wdrag

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! The first of the season for the interior northwest of I-95- A 'widespread' little bit of snow. Starting with the Poconos where snow cover has already occurred earlier this month. Snow showers Friday with a possible spotty up to 1". Those higher elevations may see chilling gusts near 50 MPH Frday afternoon or evening. The more widespread periodic snowfall will occur Sunday, tapering off to a few flurries Monday morning. Amounts should range from a Trace (NYC) to maybe 1/2" I-80 to I-78, mainly Sunday 5AM-Noon. But from just north of I-80 through the entire I-84 corridor, 1-2" should fall by sunrise Monday: isolated 3-4" 'possible' highest terrain. It begins Sunday morning and may continue periodically into daybreak Monday. Untreated surfaces will become slippery at times. Thankful for this little touch of winter coming to part of our area. Walt 634A/25

I quickly looks at 12z EPS-NAEFS and 18z/24 GEFS. Most of the development looks a little late and 850 LOW still n of our latitude. To me, the 18z/24 GEFS total positive snow depth change looks about as good as it can get in our area and it won't surprise me if its a little less. I95 itself T to maybe spotty 1/2"?? but my guess is roads wet. I84: small accums, especially elevations with heaviest CT. Just my early guess. Ensembles dont have much qpf so I kind of think I need to be conservative and just hope nw tip NJ gets an inch or 2?? As we draw closer and it becomes clearer we can do better, then we can enjoy. Just don't want to be too optimistic about snow I95. At least this pattern gives us an opportunity for something small...I'd like to see it realized near I95 northwestward. and let's not forget Friday wind potential, late in the day when the coldest part of the trough is overhead w NW 850 winds increasing to around 45-50kt. How deep the transfer, not quite sure yet.

Thanks for the posts... I have yet to examine 12z/24 ensembles and probably won't be able to til after 8P... but, probably good to discuss this coming pair of events (Fri, Sun-Mon). Timing short wave passage Monday seems differ on the models. Anyway, glad it's still viable. I may be too enthusiastic but it's a bit of a start. BIG N Atlc BLOCK has helped set it up...

Thread now refocuses headline on part TWO 26-28, w possible extension to 29 in the future. Part ONE failed due to modeling leading up to the 15th issuance being too deep aloft, too quick. Ended up further east and we were dry with a chill gusty wind. Tags: dropped heavy rain, and changed damaging wind to wind event. Modeling beginning with the cycles of Tuesday the 23rd have increasingly hinted at a possible wind advisory event for part of the area later Friday into Saturday morning followed by some sort of snow or flurry event Sunday - possibly lingering into Monday. Questionable outcome but we do know the modeling is digging a 3rd strong short wave trough into the northeast USA late this coming weekend. Therefore, while the first on the 23rd didn't produce hazardous weather, the second may generate a bit of a wind event in the wake of the cold frontal passage late this Friday, and the 3rd may allow some sort of coastal low to develop Sunday, departing Monday the 29th. Uncertainty exists.

A thread for this (part two) is already out there, if you become more confident. I'm a little hesitant right now...models have bern vacillating, GFS op generally out to seas and I dont have any confidence in the ICON. Maybe tomorrow morning will show some slight consistency? I'd like to see the EC have snow for us, 3 consecutive runs. In any case, the pattern is fairly blocky and good cold for us but whether anything can generate other than a CFP Sunday, am unsure.

Thread is already there and set up... maybe we can actually get something. Jury out and I've no solid clue. Later edit... at 236P. Or did you mean 12/3-5? We're getting ensembles to get see very cold 500MB departures Tue and Fri night. Sooner or later, some snow or flurries has to get down here to NYC or near. If not in this pattern, then I'm less confident on any extended predictability beyond Dec 2 as big Greenland block looks to have disappeared.

Thank you for your note... I try not to gaffe too many, otherwise it's crying wolf. We did know that it wasn't a lock. This first one is quite the weakened-positive tilt 500MB trough that both ensembles at 7 days and beyond had considerably wrong, GEFS more so than the more progressive EPS. Disappointing yes, but the expected and still to develop near Greenland block I thought would be enough to justify the consideration. Event #2 is still on the boards, even if miniscule. Could be a windy cold event with a few flurries or something a little more but overall... I think at least through Thanksgiving, most welcome the relatively quiet pattern here. No comment on event #2 til it's more certain to be nothing or something.

Monday: bands of Lake Effect snow showers in the wake of the CFP, mostly Catskills Poconos northwestward on Monday. Lingering flurries Tuesday morning. You should manage fine. Smart driving.

Ordinary weather... despite the developing pattern aloft next week. I like the 00z/19 10 day ops, but it's 10 day, just like the 10 day outlooks waere for this coming Monday-Wednesday, which probably won't be much more than developing blustery chill and some flurries, maybe even a flurry down to NYC? If and when the shorter term offers a little more than a 40 kt gust here and there, or deposits snow/ice over the interior...I'll tend to refrain from commenting. This coming Mon-Wed ahead ends up too late too far east, earliest hint of this was the GEFS a few days ago, in the initial topic discussion. Til whenever, have a good day(s) shopping-prepping for the Holidays.

Attempting to shift the conversation back from METS GM to what still needs to be monitored via the 06Z GEFS animation. Note at 18z Tuesday, the most intense phase of this system is in progress with a -6SD=purple (for the season and our LA/LO) 500MB trough that is closing off further and further south. This is the multi member display and averaged. Lots can be gained from animating (checkmark) and or scrolling through the times. Other features of note are a good positive tilt track for the next weekend system with vort probably across NJ, AND this 06z GEFS modeled continuing depressed (maybe too far south) storm track in early DEC with still above normal heights in northeast Canada. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

Nothing going on yet, that warrants lots of confident hazard occurrence attention. Nice looking potential at 500 MB but surface response is chaotic as someone previously pointed out. Not throwing in the towel yet as we are 5-7 days out for event one, and 9-11 days out on event two. As I sit here at 624A having reviewed my favorite 00z/06z Nov 18, 2021 ops/ensembles...I see slightest chance for iso SVR early Monday morning the 22nd, scattered back side wind gusts 40 knots or so Wednesday, especially NYC/NJ/PA. Backside very minor snow looks to me like I84 elevation best and just a small chance for a few flurries NYC Wednesday. The event for next Friday-Sunday, whenever it occurs is also chaotically modeled from cycle to cycle. It is I think beginning to edge out the first one on general qpf, but it too may be too warm except maybe for I-84 elevations. I do think an event is coming then... and maybe if its too warm, we'll see some brief scattered backside wind of 40 knots. A nice looking potential pattern based on the developing Greenland Block,and it's enhancing digging-sharpening 500MB trough of early next week, but what it yields, is uncertain. Still worthy of monitoring. Will check back again this evening if consensus modeling is favoring something more than ordinary for late November. Not changing title down (HIGH impact) because it's Thanksgiving travel-shopping week and modeling may yet coalesce to a stormier impact pattern around here.

Can't comment too much on how things will transpire. These are chaotic model runs. I looked at the 12z/17 ensembles, and this 500MB trough maximizes all its weather over New England-our area and then weakens eastward. It seems a little bit progressive...not closing off deep (slow) enough. Yet the progressive EC has -33C over us at 500MB around Tue night-Wed morning. That warm water along our shores should be a player in the deepening process - lapse rates. Will check back Thursday morning.

Yes, plenty to monitor.

Yep... the images posted show how touchy the pattern is to flow patterns, exampling the EC OP as relative outlier when compared to ensembles. If the models do not trend west from here (06z/17) by this weekend, then it's a more or less typical Nov storm with backside flurries to the city, and scattered wind gusts 40-55KT on the backside, but not the bombogenesis HIGH impact portrayal for our area that was advertised a day or two ago. I still think upper lows are trouble and this needs to be monitored for an eventual slightly further southwest and stronger sub 980MB trend into southeast New England. Just my 2c, have no science to back up my concern...just my visual impressions and knowledge of previous guidance.

Good Wednesday morning everyone, Models having trouble with this coming pair of events, but the trend to slowing and coming back for the GFS and GGEM may have started with these 00z-06z/17 cycles. Too early to wave the white flag and surrender to the too far east, benign scenario. You've seen the 06Z GFS OP with flurries to LI and measurable north of I80. It's just one member of many. I am favoring the 00z/17 GEFS/GFS solutions over what I think are wayward east solutions for the 00z/17 EC/EPS. To describe the differences... the EC solution has a positive tilt to developments over the area 12z/23-Tuesday. See the 500MB flow pattern. It's an unlikely development, in light of the consistent signal of prior ensembles. Attached are the 00z/17 GFS OP 500MB, EC OP, EPS 500MB (tilted more neutral than it's single member OP, GEFS 500 [ignore the color difference-differing normalizing scheme], and the midnight WPC outlook for more than 3" of snow, basically Tue/Wed which confines the small (10-29%) ensemble chance of decent snow north of I84. Beyond For-Sat after Thanksgiving continues on the table for measurable snow closer to I95. It's in the favorable -NAO expectation. Thanks is extended to Pivotal Weather and US Weather and NOAA for these graphics.

Reviewed multiple models/ensembles through 18z/16. Suspect this eastward weaker day cycle modeling may be temporary. 12z/16 ENS for the GEFS continues to increase qpf here for the 23rd event, and 12z/16 EPS continues to wrap minor snow to the coast by Wednesday morning, If by Friday morning the 19th, models don't revert westward with a 970-980MB low northward from the e TIP of LI to e MA, then we probably avoid a widespread HIGH impact event. Both GEFS/EPS have a 500MB closed low aloft developing somewhere between ALB and BOS Tuesday. To get there the short wave has to dive southeast across PA then lift ENE from there. I could be wrong on this but I think the models will slowly return to a stronger greater impact storm for our NYC subforum northward. We should know by the 12z/19 cycle.

To stablilize the model differences , see if some sort of consistency develops via the GGEM=CMC. Gain have not seen 12z guidance.

If indeed there is a 965 mb low off our coast, it will be a national news story due to impact. That would be a weakening hurricane here. Have not seen any data since 11z and won’t till sometime this eve. I would think the size and strength of the previously modeled block combined with PAC Jet, out SST implies at least one major storm here. This presumes that block still occurs by Thanksgiving. Do not ignore 11/26-28 and maybe yet something thereafter. Will look at other TC posts for further consideration of impacts.

I agree. While 10 to 1 does not properly account for snow microphysics, melting, and mixed snow rain adding as all snow; it does suggest a consideration and is inclusive. None of the maps are perfect.

545AM/16: Title added HIGH to impact. Changed wind event to Damaging Wind. No other changes at this time. Bombogenesis with associated variable but high impact weather across the subforum. Wraparound snow potential continues for a portion of there subforum. Snow event, at least for the interior seems to be shaping up for the I84 region, sometime between the 26th-28th. Will rereview sometime this evening and again early Wednesday. I think the trend is a stormy Tuesday the 23rd, with lingering scattered wind gusts 40-50 kt early Wednesday then diminishing. EC OP seems to have a SVR signal for a short time and EC OP also has e LI pegged for 60kt gusts on the south wind as bombogenesis occurs. Thats' a 7 day single member model. Could easily shift to another area, especially into eastern New England. These coming events, pair of, should be monitored by travelers to consider options if stormy weather materializes. Certainly factor in the 'possibility' to need extra travel time.

726PM/15: Our forum is well aware that the recent few days of modeling is favoring a developing -NAO (Greenland Block-anomalously warm 500MB heights) that probably won't fully activate until Thanksgiving and beyond. One sharpening-negative tilt trough is multimodeled to drive southeast from central Canada Sunday the 21st and close off somewhere over New England Tuesday the 23rd, then possibly lodge near Labrador (50/50) Thanksgiving while following shortwaves try to organize a trough near the east coast by next weekend. The latter initially associated clipper low ??may??redevelop far enough south to become a significant impact player in our weather BY next weekend. For the past couple of days modeling has favored early next week (22-23) for a possible rapidly intensifying low pressure system somewhere along the mid Atlantic or New England coast. This event still has many undetermined outcomes (as of this Monday 11/15 writing), with the 12z/Monday Nov 15 EPS favoring wet weather (0.25-1.5" of rain) possibly ending as a period of wet snow or flurries even to the coast late Tue or Wed. That wetter and slightly colder solution is not yet shared by the 12z or 18z/15 GEFS, which has development later and further northeast. The NAEFS QPF is not very robust either. In fact I cant find any ensemble modeling with an 850 LOW south of Massachusetts. However, of interest beyond the probably quiet Thanksgiving day, is the likelihood of a little colder air in place ahead of the next strengthening short wave. Depending on how far south the core of that short wave (VORT MAX) tracks, it could permit coastal development near LI/Cape Cod late Friday. A long shot now, but the NAEFS as of the 12z/15 cycle has a bit more qpf for the NYC forum, especially CT, than for the earlier event. In summary, the bombogenesis near LI shown on recent GFS/EC OP models is of interest but it is not (yet?) the preferred ensembled solution...just a possibility. If it eventually occurs, the tags and title of this thread will update and reflect a much stormier scenario. The potential exists but far too early for me to express confidence (despite the anomalously warm SST's near our coasts that would energize sfc development). I am as interested what might happen next Friday-Saturday, with colder air in place and what at this issuance looks like an ordinary frontal passage, might develop into something with a bit of wintry interest, for the forum. If this becomes a non consideration in a few days, I'll admit it. 545AM/16: Title added HIGH to impact. Changed wind event to Damaging Wind. No other changes at this time. Bombogenesis with associated variable but high impact weather across the subforum. Wraparound snow potential continues for a portion of there subforum. Snow event, at least for the interior seems to be shaping up for the I84 region, sometime between the 26th-28th. Will rereview sometime this evening and again early Wednesday. Potent pattern for one or two travel HIGH impact events NYC subforum Thanksgiving week: Mon-early Wed 11/22-24; & Fri-Sun 11/26-28. 540AM/24: The above was the headline issued on the 15th, having added HIGH to impact and changed wind to damaging wind, Thread now refocuses headline on part TWO 26-28, w possible extension to 29 in the future. Part ONE failed due to modeling leading up to the 15th issuance being too deep aloft, too quick. Ended up further east and we were dry with a chill gusty wind. Tags: dropped heavy rain, and changed damaging wind to wind event. Modeling beginning with the cycles of Tuesday the 23rd have increasingly hinted at a possible wind advisory event for part of the area later Friday into Saturday morning followed by some sort of snow or flurry event Sunday - possibly lingering into Monday. Questionable outcome but we do know the modeling is digging a 3rd strong short wave trough into the northeast USA late this coming weekend. Therefore, while the first on the 23rd didn't produce hazardous weather, the second may generate a bit of a wind event in the wake of the cold frontal passage late this Friday, and the 3rd may allow some sort of coastal low to develop Sunday, departing Monday the 29th. Uncertainty exists.

Working up a cautious thread... very cautious. You may not like it but there is so much chatter about potential... I am liking after Thanks giving overall better. Will try to briefly explain in thread. Should post by 715P. Few if any graphics, just not enough consensus to hang my hat on.

Am remote seeing only your data but probably will carefully start a thread this evening.

Nice run... EC/CMC op's not there on the 06z/15 GFS op run, tho CMC strong. 06Z GEFS...no snow on the coast, tho that could be grid related. It's got snow to about I95...minor. Just not enough consensus for me...still looks too far N or too late for me via ensembles. That could change more favorably. Later, Walt

Yes, I see that (after my pre 06z/15 GFS op post). Not reacting to a single member (or few) D8 nice track-storm. 06Z GEFS will now have snow to the coast, I would presume, due to this member. Pattern just not what I can try to lock a scenario onto. I'll wait til this evening, if I do thread at that time.