Jump to content

wdrag

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,483

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Thank you very much! So, then i should reconfirm CP has never recorded two successive months of 10+"?
  2. wdrag
    Quick post to confirm: I think Bluewave or maybe Don posted this. ONLY two successive months for CP 10+" are March-April 1983?? Once I know that, i can set up a tiny challenge with no financial reward. Thanks, Walt
  3. wdrag
    The radar post at about 6am lends some credence to the variable banded amounts southern Li. Eventually in your lifetime modeled banded rainfall will be even more accurate.
  4. wdrag
    The map ranged 22-23 does include Sat eve since the 34 hrs ampunt dated the 22nd began at sunrise the 22st. Those totals are not all inclusive but reasonable
  5. wdrag
    Hope you're right.
  6. wdrag
    For what it's worth, the Op single member 12z/23 GFS has two opportunities for tropical rainfall connections. The Baha modeled TC arriving here or south of here around Sept 1? and the consistently cyclically modeled Sept 6-8 TC event. Long ways to go and not spending any time on confidence except to note, existence of two MODELED events around the first week of Sept. What actually happens here could easily be NIL.
  7. wdrag
    Can Central Park finish August with 10"+?. over-under for 10"+ CP in August 2021? Not a gimme... IF i've read the data correctly. NYC at 2PM/23 is 9.65". Not setting up a wager but this could be interesting leading up to Sept 1. Shower risk yes, but no guarantee from me that CP sees 0.36" more between 2P today and the end of the month, unless maybe this afternoons convection ends this bit of fun. In the meantime: I've added some final CoCoRAHS maps for the past 24 (endings 23rd) and 48 hours (13z 22nd-23rd combined) Verifying: I think I'd give an overall Moderate impact event. We fortunately missed 50 KT gusts (and associated power loss) and the CF was also apparently significantly less. The rainfall in broad generalities was pretty big, with a fairly high impact band (s) NYC--along I80 NJ into ne PA. HPC HREF did a consistently good job with the QPF and the Hurricane Models I think outperformed most if not all the typically reviewed Extra Trop models both mesoscale and global.
  8. wdrag
    Am I correct??? CP now at 9.51 for the month with their 0.93” at 12z on the 6 hr ob???? We do have a chance of 10+ for August.
  9. wdrag
    A quick post: CoCoRAHS 1 day rainfall and 2 day. Click each map to view in greater clarity-detail. Thanks.
  10. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part) in extreme nw NJ. 5.10" since 9PM/21, includes 4.1 yesterday most of which feel between 6P and 9P/22. For an early look 8AM/22 to 4AM/23...radar multi sensor rainfall...conservative for sure but the idea of max axis. I say give the SPC HREF some props, as well as sometimes the HRRR, often the HRRRX, and even the GGEM tho it was wayyyy off on tracking Henri. I'll add a very general wrap on the storm and CoCoRAHS 2 day acscums, probably this evening around 9P>
  11. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 3.46" today and 3.91 storm total in about 24 hrs.
  12. wdrag
    Two 7's in here, just a quick scan...
  13. wdrag
    Yes...calender day. Wantage NJ, this part now going up over an inch/hr with real rate 2.5"/hr and no thunder. 2.96 for the day so far.
  14. wdrag
    Folks: Here's some daily rainfall as of 515PM for today only.... nothing from yesterday. Many 3-4.5". I am thinking the 3-7" iso 10" nw NJ ne PA/se NYS may be too conservative. I think we have a dire situation for those with basement flood problems, & that there will be road and bridge washouts, somewhere between I-80 and I84. Doesn't mean it will happen but I do not like what is going on, to escape problems. Follow NWS warnings including river stage forecasts. The Ensembles were woefully underdone and that's why I think some of the large stream forecasts appear too me to be too conservative.
  15. wdrag
    Might this be an interesting first half of September for late season heat and mid season Tropical cyclones into the NYC area??? Have even less clue about the latter half of September. Modeling does imply a warm first week of September, with a weakness in the Gulf States. That weakness is possibly related to tropical cyclones trying to run northward into or toward the the Gulf Coast states, and then find the weakness in the broad coast-coast southern USA 500MB ridge, tending to head northeast along or the interior of the East Coast. How far north might they travel, if this implied pattern is generally correct? Applied the NOAA.GOV CPC week 1-4 forecasts issued the 20th-22nd, and the September update from 8/15, as well as the 12z/22 GEFS 500 mb members, and 12z/22 NAEFS mean sfc temperature departure from normal for the period Aug 30-Sept 6. This does not mean NYC is heading for possibly another 10" month, but does suggest we're in a pattern that favors normal or above normal both for precip/temp this September in our NYC subforum. Long ranging beyond a week or two is not easy, and so this topic starter is just that... a tease of implied potential that can become wrong. MJO forecasts were not attempted to be applied.
  16. wdrag
    12z/22 HPC HREF I80 north and to the Ct River. Been in the model for 3 consecutive runs. LONG ways to go on this rain event.,
  17. wdrag
    Last comments til possibly tomorrow morning, Henri passage e of MTK made it easier to either the storm. Winds may be a little less than advertised near the center but it isn't done quite yet (backside southwester this afternoon?) . Power outage map reflects recent upticks RI/CT, but good that our subforum doesn't have to deal. There will always be critics. They don't get paid to protect. It seems that the GFS/HWRF etc were best on tracking Henri, but horrendous on qpf. Rainfall next 18-30 hours hopefully works out less. Seems to be a slight northward shift in modeled max axis...but still focuses in se NYS NJ/PA border.
  18. wdrag
    IMO, Henri passed WEST of BID, by not too far, maybe a couple miles? Max wind at BID was about 48KTS (~55 MPH), but I saw 68 MPH (59kts) on the BID wx underground sensor.
  19. wdrag
    Stretching FGEN rain now evident wow from LI through I78-I80 region into ne PA. When this system stalls for 6-12 hours, efficient 1.8" PW should yield quite a bit. Not checking amounts too much til 5P. I'm not studying this enough to pinpoint but the radar tells the story as moisture - rain rolls west from CT/LI into the qstry stretch zone of NNJ.
  20. wdrag
    BID... pressure bottoming out and wind turning more easterly. Also s part of BID winds have decreased below 20 kt.
  21. wdrag
    fwiw..just click the map of interest for greater clarity of detail..that said for us older eyes.
  22. wdrag
    Here's some CoCoRahs data for the past 24 hours. Also 68 MPH at about 945A at BID WXUNDERGROUND.
  23. wdrag
    at least 63 MPH recently. coming up.
  24. wdrag
    Operational since about 850AM. Wind gusts close to the wx underground.
  25. wdrag
    Max gusts BID now 55-61MPH
×
×
  • Create New...