wdrag

Not thinking at all 3-5" of rain in 6 hours. Thinking several events add up, plus a little snow melt & a little frozen ground and ab eve normal antecedent flows/soil moisture. If some of this is snow-ice (which it could be west of I95), then that slows runoff and reduces the potential.

Yes... but northern stream seems to deflect some of the warmth south at times next week in the Northeast USA. . EPS has an interesting ice signal next Tuesday night ne PA-se NYS with at least two of the global ensembles 1-4" snow I90 north.

NY subforum thread considerations: Sunday the 28th-Wednesday the 31st: One or possibly two hazardous wintry events of snow and/or ice or flooding qpf. Just too far away to have much consensus although for now, most of the snow ice is ensembled inland from I95, despite some op members on the coast. My interest is combined with additional qpf by the end of the Jan adding up to between 1-2.5". If its only 1", Allentown will be top 10 rainfall in January 100 years record keeping. Allentown already top 1/3rd of monthly snowfall. Allentown is western fringe of the subforum but gives an idea of distant interior. Ensembles already have a small chance of a few small streams "minor" flooding by next weekend (I consider small stream minor flooding somewhat routine-as opposed to mainstem minor which is less frequent and a bigger deal) with snow melt, qpf and that does not take into account potential qpf beyond the 28th. No action on my part for a day or three.

I haven't looked close, but I think its going to be messy wintry west of I95 starting later next weekend, despite above normal temps (colder part of winter). So yes, we could get to 60F mid or late workweek--- see attached ensemble temps for central NJ We should lose all the snow south of I80 by next weekend. North of I80 it gets complicated by ice. Minor flooding could result on a few small streams by next weekend??? but nothing like we had in early January. Its the following week (late Sunday the 28th-31st) that I think gets interesting regarding all sorts of possibilities.

Yep--I picked up almost an inch between 430-6P. final here in this part of Wantage 2.5. I see most of northern SC 2+.

Don and others... any pix from the vicinity. What I saw on TV 4 in CP was more than 0.4".

I will follow up with some storm totals tomorrow near 10AM I hope most can enjoy in what has been a good winter week of cold and snow on the ground.

Probably.. our dewpoint right now at 630P iOS still 19 so may wring out some more snow. Had a pretty good rate of fluff accum 430-6P. Now at 2.5" It is beautiful here. I saw some CP pix on TV and 0.1 is incorrect in CP. My take is that there was at least 0.5" in CP based on what I saw... maybe more. I saw the .04 w.e at CP and 0.1" snowfall in the 4P CLI. Something isn't right with a max of 32 at CP.

Wantage at least 1.6" at 3P and snowing again pretty steady at 430P. Walt

Wantage NJ at 740' MSL 1.3". mostly small flake snow, and definitely smaller flakes right now than a while ago. All roads salted enough to be mainly wet with a few slushy spots. Market parking lots snow covered off of wet SR13 in Sparta. Temp in Wantage 24F.

Reports...widespred 3-4" already DC-BWI and am seeing 2-3" just west of PHl and reports of 1/2 mile moderate snow Trenton and Mount Pocono which is art least 1/2"/hr if it holds for an hour. Snow looks better to me today then it did Tuesday. Still disorganized but there should be a nice consolidation during midday according to a number of short fuse models. 0.2" at 835AM in this Wantage location since it began at 715A. Flakes still a little too small so its dense power at 21F.

Tiny flakes Sussex County NJ. Need bigger flakes to get decent snowfall

No more threads anticipated in January with ice-snow next week probably I84 corridor northward. Monitoring for 2+" qpf the last 10 days of the month pushing us up toward top 10 January prep and also renewed minor flooding in NJ but looong ways off to be sure. Focus today on whatever occurs in the snow thread. I sure hope Feb produces. Looks somewhat favorable to me. EC weeklies dated the 18th are focusing in on the traditional Feb 5-15 period. Fingers crossed.

moderate snow 1/2mile through a fair amount of the Baltimore area now, and widespread 1-2 mi northern PA.

flurries down in Mt Olive NJ... wont be long. Could be a slight break for an hour 2 around 9AM near I80 but it will refire.

They have a difficult time targeting one area since people commutes 50 miles from a adverse zone to a safer zone so the whole state. There's no doubt in mind souther nNJ is going to have a nice snowstorm today of potential 6-7"... bigger flakes, a little ocean instability contribution below 850 MB (a bit of ocean effect may get up to Monmouth Cty and s shore LI) and occasional banding. I could see banding up to between I78-I80, especially near 3PM when the nw upper level flow ij. NYS impinges on NJ way flow above 850 MB forcing convergence in the 800-600MB layer that is saturated. We'll see what happens.

Well, I haven't read their AFD's - no time since I have my own private group that once/day at 530A. Their AFD should haver some insight. I'll check now. Attaching the first reports of 1+.

A possible statistical 3AM reality check. Chance of snow exceeding 1". Brown starts 80%. I think where its brown, is also a very good chance of 2+. The rest is yours to debate. It should snow an inch into Fairfield Litchfield counties. maybe spotty 2"?

did not check... had to be less than 0.3"

So did Wantage. Meso models had it

Wow and thank you very much Don!

Thanks Don on HREF, I'm uncomfortable with the 330PM NWS reaching top end of all the ranges... however we will have some decent dendrites at times per multimodel check of omega in the DGZ at Sparta. I don't rate it excellent for nw NJ but anyway...there will be banding for s LI, central and s NJ. I had 0.1" in Wantage with my Noonish light snow. Max T 26.6..so we will have a slippery problem tomorrow and a good refreshing new snow cover, whatever it is. NWS snow probs for over an inch in NYC are about 85%. I'm adding the new probs for 2+. Note... if we get lucky, CP will end this record streak of no 2" in a day, on 1/19/24. Someone may want to refresh that record for us. Again..this thread will work for OBS as well.

Don, don’t these PMM’s look too high for the HREF? Something seems in error

Am aware am on the wrong thread for 19th. Was just trying to respond to a comment. Am off this thread and u likely participant much of the day

Everyone should be thrilled with the 12Z HRRR. Hope the 12zNA’M and RDPS follow suit.