wdrag

00z/15 EPS has minor snow accumulations entire region Tue the 23rd. GEFS not. Am not quite as enamored with the evolving trough for early next week... hints of digging in too far north. Might be setting us up for Sunday-Monday 28th-29th but that also is not supported by ensemble low pressures. So, will wait awhile on any thread. Have a day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1989_tornado_outbreak Check out the above: IF that's what we recorded in Nov 1989 (without doppler/without social media)... It happens... just more attention now with increased voracious media coverage through social media.

So, I know some others here have been talking about snow to the coast on the ensembles, in the previous few days for Thanksgiving week. It (like the period of the 12th-15th) is an impressive trough digging into the east next week (12z/14 multi ensembles) and seems to want to go negative. Also noting these shortwaves are ending up a little further west each run in an unstable flow pattern across the northern USA. IF this still looks reasonable in the 00z/15 multimodal ensembles, would start a thread tomorrow morning for the period 11/21-23 with 1" qpf, maybe iso max 4"?, or damaging wind (40-55kt coast), possible snow or flurries to the coast-favoring backside wraparound flurries. What further caught my eye is that it seems the NA block is more favorable (fully anchored) for a coastal storm sometime between the 26th-29th. By that time we'll know of the 21st-23rd storm develops a deep closed low heading toward 50N/50W.

We can probably benefit from normalizing.in the historic database. Tor Emergency first used 1999. Reports_ Concerted effort by NWS offices to verify warnings using all sorts of data sources, with social media contributions in recent years likely adding to the recent counts. TOR eval techniques improved, including use of building construction, and Doppler data to the strength values. Perspective-normalized would help.

Warming cycle of recent years-- and then yesterday, I think SST positive anomaly may have added a little juice-energy. Attached this mornings analysis.

NO thread, as yet, on inside runner (e Great Lakes) strong wind event around Nov 22-23.

Part doppler related, part greater comfort issuing.

Part Three: tonight and Monday. A band of showers will cross the subforum. Amounts generally light altho show intensity in some areas will be briefly (a few minutes) moderate or heavy. This showers will change to briefly minor accumulating wet snow terrain above 1000 feet in ne PA, extreme nw NJ, se NYS, nw CT. The showers will probably intensify as they cross eastern LI early Monday. Slight chance Thunder there. Monday... rather deep short wave crosses the area with scattered showers or sprinkles, except flurries I84 corridor higher terrain. Of interest is modeling attempting to generate thunder E LI Twin Forks newd, during midday. Three-Four Day CoCoRAHS rainfall totals will post Wednesday. (12th-15th stretch).

Excellent posts yesterday. I won't reiterate the SVR, except to say this 'potential' was modeled at least 36-48 hours in advance. HRRR Cape, lightning, hail, supercell composite. I have attached Part ONE rainfall of the 3 embedded event of the large eastern USA trough. Click for greater clarity. I'll add part TWO later this morning and the two day totals.

Sting Jet: Usually with bombogenesis, especially extreme. Our satellite from midday yesterday on. Compare with sting jet satellite second link below. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=240&dim=1 https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/archives/26650 Wikipedia probably has a pretty good set of info and schematics-composites. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sting_jet#/media/File:European_Windstorm_Conceptual_Model.jpg Yesterday was considerable instability with southerly low level flow of moisture advection associated with the second of the strong short waves rotating newd through the ne USA grabbing some of the strong winds aloft. When we get a sting jet (100 MPH swath south side of a bombogenesis cyclone), a rare occurrence here, we won't like it. BIGGGG damage.

Should be very large hail just northwest Wananque NJ where DVIL over 40.

Post away as it keeps going. Storms producing multiple reports of hail up to 1/2” diameter. This via MPING

Pea hail from a DVIL storm of about 8. When DVIL increases, hail will be larger.

MPING pea sized hail w NJ now

Thunderstorms w NJ now.

No thread for Thanksgiving week (monday-Wednesday before)... too much variability but a storm is likely.

Agree w Bluewave above... I'll probably be off line 8A-5P-- hope you have action. I may chime in from Taylor PA near AVP if an when snow mixes or accums. Follow your own model guidance and that of the NWS-SPC. We're not done yet, Part Three Sunday eve-Monday, especially I84 snow showers and minor accums.

Going to be interesting, esp CT. Here is SPC D1 outlook (MARGINAL RISK SVR). No other changes to Part Two expectations. I do expect hailers especially C- eLI, maybe back to to NJ/se NYS, with minor snow acc Poconos, Catskills, Berkshires.

Edited thread topic 626PM for your possible use. Seasonably interesting showery weather coming, MUCH cooler Saturday night. Most of the interesting action should be I80 region northward.

Several more reports today, courtesy LSR and associated platforms.

I see Southold on e LI .. mesonet G52 MPH.

So far, ho hum. Damage and wind gusts as more or less modeled.

Wantage NJ... max g 27 MPH with the line on radar. Differences in precip.. Ambient .46. Tempest 0.55. Go with the more conservative. Running side by side tests.

Please follow NWS statements on the potential for SVR midday Friday. Otherwise, scattered showers develop near midnight becoming bands of briefly moderate to heavy showers during the daylight hours, ending from west to east by around nightfall Friday. Rainfall generally in the 0.4-1.5" range;. Iso 2.5" possible. Gusty surface winds to ~40 MPH BUT please follow NWS SPC on the marginal potential for an embedded SVR storm, even Tornado, due to the strong wind fields aloft and marginal instability for connecting to the surface. This latter SPC threat is the primary reason for beginning this OBS-NOWCAST thread. EDIT: 444PM/11: Guidance seems to be ramping up surface gusts I95 eastward midday Fri...gusts 50 MPH. The above is part ONE. (edit 626P/12 Will post CoCoRaHs data as best I can around 8A Saturday) Part TWO is Saturday--- a 6 hour period of colder notable showers. Edit 444PM: Modeling (some) is trying to focus energy (CAPE etc) for a thunderstorm vcnty NYC. If that happens, hail would also be possible. [EDIT 626P/12 Part Two is on for Saturday midday-afternoon. HRRR has a 'chance' of thunder north of NYC... but its modeled guidance suggest T might occur down to NYC. Slight snow acc Poconos midday Saturday.] Part Three is late Sunday-Monday with potential for general light precip with embedded moderate, and even some minor wet snow accumulations highest terrain northwest of I84. Let's focus on Part ONE when it arrives Friday, and we'll get to separate OBS threads, if needed, for parts Two and Three, if that is okay with everyone and if needed.

I see two events coming in an 84-96 hour period between the 12th-15th. First one is the larger rain event of 3/4-2.5" on Friday. The second for now as a CFP with a period of showery precip late Sunday or early Monday. The first high amplitude 500MB trough lifts northeastward and weakens across us, but plenty of jet, so it won't surprise with iso SVR Friday but for now, indicators are mediocre. The second short wave looks pretty strong for next Monday.