wdrag
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Past 3 hours of data: Wind gusts: KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [50kt, 26m/s] stations reporting wind gusts 40-49kt KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KGED: Georgetown, Sussex County Airport, DE, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KGVL: Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KHGR: Hagerstown, MD, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KLVM: Livingston, Mission Field Airport, MT, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KMIV: Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KMUI: Muir/Indiantown, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KMWN: Mount Washington, NH, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KNEL: Lakehurst, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KNHK: Patuxent River, Naval Air Stn, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KORF: Norfolk, Norfolk Intl Arpt, VA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KOXB: Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPDK: Atlanta, De Kalb-Peachtree Airport, GA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPHF: Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Arpt, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KSBY: Salisbury, MD, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KTGI: Tangier Island, VA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KTHV: York, York Airport, PA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KTNB: Boone, Watauga County Hospital Heliport, NC, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KWAL: Wallops Island, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KWRI: Mcguire AFB, NJ, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KWWD: Wildwood, NJ, United States [49kt, 25m/s]
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Seaside Heights a peak easterly wind gust of 54 Knots at 1206AM. Source: Courtesy Weather Flow.
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Wantage NJ (this part) about 8 s of High Point. 4.8" of snow as of 120A with snow-sleet mix. 26F.
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Probably my last report til about mid or 1A. Many reports wind gusts around 50MPH vicinity Norfolk VA.
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NYC CP OBS 3/4S- and .02 since 7P and 31F, WB about 30. Wonder if they'll measure snow for NYC when there ob changes to rain??
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On Wind: 18z EC makes a run at the s Coast of Li but I think OKX has it right on big wind e LI. I could be wrong but am respecting raw guidance. I have nothing in arsenal to improve on that.
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I think pressure fall center near the sfc low will keep winds light ne thru midnight up here (iassalobaric gradient) and am not convinced we scour out aa above 32F prior to 4AM. Also HRDPS, HRRR and ECMWF are pounding snow up here in northern Sussex County northward Mid-3A. Amounts are probably too high in mxd precip but what I think is occuring is a fast occlusion with the upper low casting across our area 12z Monday ONLY briefly allowing 4 hour intrusion of warm air before its cold enough to snow again as the upper low shoots newd overhead. Poconos-catskills, Litchfield Hills may only see 3 hours of mxd precip at most. 18z EC amounts probably have a high mix bias but they are near a foot Poconos newd. I'll take a stab at more like 10" for reality KMPO northeastward.
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You will hang on. I cant see it a move freezing there prior to 2 or 3A.
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HRDPS impressive I80 north. watch it if Thunder snow gets going up here along the NYS-PA border. I like its colder scenario but I'll defer to the fact that I may in error. Am expecting snow thru midnight in Sussex County NJ and possibly back and forth mix rain/snow to S+ between 1A-3A.
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Wantage Nj SB about 630PM. 19.2/10.4 Going to take some nasty advection to get us to 32 by 2AM. Has to have some 1"/hr up here by 11P or mid.
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Around 2" DC, and past hours snow increase 1 in BWI with nearly 2 on the ground there and almost an inch N DE into distant sw subs of PHIL.
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WELLLL done! Very well done. Y{ou have 2 or 3 more opportunities for TORS in FL this month as I see it.
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Report as of about 450PM in VA. Also a few G 40-51KT NC coast to Jacksonville FL since about 4P. I may not repost til 9P. Of interest, warm slot narrow and strong per LLJ but predawn rain/freezing rain ne PA extreme nw NJ near the Appalachian Trail it may turn back to snow showers as early as 12z. See HRRR. I'll stay with the HRRR positive snow amounts. Whatever it says, within an inch. It's a wall of warmth in the LLJ.
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spotty amounts ATL0.2-0.6 " per LSR's. Have no idea what is official there.
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My last on this til tomorrow or Tuesday morning sometime. Please see the attached from our National Center. Something lurks... how it works??? Let's realize it can go bad.
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Just spot checked some reports. 0.2 center of Atlanta, 5-7" general around Asheville--sloppy there. inch or less Raleigh. Washington DC area 0.1 now with 0.8" in La Plata, south southeast of DC ..home of a famous tornado years ago. Speaking of convection: The HRRR is offering thunder snow in northern PA/NYS overnight and thunder somewhere in our I95 corridor midnight-5am. A decent amount of power outages in clusters from northeast GA through the interior Carolinas.
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Even if a miss...it's better than December; WAYYYYY better.
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Sometimes patience pays... We know the mesoscale models can get too amped. I started seeing the HRRR deviate from the fast warmup yesterday and ditto the soundings from the EC...and that's why i was trying to not dismiss. I think sometimes poster pressure can mislead us from reality. I know that affected me on IDA, when clearly the SPC HREF was hung ho about 5-9". Thanks for your posts.
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Modeling is favoring the development of some sort of extensive precipitation event along the east coast, with either the first or second of two short waves carving a pretty deep, albeit temporary 500MB trough in the eastern USA between next Friday and Monday. At least until Tuesday the 18th when the results of the 16th-17th are in, lets hold off on single model solution hype. Three graphics added, two from the 08z/16 WPC issuance. Low prob 3+" of snow, and the third was the CPC D8-14 hazard graphic, it paints a small chance of heavy snow just north of I-80 again (just like this 16th-17th event). It also ,not shown here,has a high chance of very cold air here 22nd-28th. 7AM/18 Update: I've updated the thread title-no guarantees our NYC subforum will share in what is coming to the Demarva-Carolinas but it seems models are gravitating to a decent snowstorm for a portion of the mid Atlantic and possibly through southern NYS-southern New England. 718A/21: Changed thread title to add part one was about 150mi too far southeast (slightly less average error for a D5 forecast than NHC on tropical systems). Withdrew wind from the tag. Otherwise the overall intent of the thread remains the same.
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Please follow National Weather Service warnings/statements. Starting from another 10 degree morning in NYC, a rapidly changing weather scenario will cause some power outages, accidents (despite a Holiday weekend) and slippery travel for a time in a fairly large portion of the forum, in part due to at least 42 consecutive hours of freezing temperatures on non snow covered ground, and beginning near sundown when the impact of solar insolation lessens. Exactly who gets how much of what is being determined by member observations with model and forecast contributions enhancing, but not hyping interest. Coastal flood threat as per OKX. Usually we like at least 12 hours of gale force onshore flow to build the water levels, but with the astronomically higher tide cycle, 980s MB pressure at Monday morning high tide, an inch of rain in the 6 hours up to high tide emptying from rivers-streams, there should be enough surge and incoming wave action to cause coastal flooding. Working a bit against the flooding NYC southward along the NJ shore is the onslaught of wind abating and turning southerly near the time of high tide. Certainly the early part of the morning high tide cycle looms larger. If you're in a tidal inundation area, follow NWS statements. I'd park my car with parking laws in mind where it can't get flooded. Wind damage: several 12z/16 HRRRX graphics are appended. Please use the legend. Midnight to 6AM is best chance for damaging wind , to occur in a 3hour period ranging from near 2A NYC to near 5A e LI. Gusts to 60 kt possible e LI with gusts 45 kt possible NYC metro airports. I could be too conservative. Have cell phones charged and be prepared for no internet early Monday. Many of our members, even to western LI will be reporting a bit of snow or sleet late today (some are from Ocean Effect already). mPing will be helpful especially for us inland folks just north of I78 where an hour or 2 error in the precip phase change from snow to sleet/freezing rain or rain can mean an inch or two of snow. The 12z HRRR, HRRRX, and 3K NAM seem to support slightly more snow than maybe some are anticipating. Whether that occurs is unknown. No matter, if you have heart problems and live north of I80, you may want some assistance removing slush laden with maybe 3/4" of rain (glop). And of course have your resources to clear it by 6PM Monday when temperatures falling below freezing start the solidifying process. {The HRRRX amounts may be too large by 2", so it is a slower to change model with 1/4-1/2" everywhere up through I84 by 06z, so that could bias the amounts high there. edited in at 1036AM} ICE: I think parts of the I84 corridor including Sussex County NJ may have pockets of damaging ice near 4AM Monday when the ice combined with wind gusts 45 MPH in the ridges could be enough to knock out some power. Monday afternoon-evening: The trough aloft passage and influx of colder air should wring out areas of 0.1-1" snowfall in the steep moist lapse rates associated with the cold pool aloft, including NYC-LI.
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Will start Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by coldest weather of the season around the 24th. I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid. 921A/16
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Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off. Thank you all for your strong support. I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here), and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off. Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance. I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022. To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power. Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains. Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts. ---- Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by coldest weather of the season around the 24th. I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid. 921A/16
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The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours.
