wdrag

Not threading yet. High amplitude trough with several shortwaves behind the initial central USA portion on the 12th. IF we can get something to dig behind it and come out of the large scale trough - negative tilt - on the 14th, we'll be in business for a two part event, strong southerlies and associated heavy weather late 12-13, and possible ne USA coastal rain ending as snow or flurries 14 or 15. Just too early for me to commit on anything out of the ordinary, be it more than 3" of rain in parts of the NYC subforum, or first flakes (cor from auto speller) to NYC with accums as far down as just south of I84. Just too early for me to be sure but it's sort of been on the boards for a day or so of modeling.

No thread on 12-14. Too ordinary with varying speeds of fropa rainfall. While no thread, I still will watch for a slower evolution and more intense elements than currently ensembled/operationally modeled. Have a good night, Walt

Nov 12-14 (next weekend). One or two events, with a high amplitude trough central USA progressing through the eastern USA. No thread yet, since could still degrade to relatively routine 1-2". The pattern to me suggests a warm wet event with potential for either or both (in parts of the forum-especially I95 corridor eastward),damaging wind southerlies or a line of isolated-severe storms later 12th or 13th. SST warmer than normal. There seems to be a second shortwave that reenergizes this high amplitude trough as it crosses the east coast around the 14th. It's possible there will be a northeast USA coastal reflection that could bring a period of colder rain on or about the 14th. The two combined (if indeed they both occur) could deposit spotty 3+" of rain. Routine? Too early for me to discount something that will generate LSR's sometime between the 12th-14th. After that--- sure seems modeled decently for a trough somewhere in the central or eastern USA and a ridge in the west, the last two weeks of the month (ensembles) and CPC week 3-4 issued yesterday. Edit at 639AM: Just saw the 06z/6 GFS OP. If this continues in on the 12z/18z cycles and other model ensemble agreement, will begin a thread sometime this evening.

Despite model waffling for for 11/13-14... event on. Whether it's extra ordinary is yet tbd, but rain is coming...probably a general inch, maybe e 3+ in a couple of spots. GEFS looks more highly amplified via the 12z/4 ensembles than the EPS, which is decently amplified but further west and then washes out as other short waves follow. NAEFS had rain over a 48 hour period (stalled frontal boundary?).

11/7-8: No storm for us, tho minor coastal flooding appears probable due to astronomically higher than normal tides. Maybe even locally moderate. Follow NWS for details. 11/13 ish continues to look very good for an event, but whether its our normal decent rain of 1-3" and gusty winds 35-40 knots, or something more than that - inclusive of damaging wind, and/or wintry mix nw fringe?? 00z/4 model guidance is somewhat interesting, For now, no thread from myself means no confidence yet on something more than ordinary. Enjoy these transition days (foliage etc).

I'll check again tomorrow morning early on on theb7th-8th... meanwhile something sizable in the 13-16time frame. Expanded the window one day for two events. Nice 18z/3 GFS op totals of 1-3, iso 4+. still way early.

So we all saw the 00z/3 EC for 11/7-8. Unlikely. It's EPS is hugely trim from that 00z/3 EC OP. GEFS even through 06z/3 has less than 0.10. NAEFS is also weak...less than 0.20. However, BEYOND (there is always beyond) there is general multi model agreement for a big complex storm system with lots of precip for our area 11/13-15. Right now 1-3", iso heavier suggested, with ice potential possible down to I84 high terrain. Have seen it previously non-consensus modeled too wintry for the 8th down to I84. So am not saying it will be a little icy there but this system is our next potential decently sized weather event, that may eventually warrant a thread if we get to modeled damaging wind, or 4" rains, or even ice into the interior part of our NYC subforum. Just too early (for me). We are soon to be due for a large Nov storm system.

OK, so I won't check--thanks... my reference to 76-77 was probably my experience up in SNE which was a good winter. Down here NYC area to PHL, nothing special. Just have to wait it out for this winter. Wait, and wait ,and wait? Hope it won't be forever...

Where??? I'll check XMACIS as best can. I think Bluewave has more or less concurred with his data presentation that later in Nov is better than early in Nov or even Oct. My only caveat on this IFFFF in the rare instance we have a colder than normal OCT """AND""" NOV, Then we'd be heading for a 76-77 winter, if I'm not mistaken. Not to worry this season.

Nothin! EPS Nov 5-6 will be a bust, and GEFS Nov 8-10 will likely also be a bust. Blame it on what you want, but major (EPS, GEFS) model consensus still prevails on forecasting. (Sorry EPS early Nov snow to I84 is off the books as is my default favoring of the EPS-EC---still need to review all the modeling before committing to a forecast). What I like...not having to deal with early season snow acc. I think early season snow tends to negate winter in the big cities of NYC-BOS corridor, even out here in extreme nw NJ. Please correct me if I'm wrong. So we avoided Oct snows, and the way it looks to me, even the Poconos won't have any snow prior to the 14th. Maybe we'll actually have winter in winter (late Dec-mid March) That would be novel. I edited the body of the originating thread to add in the CP departure of +4.1F for October, so we have it for the eventual Nov wrap comparison. Also, saw the comments about global marine +/- departure blobs shaping the feedback 500MB pattern. I'm not too sure which comes first... ENSO driving blobs or blobs are importantly modifying ENSO impact. Think if we knew that for sure, we'd have greater success at figuring out seasonal patterns. I wonder if anything will occur that will abruptly change the pattern late this fall?

00z/1 EPS on the 5th-6th has trended weaker and further east as a possible grazer while the GEFS is positive tilt as previously 24 hours ago but continues much more interested in the 8th-9th (now extended into the 10th). Am surprised EPS has nothing signaled for the 8th-10th. Therefore, no consensus on either set of paired dates except 5th-6th per the 500MB patterns looks positive tilt and weaker than previously indicated (grazer) while 8th-10th-no EPS-GEFS consensus.

Summary CoCRaHs totals for the two storms: Think this worked out pretty well... d60-70MPh gusts far E LI Wednesday morning and 60 MPH gusts NJ coast Fri night. and the general 4-7" of rain for the two storms, isolated heavier. Please click maps for clarity. Least rainfall was in nw CT.

Summary - 2 day. No flooding rains. Damaging wind to 60 MPH NJ coast. Heaviest rain was near the Delaware River.

Euro EPS or Euro OP? The EPS was very threatening with big goodyear tire circulation centered s of LI....far in advance. If we're talking OP... i don't remember details, EXCEPT, Tuesday morning I think that low was crossing sw LI near JFK... I do know there was a circulation there.

FWIW...lets monitor whether the much stronger EPS, and sooner is correct. IF, it is, then I think that's two storms (earlier this past week it handled much better than the GEFS). Jury still out and GEFS 06z cycle continues as previously shown. Off line for Halloween after 1030A. Have a day...don't forget your treats.

Large nor'easter potential Either Nov 5-6 (EPS) or Nov 8-9 (GEFS). 00z/31 ensemble cycles attached to compare and let's see what happens. May result in a period of snow down to I84? Check the confluence in se Canada...i like that (dual jet- RRQ Canadian confluence and LF of the se USA trough). EPS left-first, GEFS right-last.

More rain to come and some of it briefly moderate or heavy prior to sunrise Sunday... You already know the winds and power outages from late yesterday. CP .92" thru 8A put CP over 5.1" for the month. 2" out by Mt Pocono. Heaviest rain has been west so far. May be slightly interesting tonight as the big trough in the eastern USA goes negative and weakens across us overnight. Slightest chance isolated thunder and small hail in NJ. EC TT not supportive but lots of southerly wind in the sounding.

57 knots at Seaside Heights at about 715PM per Weatherflow sensor. 10,000 meters without power in NJ, most in s NJ. MA still about 90,000 meters out from Wednesday morning hurricane force gusts.

The gusty east winds of 45-60 MPH along the NJ and Li coasts early tonight will ease from south to north by sunrise Saturday as the bands of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms sweep north through the NYC subforum with generally 3/4-2" amounts. Depending on amounts ne NJ might end up with flooding overnight, while streams and rivers that were receding start rising again during the night through Saturday. There should be a lull in the showery weather Saturday morning-midday, but drizzle may occur in some areas. Another burst of showery rains, should develop across the subforum mid Saturday afternoon, except maybe missing to the east of PA. This is associated with low pressure and the approaching sharp but weakening 500MB trough heading east-northeast through the mid Atlantic states. There are questions on how much rain can occur with this second system, the HRRR and 3KNAM tending to be furthest west. It's possible thunder will occur with system as well as instability approaches 0C during the evening.

Will start an OBS thread around 5pm. Sprinkles possible NJ PA portion of aubforum before 5p. Have a day. Walt

An event that by itself would probably not deserve a thread. Start time of the showers later today a little uncertain, in my mind. Follow radar and updated modeling. Rain tonight with isolated embedded heavy showers and gusty east winds to 45 mph in a few spots, especially coast. Periods of drizzle or showers Saturday with general totals by sundown Saturday of 3/4 to 2". IFFFF, the trough sharpens enough there will be a second surge of rain late Saturday or Saturday night that would add to the totals. So isolated 4" still not impossible somewhere in the NYC subforum, but not likely. Sunday, could be some residual drizzle or scattered showers with the weakening trough aloft, and lots of leftover clouds. A wind advisory and coastal flood advisory is posted for parts of the coast. Still need to monitor for renewed flooding in ne NJ later tonight or Saturday. Please monitor NWS products.

I like this climate compare post. What i also see in Nov data are the variable outcomes...many-many more neg departures than either Sept-Oct. Yet, as you note, confidence on whether we'll actually end up with a negative departure in Nov has to be minimal... just don't know, at least not using these data alone. The warming climate change in Sept, Oct, Dec,Jan, July is noted. Thank you.

I anticipate 1-3" of rain between 6PM Friday and midnight Saturday night in the forum, with most of it Friday night or Saturday morning, along with coastal easterly winds gusts of 40 kt and a period of minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding, especially the Saturday morning high tide as pressure continues to lower despite abating easterly inflo. Isolated 4". I anticipate renewed river-small stream flooding or reversal of any recessions in the subforum. Best chance for FF would be northeast NJ where 6 hourly rainfall of about 3/4-1" would I think prompt some sort of advisory-warning. So while volume will be less, due to shorter duration and lesser wind inflow, the stage was set with this early week storm. I have not thought much about severe at this time, but there is CAPE around this weekend, so Saturday afternoon-evening convection may also be of interest, especially with fairly strong winds aloft and a TT of near 50 currently modeled for late Saturday (northwest of I95?) .

Just for the record and not a separate thread yet: The operational GFS has been forecasting measurable accumulative snow to near I95 sometime between the 3rd and 8th of November for the following cycles. 18z/23, 00z and 06z/25, 12z/26 and now 18z/27. Am monitoring for a possible thread occurrence between the 5th and 8th but no confidence yet.