wdrag

Cool... we'll take anything we can get.

Really? Not what I saw in the link but maybe I misread?? Thanks.

The result of this thread: Overall a BUST utilizing 500MB ensemble pattern forecasts and an associated -NAO. Both troughs did not yield as desired - expected, with modeling well in advance far too threatening, eventually caving in to modest - rather paltry for the November impacts and essentially a drier than normal pattern for our NYC subforum.

Looks like only Newark through 7AM. Thanks for this link.

I think traces for sure, whether measurable- doubts

24 hour reports snow and water equiv through 920AM/28. Note 11/27 NAM was a little too heavy but the NAM/EC combo did best on sprinting a little snow eastward across the region this morning. The value of the GFS/GGEM being essentially drier in yesterdays (11/27) cycles was to not go overboard and realize that NAM/Combo might have been a little too robust. Still, from what I can tell from these reports and mPING, you can call this the first widespread light snow event of the 21-22 season. Exceedingly minor but as some other have termed...MOOD-Decorative.

CP: unlikely to have to measured. BUT, first flakes of the season via ASOS. Looks like snow began there 309AM. KNYC 281104Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM SCT023 OVC050 01/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SNE00 P0000 T00061028 $ KNYC 281051Z AUTO 00000KT 3SM -SN BKN026 OVC060 01/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SNB31 SLP127 P0000 T00061028 $KNYC 281041Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN028 OVC050 01/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SNB31 P0000 T00111033 $KNYC 280951Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC050 01/M04 A2993 RMK AO2 SNE06 SLP128 P0000 T00061039 $KNYC 280851Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM -SN BKN055 OVC075 01/M04 A2993 RMK AO2 SNB09E25B41 SLP130 P0000 60000 T00061039 58007 $

Wantage NJ 6A report: small flake snow continues despite radar. 0.2"-first measurable of the season. Probably began around 1A. 27F.

A period or two of snow or flurries should move through our NYC subforum Sunday morning, with untreated slippery conditions in some areas, especially NJ/NYS. Precipitation will tend to melt on pavement over LI where it may change to rain showers toward forenoon. A large part of any snowfall should melt during the afternoon. The most likely area to receive spotty 1 inch amounts seems to be ne PA, w NJ and the se NYS hills. MPING may be helpful for those trying to know what is hitting the ground. Also the axis of heaviest (albeit a minor light snowfall) may not be determined until 3AM Sunday as the eastward streaking snow tends to show the most favored lift region. IF (and there is still doubt since some models including the 18z GFS, are dryer) this snowfall occurs, I'd consider it the first widespread very light snow of the season. Again IFFF. This excludes the flurries that occurred Friday into Saturday morning Nov 26-27 (measurable snow did occur over the northern fringe of the NYC subforum Friday). Best lift seems to be reserved for Monday morning when the sharper trough passes through, but the RH tends to be shallower and so there may not be much, if any, showery yield. Regarding todays (11/27 cycles) RGEM inverted trough mesoscale developments over CT/e LI Monday...unlikely but not out of the question. Does CP Measure more than a Trace:? Possibly, if whatever falls doesn't melt before the 7AM observation. More likely just brooms, than any shovel.

Been flurries here in Sussex County of extreme nw NJ for past two hours. No accumulations. will mPING again.

In the mean time??? Maybe I'm wrong, but another climate forecaster pointed out what appears to be a developing stratwarm in nw NAM the next couple of weeks (GEFS). Is it true? AND, the impact on USA weather? Presuming the same delays here as always at least 2-4 weeks after occurrence (late Dec?). I am curious. Need something to jar this pattern back to something eventually more favorable for winter (after this -NAO disappears next week).

Interesting counterpoint... good to have this further discussed, if there is any other science.

Good morning NYC--- and all surroundings! Wish I had better news, for something more than mood flakes-dustings-coatings Sunday morning, probably by 10AM, possibly as soon as midnight tonight in the western suburbs. Model disagreement says, no guarantee, and this could be showery or if you weren't up to see it-you might miss whatever. Also don 't think it's worthy to stay up for, except that from my view, due to EC consistency, NYC should (or is it could?) receive it's first Trace of snow in the air Sunday (not the hail Trace of the 13th). Some of the models are dry, so that tells me, miniscule...but I'll probably start a thread (mood flurries, or dustings Sunday morning), pending the 18z cycle from today, presuming there is still a chance in the coastal plain. The lead short wave diving southeast from the Great Lakes is the driver...it weakens as it crosses PA early Sunday, and with low dew points in place, some (maybe most) of the falling snow aloft will dry out in the coastal plain, ne PA/nw NJ hills could see spotty 1/2", maybe too se NYS with less, if any in CT. The following primary trough aloft passes through our area Monday, when we could see a snow shower or flurry. Nothingburger as some would say, but for a first somewhat widespread hour to 3 hours of snow (no guarantee widespread), that's what makes it worth it. Certainly wouldn't thread something like this in mid winter, though with the much discussed future winter pattern, is this all there is going to be (-NAO to boot)? Happy shopping! 619A/27 Corrected nothingburger spelling at 922A.

Bumpy?

Wantagh NYS Mesonet and ISP have hit 40-42 knot. Minor impacts.

Ditto harmless a little bit around here in nw NJ. mPING helpful. 37.6F at 740'MSL. Max G 26MPH so far today. My guess is that gust will increase this evening.

Let's add the misery map starting to show some wind related delays. My guess is this will increase through 10 PM. s NJ in the upper 30s (knots) and even near NYC now in the mid -upper 30s knots. Click the images for greater clarity.

CMC a little later than I'd like (Monday). EC still on board. UK sort of odd 12z/26 OP 500MB evolution. I still don't know for sure. IF it's going to snow Sunday morning I'd like to see the GFS/NAM on board as well as GGEM/RGEM. fwiw: very recent wind gusts over 40 knots... just sw of our area. KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KBWI: Baltimore, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KCII: Choteau, MT, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KCTB: Cut Bank, Cut Bank Municipal Airport, MT, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KGTF: Great Falls, Great Falls Intl Arpt, MT, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KHGR: Hagerstown, MD, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KJYO: Leesburg / Godfrey, VA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KLWT: Lewistown, Lewistown Municipal Airport, MT, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KMRB: Martinsburg, WV, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

Mood snows, slight hazards and that's all there is for the winter? Looks sort of pathetic right now, but enjoy whatever we get by sunrise Monday, cause it's difficult at this time to see a snowy start for December. Todays rain will change to accumulative snow in the Poconos around 9-10AM and taper to gusty flurries midday..an inch or two highest elevations. Road accumulations may be spotty due to still generally above freezing temps. We in far northwest NJ might even see the rain end as non-accumulative wet snow midday. The hills of northwest CT change over between Noon-3PM with there too an inch or two the most likely outcome higher terrain. The hills of northeast CT change to snow between 3P-5P and may accumulate 1-2" before it tapers off to flurries tonight. The Boston area should see some snow with the west and northern suburbs picking up maybe an inch in a few spots. Sunday: I84 corridor-- A period of snow in the morning, mainly west of the Connecticut River with a Trace to 1", the 1" best chance in the Poconos. Presuming it snows, it sticks on everything not treated in the Poconos. Another period of snow is possible Sunday night with additional minor coatings here and there. Graphics on the storm thread. IF this that occurs the next 72 hours is nothing-burger, wonder what the rest of the of winter provides... storms for sure, but sure looks like inside runners for the next couple of weeks, unless we thread the needle. This block is what we needed right now... maybe we'll luck out this winter, even with all the discussion of negative PDO,ENSO/SST signals. Should I get depressed about a projected lower than normal snow winter or just accept and ride it out? My snowblower is tuned up for the first time in 5 years. Is that a surefire winter killer? Think I'll put my snow stakes in today. Have a good weekend and let's see what transpires. 835A/26

So we will see what happens... a couple of graphics for the next 3 days. Click each for detail, if interested and use the legend for your area of interest. The bottom graphic is the 8 member SPC HREF ensemble for today-tonight. Elevation snow or flurries anticipated for the I84 high terrain today...all dependent on your location.

Agreed--we'll take anything we can get. My confidence decreases next week as block goes away. I checked the 06z EC and it snows NYC, exceedingly minor but it snows. Its 06z ensembles continue developments off Cape Cod. I agree on fast mover and this is over by dawn Monday, whatever it is. I leave you with 06z/25 GEFS prob for>1" snow... and a first look at MPAS which has microphysics embedded. Not sure how constructive this is (especially the last graphic), but overall... nw of I95 looks for a whitening and if we can get qpf prior to Noon Sunday, I can see the same to NYC doorstep to CP (cars/grass). Use the graphics with care... and ensure perspective.

Thank you and how true! ANOTHER reason to be thankful. Only a Trace so far this season in Wantage (19th-6AM).

Also, fwiw, will change thread headline to first widespread (minor) snow of the winter, IF future modeling holds. Wind obs over 45 MPH (any damage) can go into this thread as is, since at this time, I don't think that aspect the weekend will be heavily loaded. I probably will start an OBS thread for the first widespread snowfall of the season, Saturday evening, for the Sunday event,,, presuming it still looks similar. Just need to wait it out and be 95% certain.

Maybe even Sunday morning 9AM? Not impossible to have a touch of white on cars/grass there in the city and parts of LI. Hope it works out. Kind of a nice start to the winter if it comes to pass.

Wind Friday 4P-midnight: Might gust briefly past 45 MPH in cold air advection for the coastal plain. Follow NWS on any statements if this would come to pass. I think the ridges look like best small chance of isolated gust 50 MPH.