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wdrag

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  1. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    No threads from myself: This afternoon seems like I-95 or south of I78, especially central/s NJ for an isolated or sct potentially SVR storm. SPC HREF starts a bit further northwest of I95. Confidence low. Will only react w a thread if SPC upgrades or a watch issues. This coming workweek: Low confidence w best chance Thursday when wind fields aloft are strongest. However, Thursday on the 00z/25 EC OP is not quite as robust as the 12z/24 cycle. Laying low for now.
  2. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    RE: Thu July 29 SVR: Monitoring Gust algorithm of the EC...poking 30s knots here in the subforum. That is significant for a non-TC/non Synoptic Scale Winter event...especially 6 days in advance. Will monitor cyclically and see if it holds.
  3. wdrag
    WAR? Will the Western Atlantic Ridge reassert itself and result in the verification of previous many long range outlooks of above to much above normal temps for August here in the NY area? And if so, when does the Atlantic Basin fire up? I see as of this 7/24 writing that our tropical topic posters seem to expect week two or three of August for activity getting going? SST ANOM's don't look exciting (to me) but these can change. Certainly the + anoms well north of HAT (especially New England) can feed or extend the life of TC's north of Hatteras.
  4. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    Winds are there for Thursday, as TT as well... little early to get too committed. Timing might not be quite ideal. I noticed the afternoon outlook hasn't changed for tomorrow- tho some of the modeling is trying to get isolated or sct potentially svr storms going I80 south. So for now, all quiet from myself on the threads.
  5. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    No svr thread at this time for Sunday... possible SVR, but marginal instability including late arriving CAPE, and wind fields aloft to 500 MB/TT basically below 30 kt and 49C. Doesn't mean it won't happen but would rather post if SPC D2 or D1 is Slight Risk (not marginal). EC is a little more promising middle of next week with stronger wind fields aloft. Nothing very exciting popping out at me through the first week of August up here. Maybe this will change?
  6. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    SPC with a marginal risk for SVR Sunday mainly northern part of the subforum. I like it. Would have started a thread today but for the errant thread on the missed SVR of earlier this week (20th-21st for our subforum. Gives more time to look but suspect will need a thread Saturday morning for Sunday.
  7. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    Looking at Sun-Mon potential nw flow event but could be a tweener like yesterday... does have potential but timing timing timing...?? Winds aloft not quite as strong but decent instability to feed upon. For now, low prob for a SVR event in our NYC subforum.
  8. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    Seasonable temps for a while and looks kind of dry to me, except for the "Possible" decent brief nw flow convective events with the CFP's. WNW flow events are my favored for big events, especially if big heat in the midwest. So, we'll see how this evolves.
  9. wdrag
    Looking back: Thread wasn't of any significant help. Didn't verify... except maybe southern most part of our subforum. Tweener between many reports I90 north the afternoon before, and yesterday afternoon. 615A/22
  10. wdrag
    Activity last night died quickly before getting into the subforum. Follow NWS and the SPC updates. Have not had time to reevaluate since early yesterday,
  11. wdrag
    Will be monitoring at times during the night being on call. Note that I think the NYS activity is getting ahead of the modeling... faster. also pretty decent cells well out in front to the south. Interesting night ahead NYS and CT and of course now near I90. Walt
  12. wdrag
    Featuring Severe storms this thread though with wet ground cannot rule out isolated FF where excesses have occurred recently, especially ne NJ...but PW max around 1.4" and a bit faster moving, especially Wednesday, limit the FF potential. Follow modeled (FV3, NAM3K, HRRR, SPC HREF), NWS-SPC outlooks/warnings/stmts and your own takes, obs. TT up into the lower 50s tonight and Wednesday early afternoon. Wind fields a little on the lighter side today so believe svr risk from a dying line of esewd moving sct heavy convection is NYS/CT, maybe with a remnant thunderstorm down to I80-NYC around or after midnight. Should have a refire Wednesday afternoon but where does it grow large enough to be SVR? Probably I95 corridor eastward. NJ coast may end up the most favored area on Wednesday. Check for any changes in the SPC day 1 and 2 outlooks which at 6am has marginal upstate NY today, and then our area Wed.
  13. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    SVR thread for 8P-!A se NYS CT dying out I80 near or after midnight then another risk Wed afternoon, entire forum but probably mostly I95 corridor eastward. Will detail a little more around 730A.
  14. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    Tuesday night or a bit more likely midday Wed: BAD timing keeps me low profile on this if somehow timing improves, I'd go for a SVR thread. Instab parameters, esp TT are increasing (lower 50's). Down here in our subforum I know it's pushing it for Wed, . but am thinking a bit more about NJ/LI as SVR risk Noon-4P..sort of early in the day & sfc cnv not the greatest look but Marginal risk may need to be added somewhere down in the southern part of the subforum in future projections for Wed. For now continue just monitoring for myself.
  15. wdrag
    CoCoRahs 24 hr, thread and monthly totals for those stations that qualify. Will add the monthlies in 5 minutes. and HPRCC % normal for the month not including yesterday,
  16. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    Good Sunday morning, As we clear the past week with only residual possible heavy convection north of I84 this afternoon (thread ongoing but probably dead for the most part [11-19])... as noted above, we're heading into a seasonable last two weeks of July..less risk of formidable threats-threads for us. My next consideration: BAD timing keeps me low profile on this but Tue night or Wed, if timing improves, I'd go for a SVR thread (faster moving cold front with better instability and wind parameters for a brief event), but for now no go-just monitoring for myself. Won't start August thread yet, but previously noted by someone, EC EPS seems to favor warmer than normal and wetter than normal in August, and most recent CPC week 3-4 outlook does the same for the beginning of August.
  17. wdrag
    This thread may be about done. MAY keep adding if heavy convection develops north of I84 this afternoon, but otherwise will post some CoCoRAHS, 24 hour rainfall, and 11-17 totals, and finally a monthly, where the daily data exists. Am pretty sure CoCoRaHs will not add incomplete dailies which is a drag, when it comes to looking at what there is (at least from what I've seen in weekly monthly checks). For now, have no new threads planned...looking at SVR potential late Tue or Wed but will comment in July section keeping this thread free of that small chance event). Thanks for keeping up with all of this and LI---sorry about little rain even overnight. Your turn comes...sooner or later.
  18. wdrag
    Could be related to drop size and efficiency... heavy showers embedded within an area of light rain am pretty sure are more efficient in yield. Also drop size in TC's tends to be smaller, yet adds up quicker. Note that high reflectivity in our typical storms indicates ice or LARGE drops but those drops don't necessarily translate into very heavy rain, if they are spaced a bit apart. Hope that helps. You might want to google rainfall efficiency (in tropical systems, and not?).
  19. wdrag
    Glad you asked. So when you go into underground... and the stations come up. My Map (ignore dewpoint-kaput and haven't taken time to fix) https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNJSUSSE11 Then it probably shows temps on the map. You can have the settings change to overlay radar, or change the temp to the daily precip total by clicking upper right of the MAP (settings wheel). Then... you can zoom out and look where you think bigger qpf is via your radar data source. Then .... click View Wundermap (below the map). Now you map is clean (no weather data) and to the right is the featured data. Under featured data, click weather stations,. then scroll down to precipitation and voila...there it is. Refreshes every 5 or 10 seconds and you can move the map centroid around and zoom to show more data or less... just have to be a little patient on the refresh of the data. Let me know if that works.
  20. wdrag
    0800 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE STANTON 40.55N 74.82W 07/17/2021 E4.55 INCH HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER
  21. wdrag
    I haven't checked in since 2P... Here's a few 5's in North central NJ today. Almost 4 at one official NJ climo site.
  22. wdrag
    Think I saw that on mPing as well. 46 KT at EWR out off the north at 221P, 1/4 hail. .92 in about 35 minutes there.
  23. wdrag
    You've seen early NWS products/modeling prior to 12z/17. Please follow all NWS statements/warnings this afternoon tonight. PRIMARY max rainfall bands in our subforum of W CT, se NYS, extreme ne PA, n 1/2NJ, LI; ne-sw orientation (I think) roughly ne PA/NNJ through e NYS, NW 1/3 CT. That too where wet microbursts SVR but marginal TT48 instability and max wind below 500MB of about 30 kt. CAPE plenty supportive of SVR as well HI near 100 in warm sectors which could include KEWR. Yes TOR possible but not so much dynamically driven (that would mean potentially less strong), more so as spin along a boundary. Local mesoscale analysis will help with pooling dew points above 70, CAPE, sfc wind convergence as ingredients/drivers of heavy convection (outflows considered too). Moisture, lift and instability! LI, probably not much till after midnight and then not so much. Sunday: lets see what remains... convection possible but much less PW, but still further amounts. Details TBD including whether KEWR nudges 90F? Am probably offline 230-1030P. Family gathering.
  24. wdrag
    Power outages Sussex County NJ
  25. wdrag
    Here's what happened here late today. I watched this cell-line develop from 4-515P. I think plenty more of this tomorrow..stronger winds aloft. It should come down to primary persistent convergent bullseye 5P-midnight Sat. Will reevaluate in the morning.
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