wdrag

No thread from me this morning... too much hype for too much uncertainty. I think LI is going to see pretty decent rainfall (1") east e part of LI Wed-Thursday (weak nor'easter). As per prior posts...near 90F heat begins interior Fri afternoon. Biggest heat may be delayed til Wednesday-Thursday of next week. I see only about 19C on the ensembles at 850MB Rainfall: I still think spot 6" by the 15th but it's not worth a thread since modeling is much less (esp WPC thru D7). Looks like slow moving heavy showers/few thunder this coming weekend and then next week from Tuesday onward. Probably a couple of wet microburst SVR's in there across NJ/se NYS/CT middle and end of next week. Heat and thunderstorm activity should linger past the 15th..unsure for how long but into the 17th is possible. The 90F heat looks fairly routine for summer (imo) and mainly interior, and the qpf is spread out enough geographically, so these factors limit the value of any thread, at least at this time. Will have two try to pick these qpf events off, as they approach within 2 days and have enough geographic coverage to warrant interest. Beautifully cool morning, Walt 710A Tuesday Aug 3.

No thread yet on Aug 5-15. GFS OP may be winning the war with EC OP on qpf for this Thursday as the GFS and to some extent, the GGEM have been dry. !8Z 3K NAM is dry but NOT it's 12K version. I'm probably going to have to make a move tomorrow, if Thursday modeling goes back in on qpf. Otherwise, near 90 seems plausible EWR only (interior coastal plain) Fri-Sun, then the heat is on next week. How long and intense?? I get a little leery of EC extremes beyond 7days (next Tuesdays HI near 105?) However, will check ensembles, NCEP D7 HI and multiple models Tuesday. There is no doubt heat returns next week. Does it get interrupted with a backdoor? Unlikely. Can it continue beyond the 15th? Possibly... NAEFS continues bullish on above normal temps and as per your observation of multiple ensembles. So, near 100HI next week. I think iso FF/6" between the 5th-15th. Looks like a decent chance of heavy showers-tstms sometime this weekend, then again multiple times next week from Tuesday forward...generally I95 corridor northwestward... does not look like a LI thunderstorm scenario next week... (could be different there for this Thursday-early Fri?) Tropics---just need to wait.

EC OP with a curiousity 850 Vort max moving nwwd in the Atlc Basin next week?

No time to thread Aug 5-15 , but if this continues on the 12z cycle will begin a heat wave- (near 100HI next week) iso FF/6" will thread late this eve. EC continues burst of showers/iso thunder this Thurs-Fri while 00z/2 GFS and GGEM say no. 90F may begin Fri after whatever WAA event occurs Thurs?? MOS now has EWR 91F Sunday and both EC OP and GFS OP have a heat wave here next week... with substantial CAPE and KI from time to time and weak steering flow aloft. Suggests big thunderstorm potential on at least 3 or 4 days between the next two weekends, probably interior but could leak into NYC. NAEFS continues emphatic about warmer than normal next week and a bit beyond. Curiously:00z/2 EC has a significant 850 VT moving nwwd in the W Atlc next week... whether thats real and results in a TC?

A probable dud thread.... tho watching leftovers now in ne PA.

SPC 854A upgrade -slight expansion D1 attached. ...Northeast... Scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop from late morning through the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front -- first in northern/western portions of the region, then spreading/expanding eastward. Sporadic damaging winds and isolated severe gusts/hail are possible. While magnitude of damaging gusts should be mostly subsevere to marginally severe, given the lack of both greater moisture/buoyancy and low-level flow, the expected dense coverage of convection may result in enough events to justify a 15%/categorical upgrade to wind probabilities at this time. Convection will be supported by a combination of weak MLCINH, diurnal heating, modest but adequate low-level moisture, boundary- layer convergence near the front and low, and large-scale lift aloft ahead of the shortwave trough. Moist advection should increase surface dew points over most of this area to the upper 50s and low 60s F. This will contribute to MLCAPE mainly in the 300-800 J/kg range. Strong mid/upper (anvil-level) winds will aid in organization, though low-level flow will remain too weak to enlarge hodographs appreciably. Well-mixed sub cloud layers will aid in localized strong-severe gust potential, until evening stabilization of the boundary layer removes enough low-level CAPE/lapse rates to weaken convection substantially with proximity to the Mid-Atlantic Coast and western New England.

Few thoughts: No thread at this time, but may start one this afternoon and maybe another in the next few afternoons. 1) SVR WX thread se NYS/NW NJ 5PM-10PM. Realistic SPC D1 Marginal risk. No thread at this time cause probably too small an area of coverage but potential exists per modeling of a few big storms w hail. Dies out near NYC around 9-10P. 2) Heat Waves and fairly large QPF (iso 6") coming to some areas, with the bigger qpf threats 5th through at least the 14th; and 90F begins in parts of our area next weekend (7th) and it too can be multiple heat waves or singular persising through at least the 14th. Pattern: Sharpening meridional pattern develops this week as the WAR builds westward in response to a closed low aloft attempting to form in the Ohio Valley. The band of high PWAT (near 2") and intermittent heavy rains just southeast of our subforum attempts to to develop west. NAEFS starts this e LI early this week while most modeling tends to wait til the 5th or after. Will rereview daily and kind of wait till it becomes more certain a a very small part of the NYC subforum will receive 6" in the first half of the month. The way it looks to me: above normal rainfall is almost certain these next two weeks for parts of our area. Spatial coverage and where are TBD. This includes marginal severe weather threats Thursday onward. CAPE grows considerably next weekend and seems to hang around week two. Good news for keeping it lush around here. 746AM added the NAEFS prob of above normal temps week two of August--- pretty high confidence. We'll see how long this high confidence might persist?

Summarizing: 3rd wettest July on record at CP, (generally top 10 NYC metro-least on parts of LI), and cooler than normal. How was the severe events count vs normal (just use as best can near NYC, or maybe SVR/FF issuances)? Initial thread issuance missed the overall heat expectation-which did not occur. 749AA: added percent of normal qpf for July as of 7/30.

Little bit but not on NJ. Eating lobster. Needed time to unwind, even supposedly retired. Natures watering has made for fantastic gardens

Here are snippets of 2"+ rainfall this afternoon-eve.

Agreed and warming above normal... it's potentially threatening for those few that get bombed with 6"+ rainfall in August's first two weeks. I see a separate thread evolving but no timE to fully eval til Sunday,

I've added the Wednesday afternoon update from SPC. My focus is basically along the warm front-triple point wherever that traverses. CAPE and wind field/shear is good enough for iso SVR up to I84 late Thu afternoon-evening but I'm thinking more favorable zone is near and south of I78 in NJ-PA. Nevertheless, started a thread due to SPC outlooks, some of modeling dumping 1.5-2" of rain in 6 hours especially in se NYS/n NJ and ne PA. I won't be able to comment much of this thread period so just stay with it patiently and keep up to date on SPC outlooks, NWS Watch/warning/stmts and of course the radar with your observed trends. Never know, there might be a later trend further North into NYS/CT. 12z/28 EC wind algorithm pegs s CT/LI with 40-50kt.

Not threading yet... will wait til late today. Could be tornadic near warm front. A couple of models have very heavy rain near a triple point and so its a concern, especially NJ and maybe LI? Have seen the wind fields. Don't like some of the instab parameters. Need to rereview with 12z/28 guidance.

Wantage NJ 0.48" rainfall so far since ~550P Tue and beneficial. Plenty of thunder since 6P, still here currently at midnight.

Wantage had G35 MPH 614P, 0.26" in that storm, and about 4 mi away, pea sized hail at ~620PM.

Just got back senior softball and saw the watch in our northern part of the forum... I can see something gusty 40 kt near and n of I84 but for now not threading, since its a small part of the forum, a bit shakey and pretty quick. Just hope we all along I84 get some rain.,

Understood regarding 8/10 uptick too soon... so the following will probably mean the GEFS is outlier and not reliable. fwiw... 12z/27 GEFS continues warming above normal 500MB heights ~Aug 5 ne USA and gets it going good by the 10th. Also continues two members of a TC beginning 8/10 and advances to near 70W off the E coast. Two members is few and considered outlier, so this may be premature for the Atlantic Basin, as briefly discussed in early MJO/K Wave posts.

12z/27 GEFS continues warming above normal 500MB heights ~Aug 5 and gets it going good by the 10th. Also continues two members of a TC beginning 8/10 and advances to near 70W off the E coast. Two members is few and considered outlier, so this may be premature for the Atlantic Basin.

A copy from this morning July: The 00z/27 GEFS Aug 10 spaghetti shows just two members with a tiny closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. That for me is the first modeling admission that the Atlantic Basin may be getting ready to fire. Overall it looks to me like it's trying to warm up after the 5th, and especially the 10th onward as the Western Atlantic Ridge builds west and/or strengthens,. That should lead to Bermuda high dominance for us in week two August and maybe beyond?

First (00z/27) GEFS sign of something significant in the Atlantic Basin. Just two members with a closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. It's a start. Might be a tad early? but it's better than nothing - if you're looking for TC's in the Atlantic. The WAR via GEFS modeling is westward building beginning the middle of next week and more consistently, Aug 10 and beyond. Don't know for sure. Your's to flesh out via tropical signals.

Nothing for me to confidently post a useful thread through Aug 10. Today's D! by SPC looks reasonable to me for late today to our N and NW. I did add the 00z/27 GEFS Aug 10 spaghetti showing just two members w a tiny closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. That for me is the first modeling admission that the Atlantic Basin may be getting ready to fire.

I have nothing to hang a thread upon through Aug 10. Maybe after Aug 10 it will start warming consistently above normal. I did see the early afternoon update MARGINAL Risk by SPC into the northern part of our subforum for Tuesday evening. For now, am not highlighting via a thread. Will take another look Tuesday morning.

Few small cells developing at 250PM but will not thread this afternoon-eve. This coming week: Definitely a Thursday of interest but would like another look (00z/26 cycle) before setting up... and may delay that til I see the D3 from SPC Tuesday morning. Enough wind and modeled instab for a possible slice of svr through the NYC suforum. am offline 330P-10P

only.02 in Wantage early today. NO SPC upgrade in their 846AM D1 update. No thread from myself on this potential.

As of 835A EDT/25...NAEFS shows no OVERALL dramatic week-two warmup east of the Rockies and the Atlantic Basin shows basically nil in the 00z/25 ensembles through 16 days. Long ranging is difficult (beyond a week) and our thoughts on the modeling interactions can sometimes go awry when the models of one global factor (oscillation) or another unexpectedly changes. Maybe in our lifetimes that there will be new discoveries resulting in improved seasonal outlooking out to 6 months, beyond historic trends in climate - referencing in particular the trend of our slowly warming climate. August is going to be an interesting test here in the northeast... will try to remember to review at the end of the month. Based on the many prior projections in June-July, I anticipate something is going to adjust the pattern enough to reduce the bore factor, add heat and qpf later in August. In the meantime, having fun today.