wdrag

12z EC, as mentioned two posts by Stormlover, EC a slam but not necessarily a dunk, yet. Would like the GGEM to come north. Also the 12z/28 EC op rudimentary wind gusts of 40-50 kt may end up lower than modeled, ala Henri. Does look interesting for our area along the lines of 3-6" FFA, FFW, G 35kt. ON a PRE: IF this slows down it's track toward us, then I'd go for a PRE. Right now, need to wait.

Also, folks don't like to be wrong and get over amped. (unreliable). 16z/28 WPC average qpf forecast. New 12z/28 GEFS confirms.

When I get home I’ll comment further including a graphic but WPC with its 1525z Ish D4-5 issuances has virtually all of our forum 1.5 to 3”. I agree with this. I think you’ll see the media etc start the awareness later today. To me, If we get a PRE, Then our problems will be further magnified. I just don’t have an answer on a PRE. In the meantime, spot 6” appear realistic. Can’t post much today. More tomorrow. Walt

CoCoRAHS data at 922AM this morning. Some pretty good gradients between NIL and 1"+.

Mon and possibly Tue seem to have decent chance of 90+ EWR. Also, I see a potentially quick heating up around the 3rd-4th, albeit brief), though it may remain just in upper 80s???

512P/3 hitttled topic header to the 5th-6th. Further topic update Saturday morning. NORA's life as TC will end as it nears AZ late next week, but its vorticity and PWAT infusion can be tracked across northern Rockies then northern USA, near and north of I80 (near and north of latitude 40N). The associated 500MB wind max appears to track across our area late on the 4th, but the moisture infusion is stretched to possibly lay out arross our area the 5th-6th. If the cold front stalls in our area, then the moisture release could be of 3" interest. Just need to wait a few more days to figure out if its just 1/4" convective showers or a stripe of 3" rainfall somewhere in our subforum. If the front does not stall passing through our area, then the impact will be nominal-all of this presuming the model track of NORA's remains is reasonably accurate. So, am not guaranteeing big impact but I do think this merits monitoring in our wetter than usual summer pattern. IF this does come into better focus as a significant player here, headline and tags will be upgraded.

Thursdays thread continues. I probably should hit the title harder but for now... I am expecting 3-6" across at least a part of the area with FF watches, and more warnings if more than 3" occurs. Still unclear to me whether IDA passes north of I84 or just s of I78. I think we've opened ourselves to a PRE Tuesday evening the 31st if the front stalls just south of us near I78-I95-476 with the primary rainfall in a 6 hour period Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. This I'm pretty sure is going to be a problem storm for us due to the antecedent wet conditions. Squall gusts of 35 kt possible. There is a low chance that IDA closes off as slower moving upper low just south of us Thursday the 2nd. Latest EPS (00z/28) and GEFS (06z/28) have widespread 1-2" 24 hr qpf across our area by 18z Thursday. More attempts at info will post Sunday.

NORA thread starts by 9AM Sat 8/28. Impact may be low but if the front drags its way through, more important impact.

August CP total 10.32 through 8AM/28. Just so you know how difficult it is... Newark T past 24 hours, so far. So, I know some want to state it was a gimme... but not in my mind. Convective qpf has very large gradients over just a 1000-5000 feet. Now, how much more before Sept 1? Please see IDA thread. I've added digital storm total data for this event through 606AM, and note the black areas of no qpf up against the rainy areas. To illustrate further, at 922AM I added the CoCoRAHS data...note in NNJ the 1.61" and the Trace very nearby. Click CoCoRaHs map for greater clarity.

NORA... think you may want to look at PW tracking, 850 vt tracking and just basic GFS QPF tracking of NORA's remains out of Baha. Looks like a CFP with decent amounts in the northeast around Sept 5-6??, a time when CF's tend to dry out as convective temps decrease.

Good Friday evening, No change in expectations on my part for IDA, despite12z/27 EPS and WPC shunting to our south. Too much RRQ of the upper level jet to our ne... I think this could be nice event up here but need more agreement of the models. Room for error continues but no change for me.

So all who had it as a gimme and or 1-4" etc...you're winners. I'll check some more data tomorrow. So, what this means to me... we've had a unique two consecutive months in our NYC CP history, seldom seldom recording two 10+'s in a row. Can our two month total exceed 1983's two consecutive months (see top of thread) 24.55"? Need 3.16" or thereabouts. Finally, long-long-long shot, but might we try for a third totally unique 3 consecutive months. Seems like we have to get a dose of IDA (RRQ of se Canada trough and inflow at 850 from IDA). That could be in the 3-6" range... (or miss us?). I may be starting a NORA contribution thread tomorrow, as I'm pretty sure RH is going to come out of Baha and cross the Rockies and join an approaching CF here ~ the 5ht or so. Then after the 7th??? There may be more? Repeating trough looks okay to our west if we get some more TC up w of 80W Longitude.

0.08 so far today at CP ending 20z/27. that raises the monthly total to 9.73 and only 0.27" more by Sept 1 too exceed 10". Aint lookin good for the NO's like myself on this one.

No change on IDA, tho impacts may delay day or two in some of the modeling??? I just don't know. Waiting it out. NORA has an increasing chance of some contribution to rain here, ~ the 5th or a bit later (examine ensembles). Additionally, if IDA delays enough, the two TC's could combine. Lot's of uncertainty on timing both.

Since PHI issued their FF Watch yesterday afternoon, guidance is still vulnerable to 2" one hours rains, have opened a thread for commented event info. My thinking is heaviest will occur in the interior of NJ; but NYC nor sw CT, extreme se NYS are not out of the potential. My guess is that if the region north of I78 is to FF, it will probably have occurred by 9AM Saturday with two possible bands, one late this afternoon-eve, and another near dawn Saturday. How much of this heavy convection drifts over into NYC is questionable but t's not impossible to see 1-2" in parts of the 5 boroughs. Maybe the most favored areas are near I78 and possibly the hilly areas of far northern NJ. In any case, convection could impact the evening commute and wet microburst severe wind is not out of the question late today.

So the( probable) IDA thread has started, taking that TC related event off the Sept thread. Now we look to a Nora (Pac Bsin) contribution???? around the 5th as the modeling continues to infuse a tad bit of PW moisture across the the Rockies into the Plains and eventually our way??? And then another, this time Atlantic Basin TC might be of local interest here around the 10th. Both of these are a bit of stretch but am monitoring Septembers first two weeks as a period of TC interest.

650A Tuesday Aug 31: adjusted headline with mdi-iso Major impact esp NJ/LI, Dropped PRE since no TC and therefore no criteria. 6AM Sunday August 29 thread title update. Added general 2-8" rainfall, added possible PRE, and withdrew the ? of direct or indirect. Description of increasingly likely impacts around 7AM Sunday. This issuance makes the presumption that IDA will be our next Tropical Storm and move north into the Gulf states, shearing out into the Northeast or mid Atlantic states 500MB confluence zone next week. For now the risk of all the tags above is low, but worthy of monitoring. It's possible our first rain (if indeed IDA spreads rain into our NYC subforum?) might arrive late on August 31st. Think at this point, antecedent soil saturation and streamflow conditions will assist determining whether there will be any renewed stream flooding, if indeed IDA does dump a stripe of 3-6" of rain in a portion of our subforum. Chance of 35+ KT wind gusts is also low with the main contribution of IDA, rainfall, to Septembers total. Tides are fairly low so am not anticipating any problem with tides, at least not at this Thursday August 26th thread initiation. Attached the 12z/26 GEFS 500 MB membership for 12z Wed Sept 1 to show the confluence zone and also the 12z/26 24 hr qpf from the EPS and GEFS. For now these show a glancing blow to our south with a complete subforum no rain miss still possible, but not likely. The WPC Day 6-7 forecast issued 1622z/26 confirms the potential for at least some rain.

Ida/Julian: No named storm yet heading for GMEX and no thread at this time but it now reverses with the potential minor Baha influence, with a much faster first three days of Sept influence here (unless stays just south), and the Baha minor contribution leaking across the northern Rockies toward the 6th-7th. The latter continues to be a 5% risk, imo. Ida/Julian whichever it is (competition first named with the mid Atlantic), can be monitored for a possible rainfall contribution up here. I won't be adding much more to this until Friday morning.

Good Thursday morning, WPC has almost 1.5" NYC by the end of the month. SPC HREF tries for Friday. HRRR is not optimistic through 06z/Sat. Other 00z/26 models including UK/EC struggle to get to 1/4". I didn't check ens but am sure they're over the .35" limit. From an EC K index perspective, it's more or less we get it late today or we have to get late Sunday or Monday. The probably soon to be named Caribbean-GMEX TC influence arrives too late for August. Let's see how this evolves. 513A/26

Due to time constraints here at home... will hold NO, but completely understand trends are for more than .35". I do know point specific qpf is exceedingly difficult to predict and that you can 1"/mi or greater gradients (MKE FF 1987), so unless it's a well defined slow moving front or an area of low pressure passing along or just s of I80, I get a little reluctant to express HIGH confidence. Seven days is a long time but we're now through day 1. Maybe we can end this tomorrow or Friday, but if we don't by Sunday night, then I think the uncertainty increases a bit. I as many others are rooting to accomplish the rarity of two successive I've attached CP August 2021. First 9 days less than 0.35, and ditto 12-20. So it does happen. In this pattern, will it again?

Am unskilled at analogs. I sort of stood by... had my doubts. So hoping you're right about 44, but have no idea. Let's review at the end of September... just as we do all the topics. Sure continues to look good for the first two weeks of Sept. Eric Blake SR MET at NHC just tweeted on the coming Ida or Julian, whatever it's named for GMEX. Modeling continues large and strong (GFS-GGEM especially).

Am not yet starting a thread for what will either be Ida or Julian (possible Center trap Atlantic TC naming may compromise the probable GMEX TC). However, multiple indications are that the GMEX TC will spew moisture - potentially a period of heavy weather into the Ohio Valley-mid Atlantic region between the 4th-8th. Whether it remains just s of our NYC subforum is in question. Unamed and too early. Also, fwiw, and a remote possibility of minor RH infusion is what may happen with the eventual probable development of the eastern Pacific storm near Baha (Nora?). Some of RH might break through the southwest USA and curl east late next week as well....again that's just a tiny chance (my estimate is 5 or 10%). 25/631A

Maybe the odds are tilting toward a YES? Depends in part what happens between Fri-Sun of this weekend (27-29). Here's the new ensembled WPC outlook issued early this Wednesday morning.

We can still change thru 1159P Wednesday. I think this sort of fits the recovery period that so often occurs after big events. NAEFS was conservative...seeming to be 1/4" thru 8/31. However, and there is always a however :), may need to monitor tropical moisture peeling nwd-newd-then end from Baha and coastal Texas toward us ~8/31. Right now, I bank on that arriving just a little too late.

Virtually all of us are aware of our wet July August. CP is poised to exceed 10" of rainfall, for only the second time in its recorded history dating back to 1869. Despite the controversy involved with the CP rainfall data of 1983, the two successive month record stands alone, back to March-April 1983 and as Bluewave noted, EWR also exceeded. I've not checked any Cooperative program data from that time, but there may be other supporting information for the CP data. What date, if any, do you expect CP to exceed 9.99" this August? Closing date for your date prediction is 1159 PM Wednesday August 25. (no editing of your comment after calendar Aug 25) What do you win? NIX... except some back slaps from your American Weather friends. I'll start the ball rolling: Guessing will not exceed- certainly don't see this as a gimme, at least not yet (I can change my mind up to 1159PM tomorrow). So, this is an uncertain forecast-maybe not using the ensemble data to my best advantage but playing conservative, despite odds would say we should see normal 1 week qpf these last 7 days. Also, I can move this topic elsewhere if you wish... I just thought it meshes well with the events that have just passed, and possibly ahead in September. Added Bluewave post below... thank you for your work on this. The topic title was edited 8/28 in (parentheses) . Th