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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Wont change title numb ens despite being close to that for just the first storm. I think I want to see what we have on the ground by 8P Tue before I 2" to the weekly total. I think we have our hands pretty full with Tuesday-Tuesday night.
  2. wdrag
    Rainfall with the warm front was generally 1/2" extreme north to nil extreme south. Have adjusted title rainfall up a touch to 2-5", iso 8" but that's it for me at this time. Wind I expect as previously noted. Best chance for damaging wind Tue night when the storm center and associated 70kt EPS ensembled jet sweep southwest for a while. 60 kt G seems reasonable for extreme e LI Tue night...the strongest out there.
  3. wdrag
    Davis is the standard... you have one of the best. I just didn't want to take that extra cash away from family. Also, I don 't like paying yearly subscription to share data. However, Davis is I think one of the best.
  4. wdrag
    I'll trust the rain and compare to nearby stations and cocorahs. Think I'll know more at 6A. Linquenda Dr. Beautiful up here - very very very fortunate. I do not want to be disappointed but facts are facts so, should know more by Sat night.
  5. wdrag
    Hi... will update OBS thread TITLE amounts, maybe around 8P as we get going. One thing am pretty sure of... we get big wind and power outages CT/LI and am staying with the near 70MPH gusts. More when I get a new handle on everything after a day of work, and installing (w Nick Stefano and excellent support from Weatherflow help desk) new weather station. Hopefully it does well.
  6. wdrag
    Completing the circle and closing (hopefully) my weather station change. Nick Stefano and Tempest Weather just gave me be their time and necessary guidance-assistance in setting up my new tempest weather station. I feel whole again after being without rain data for 3 weeks. I hope to produce some nice graphics for our group, once we get some data an'd it looks accurate. Tuesday should be a nice test. So I went with WeatherFlow because they are a very good company, they work with the NWS with instrumentation, which is used by the local offices and NHC. So I hope this works out well.
  7. wdrag
    520AM updated the dual storm thread with my interp of multiple guidance, seen through 5AM/25.
  8. wdrag
    Loaded is probably one of the best set of short term guidance we have. Note the 24 hour amounts ending 8PM Tue (general 2+) from the SPC HREF, and the MAX potential of 7-9". WPC risks of flooding seem a little low and conservatively too far east Tuesday. Marginal risk early Tue AM and then slight risk during the day. There should be some flood problems. Am pretty sure we'll see 40-50MPH gusts ridges of nw NJ/se NYS while the coast should see gusts 50 MPH except near 70 MPH e LI...most of this during the day Tuesday, possibly ly lingering into Tue eve. Looks like a little less wind when you get down to the s of I78 but stay tuned for updates. Difficult to believe we'll escape power outages, with most widespread seeming to focus southern C... LI. Isolated or scattered embedded thunder appears likely tonight and Tuesday. Result is a high impact event , at times, for travel Tuesday in the NYC subforum.
  9. wdrag
    Topic title amounts increased (conservatively I hope) this Sunday evening and have split out the OBS thread for the first storm (tonight-8A Wed). Lots of good modeling documentation-imagery has been added previously to this thread. Keep it going. I can't add much more with any confidence til 6A Monday. I'm still not sure where the worst of this will be, but if it were winter, this storm would be getting much more press with a massive snow storm axised 90 or more miles north of the 850 Low.
  10. wdrag
    This first event is slated mainly for Monday night-early Tuesday night but with a pulse of showers, some heavy occurring overnight Sunday night and potential for bands of high wind and or heavy rain remaining in the NYC subforum into early Wednesday, depending on the departure of the eventual nor'easter. Max gust for e LI may get close to 70 MPH with wind damage 'potential' of 50 MPH gusts s of I84 in CT into far se NYS through ne NJ. Fully leaved tree branches with potential for sodden ground uproots Tuesday due to heavy rainfall and the gusts should result in pockets of power outages from simply broken branches. If it looks extensive, we will update the topic title. Max rainfall seems to be targeting CT/se NYS/NYC metro-ne NJ but proximity of max inflow-moisture transport still showing modeling variability for the primary target. In any case... it appears likely that along and north of I78 there will be periodic showers overnight with new rainfall by sunrise ranging from a few hundredths to possibly 1". After a break Monday, bands of heavy showers should be developing north and northwest into the area Monday evening and slow their northwest to west progress Tuesday before turning southward later Tuesday night. By 8AM Wed, isolated 6" rains may have occurred with a general 1.5-3" in the subforum. FF potential while initially limited by recent dryness, the rainfall rates and amounts in banding will eventually determine where any FF potential will be realized-it's just too early to determine, as of this 720PM Sunday writing. Please follow all future NWS warnings/statements. Let's see what the OBS herein tell us about the modeling by Tuesday night. Edited title rainfall up from 1.5-4 iso 6, to 2-5, iso 8. Edited title at 1025A/26 to like 40-60KT gust focused on CT-LI.
  11. wdrag
    By Saturday yes, and probably parts of CT, e Li on various elements. Will start an OBS thread for the first one with more defined expectations, probably at 6PM today.
  12. wdrag
    I may adjust the title a little bit at 4PM, pending 12z/24 guidances. The adjustments would be to add inches to the title and hit the wind damage as potentially widespread by Halloween but again, nothing to overcommit quite this far in advance. These storms may seriously impact air travel along the east coast Tue-Wed morning and again Friday-Saturday. Also possible residual effects in ATL Friday??
  13. wdrag
    Early morning WPC outlooks: Heaviest rain eastern part of the subforum on storm one. Two storm totals from WPC, general 5" for most of the NYC subforum and spotty 7" MA.
  14. wdrag
    So, this is a new tool to use for many on here... click the 0 hour on IWT or IVT and then use your arrow keys to slide through the model guidance. This is GFS and NAM only op runs. However, you see something of what Blue wave wrote. Also, imo, the second event late this coming week may have some of Hurricane Rick RH in it. Take a look at the eastern side of the storm. https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/ivt_iwv_namerica/
  15. wdrag
    WPC 7 day qpf. Everything inside the red contour is 5". I would have to think media is going to have to start arousing concern. It is not everyday that WPC puts out 5 and 6" weekly contours in our area. I will add FF to the tag now. I am aware that river flooding might be the more common result of these events later this week, but I have to think FF will occur when intense rains are continuous for 3-6hours at 1"/hr rates. FF added at about 430P/23.
  16. wdrag
    We are seeing some very large #'s this week for the NYC subforum. Also some of the modeling doesn't agree in the GFS/NAM/EC modeling which i do believe...it's where. 12z/23 GFS as I'm sure you saw has 8" for NYC this coming week. I would necessarily focus in on NYC itself but somewhere in our forum, there seems to be a pretty good chance of spot 7-9" amounts by Halloween. Attached is the new midday NWS WPC ensembled approach to next Fri-Sat. We'll see what happens, if this occurs as predicted but the potential exists for somewhere along and N of I80 up into central NYS-central New England. Those reds are about 3-4.5". Will append the new 7 day totals at about 4P as my time allows and available from WPC. Modeling also is suggesting two separate storm occurrences of 850MB 70 knot se inflow. Again we/I don't know anything for sure, but am confident some validated warning events are coming next week. Where, am unsure... there can be important shifts but the focus continues here, somewhere in our area.
  17. wdrag
    Courtesy Weather.US as are many of the graphics I post. Look at these 06z/ECMWF OP graphics. I don't think it's too early to lean hard on EC ideas. It's just a matter of severity and location that it begins. That's 5" of rain e LI and 5+ Ct River Valley. Possibly too much or mis located. Part of this has the 06z/23 EC raising PW to 2" near LI.
  18. wdrag
    Bring the umbrella... follow the HRRR for today. Forecasts and outlooks look a little weak this weekend through next week with little heads up of the coming and already in progress dismal weather. Had drizzle/sprinkles last evening here in nw NJ per prior Mping reports. (EC did the best with its new convective scheme, especially the midnight ish showers that occurred here early Friday morning). It's raining now (650A) here in Wantage and more to come today... a rather chilly and occasionally wet day here in far nw NJ, probably closer to the city too. Tomorrow's forecasts seem too optimistic. This all plays into cutting grass and outdoor chores putting away summer stuff. Probably off line most of the morning, Walt
  19. wdrag
    Good Saturday morning everyone, Prepare for adverse weather, possible power outages and possible flood related problems, especially north of I80 next week. The first of the real deal rainfall probably begins Sunday evening-night with evolution of a nor'easter by late Tuesday, followed by a second large scale event though possibly of a differing more inside runner flavor, next Friday-Saturday. Details tbd but here are some graphics to ponder. I'll probably add FF to the tags late Sunday or Monday pending further model confirmation, and SVR will be reserved for last add but it's on the table. WPC has a minimum of 3" forecast for I80 north next week. Graphics below: This mornings D3 SVR outlook for Monday, The EC EPS 500MB pattern 00z/Wed (tue eve), the EC EPS sfc pattern for the same time, and then the GEFS as well at the same time, and finally a rather impressive EC EPS rainfall forecast for just our area...EPS have 5" in central MA (more to the east not seen here) and general 1-3" in our area.
  20. wdrag
    Edited topic title to eliminate wording duplication of ‘events’.
  21. wdrag
    Active Pacific pattern assisting downstream northeast USA blocking of two large 500MB trough passages next week. This should result in at least one Nor'easter and possibly a classic fall severe weather event if a 985MB low moves northward through central PA. Max isolated rainfall potential of ~7" somewhere in the NYC subforum (interior) would lead to isolated Flash Flooding but the dry October of generally less than 1/2" so far in NYC 'should' limit the flash flood threat. There has been more rain I84 northward so the flood threat may eventually be targeting the interior NYS/CT portion of our forum. The general non-astronomically high tide cycles should at least partially limit the potential for moderate coastal flooding. Of greater concern appears to be softening of the ground by next weeks rains and the probability for a period of 45-55MPH wind gusts on fully leaved wet tree branches in parts of the area, which would lead to a power outage problem. At this Friday October 22 608AM issuance time, it's far too early to focus on the details. The headlines of this topic will adjust a bit as we move through the weekend, including tags. For now have left SVR and FF out of the tags. 430P/Saturday the 23rd added the FF Tag. 7P/Sunday the 24th increased general rainfall to a range of 2.5-8" up from 1.5-4".
  22. wdrag
    One other note. There is a high wind signal for parts of the area sometime next week and possibly svr as well. No thread yet but if these trends continue another day, will probably start one for damaging wind and spotty 4+ inches of rain in our subforum. Definitely will be active as compared to this week.
  23. wdrag
    As per several prior notes from others: 00z/21 cycle modeling continues the risk of a pretty decent storm in the northeast next week (or two storms?). Additionally, should something get going along the w Mexican coast and approach the Gulf of CA ~26th, some of its moisture may get involved in the northeast USA storminess ~ the 30th. Something to keep an eye on. Not wintry but definitely signs that one of these troughs crossing the mid Atlantic coast between the 25th-30th is going to create an ocean nor'easter of 40-50kt... whether its' grazing Delmarva or LI? and with only a few 40 kt gusts or more vigorous on our coasts? Tides are not abnormally high so that is good. The previously posted 500MB height departures from normal show the blocking.
  24. wdrag
    Not wintry but definitely signs that one of these troughs crossing the mid Atlantic coast between the 25th-30th is going to create an ocean nor'easter of 40-50kt... whether its' grazing Delmarva or LI? and with only a few 40 kt gusts or more vigorous on our coasts? Tides are not abnormally high so that is good. The previously posted 500MB height departures from normal show the blocking.
  25. wdrag
    Well I had my doubts and so maybe a small area will get some severe, but this does not look like much to me. In fact maybe someone will see small ice pellets tomorrow afternoon in the hilly burbs. My max gust in this part of Wantage NJ was about 27MPH. Was high based convection,
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