wdrag

Just a couple of images from the 06z EC. IGNORE the ICE northern MA as that has already occurred. By the way, 12z HRRR has a period of sleet for NYC/LI Monday evening and its 2m temps tend to be constantly too warm in my estimation. So i very much like what was placed on the nw-ne suburbs thread at 730A. What i may do is start an OBS -NOWCAST thread for our area Monday morning if it still looks promising that sleet occurs for a few minutes NYC-LI. Note the 18z Monday picture of snow crabbing into out interior (06z/26 EC), and the total freezing rain expectation of the 06z/26 EC op model by daybreak Tuesday. Images courtesy Weather Models.com and the EC Centre.

Nothing a lock and I'm no long range expert-- but the NAEFS is spreading colder air east-southeastward across the northern part of the country in early January. Cold enough for wintry mixes. Jan 2-3 as previously noted is of interest for a potentially complex sizable multi wintry element event. I did not say major snowstorm but it seems like 1/2"+ of melted wintry qpf is possible for a part of our area. NO thread yet from myself, but will rereview modeling trends late today. Have a good day!

Not threading the Monday afternoon-Monday night ice since it looks mostly I84 corridor, and modeling might be a bit too cold, given this morning's warmer than modeled start (RGEM/NAM). Will re-review this evening.

Good Sunday morning everyone in our I84 corridor. It is Dec 26-the day after hopefully everyone appreciating that we started with a bit of a white Christmas before the afternoon-nighttime melting. The next overall MINOR event is slated for Monday (27th) afternoon-night, especially the Poconos, northwest NJ as mainly some ice. It may begin as a snow-sleet mix sometime midday Monday or afternoon, and degrade to icing at night. Untreated surfaces should become icy along and north of I-80-especially at night, though I'm a little worried that the models could be overdoing the cold air with resultant marginal temps for icing. It's still quite mild as of this writing. The mixed wintry precip should arrive in CT/MA late Monday or more likely Monday night but with timing uncertainty. I added a graphic that shows the ensemble chances of icing - favoring PA/nw NJ/se NYS. The blues are chances above 50%--please check the legend for the chance near your area of interest. Beyond next week--- modeling is repeatedly saying something sizable is coming to our I84 corridor Jan 2-3 and it may be wintry for a time, even down to Philly and Baltimore. May be a bit too early for a thread on Jan 2-3.

No thread from me on Mon-possibly Wed for wintry wx, til Sunday morning at the earliest.. Enjoy the Christmas Story. I like Ralphie. Walt

I hope I set the bar low enough for NYC Jan snow -= 1/2 of the normal. I think many on here would be thrilled.

And the final TWO day snow totals via CoCoRaHs obs. One graphic and one click for clarity. A white Christmas it was/is for most of the I84 corridor including extreme nw NJ elevations with 1/2" or greater amounts still on the ground this morning.

Does the December 2021 La Nina pattern edge to increasingly wintry scenarios here, with the - or neutral NAO largely persisting through January? The results of the LaNina pattern here: The first 24 days of December showed basically less than half of normal precipitation with temps 2-4F above normal and less than half of normal seasonal snow. Persistence (little change) would be good for heating bills and general travel - free of hazardous road conditions. Not so good for winter weather enthusiasts including skiing-skating-shoveling-plowing. Monthly normal snowfall is 8.8" in CP. Added some CPC graphics at 11A. the 1 month outlook made Dec 16, and the 1 and 2-3 week outlooks made 12/24.

Pattern looks like it's evolving a little more favorably for wintry mixes all of our area I78 northward. Not threading Monday-Tuesday (yet), but it's looking messy to me. Meanwhile, the NAEFS is showing signs of much below normal cold intruding through the northern Plains into the upper midwest by early January and ensemble snow depth is modeled to increase there. That allows colder boundary layer temps to be less distant. Already many models are/were MUCH too warm at the surface for yesterdays first measurable snow in NYC and for this mornings ice event north of I80. I think the same is ahead this coming week. Suggest following the colder surface temps of GGEM/RGEM and EC through Wednesday. My expectations below for early this coming week. I think we're looking at a period of snow Monday changing to periods of sleet or freezing rain Tuesday that may linger as mixed wintry precipitation into Wednesday. It's complex but I have little doubt that more hazardous wintry weather is coming early this coming week to at least portions of the I84 corridor and even down to Easton-Phillipsburg-Chester near I78 (PA/NJ). Long Island probably escapes the icy stuff (maybe not the period of snow Monday).

ICY in far nw NJ . 31F in Wantage.

Not threading the patchy icing that will occur in NNJ by sunrise and extensively further north in CT/se NYS. Trends regarding the modeling seem to be colder as we draw closer to these events. I am not closing to the door on developments the next 4 weeks. It seems like some changes are coming... and that blocking across the pole into northern Canada is going to become broad and fairly strong. Implications keep seasonable cold here for at least two weeks, if not longer and those seasonable temps can be cold enough for snow-timing-timing-timing. 29/25 as of this 928PM writing here in Wantage NJ... going to be difficult to avoid icing here early Christmas day.

Snow fall (incomplete CT) for event... all NYC airports measured snowfall. Even though a pocket of 2" nw NJ, the general larger amounts were in CT/MA. Click map for greater clarity.

Yes all airports first measurable with CP 0.2". That is done. Now we go for the first inch. Will reevaluate Christmas morning around 7 or 8A.

Add on as you wish: posted nw suburbs. I may not be able to post again til Christmas morning but will try to get a CoCoRahs summary of snowfall posted around 10A??? May or may not have time. From what I've seen, generally near an inch nw NJ and se NYS. Saw a 1.4" Rockaway NJ.

My only post today for our I84 corridor... what I expressed to my FB friends. Happy Christmas eve everyone, All of our I84 corridor has a fresh covering of snow on the ground (1" seems to be common- at least here in nw NJ) with the snow ending in CT by 9A, and Boston area by 11A (it may not snow along the NH border of ne Massachusetts). So where do we go from here? Little brief icing's or mixed wintry events for the I84 corridor the rest of December, but we may see somewhat larger snows in the first of half of Jan????? Anything outlooked wintry beyond a few days is subject to great error in this pattern. Midnight tonight to 10A Christmas Day: A very brief period of ice is possible for the highest terrain of the Poconos-Catskills (above 1500 feet) before it turns to rain by dawn; while northern CT and MA should see a period of general light ice after 4A Christmas before it too changes to rain by 10A Christmas Day. The National Weather Service already has advisories posted in CT/MA northward. Follow updated forecasts from favorite sources and don't forget to leave some fuel for the reindeer. 611A/24

Wantage 1.0" 25F. Beautiful morning. CP had to measure had 1/4S+ and .03 melted with a temp 31-32. KNYC 240951Z AUTO VRB04KT 8SM OVC055 M01/M03 A3012 RMK AO2 SNE0852 SLP192 P0000 T10061028 KNYC 240851Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM -SN BR SCT011 BKN049 OVC075 M01/M03 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP198 P0003 60003 T10111028 58014 KNYC 240847Z AUTO 15004KT 4SM -SN BR FEW011 BKN045 OVC075 M01/M03 A3014 RMK AO2 P0003 KNYC 240834Z AUTO VRB04KT 2SM -SN BR FEW009 OVC031 M01/M03 A3015 RMK AO2 P0003 T10111028 KNYC 240832Z AUTO VRB03KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC029 M01/M03 A3015 RMK AO2 P0003 T10111028 KNYC 240823Z AUTO VRB04KT 1/2SM -SN FZFG FEW008 OVC015 M01/M03 A3015 RMK AO2 P0003 T10111028 KNYC 240807Z AUTO VRB03KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV014 M01/M03 A3017 RMK AO2 P0002 T10111033 KNYC 240758Z AUTO VRB05KT 1/4SM +SN VV018 M01/M04 A3018 RMK AO2 P0001 T10061044 KNYC 240751Z AUTO 16006KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC027 01/M06 A3018 RMK AO2 VIS 1/2V5 SNB47 SLP214 P0000 T00061056 KNYC 240651Z AUTO 13003KT 10SM SCT065 OVC085 02/M08 A3018 RMK AO2 SLP213 T00171083

Wantage NJ at 230A Dec 24 0.3" snowfall and snowing at a pretty good clip. 25/23 light ne wind. It is beautiful. Everything covered nicely.

26/18 here in Wantage and generally overcast with a very light north wind. 00z HRRR has this as a 1A-8A event for most of our area and now is colder with measurable snow to NYC/noethern Li. We shall know more in the morning. Seemingly no big deal most of the time, but this winter, if it measures NYC, that will be a relatively big deal for 12/24 along with slippery conditions on all untreated surfaces along and north of I80. This may be my last post for much of the night.

Thanks .. looks like it's coming. Let see the surprises. I'll try to be up for some of this.

Choose your model and since since the NAM through the 06z/23 cycle was dry in NYC, there is no guarantee this thread will be correct for NYC. I'm putting my money on the 06z/23 EC, HRRR, RGEM and allowing for a chance of 0.2" measurable snowfall in NYC early Friday morning. Temps I think will be down to 32F in NYC in a period of snow in the 2-4AM time frame, and then a question if it sticks, will it still be on the snow board at 7AM-12z/24 OBS time. So, if the HRRR/RGEM/EC/GFS don't shift the southern edge north during today's cycles, I am expecting a dusting up to an inch I78 region northward inclusive of northern LI and NYC, while the jackpot, 1-3" if you will, should lie further north from the Catskills through CT. Blame a warm frontal wave (passage of an area of pressure falls on the warm front to our south), ahead of the stronger low pressure heading for our area on Christmas. Ensembles are not enthusiastic for an inch of snow except well north of I84, so we need to keep than in mind as well. Adjusted the title at 609PM to add OBS and NOWCAST

Just waiting for the 06z EC before setting up a thread that will basically incorporate the OBS as well. You may need to be up early tomorrow morning to see the snow on the ground in NYC. It's not guarantee but other than the dry NAM (it goes away in 2023--- and it did not perform well recently), I think just about all of us except the s coast of LI we will see a touch of snow on the ground tomorrow morning.

I may begin an thread for small snowfall in our area 04z-14z/24 including possible measurable NYC. I'll rereview around 8A Thursday and decide then whether it's a regular thread or hold off til Thursday evening for an OBS thread. 00z/23 HRRR/RGEM/most recent 18Z/22 EC all favorable for NYC measurable by 7A Friday. Marginal cause of possible melting between the time of the snowfall and the ob. Am done for the night.

Monitor the RGEM... it's scoring BIG over all models since 06z/21 for the freezing rain that is occurring nw NJ/ne PA across into se NYS and CT this midnight hour of early Wednesday Dec 22. It has completely accurately outperformed the too warm SPC HREF, HRRR, GFS since at least the 6z/21 cycle. ICY here in nw NJ with .06 freezing rain in the Ambient counter. The SPC HREF finally caught on with its 00z/22 cycle...too late for much added forecast value. Always been a GGEM/RGEM fan. While what happens Thursday night may mostly melt during the midday hours Christmas eve (wherever it accumulates), it's a start--best axis for accumulation...too early for me but a worthy monitor for at least something in this weak start to winter. Last post here, but thought a heads up for model performance is useful right now. Happy Holidays! Walt

For this who follow models: Any disagreement, post here. Otherwise, let this be a bit of template for the winter stuff...at least the subtle winter events- as ongoing here in NW NJ. I checked on all the models: HRDPS complete miss, the 00z/22 GFS complete miss this far northwest. EC is a start. HRRR...a concern of mine recently in winter. TOOO warm and a miss. SPC HREF terrible until finally catching on with it's 00z/22 cycle... far too late when compared to the RGEM as early as the 06z/21 cycle. The RGEM and GGEM again best on lead time and current 00z/22 cycle for temps and associated weather (ZR-). So, I'm not threading yet... but NYC may see some measurable snow around 1AM Friday. Please see attached 07z/24 hourly precip type forecast by the RGEM. GFS is trying for same, but slightly warmer=wetter for NYC. Right now the modeling is suggesting 0.5 to 1.5" snow event along and especially north of I80. That could shift for Thursday night-Friday morning. I won't thread this until sometime Wednesday night if it's still possible for NYC.

I checked on all the models: HRDPS complete miss, the 00z/22 GFS complete miss this far northwest. EC is a start. HRRR...a concern of mine recently in winter. TOOO warm and a miss. SPC HREF was terrible as well until finally catching on with the 00z/22 cycle- kind of late to the game, especially when compared to the RGEM previous cycles at least 24 hours ago. The RGEM and GGEM again best on lead time and current 00z/22 cycle. Walt 109AM/22