wx underground. Probably a few more 5+ around.

Did I miss an announcement? I like the updated look of American Weather... unless I inadvertently hit a key? Definitely improved.

Just had about 2 tenths of an inch in a few minutes here in Wantage Nj with a rainfall rate approaching 1"/hr. So that's in the yellow. Going to be a wet one for parts of our area today.

The evolving pattern this coming week is continuing to model high CAPE (Heat Index NYC metro non-marine influenced near 100F) Tue-Wed and even Thursday afternoons with enough wind aloft and instability to permit one or 2 days of SEVERE storms in our area. Tuesday SVR appears relegated North of I80 (mainly NYS/CT). Wednesday to me looks like a potentially big day, especially I80 region northward with TT in the lower 50s, big CAPE. Thursday into Friday: Uncertainty on evolution but big CAPE and instability probably remain in the vicinity of our subforum. It too could be a severe day, however of interest is the eventual position of the frontal boundary. IF, it drifts down into our subforum with light north-northeast flow north of it, then it seems to me the projected path of decayed ELSA wind fields and moisture plume - convergence (925-850MB southerly flow overrunning a cool frontal boundary, ranging up to the 200MB RRQ of jet located in se Canada) would promote the potential for a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) as documented in research by NYS associated well known mets. Have added a couple of their composites. These 4+" events occur 24-36 hours in advance of the TC, located hundreds of miles north or northeast of the TC even though the TC itself can miss to the south. If it doesn't and tracks over the PRE then that magnifies the potential sub-basin (mesoscale) trouble. As we are aware, we're starting to pile up the water across our subform so this potential result-NOT guaranteed, should be monitored and we'll see if it can occur, fritter, or displace north of our subforum. I'm doubtful if the potential displaces south of us. My guess is we'll know by Tuesday or Wednesday. In the meantime, I think we can expect severe storm wind/hail in parts of our area during midweek, along with possible storm cluster FF in PW air of 1.6", and probably should monitor the evolution of ELSAs ensembled wind fields up this way. Composites are added, as well as 00z/3 EC PWAT for late Thu (showing the TC well south but PWAT axis up near here). This is imperfectly modeled, the speed and location of ELSA and associated wind fields will adjust and affect the results. Let's see how this may breakdown and whether or not we can pick up ISOLATED 4-6" new rainfall between Tue-Fri in parts of our area-ISOLATED. WPC went to press this morning with a general 1"+ for our area, which supports embedded isolated heavier. You probably recall around the 28th-29th they had our entire area 1.5" for the current ongoing event with general 2"+ central and S NJ. Appears they did quite well. 638PM Monday July 5- EDITED Title to include ELSA- Too much modeling is drifting its track within range of coastal NJ and LI for Tropical Storm considerations Thu night-Friday AM. While it's not certain to make a direct second landfall across LI/southeastern New England, think it best to open the door a little more, at the least for 4+" rains this week combined convective outbursts and whatever Elsa.

Let's add on: Some of these entire thread event #'s will be big in our subforum. Isolated max rainfall 1-1.5"today and again tomorrow, embedded within bands of showers, especially where some sun can break through and warm it up a bit. IF it's thunder, especially 2P-8P, could be some small hailers, and I think a better chance for small hailers tomorrow afternoon when it heats up a little AND gusty northwest winds to 40 kt possible ne PA/NJ/se NYS where we start getting on the back side of the trough. Added on PRELIM event rainfall via CoCoRAHS only.

Good morning! Lot's of action spread out over the next 7 days. Will comment on the weekend in the specific thread and and begin a SVR/PRE thread for Tue-Fri AM by 8A.

No Elsa thread for me, yet... will more carefully reevaluate tomorrow morning. 00z/3 EPS northward drift will prompt.

Here you go on 3.5"+ for today only..., near s Nyack. Weather Underground. Digital storm totals and Wx Underground support each other.

Wantage NJ had a real rate of almost 4"/hr around 830P. rainfall today 1.42, with 0.8" in less than 30 minutes this eve. Added SVR reports from this afternoon...D3 of SVR in our area... might have hailers this weekend? and looks to me like spotty 5-7" rainfall on digital storm totals past two days near NYC. Numbers should be impressive. Overall, seems to have been well modeled by the GFS operationally at thread issue time and prior. EC was a little slow to catch on, as it may be with Elsa? More tomorrow morning. Have a night and hopefully you're not flooding. Walt

No Elsa thread yet but checking again after 8p tonight. PRE and nearby Elsa now on GFS and GGEM overnight cycles but Storm missing on EC op???

No ELSA thread yet, if ever for me on our subforum, since EC op doesn't show anything significant. GFS/GGEM do, and a possible PRE as well. So for now, am reluctant to confidently comment on tropical occurrence here. If others are confident we'll get some sort of moisture contrib., go for it. Will rereview after 8P tonight.

SVR ydy primarily I78 south, not as far north as modeled-expected when the thread started. Pathetic rainfall so far few spots far nw NJ (under 0.2" so far) but elsewhere, amounts will continue to add up through the 4th. Will review totals this weekend. No time to follow up today. Thanks for your posts. Suspect some impressive #s still possible in the forum by Sunday night.

Can’t post much prior to 7p. Interesting 48 hours ahead. Severe watch should be out soon

Summary of reports to 5AM this morning. Not quite as extensive se NYS as anticipated but something and I see 1 report on W LI looked pretty serious. Rainfall not as extensive. Will add the rainfall numbers on rainfall for the multi day event on Sat morning after a lot of this ss complete. Also appended the SPC epredawn SVR threat area, mostly NJ/LI. Overall: we have the current band northern PA extending into MA. The real deal, of whatever is to happen should be 4PM-9PM for NJ/LI..progressive. After that, evolution uncertain for Fri-Sat and maybe even Sun?? Probably not enough to meet general modeled (widespread 1.5"+) expectations from several days ago. Personally cannot add much if anything prior to 430P... hopefully you'll have something of interest by then.

Watch northern PTN of NYC subforum