wdrag

Probably won't be around to keep up with anything w of NYC prior to 430P. Still seems like best chance for strong damaging storms and maybe a TOR is POU north... in other words, north of I84. However, the reality check is coming soon and so follow all NWS products. Thanks, Walt

MCD out since about 11A just w of the subforum.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=09&length=24&dim=1 click for water vapor

0752 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts and a marginal tornado threat are possible through the afternoon over portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified -- yet still progressive -- mid/upper-level pattern will affect the CONUS through the period. A deep trough -- initially located from far northern ON across the upper Great Lakes to AR -- will shift eastward to western QC, the inland Mid-Atlantic, the Carolinas, and GA by the end of the period. As this occurs, the basal shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery from western OH to the Mid-South -- will pivot northeastward and accelerate, reaching Lake Ontario, central PA and central VA by 00Z. This perturbation then will eject northeastward across QC and New England overnight while weakening, and while other, trailing shortwaves move through the base of the larger-scale trough. Synoptic ridging will cross the Rockies, while a sharp trough approaches the Pacific Northwest (but still offshore at 12Z tomorrow). At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from Lake Ontario across western NY, northwestern PA, WV, southwestern VA, to southern AL and the northwestern Gulf. By 00Z, the front should reach western New England, coastal NJ/Delmarva, the eastern Carolinas, and northern FL. By 12Z, the cold front should be over CONUS land only in ME and central FL, offshore elsewhere. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... A low-CAPE/strong-shear convective event is expected in the Northeast today, with the delineation between threat categories realistically fuzzier than can be depicted by a sharp categorical contour line on a map. A frontal/prefrontal band of thick clouds and precip, with isolated embedded thunderstorms, is ongoing from portions of northern/western NY and Lake Ontario across western PA and WV to northeastern TN. Through the remainder of the morning and into early afternoon, convective organization and coverage each should grow, with a gradual increase of the severe-wind and tornado threat from initially marginal and very isolated nature now. The convective band will encounter a warm sector undergoing gradual destabilization, from both theta-e advection and muted diabatic heating. This will help to reduce already weak MLCINH and offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates just enough to support peak/ preconvective MLCAPE of 250-750 J/kg. Very long and somewhat curved low-level hodographs -- larger with northward extent -- may lead to 0-1-km and effective SRH each in the 150-250 J/kg range, amidst effective-shear magnitudes ranging from 45-50 kt in southern parts of the outlook to 55-60 kt in the north. This will support some storm-scale rotation -- be it discrete to semi-discrete supercells or line-embedded mesovortices. Overall severe potential should wane this evening as already weak low-level instability diminishes further.

Still looks to me as posted by SPC yesterday..most gusts under 40 knots but per their slight risk area, added this thread. HRRR suggests greatest threat of SVR that crosses into our subforum should be I84 northward. Please follow SPC outlooks/watches and NWS statements/discussions/warnings/reports.

Looked over some of the 00z-06z/15 models including some of the parameters that SPC and NWS review for svr prediction and no thread at this time, per a well summarized SPC D2 outlook. Marginal (so far) for svr, but gusts/a gust front will develop for our subforum between 3P-8P, west-east, with and ahead of the line of convection.. 45 MPH gusts seem likely but 55+ MPH much less likely. Will rereview Saturday morning for a possible short lead-time thread. The SPC D2 outlook in words below... Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a few wind gusts near severe levels will exist across portions of the Northeast and vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough will shift quickly across the eastern U.S. Saturday, with ridging to prevail upstream across the remainder of the country. At the surface, a sharp cold front -- progged to lie near or just east of the Appalachian crest at the start of the day -- clearing the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts by evening. By Sunday morning, the front will likely have moved entirely offshore, with the exception of South Florida and the Keys. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and into New England... It remains apparent that only minimal pre-frontal instability will be available across northeastern portions of the U.S. ahead of the approaching storm system, and as such, expectations are that potential for severe-caliber wind gusts will remain minimal/very localized. As strong ascent spreads across the area, focused along the front, showers and low-topped thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing, and should increase somewhat diurnally as what afternoon bolstering of CAPE will be possible, reaches its maximum. Strong flow aloft will support fast storm motions, and as such, gusty winds will be likely with the low-topped bands of convection. However, given the weak CAPE, degree of convective augmentation of suggests that most gusts should remain in the 35 to 45 MPH range. Any severe risk ongoing through the afternoon should diminish into early evening, due to diurnal stabilization effects.

Lots of wind in the profile... no thread from myself at this time. will rereview early Fri. Instability acceptable but not exceptional. My guess is isolated svr I95 northwestward. Will recheck Friday.

Have no access. Monitoring for a marginal wind event Sat aft or night but far too early. Hopefully someone else answered.

Let us remember for future non-automatic default to the EC/EPS as best.: GFS/GEFS prevailed as far superior to the EC/GGEM op runs in their greater than 3 day outlooks for this past weekends rain/drizzle with the main rain just a little offshore. Two-day CoCoRaHs weekend summary attached and for those who want to view it more clearly-just click the image. Nothing precip-wise/damaging wind seems threadablefor a while.

No thread this morning. 00z/7 GEFS trended a little wetter, the NAEFS and EPS about the same as yesterday... so not worth a thread unless this becomes a subtropical and comes due north. For now, conservative but monitoring. WPC has added a little more water to its weekend forecast for our area but not much. Op runs through 00z/7 with the exception of the EC are pretty benign. Looks to me like an inverted trough develops offshore Friday with low pressure moving north along it for awhile. EPS has pretty decent se inflow at 850MB with weaker upper level steering. Will we see a widespread moderate 1/4-3" rain sometime this weekend? or not... Right now forecasts are variable from nearly NIL to a decent event. Still worth monitoring til the EC and GGEM OPS keep it south of our subforum.

A small amount of tropical moisture infusion may be trending more likely here for Saturday-Monday? No thread yet, but 12z/6 EC op has about spot near 7" by Monday in ne NJ... and the GEFS 500 is looking more like the EC. The question how far north before pushing east Monday. Looks to me like an inverted trough develops offshore Friday with low pressure moving north along it for awhile. EPS has pretty decent se inflow at 850MB with weaker upper level steering. I'm not doubting the spots of very light qpf the EC has in parts of our area tonight through Saturday morning. Will we see a widespread moderate 1/4-3" rain sometime this weekend? or not... Right now forecasts are variable from nearly NIL to a decent event. I think this is still worth monitoring til the EC and GGEM OPS keep it south of our subforum.

So, the junk weather from mid afternoon Sunday into early today may abate a bit the next couple of days but should return this weekend. Here are the two day totals that incorporate Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Max 3" in Hartford County CT and the bulk of the 1+ near and north of I84. Click maps for greater clarity. Pattern suggests a few periods of drizzle interior NJ/NYS the next couple of days and potential for decent rain this weekend, probably closer to the coast for the weekend.

Good Tuesday morning all, I am looking to replace my Ambient WS1001. Dewpoint and raingage done. Suggestions welcome. Can spend $300-500 for a station will last me 3+ years and be equal or exceed my WS1001. Thank you in advance... will check back later. Walt 10/5/21

Hope no one will be surprised at spot 3" amounts by Noon Tuesday in parts of our NYC subforum. Clusters of slow moving (20-25 kt) heavy showers will be transiting east-northeast across the area beginning late this afternoon-evening, winding down Tuesday morning to spits. Rejuvenates I think Fri or Sat but that's more debatable due to the closed low in the south central USA timing itself into the northeast. Monitoring possible injection of additional moisture from the Bahamas disturbance by the weekend.

Sept worked out warmer and wetter than normal but no real HEAT to speak of. Onward.

Monitoring for a wet start and end to the week, with driest-rainfree odds strongest Wed-Thu. Overall the easy morning WPC 7 day qpf looks decent. Won't rule out spotty week long 5-7" amounts by Sunday evening in the NYC suforum. For now, consider it routine..am monitoring for the heavier amounts but not convinced enough for a thread. 00z/2 EPS is much wetter than the 00z/2 GEFS which has been constantly drier than the EPS.

I view (unfortunately) media is less about news now, and more about 'stories-drama'. Weather information and giving the viewer-listener what they need to make informed decisions is lacking. We (the presenter) boil it down too what we think is of essence, omitting some of the alternate possibilities, especially beyond 5 days. 06z GEFS is showing impressive positive anomalies of qpf for a 10 day period beginning the 3rd in the northeast. I can still see southward slippage, depending on northern stream into NNE and the location of the upper low between the Apps and Miss River. I do 'think' we're going to see some flooding rains (a couple of overlapped decent events) somewhere between the Ohio Valley and mid-north Atlantic. Edit add: also this seems to be without any tropical cyclone contribution (first two weeks Oct).

So, nothing yet, but am on the edge of another thread. This one like the 10+ Sept for longest monthly stretch of 10+, this one for 7 or 8+" of rain in October (teaming with the 3 prior months for a first time ever). Nothing in my stats on this but I think we're heading wet. It's not directly tropical related the first half of the month, more of a synoptic scale cool season batches of of heavy rain that may begin late this weekend through the 9th. The second half off the month might be tropical related---long-long ways to go to gain some confidence. I'll probably wait til Fri evening on this. I guess the only other thing i can say on this: These brief weather predicting icons of 5+ consec days of dry weather are unfair to the skill of our industry in the northeast USA. We're just not that good at predicting 5 gorgeous days in a row- barring a big anomalous stationary ridge aloft overhead.

Rechecked and deleted the post on much wetter than normal. I think we're headed the way but I put up the 12z/28 EPS ens 'control' and that won't work as ensemble. My error. Walt

I'm leaving this to our more informed mets-statisticians about the oscillation interactions.

Yea! Bluewave/Don et al must have some stats for us on what this might portend. Somehow, I always thing of going back to the means...ie, drying out below normal sometime ahead.

need 0.02 for 10, .03 for 10+ as of 1158AM. Let's see if they can do it?

Good Tuesday morning, Wantage NJ rolls of thunder since 650A, and now .06 in a few minutes ..big drops. Not threading but there could be isolated svr today via hail and marginal wind gusts, mainly afternoon and especially I78 south. I saw how last Saturdays rain just grazed e LI. Much less than I what I anticipated would occur with excellent weather prevailing NYC. This Wed or Thu might see a sprinkle into NYC? as the cold pool slides south; the EPS ensembles of last week out-performing the GEFS idea of possibly separating streams. My expectation is lots of afternoon cloudiness both days (5000-8000') Late weekend onward: threat of showery periods ensues as RRQ of the departing Maine trough interacts with central USA eastward moving shortwaves, enhancing WAA possibilities.

Probably correct. I still think modeling is separating streams. I think by tomorrow morning we'll know if the dry quiet is correct. Right now, I'm unconvinced.