wdrag
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No thread from myself until at least 830AM for short fuse snow squall gust 40-45KT even 11A-2P Pics and NNJ and 1P-3P NYC-CT. Slightly less modeling support than yesterday though I think it will happen. No thread on Friday til at least tomorrow afternoon... a little concerned the ensembles les are favoring I84 for decent snow.
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A couple of NWS probability graphics and my take on this based upon modeling through 06z/14 I 84 corridor inclusive of everything I78 north on Monday night-Tuesday evening. Hazardous 2-5". Periods of snow develop later Monday night ending Tuesday evening. Delays or even a few cancellations expected Tuesday morning rush. A little ice may mix in across NJ. Ground will be frozen as temps remain below freezing from sunset today-at least forenoon Thursday. NYC. Hazardous snow 1-3" and possible ice-rain. Tuesday 1AM-8PM. Steady snow early Tuesday possibly changing to ice or even rain? Treated surfaces Tuesday should be just wet during the daylight hours but travel delays possible for the Tuesday morning rush hour. Max snowfall a little uncertain due to ice/rain and modeling was trending heavier
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Seems to be caving.. and we're not done yet. GFS too. Event hasn't happened so will have to wait til 00z/17 to know for sure. I continue with the RGEM/GGEM/NAM/HRRR blend. If the Canadian drops it... then its over. Some of the modeling is showing 6+". axis should be near I95 or just northwest but we'll see. Definitely higher fluffier powdery snow ratios inland. Staying with 1-3" NYC...but no guarantee 1".
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Am in full agreement, and after Sun early AM review will probably start short fuse NOWCAST OBS thread for this. Adding on a couple of graphics for the wind, including R#. Looks to me like this will maximize in our subforum and for now, the guidance favors power outage producing 2 min whiteouts (Trace -0.3") and damaging wind ~I80 south including LI (50-60 MPH per Bluewave), while longer duration squalls to the north of I80 where roads will be come suddenly slippery with 1/2-2" amounts and wind gusts more or less 40-50 MPH. Tsecs for LGA using the HRRRX
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No Friday the 19th snow thread for NYC subforum til at least tomorrow evening. Want to get through tomorrow's midday squalls first, then be sure about the happenings for Tuesday and set it up from there if its more than 1" snowfall.
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Modeling is constantly improving. Some of the old rules of thumb are not nearly as necessary
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Y HOI e is Canadian. It’s usually slightly warm. Higher qpd less snow. We have time. I
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So the 12z/13 NAM and RGEM have an event. modest, bu west of I95 hazardous, with a band of ice somewhere just west of I95 and decent snowfall ratios and powder I84 corridor. Let's see what other models say. Just have to ride this out a while longer but something is coming Tuesday. Not necessarily more than a light event but looks extensive to me.
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CoCoRaHs data as of 10A today...most obs before 8A. Red the biggest. click for clarity. NNJ rivers escaped a significant weekend rise since the 1+ inch was in the Poconos and east of I95. Still folks without power nw NJ and eastern NYS among the states.
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Good observation: Looks potent and would not surprise snow squall warnings PA/NJ/CT tomorrow. Just a matter of what sticks.
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Cold frontal potential bands of snow or snow squalls with steep moist low level lapse rates,. a wind shift and gusty falling temps below freezing soon after the cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. I84 corridor inclusive of everything I78 north on Sunday (that's NNJ/se NYS/Pocs/CT): A band of snow or snow squalls Sunday will accompany a strong cold front across the area. Accumulations variable, but expect 1/2-2 inches except less than 1/2" valleys. Prime time ne PA/NNJ/se NYS 9AM-3PM, CT-MA Noon-6PM. Blustery visibility may briefly drop to 1/4 mile in a few spots so be prepared for variable driving conditions...manageable but be alert to alter speeds etc. Falling temps well below freezing in the afternoon will mean potential refreezing of any melted snow. NYC-LI: Probably melting upon contact but grass might get a slight coating and it could look impressive on time lapse if this comes to pass Sunday afternoon.
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Keep looking and monitoring: I, as does WPC (their products) agree with posters... the snow is coming. RGEM-CMC consistency should be monitored. Axis is variable. Latest RGEM - 06z/13 version, I sort of like. Looks like 1-4" I95 west and has ice near the I95 corridor. NAM seems too warm=north. I did check the NAM and a banding signal is evident so that contributes to the powdery potential. How this plays? For now, I think this is a powdery interior hazardous modest impact event on previously frozen ground (4P-Sunday-Tuesday) with decent snow ratios, higher than 10 to 1 for the interior (NOT the WET 7 to 1 ratios). I can see ice or rain for I95 or east of I95 so for myself in NYC CP, I'll stick with for 1-3" by sunrise Wednesday. Confidence a little below average on what happens NYC (but a little above average interior). I think staying conservative in NYC is best for now and just monitor the modeling... for me I need the GGEM, RGEM on board for this to happen. fwiw...if interested see January thread for the Sunday cold frontal passage snow squall event that seems to be looming for our NYC suibforum
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MEH... Winds generally below 40 knots so far. 50 KT Scranton and power outages northern PA, eastern-central NYS/ northwestern NJ where 62 Mph occurred near Hamburg Mountain. Max rainfall missed the previously flooded basins (missed to the east) which is a good thing so the second even higher stage for the mainstreams may not occur in NJ. Will post CocoRaHs map and any LSR's around 10A, as time available.
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- flooding rains
- damaging wind? squalls?
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OBS thread should you have anything to report. I think most of the obs reports will be early Saturday.
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I can only presume AI assisted modeling was tested for improved guidance prior to its implementation. Recommend staying with WiC and check their afternoon EPD when it comes out
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Read the 212A pmdepd. Interesting comment about EC (almost AI implication) that didn’t run. Unsure if that applies to this. Will check tonight but I see a pretty good polar overrunning boundary for powdery snow inland.
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If that's true... another reason to not post on X or any other platform where your impressions are swept away to not be checked-evaluated. Here... you're out there to be post examined. That is valuable for others to consider whether you have anything consistently reliable to contribute.
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I think one thing I important in all of our/my comments... willingness to acknowledge the unknown-uncertainty.
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I still stay with the idea of a snow event inland and coastal rain/snow mix... BUT... we need to see the EC-EPS start shifting west by tomorrow morning. Right now it's trend through the 06z/12 cycle is weaker and weaker. If the Euro scored... that would be huge. I'll be working today so you'll know how things are trending sooner than I. There could be a radical sudden EC-EPS shift in the next cycle 12z/12 or 00z/13 as I recall last Dec that took a snowstorm away from us by shifting to a CHICAG) storm. You may recall? IF no EC west shift, then I would think the GGEM/GFS would trend noticeably east. I just have to wait it out. I can't be sure if its superior EC initial analysis per Roger comment earlier in this thread or something else?
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The Canadian is my winter model of choice for big snow axis. Yes it can be wrong. I agree with Roger... the Euro is out on its own. So we/I have to make forecasts and can't worship one model as almighty. Odds are the EC will be too weak. Lets forget Feb ahead, and enjoy the extremes of winter storms that have been presented to us the first 20 days of January here in the eastern USA. Amazing how fast the power problems of Tuesday were resolved in the USA. Excellent work by the power companies! Kind of rough near BUF and MKC for the playoff games this weekend, unless they've been moved? For me, there is little doubt now that a widespread news making hazardous winter event will spread from the Ohio Valley across the I95 megalopolis but impacts still in doubt. I myself think widespread delays and cancels are coming. NYC-LI probably 1-3" of snow as I see it but could be wrong- rain factor as I buy the much closer to the coast scenario hooking onto the oncoming cold front dropping down Sunday-Monday. That's Don's stats and some of the modeling am seeing. I84: besides looking pretty good for a powdery snowfall Tuesday-early Wednesday, I like the RGEM idea of 1" of snow with a preceding cold frontal passage this Sunday. Timing of GEFS storm is a little slower than what I think will occur and storm focus should be, imo, 09z Tue-09z Wed. Uncertainty on timing. Adding a bunch of graphics.. btw: 06z GEFS even heavier than its 00z version. View these as ideas-NOT gospel. I like WPC dark green (30-49%) axis as the winter hazard concern. 06zGEFS positive snow depth through early Wednesday which includes the stuff from tonight through the weekend. The idea is show how extensive this will be south of 40N. The 24 hour prob 4" from the GEFS, CMCE and last the EC prob for 4" is lightest. CMCE surprisingly far east. I'll check back tonight. If the future Canadian loses it... then all this is for naught for me. I maintain in large scale synoptic situations here in the northeast...if the Canadian doesn't have it... its an unlikely event. Canadian ia slightly warmer model and you adjust the edges but it's a solid model. 00/12 NAEFS now taking a solid .4" qpf back ti the Delaware River.
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Don, I like stats... but these are depressing for NYC... when I keep reading these NYC stats... it's like it almost never snows in the city. I accept them as is and hoping we can expand the sample size soon. In the meantime, not sure if anyone noticed that Don is projecting a warmer than normal Jan... but only maybe about a degree or so above. The reason that is important... the first 11 days are averaging almost +5 in CP. That means some noticeably brrrr weather is coming to getnthat average down to only +1 or so. Will check back in the morning.
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Kind of gutsy no high wind watches NJ, e PA, e NYS LI. (I know I'm not that good at discerning 5 knots model bias too high). Could be just a few less power outages than Tuesday night but am pretty sure all offices will have some LSR's wind related. Between 9P-5A, I think we're going to see 45-50 knots at a number of metar sites from the Poconos through NJ LI (a 2 hour buffeting and I'm not counting on holding onto power) Looks to be slightly different areas getting hit this time... so maybe LI will stay below 45 kt, but am not counting on it. Will recheck tomorrow morning. I can't add any more now. I'll be looking at snow-sleet here in Sussex County of nw NJ around 5-7P tomorrow for an hour or 2, I think.
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- flooding rains
- damaging wind? squalls?
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Stage forecast from the ensembles which NERFC is following, has a higher crest this weekend on the Passaic.
