wdrag

No thread yet on a 3+" event for a portion of the subforum and spotty SVR. Right now, I think it's marginal but if we happen to get a meso low on the cold front Thursday night over NJ, then i think we'll have some non-routine heavier rains (3") and spotty damaging wind events.

7.73 as of 9A/22. No thread yet on a 3+" event for a portion of the subforum and spotty SVR. Right now, I think it's marginal but if we happen to get a meso low on the cold front Thursday night over NJ, then i think we'll have some non-routine heavier rains and wind events. Will rereview late today and early Thursday. For now, no go for me. Still a long long shot to get 10+ for the month at CP but a small chance. Axis of max bands next 48 hours, and any new rains on the 25th and 30th are uncertainties. 06z GEFS has temporarily lost the intensity of the weekend trough. So waiting this out.

.08 this eve. total for Sept 7.71. still a long ways from 10".

Hope but probably no cigar. Like seeing soo much s-se inflow into the front, implying lots of lift near the front Thursday. The slower it crosses NJ, the better. Also the secondary digging upper level trough late next weekend into the 30th is of interest but overall, the second batch probably not enough for a 10" Sept, yet not a zero chance.

Will look early Wed, at a possible SVR thread for Thursday. Usually need a secondary low on the front thru PA, s NYS. If that does not occur, QPF and associated SVR would probably be less than modeled. Have another great late summer day.

May not post much for a couple of days Allowing troughs and PW to come into better agreement think we need two events to get close? Have a day.

Looking ahead: 12z/18 EPS has noticeably more qpf than the GEFS for the entire subforum by the 25th and the EPS also has quite a bit of tropical near Bermuda around the 26th-27th, which is scarce on the 12z/18 GEFS. GEFS is not doing much with the subsequent 5H short wave troughs after the 23rd. The EPS may be a little abundant if the PW ends up less than 2" ~ the 23rd-always have to look at downside. Short wave does look like its neutral if not a bit negative coming across the mid Atlantic coast ~the 23rd. Could mean nice southerly inflow, spot severe associated with the sfc low?

So Odette formed but the scenario did not play out as i thought it might, instead smatterings here and there with bigger qpf NJ, e LI, DCA area. Might get a decent shower late today. Best chances to get decent amounts seem to be 22nd-23rd and somewhere around the 26th-28th. Seems like a long shot for 10", certainly longer shot than when presented in the originating thread but there are options for the necessary amounts. It seems like everything has to go right, including a sharper further south 500MB trough 22nd-23rd and ditto 26-28, both that might ingest some tropical moisture and focus low pressure just s of LI. For now, not holding my breath.

Been dissappointingly poor NYC area qpf past two days. Not much coming next two days...maybe we get lucky in the city and get a few hundredths. Appears two more sizable options left in the month, around the 23rd or thereabouts and then 26th-28th. One would think it will be tough to attain the 10" goal. We'll see.

Wantage NJ (this part) 1.02 since 9P/15. Decent rains interior se NYS, extreme nw NJ...1/2"-maybe 1.5"?

No SVR thread yet: looks too marginal except nw edge of the forum. IF this changes more favorable, will add on, or if it looks blatant on radar. For now, no thread on D1 severe. Regarding the Sept CP10". My goal by Sat evening is to see CP with new 0.40" by then (monthly total just over 8"). Then I think we still have a fading chance. IF CP has less than 0.20 by Saturday eve, think it will be much harder to exceed 10" this month. We have the tropical considerations after the 23rd to contend with and while the 500MB troughing is sharpening to our west on the 06z/15 GEFS, just too early for me to count on a big rain after the 23rd.

Will rereview 13z SPCD1 and the 12z HRRR, then probably start a thread for the D1 SVR risk.

Recurving but with possibilities. Just need to wait it out. We're talking 15 days away... UA pattern can change considerably by then.

Yes... Need to monitor. I'm pretty sure there will be a TC there, but whether it goes ballistic and or nears LI?? some of the modeling like this weekends possible Odette/Peter, heads east northeast before coming close enough to involve the mainland in its direct circulation.

Further wrap-up on the evening-overnight two bands of showers (First last evening was mainly PA/NJ/LI; second early today was NYS/CT). Click the maps for greater clarity. My last on this generally small event except axis of max rainfall. Still about 10,000 meters were without power this morning at about 7A, mainly Monmouth County NJ.

So, beyond what might happen Wed night as the front approaches, the Thu-Fri outcome might be as interesting. Decent s-se inflow into the remains of the frontal boundary, wherever it is stuck , which could be I95 to as much as ~80 NW of I95, and it may yield patches 1-3" rainfall. If the offshore low is named Odette, or Peter, then we might be looking at a PRE, especially Fri? Sketchy signals and nothing impressive so it's a low prob but for me worthy of monitoring modeling. Probably worth noting the dry extended forecasts for yesterday and this week have moistened. Not convinced yet, that Saturday morning is dry, and some action may be developing middle of next week.

CP 0.12 thru 5A today - 9/14, all of it late last eve. 7.63 for the month so far.

Good morning everyone, A brief model summary was provided last eve around 9P. Not much to rehash. Here's the storm damage reports as posted by the NWS thru 550A today. I'll add the CoCoRaHs summary sometime midday. Max qpf axis near the reports axis. CP 0.12 Wantage NJ 0.07. Click the map for greater clarity.

Wantage NJ: .02 so far. need to comfort our dog--- probably my last post til morning. Have a good night.

Added the 18z/13 NAM and even better, the 18z/13 HRDPS qpf. Purple gets you to 2". All this by sunrise Tuesday. HRDPS was very-very cyclically consistent in its previous 4 cycles for this going I80-I78 event. NAM was all over the place N and S.

Added the 18z/13 NAM and even better, the 18z/13 HRDPS qpf. Purple gets you to 2". All this by sunrise Tuesday.

Sampling of 1" amounts from wxunderground as of 910PM. nw NJ Belvidere to Hackettstown area. Think SPC did a very nice effort on picking this event out for PA/NJ, AND so did the GFS almost cyclically. EC had some nice high TT and the 18z/13 NAM was quite eyeopening for NYC and NNJ-still on trop tidbits.

NJWXNET

Rain has started Wantage NJ. Warnings down I80 and it looks like pretty decent rainfall headed for the city. Maybe it will reach 3/4"????

Nowcasting the the frontal boundary period of strong thunderstorms w heavy rain, lightnng strikes, hail, mainly along and south of I80 this evening. NYC seems to be on the north fringe but worthy of monitoring. There may be a second batch after 1AM Tuesday?