wdrag

Expect NOT widespread 4-5", instead widespread 0.2-1.2" with a band or two of 4-5" probably somewhere near the 90F heat which will be in NJ (Probably D4 modest heatwave in most of NJ except coastal waters). This eve's 1-3" nw NJ in the digital storm total radar band previously shown. My Wantage (this southern part) total 1.12. Will try and reevaluate potential early tomorrow morning. 12z/16 SPC HREF under played the max by about 1" ending 8PM this evening. SPC HREF seems to favor, imo, ne NJ received ing the most by daybreak Sunday, starting this evening. As others have said, we shall see.

Wantage NJ (this part) 1.02 since 514P. in basically 1 hr. CoCoRahs monthly totals attached-these do not include today.

think it's a good idea to be ready for some short duration FF this eve in nw NJ and parts of our area Sat afternoon-eve. It should end by sunrise Sunday and this airmass should dry out per modeling. But by then the damage will be done. Already today near 3" near Wantage NJ... who gets it tomorrow... please read on

Since about 4PM Friday - this afternoon in far nw NJ se NYS .. sample 1-2" I've had 0.34 in 9 min. You can figure out the RF rate. MAX gust under 30. I think there is some small hail mixed in some of the tstms..per mPing and NWS algorithms.

No changes for me: Sunday-early Monday are in doubt due to model differences, the Canadian a little exuberant for our area while the GFS/EC say the potential big show is basically done by dawn Sunday. Therefore, focusing these next two days: SPC marginal risk both today-tomorrow in our subforum due to greatest instability. Stronger wind tomorrow so I suspect more widespread outbreak Saturday. However, can't rule out a damaging tstm I84 corridor to near- just north of NYC late today. Pattern suggests to me isolated 4 to 5" by daybreak Sunday. Where best chance? Cant comment further right now...may be back late today. Have a good day.

Appears to me a possible tstm RI very late this afternoon-eve; better chance sometime later Sat night, and to me, best chance for heavy storms is Sunday up there in RI. Let me know how it goes. Thanks. Walt

No changes in outlook. Sun-Mon remain up in the air. CF and weak low pressure posit combined with PWAT bullseye will determine deluge areas of concern. NAVGEM suddenly on board with EC for Sun-Mon. I think its good to remember all the modeling has been off on for Sunday so all i'm pretty sure of is an active Sat afternoon-night I80 north. BTW 3rd 90F day of the week at KEWR and other locations NNJ, 2 in a row there and many other spots NJ except NW NJ high terrain and some of the coasts. HI Near 100F HI tomorrow and then Sat has all to do with posit of the CF...going to be close for a 90F day in NNJ. s NJ looks like HI near 100... boundary somewhere between I84-I80? SPC moved the Marg risk tomorrow closer into the nw part of the subforum. I think a good move. Have a good night. Walt

Cannot quote me: Decision time for you is when? tonights 00z HPC HREF is a start into what and where Sat. I think we're looking good here for big QPF. my guess is RI is targeted Sunday but i could completely wrong. Still uncertainty... Let me know decision time. Thanks,

545A Thursday: Extended the original 9th post headline to Monday July 19. Modest heatwave at least for portions of NJ through Sat continues. Peak of the Heat Index values 95-100F either Fri or Sat? The main reason to extend the duration is for QPF purposes. Appears to me that a short wave (weak closed LOW aloft) will separate and drift east across the mid Atlantic states Sunday-Monday, hanging up the front a bit with HIGH PW (nr 2") airmass near and south of the front Sunday and possibly into Monday in our NYC subforum. IF that occurs, heavy qpf would occur along and south of the boundary, certainly into Sunday and possibly Monday. Where all this qpf will occur?? Guessing Sat I80 northward, Sunday I80 southward, but that is just an idea. Yes, there is still a chance the front will drift south of us faster, limiting the risk to Sat only, but there just seems to be too much information indicating caution on the previously faster progression. In the meantime: Today- could be a late shower or Tstm in high PW air coastal NJ? FrI: No SPC marginal risk for SVR, and wind fields are not favoring but with the approaching CF, I think the I90 to I84 corridor is at risk for isolated embedded SVR late Fri-Fri eve. Sat: Think it likely for FF and wetmicrobust wind damage thunderstorms, especially I80 north later in the day eve. No SPC outlook but there is from WPC, please see attached. It's a broad outlook but well stated. Sun-Mon: TBD per pgh's above. alid 12Z Sat Jul 17 2021 - 12Z Sun Jul 18 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...Tennessee River Valley to southern New England... A very slow moving cold front with multiple waves of low pressure along it is forecast to be in place from the Ohio Valley to New England on Saturday morning, and a strong upper ridge/Bermuda high will limit the eastward progression of this front through early Sunday. Much of the interior Northeast will be under the right entrance region of the upper level jet, along with an incoming 500 mb shortwave trough. At the surface, PWs are expected to surge near or slightly above 2 inches from the eastern Mid-Atlantic to southern England, which is well above the 90th percentile for this region. A corridor of enhanced PWs should along exist farther southwest ahead of the front from Tennessee to the central Appalachians, along with plenty of instability with surface based CAPE near 2000 J/kg. These factors will be enough to produce widespread moderate to intense convection with high rainfall rates, with the model consensus suggesting the potential for widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals from central Pennsylvania to the Massachusetts close where the Slight Risk area resides. It is also important to note that portions of this region have significantly reduced flash flood guidance owing to 300-500% of normal 7-day rainfall over the past week, and those areas will be more vulnerable to flash flooding from slow moving storms.

Yep, I did not expect this in Monmouth this eve (from morning post)... it seems to be mostly FF, with spotty microburst damage. At least something happened near NYC. Good WXunderground post by DONCAT. Thanks! The remainder of the eve...N CT primary but keep monitoring other cells still warned. Added the first 13 days of July from CoCoRAHS only. AND the lightning that occurred late yesterday into predawn today, Presuming this weekend's heavy showers occur, we may start a month long normal or below normal rainfall trend sometime next week...into mid August, per CPC only. Click on the maps and they show more clearly.

I see a report of wires down in Summit that the NWS posted- 4P.

Not much change in my thinking. Focus Saturday or Fri eve-Sat night for one or two bands of FF/SVR. Enough wind aloft Saturday for SVR, plus instab via CAPE 2000J, TT near 50 look good, plus the CF in vicinity. Could have a lead dying line of sct SVR Fri eve, but the bigger qpf and potential for FF is Saturday. Otherwise a routine modest short Heat Wave appears to in progress across NJ having started today. HIndex Fri near 100 (day earlier than this mornings Sat EC expectation). How warm Sat??? Keep monitoring GGEM...if it has 2+, we're good. If it shifts south, then subforum might miss. Still worthy of monitoring. Could be pretty big rainfall in few spots (2-4"?) Rest of this afternoon... Am looking north of I84 for strongest wind/rain through 8 PM. The cluster s of Morristown NJ at 335P may be producing small hail. Thursday---good beach day. Cant rule out an isolated late day shower but less chance than today,

Routine til late Friday or this weekend and even then the non-routine may not be too bad?? So it rained in the northwest part of the forum early this morning, mainly nw of I95, (0.06 here in Wantage with a bit of distant lightning). The SVR storms upstream in PA/NYS weakened into our forum after midnight. Bad timing, despite a pulse of considerable instability-favorable winds aloft. Just not enough for 1AM events. So those looking for big action- seems routine summer the next several days as I think a 3-5 day heat wave develops today (originally did not expect the 90-93F in NNJ Monday, instead expected it YDY). I kind of think the heat should start this afternoon and peak probably Saturday when a Heat Advisory may be necessary. If the 06z/14 GFS is correct, this will not happen. It's possible 90F will linger Sunday along the coast but this entire EC based scenario does not agree with the 06z/14 GFS which is faster-cooler this weekend. I'll go with the EC through Saturday and unknown Sunday. SVR: Today- There will probably be a few svr North of I84 late this afternoon but wind fields are weakening and the TT is not favorable so this may go down as a nil event, especially NJ where Bigger CAPE exists but no obvious release driver. As per SPC, monitor CT and if it goes fairly big there???? it may die out as weakening TSTMs e LI tonight???? Thursday: Continues to look rainfree-good beach day. Friday: IF a line of scattered SVR storms in NYS holds together, it could drift down into the northern part of subforum at night. The faster GFS would favor this occurrence. Saturday: Looks a little rough around here with big CAPE - 2" PW and might be FF material- winds aloft not too strong. Wet microburst afternoon depending on whether we're still in the warm sector? Sunday: Depending on frontal position-there could be a load of rain. For now uncertain but would probably favor south of I80 in central NJ but very uncertain. Monitor the GGEM on big QPF...the 00z/14 cycle may not have it right but it is trying to tell us something pretty substantial is coming, as is the EC op QPF for this weekend. Did not add a day to the the original thread title since model differences are large this weekend.

By the way the MPD highlighted by Bluewave was excellently written, analyzed and results were pretty good. W of NYC and NW-NNE of PHl.

You're on top of it... I think this was a pretty good effort highlighting potential. PWAT/CAMS modeling bullseyes are constantly improving predictability. IF the NNJ max occurred 20-30 mi further east ... headlines all over NYC news. Right now, they don't know how difficult it was out here last eve. Folks pumping out basements this morning.

Good Wednesday morning all! Not quite as much SVR yesterday as expected NJ, and the extent of heavy rainfall was confined to NJ/PA and as other have noted BUST. I want to tell you to predict 4-5" of rain in a 60 hour period via "convection" here in the northeast is exceedingly difficult. IT happened, as you know near PHL and if you don't know, here also in nw NJ. I'll await CoCoRAHS and COOP data reports but there are via WXUNDERGROUND, spot 4-4.5" as posted yesterday are probably accurate. I had 2.11 here in Wantage. The point: The NWS excessive outlook I thought was reasonable and verified in nw NJ. Going forward: I may extend the headline through Sunday in a late day or Wednesday morning update?? Otherwise, it appears to me a modest heat wave is in the offing for interior NJ, and maybe EWR-LGA Thu-Sat; beginning Wed interior NJ; and maybe continuing from yesterday in the extreme southern part of our subforum. Slight chance HEAT Advisory needed Fri or Sat? TSTMS: Today: Potential for a cluster or two of showers/tstms in NJ early afternoon, certainly ne PA into interior se NYS and possibly extreme nw NJ between 5PM and 2AM when there is a good chance of spotty WAA SVR with TT rising to near 51, and wind fields at mid levels to 40 kt with INCREASING CAPE during the evening-overnight. Please see SPC D! SVR which is marginal our area and higher risk ne PA. Wed afternoon: Iso SVR possible in big CAPE, marginal wind situation. SPC Marginal risk. Thu-FrI: Beach Days-probably rainfall free and warm. Sat: Big CAPE but marginal wind. Still with the approaching cool front, SVR possible. Sunday: Do bands of heavy showers linger or dry out? Seems like the EC is slowing down and may need to extend this thread one day?? A little concerned about shortwave closing off across PA at 500 MB and below?? Next week: appears drier to me once the front passes south. So, LI and southern CT do not appear to br prime active weather til maybe this weekend, but NJ/ne PA/interior se NYS might have some interesting weather the next two afternoons/evening? and then looks pretty good there for this weekend

Big rains Sussex County leaking into se NYS... about 4.5" Montague NJ today, and after this batch, the band coming ne from MD may light up the rest of NNJ into Li between midnight and 3A before it abates to spotty drizzle around 5A.

In northern NJ (nw Sussex County Kittatiny Ridge area should have a FFW out), 3.5" in spots, certainly less than 6 hrs, and 4" in ne NJ per these two WXUnderground graphics. Pouring here in Wantage. LI you won't exceed what we had in NJ today and your svr risk is much less than out here, but your turn may becoming, maybe Wednesday sometime, or better yet Saturday. Even predawn Tuesday you should have clusters of heavy showers. Walt 852PM.

Thanks for keeping up with this... attending son's softball game soon, unless I see storms head for Hackettstown by 630. Walt

A few thoughts then I'm off line til 9P. Just had a brief deluge but no svr. Wind turned East here in Wantage at 3P. Just need to wait out everything through 4AM... consolidation dumps should occur along and south of backdoor...decent CAPE all night. Tuesday later at NIGHT! : EC signal for supercell in WAA storms that occur toward 2-4A Wed as TT increases to near 50. Wednesday: Completing my thoughts: Big CAPE may yield another chance of SVR late day?? Thursday: Beach - rain free day. Friday: Big Cape but is it capped? Saturday: Biggest Cape fcst this week on the 12z/12 EC... is there enough wind aloft. Maybe not but right now I'll bet on SVR ahead of the cold front. BIG CAPE tends to yield wet microbursts. Challenging week!! By the way, 90F heat made in into NNJ. When does it return? More on that tomorrow morning. Gotta run. Walt cooler easterly flow? Give it time but most of the big dump may not occur til after dark.

Good Monday morning everyone, Please follow NWS info on watches/warnings this weeks thread. SPC now has Marginal risk SVR parts of the suborum next 3 days. Wind fields for SVR later this week/Sat have decreased so confidence is a little less. Still overall, am most confident of any SVR late today, Wed afternoon, Sat. Thursday continues to look like the rain free day, and maybe now Friday with action at the end of the week tending to be concentrated this coming weekend Where all the new renewed rainfall after 10A today occurs, debatable, but somewhere as depicted by WPC moderate risk excessive. HEAT: Nearby 90F today, central NJ, probably suppressed by the backdoor Tuesday, then spreads north late Wed with best chance persistent 90F days Thu-Sat. Low clouds north of the warm front will interfere with heat next 3 days...so the boundary between cloud cover and none will probably help concentrate redevelopment of convection daily, wherever that is. This may mean CT and possibly NYS has lower chances of TR+,late today/Tue. Complex daily variations of what may happen. Let's take this day by day. Am probably offline through at least 5P.

Based on Bluewave post-prompted me to add this...CoCoRaHs totals as gathered the mornings of 7/2-7/11. Note the many 9's in CT with iso over 11. I see a 9+ in northern LI (possibly near Locust Valley?) and some 6's in NJ. Here is where I trust radar/machine report mblend except tempering radar digital totals when HAIL is involved.

So far this Sunday afternoon, uninteresting here. However, modeling and now WPC joining, MDT-HIGH Prob tomorrow of excessive rain. Won't surprise me if it starts overnight-predawn Monday along with embedded isolated SVR wind. So, Monday, Wednesday and now Saturday are the targeted big days of SVR/FF. Monday as per below: FF, iso embedded SVR; WED to me looks pretty big for SVR and a few FF, Saturday to me looks good for cool frontal outbreak with Sundays' cool down unknown (CFP or not??). Noting TT on Wed getting close to 50 along with the big 2000+J CAPE, decent wind fields. EC OP offering marginal TOR threat. From WPC below tomorrow: This looks to be a useful scientific discussion of potential. ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA OF NY/NJ/CT... ...Northeast... Two phased heavy-rain threat exists Monday. At the start of D2 (12Z Monday) there is likely to be ongoing thunderstorms moving eastward along a stalled warm front over Southern New England and eastern Upstate New York. Through the first half of the day, this activity is likely to be the primary driver of flash flooding. As the front stalls, PWs will continue to surge northward on southerly flow ahead of a deep trough in the Midwest, rising to 1.75-2 inches or more, which is 2-2.5 standard deviations above the climo mean. This southerly flow will additional draw higher instability northward, with MLCape reaching 500-1000 J/kg, although the greatest instability will remain south of the boundary. Along this instability gradient however, periods of showers and thunderstorms will train eastward on boundary-parallel mean wind, with rain rates of 1-2"/hr producing 2-3" of rainfall, and the HREF 12-hr probabilities suggest low-end potential for spots of 5". This rain will occur atop soils that are above the 98th percentile for 40cm soil saturation according to NASA SPoRT due to recent heavy rainfall, so heavy rainfall should quickly turn to runoff and the SLGT risk was expanded only slightly from inherited. A more significant flash flood risk may develop in the aftn/eve in the vicinity of the Tri-State area. A shortwave cresting the ridge to the west will drop southeastward. At the same time, it will suppress the front back to the south, and the interaction of this shortwave with the low-level baroclinic zone will lead to renewed thunderstorm clusters moving across the region. The 12z high-res suite is in very good agreement in a focus of heavy rainfall focused in the vicinity of NYC, with the HREF EAS probabilities depicting a threat for 2", and the point probabilities suggesting 5" or more possible. FFG across this area is severely compromised due to the presence of significant urban areas and recent heavy rainfall which is 300%+ of normal the last 7 days. Rain rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, and after coordination with WFO OKX and PHI, have raised a targeted MDT risk for the potential for slow moving thunderstorms Monday evening as Corfidi vectors drop to 5 kts near New York City.

Good Sunday morning everyone! July 11- D1 of thread in progress with early morning SPC marginal SVR, just to the west of the forum today, in the forum Monday, and nw NYS Tue but time to adjust all of these, plus SPC no mentions Wed, Fri-Sat due to their strenuous requirements for mentions in the D4-7 time frame. QPF already 1/2-3/4" nMD fm WXUnderground and per Digital storm totals leaked into extreme s central PA s of LNS. Convection already lining up southern PA and from my perspective heading for the northern or central NJ part of our subforum. Modeling temps, the wavering position of the eventual decaying warmfront (should occur Wed), makes the beginning of the 90F heat problematic, more so than I anticipated when the thread was started Fri night. NAM punches 90F up here Monday, but then suppresses southwestward Tue with its backdoor cold front. MOS has no heatwave. EC tries and GFS2m temps go for it Thu-Sat. So, I may be wrong about this, but its so close for interior coastal plain that I stay with the general pattern. Friday seems to continue to look the hottest of the week. GFS has shifted back to extending the heat Sunday. (more uncertainty for this thread but next Sunday is not intent of the thread) FF/SVR: little change in thinking. I see modeling and WPC are big to our north the next couple of days. Synoptically probably OK but FV3/HRDPS kind of like it pretty good down here too. CAPE suggests that we favor FF/SVR in the southwest part of the forum, mainly NJ/ne PA next 2 days, then open it up northward Tue-Wed. Wind fields/TT continue marginal but the EC CAPE continues threatening as well as PW that this week will vary between 1.8-2.2", with the dry day continuing to be modeled for Thu. So I continue to look for max 5" in the subforum by Tuesday...we'll see what the contributions are the next 24 hrs and I won't be surprised by iso SVR tonight in NJ. Only 1 other note of interest: Something in the upper levels near the Bahamas this morning is rotated nw-n-ne over our area Tue. No SFC reflection nor any 850 vort, but it's a slightly enhanced wind field. Unsure whether that will play a role Tuesday for big rain enhancement? So, until he realities prevail... this thread is subject to possibly being overdone, but my personal prep continues to be for FF/SVR and AC needs this coming week, especially western fringe I95 corridor. Will monitor fairly closely today.

Good Saturday morning, fwiw - possibly my last update til Sunday. If I were to do it again. Not much change. Modeling differs. For now, models tend to end any heatwave Saturday, and are very reluctant to get it started Tue EXCEPT the EC and to some extent the NAVGEM. I'll go with Tue-Sat 90 or better interior coastal plain where no seabreeze. The HEAT is a little less my concern. Latest EC OP has VERY large 5+ rainfall this week, but up in northern MA. My guess is further south near greater instability (our area). All i can do is watch the models and reality and see how this evolves. Regarding priming: Don't know. the week after Sunday the 18th looks a little drier and very summer seasonable, but that can change.