wdrag
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WXunderground. 52-56 MPH on BID. will add graphic soon. Also 44017 s of MTK gusts 43 kt and increasing. Mesonet gusts e LI are getting into the mid 30s now.
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So we will by 2PM know how we stand on wind and power outages, initially. Then dealing with pockets of 30-40 kt gusts during the night, high terrain NNJ/se NYS with weakened root systems could add to the total power outages. My concern, as many, is the additional 2 to possibly 12" of rain in our subforum by late Monday night. My focus continues NNJ/ne PA/Catskill region where I think we pound tonight and Monday morning with widespread 3-7" isolated 10". If this occurs as I anticipate, has to result to in moderate or greater stream flooding, some small fast responding streams with bridge washouts/road closures ne PA, NNJ, se NYS. I've added previous week rain departure which to me focuses, most favorable flood area ne PA, nNJ. Also some FGEN guidance that I like which is verifying nicely. See 11z radar today and the expected shift north with interim guidance not shown. SPC HREF max amounts axis shown as well as the HRRRX max rainfall axis (single member).
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PRE:? I don't think there is much support for a pre. Instead the driver is the PW axis, convergence in the flow. To me this storm looks to be a major problem--especially since so much se flow aloft already. The combined power outages, and 2 to as much as 10" of rain by Tue in much of the forum (least should be extreme e LI?). Thinking areas with road closures due to flooding, trees down. Power outages very-very inconvenient, esp Tue-Fri where-ever they continue when the HI rises into the 90s. That's when I might bend the rules and issue heat advisories for lower than normal criteria, presuming 1/4 of the area is still without power mid and late week (the power outage coverage is somewhat uncertain). I wouldn't rule out power outages in se NYS and nw NJ, though the focus is CT/LI. Finally, if the 00z/21 HPCHREF continues the 10-12" 48 hour max near i78 extreme w NJ, ne PA, then that will become the focus area for max rainfall as it probably pounds in pockets of NNJ, ne PA Sunday night due to FGEN on w-sw side of the low level center.
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Thanks, glad you wrote wherever you are in se NYS. I now think I understand why NHC-WPC did what they did for the 5A advisory. SPC HREF (8 member ensemble-i didn't check the individual members) from the 00z/21 cycle. Have added MAX rainfall potential through 00z/23 ((Monday) and also the HRRRX guidance of 80M winds and max gust POTENTIAL near the proposed 16z landfall and also late Sunday wraparound. If the 12z models trend slightly east, my guess is NHC will follow suit via their consensus and statistical model applications. What I'm seeing is a good chance of 40-55kt gusts even into far nw NJ, and look at the wrap around for southern LI late Sunday afternoon. Now the questions to me are, not so much intensity but track. IF it shifts east, all this would be a little east. Probably my last post til about 230P. In the post below you see the spotty 10" in se PA. I accidentally reversed the 80M wind forecast (late day atop the ~16z landfall). Just use the legends and time.
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Quick look after getting up at 6A: My guess is future tracking of Henri will need to be slightly east of the 5A advisory... as said above somewhere east of ISP to near BID. HRRR has shifted east and the 06z GEFS is definitely east of it's 00z version. i have no changes in thoughts updated yesterday. Just don't know how far west the envelope of R+. 641A/21.
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Added the 18z/20 HRRR wind gusts for 10A Sunday and also the total QPF. HRRR, EC and GGEM will need to trend east to avoid 'pockets' of damaging wind and serious flooding.
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HRRR is my baseline for 12z Sunday... we'll seeif it ends up much further east over BID?, or somewhere between. These are the 48 hr gusts of the 12z op HRRR for 12z Sunday. LOTS of room for error. Follow NHC-NWS.
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Been playing catchup on the thread title, so as not to be hyping too soon but I think it's come time to adjust closer to the expected projected rarity for parts of our subforum. Details TBD. ' 333PM Friday about 33 hours after issuance. Changed title to Moderate - MAJOR impacts, tags changed from tropical weather to hurricane gusts, heavy rain changed to flooding rains, RC and CF remain as they were It is becoming more apparent via modeling through the 12z/20 cycle, tho follow NHC, that this storm wants to turn northwest and make landfall anywhere between Block Island to Sandy Hook. Where and intensity? IFFFF Henri still passes east of Montauk, that will be fortunate for LI/CT. Follow NHC, and updated collaborated models and experienced statistical output of Tropical verification. Strongest gusts and largest waves & storm surge should be east of the center on the Atlantic side of the the storm, but beware all the east and northeast facing inlets LI Sound. RC obviously dangerous, and possibly even for experienced surfers. SHOULD BE ZERO casualties due to RC and high Surf. There is enough info out there now that asks us be smart about living safely. Wind: potential from a combination of squall gusts 40 (to possibly ~ 65kt) and preceding heavy rains near and east of the center track, to uproot and snap fully leaved trees, with 'potential' for long duration power outages. Therefore east of the center track, charge your phones, have fuel ready for generators (outdoor exhaust only) and maybe rent a couple of movies since along and east of the center internet connectivity may be lost. TOR (s): maybe? mainly northeast quad of Henri Sunday morning. Rainfall: Looks like 3" near and west of the center of passage, but pockets of surprise amounts elsewhere in the interior? Max by Tuesday in the lingering weakened remnant state??? Maybe isolated 10" somewhere??? Coastal Flooding: dependent on timing with the high of the tide cycles this weekend. This will be a pretty big storm, with varying impacts. Worthy of monitoring updates and being cautious about outdoor activity late Saturday-Sunday.
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We are now almost to a point where you have to consider blended model arc winds and add 15% for the gusts. All the west intense modeling with fully leaves trees is big damage. Need to see models ratchet down and further east. Won’t be able to add much cogent comment for a few hours
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fwiw... we're only 60 hours out on this storm. Impacts loom large Sunday...you don't want the NAM/further west Hurricane solutions to verify in our subforum... would mean days-possibly weeks of power outages, no matter the flood results. So, root for east and less intense. I'm not a TC specialist but in my opinion trends need to shift weaker/further east to spare LI/CT. (also am not focusing outside our subforum).
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Am going to let this play out between NHC/NWS and ourselves. Adjusted the title at 503A today. Not going to hammer wind yet but 'potential' exists for hurricane force gusts Sunday LI/coastal CT and so this storm should be monitored. Model trends last 24 hours west, through the 06z/20 cycle. Have a day!
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You all have it covered. I'll toss out my own confidence tomorrow on various aspects. On the rain: I know there's probably aloft of doubt, but somewhere in the FAR nw sector of the entire upper low will probably see 3-5" of rain from FGEN/nose of the 850 moisture transport. Catskills have been targeted previously but could occur anywhere in NJ/NYS, separate from the TC envelope of R+, wherever that might be. Upslope-Low lvl convergence along a possible trough would be of assistance to thi kind of yield. This to me looks sort of like a winter storm moving North to e LI or se New England, stalling then drifting east. I like the inflow for big rain. I may have hit the coastal flooding a bit too hard for our area but need to wait out more details for a day or two. Have a night.
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Well, Fred did come up through the ne USA with spotty 4-5" rains in e PA, lso n Central CT with little or no rain se of I95. Iso svr occurred last night in our area with best SVR apparently just w in e PA including an EF1. So my short summary includes: CoCoRaHs 1 day in the CT part of our subforum (I know most think HFD belongs to the New Eng group but our subforum map includes up to the CT RVR). Plus the 1 day Radar-sensor totals that are smoothed. Please use the Legend for amounts.
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504AM update on Friday (24 hours after initial issuance). Withdrew from the title INDIRECT. --- 333PM Friday about 33 hours after issuance. Changed title to Moderate - MAJOR impacts, tags changed from tropical weather to hurricane gusts, heavy rain changed to flooding rains, RC and CF remain as they were It is becoming more apparent via modeling through the 12z/20 cycle, tho follow NHC, that this storm wants to turn northwest and make landfall anywhere between Block Island to Sandy Hook. Where and intensity? IFFFF Henri still passes east of Montauk, that will be fortunate for LI/CT. Follow NHC, and updated collaborated models and experienced statistical output of Tropical verification. Strongest gusts and largest waves & storm surge should be east of the center on the Atlantic side of the the storm, but beware all the east and northeast facing inlets LI Sound. RC obviously dangerous, and possibly even for experienced surfers. SHOULD BE ZERO casualties due to RC and high Surf. There is enough info out there now that asks us be smart about living safely. Wind: potential from a combination of squall gusts 40 (to possibly ~ 65kt) and preceding heavy rains near and east of the center track, to uproot and snap fully leaved trees, with 'potential' for long duration power outages. Therefore east of the center track, charge your phones, have fuel ready for generators (outdoor exhaust only) and maybe rent a couple of movies since along and east of the center internet connectivity may be lost. TOR (s): maybe? mainly northeast quad of Henri Sunday morning. Rainfall: Looks like 3" near and west of the center of passage, but pockets of surprise amounts elsewhere in the interior? Max by Tuesday in the lingering weakened remnant state??? Maybe isolated 10" somewhere??? Coastal Flooding: dependent on timing with the high of the tide cycles this weekend. This will be a pretty big storm, with varying impacts. Worthy of monitoring updates and being cautious about outdoor activity late Saturday-Sunday. ---- Below from Thursday 5AMish 8/19/21 Follow NHC and NWS collaborated guidance on the path and impacts of Henri upon our NYC subforum. Astronomiically higher than normal tides combined with some onshore flow and building seas should result in pockets of significant coastal coastal flooding this weekend. Presuming the direct path of Henri remains e of LI, we are probably spared a tide cycle of major coastal flooding. Vulnerable regions to typical minor coastal flooding should monitor NWS statements for an event that may be larger than the typical minor events encountered through the year Rip Current: Appears to me difficult to avoid the risk of dangerous rip currents this weekend. What might be good for surfers as exposed Atlantic shores coastal waves build to 6 feet, will be life threatening for most, if not all swimmers. Follow NWS and local official guidance including that of life guards. Heavy rain: The combination of a trough(s) extending northwest of Henri and PWAT nearing 2" again, may develop pockets of intense slow moving showers well northwest of Henri's passage. There could be isolated 3" amounts in our NYC subforum. Henri winds: 34 KT gusts probably remain east of our subforum but follow NHC guidance. 19/457AM
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Well, I think we now know Fred remnant moisture and potential for squalls, will cross our area, Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Iso 5+ probably west of our subforum. Gusts are modeled by the 12z/17 EC, HRRR and HRRX of 25-35 kt (have seen iso 40+ but in the Poconos, sometime later Wednesday night> SPC as of this afternoon has a marginal risk for us. No big deal but it is decaying TC (Fred) related. The first shot of heavy qpf (Tuesday) apparently will have occurred n DE/s PHL area and spotty elsewhere e PA, which also reduces potential for iso 5+ in our subforum. 329P/17
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Some guidance on Fred remains. This thread remains viable for spotty 5+ by Fri night. Added 00z/16 EC EPS 850 wind showing a nice pocket of convergence southerly flow near LI Thursday, also the 09z/16 EC OP with two PW pools near 2". One approaching NYC Tue-Tue night and the second Fred infusion 24 hours aft, which arrives Thu and only slowly departs Fri or Sat. Also added the 00z/16 EC OP 850Vort, which shows a sewd extending lobe from possible decaying FRED 850 MB center near BFD later THU, down to nw NJ. Going to rain. How much and where...please follow NWS WPC which now had 1.5" in the western part of subforum by Fri eve.