wdrag

Officiallyyes. Snow wise. Maybe not??

This bodes now as an advisory event of 3-6” stripe of 8 IF the NAM does not back down more than 0.2”. There will be melting and of course southern edge near NYC May be rain but right now if the 12z/7 has the thermal profile correct it snows and accumulates at 32-34F. Snow always cools air temps to 33-34F. How much NYC. My guess is a sloppy 2. Maybe more? Lots of melting during the day. FGEN drives the max stripe. I’ll check at 6P but think it good to have a thread going. Someone is going to see 4” of wet snow within48 hours of 70F Follow Canadian closely and merge with NAM and EC is my recommendation. Got to run

5 consecutive 12z/00z cycles the GGEM home alone on 1-7" wet snow in our subforum? The 18z continues... attached. NAM now showing potential... but I think largely a placement error. Think the NAM primary FGEN will end up further north near I80. That's just my guess based on recent model northward trends of EC/GFS (thru 12z/6 cycles), and consistency of the GGEM/RGEM. Potent little 12 hour event may be developing now that the 18z/6 NAM is giving credence to the GGEM/RGEM. Will be a wet snow with accums on pavement probably 1/4 of the raw 10-1. Kuchera has less than 10 to 1 ratios. 2m Temps looks a little warm for snow and suspect they will be 33F wherever the r/s line. So, accums in the hills during heavier rates. Can it hold and occur WV/nMD/PA/nw NJ/se NYS/CT... i 'think' so but jury out and my bias to the GGEM could lead us astray and biased high. SREF does not yet support, probably due to warm 2m temps. Blend of models has less than 0.2" so that probably tempers the enthusiasm. Attached in MM 25= 1" water equiv. so the 10 MM (~4" 10 to 1 ratio) is fairly widespread over the interior. I sure hope the GGEM consistency is not erroneous. Will know Wed eve.

We will know shortly. The GFS should start coming around as the 18z/5 EC shifted a bit west in the central Apps. I know the RGEM at 00z/6 is on target with a northeast moving pcpn system -which suggests to me a 6th consecutive 1-7" for the GGEM is upcoming. I just have to go with the best models and those are the EC/GGEM combo. IF GGEM dumps it, then one more 12z/6 cycle to get back on track. I am also watching Saranac Lake for little or no snow GGEM/RGEM Monday afternoon vs the EC and GFS. Always a learning experience.

4 consecutive runs of 1-7” snow accum for our sub forum. Again and again, if the GGEM doesn’t have snow, very difficult to get anything. If EC continues 00z/5 trend then I think we’re in a good place for a minor to moderate 9 to 12 hour event part of the area though lots of melting on pavement w temps 32-33F. Wetter snow. Early, but GGEM is our only real legit hope next 10 days. Disappointing outcomes this past Tue eve and Wed night. It’s late. I’d like to get past 20” for the winter in Wantage. have a day!

I agree but timing maybe crucial and the way it’s been going if the anti snow permitting forces have it their way, it won’t. But I expect two more moderate or greater snow and ice events between the 3rd and 15th. As many as yourself and Brooklyn etal note. It’s a good pattern but not necessarily going to produce what we would like. Let’s just use the models smart, realizing their deficiencies. Also since we know the GGEM is better than the UK and GFS since their Dec 1 upgrade: the GGEM GDPS RDPS REGEM whatever you want to call them, they have to be on board to be sure it can happen. No Canadian, no snow is my experience.

Good idea not to draw too much conclusion on anything yet, but I do think trends should be monitored. I am pretty sire there will be a snow accumulation that is hazardous in the higher terrain of I84 anytime from late Tue-Thursday morning. The way it's going it looks more like later Wed-Thu as a clipper tries to develop southward. A number of models favor I84 or I90 now... jury out. NYC-I80 nil or just a few showers. After that : think there is alot more coming but spacing the short waves and their proximity to passing through NJ are all in doubt but I have no doubt that there will be several events coming between 5th and 15th for starters. I favor our biggest threat in this short range as sometime between 9th-11th. Again they could all be warm wet I80-LI but there is no doubt in my mind that this could provide interest, at the least I84 corridor northward. So the over under on my evceeding 19" of snow here in Wantage, or should I raise it to 29"? Pathetic for us here in nw NJ but still a winter of interest and I do expect more accums. I like the comment of turning every moderate event to historic. Ain't happening. For now, I'd love to see a 500MB closed low develop s of Li by spring time. Those are the better longer duration storms. For now, I'll settle for events like yesterday, albeit with more snow.

Pattern as outlined by others previously- unreliable UKMET has 6" for the I84 corridor this coming week. Definitely for the I84 folks, do not want to be dismissive about this pattern. Also, am not seeing lots of warmth this week til maybe the 6th. Shortwave dropping se from Canada are the culprit.

whole bunch of 8-10"s Mass Pike Northward vicinity ORH to BOS northward with 6" south of the Mass Pike in se MA. 3-5" n CT and 4-6" souther Mass ORH-CEF-PSF. Logan Airport officially 8.5" at 719P.

Has to be ice accretion that is usually 1/4-1/3 of ZR. ASOS gives us all helpful information via the I group which many use 1/3 of that to give an idea of total accretion.

Flurries occurring now in Wantage NJ and 31.3F My snow blower needed 2-3 passes but it took the load off the rotator cuff on my 1.2" of sleet and maybe a trace of snow and glaze beneath. NWS is tending by the book on certain criteria for a watch/warning. I don't think it has anything for combined frozen qpf. Of interest this is not a 24 hour event for all of us... basically a 9 hour event. Not sure if that was taken into account. Previously noted the much better forecasts of the RGEM/NAM on ptype and resultant snowfall. Also should be noted the value of the SREF throughout. I thought it was again much better than the Globals on snowfall and freezing rain.

What do we know about this? Impact here? from Ventrice below: The Madden Julian Oscillation is the strongest we've seen since last November. But you wouldn't know this if you were looking at the ECMWF's prediction of the MJO in the real-time multivariate MJO index. This is a time where the RMM index is failing at identifying this event.

RJay said go ahead: More wintry threats appear for our area the first 3 weeks or so of March based on any chance of ensemble reliability. Beyond the first day of Spring = March 20, MJO/ENSO trends may be the best choice. The storm track appears to favor the Ohio Valley into the northeast with a tendency for increasing contrast in air masses between the developing colder than NORMAL southern Canada (in response to Arctic Warming aloft that has modeled for at least the past 2 weeks of weeklies by the EC 46 day EPS) and what appears to be a rather warm southeast USA (MLB-there's your cue to get things settled). The ensembles are favoring an energized storm track from about the 5th-6th of March into the middle of the month. Some of us should enjoy more IMPACT snow (or ice if you enjoy that). Increasing solar input will allow faster daytime melting. Whether we can match the recent decade of March heavier snow totals vs December snowfall in NYC? (referring to some earlier NYC subforum documentation that caught our attention earlier in February). Added the CPC updated graphics of weeks 2, 3-4 at 557P/25

KUDOS on your helpful excellent post and to the CMC for their upgrade!!. I knew I wasn't seeing things. Even when I was working prior to April 2018 retirement, CMC needed to be reckoned with in the 2000-2018 time frame for winter storms. I will write NCEP today (when time) to ask about the emergency upgrade for the GFS on positive snow depth change. I guess it won't happen til the fall but this is a terrible failing of the GFS (in my opinion). As you know, I care mostly about Hazardous winter weather IMPACT. I love snow but it's the impact that most concerns my friends. Despite the terrible explicit snow forecasts of the GFS/UKMET, when they paint big amounts which you know can be ice... then realize the cue. If you look back on this event (as far as you can) the UK/GFS were hammering to near I95 and northwestward. That's where I look for a travel problem.

Any disagreements on the following let me know. Thanks. The Canadian models (RGEM/GGEM) followed in close pursuit by the NAM outperformed all the global models and the NWS Blend of Models for our NYC forum area. Underdoing the tucked in cold 7AM Friday temps:

Since there is no March thread: I'll take the liberty and drop this in here. First: Canadian models (RGEM/GGEM) followed in close pursuit by the NAM outperformed all the global models and the NWS Blend of Models for our NYC forum area. Underdoing the tucked in cold 7AM Friday temps: Whats ahead: LOTS of wintry weather events (I think) the next 3 weeks for PA/NJ northward, especially I80-I84-Adirondacks. Sunday the 27th: I84 corridor hilly terrain could have some dustings to an inch late this Sunday-Sunday night with the strong cold frontal passage and trough passage-moist instability change. Tuesday afternoon-evening March 1 I-84 corridor-Adirondacks: Possible 1-3" Later Wednesday-Thursday morning March 2-3 PA-NJ-CT-MA: 1-4" possible from a clipper that might have a narrow stripe of heavier snowfall- yet to be determined. Next weekend March 5-6: This potential wintry event may turn out too warm for the region south of I-80 but an event of sorts is coming to the northeast USA. Yes I recognize the 5ht may be quite warm but it could b e setting things up for the 6th wave of low pressure on a previously juiced frontal boundary. Wed-Fri March 9-11: A significant event is outlooked. Thats two weeks in advance. Details regarding areal coverage for the snow or ice have many solutions so nothing is locked in. It just looks like we're in the storm track the next 2-3 weeks and a couple of these may cause similar delays-cancels that we experienced this morning. Have a good weekend.

Wantage NJ (this southern part). 1" solid sleet depth on top of the starter glaze and now moderate mixed sleet and freezing rain and holding firm at 22.5! Recommend clearing this stuff midday-afternoon when temps make it to near freezing and solar does its thing. Have to get it cleared by 8P, otherwise plummeting temps lock up the ice.

530AM report from Wantage NJ. 0.8" ice pellets on top of the starter glaze. Temp not budging...22F here in this southern part of Wantage. Removal will be slow. Sanded roads, no plowing yet here in this residential rural location. Walt530AM report from rural location.

Wantage NJ first band 10A-1145A 0.1" new. Untreated roads wet with a slight covering during the snow on the shoulder but at 28F now the roads are wet as is driveway. Pavers and wood surfaces/grass/rooofs etc covered slightly. snow quit til the squalls arrive.

Wantage NJ finally hit 60 here at 455A, tumbling now. Max G 36.5MPH at 210A. Definitely less than expected on wind gusts by 5-9MPH across the board entire subforum. Too much isothermal, maybe not enough defined lines of convection. Models still going for a Saturday afternoon snow squall, sharply falling temps (down 10F between roughly 1P-6P) along with nw wind gusts 35-45KT Sat afternoon. Slippery stretches I84 contingent. Friday 25th still looks good for an ice-snow event, (mostly ice I80?) and maybe mostly snow I84?. Have a day!

My perception of what is coming prior to March 3. After that, a very good looking pattern to start March. Plenty to deal with til March 3. I'll be interested in the weeklies IF any stratwarm concept, that updates to us late today. 10PM tonight-7AM Friday NC to I90 in MA-NYS: Damaging wind and I think a fair amount of power outages. Some of these power outages may last a day or so. Areal coverage will vary but I think PA-MD-NJ-Long Island-RI-E MA are targeted the most extensive. Minimum gust sometime late tonight around 45 MPH with maximum gusts 60-70 MPH ridges, and parts of the I95 corridor including especially Long Island Eastern MA. Be prepared late tonight with phone cells charged, cars sheltered and how to handle if no heat tomorrow. Worst of the wind should occur between Midnight and 5AM Friday for most of our members. Much colder Friday afternoon--probably 30 degrees colder compared to the very warm readings of this afternoon into the overnight. Saturday: I84 corridor: a line of briefly heavy snow showers lasts less than hour with hilly terrain Trace to 1/2" and possibly suddenly slippery conditions. Valley roads should be mainly wet despite the brief snow shower. Friday February 25: Raleigh NC to the I84 corridor. Unknown regarding the southward extent if any ice (Raleigh-Richmond-Baltimore) so that could still be a miss, but I think PA-NJ northward through the I84 corridor to Boston will need to monitor forecasts for possible travel delays in ice-snow. For now I84 from the Poconos-easton PA through nw NJ, N CT-most of MA are favored for a winter storm with areas just south from NYC-PHL unknown if anything more than a couple hours of ice-snow? March 1-2: Another extensive wintry event possible for the I84 corridor northward. Have a day... will send my max wind gust tomorrow morning provided internet is up.

Continues to look interesting by March 1 and after per 00z/15 ensembles. GEFS is even tossing a snow event out there in the ensembles from the VA's northeastward around March 1-2. Also sensing more and more that this coming warmth is about 2 days at a time, Wed-Thu night and next Wednesday ish. Noting all ensembles are chilling 850MB to near normal by 25th-26th when the door opens for ice or snow possibilities involved with the precip events. Expecting spotty wind damage Thu night in parts of our area....mixed down with showers.

Think it's time for a March thread, whomever wants to start it. I agree with all others on here: no snow here til about March 1. EPS 14th version is trending cooler as periodic ridging embraces AK and the W coast, which means as Bluewave and one other very recently said, gradient action and I think a good chance much closer to normal than what we will experience 1/21-28 (the torch everyone was talking about 1-2 weeks ago). I'm in the camp for hope and my own expectation of one or two decent large scale northeast USA snow-ice storm events the first 2-3 weeks of March. That based on both ensembles beyond 300 hours trending a more favorable pattern for dumping high pressure and cooler air into the northern USA (ridging w coast into w Canada or AK. I do want to point out large changes in the EPS weeklies and prefer not to put much stock in them beyond 2 weeks at most. That means the low chance stratwarm in March while on the table (only for own inexperienced self) is not what I base my hopes upon. Take a look at the 850 MB 5 day average temps in the sample ending Feb 28, and March 7th. Click on the graphics for greater clarity. The first of each pair is from the 14th, the second from the 10th. Even next week, it looks like the big positive 850MB anomaly will be centered over the Virginias instead of the upper Midwest. Maybe that will trend even faster to the southeast? Just gives me pause to look much beyond 11-14 days. So I have hope that we're trending more favorably for a last gasp attempt at spreading near normal snowfall for other parts of our area. Boston and ACY well above normal, BDL and nw NJ well below, NYC keeping pace just under normal.

ditto drifting snow here in nw NJ from exposed ridges (farms).

Agreed... Our time is coming even despite my own expectations of zero new snowfall here prior to March 1. First 2-3 weeks of March look pretty good for an opportunity or two for 6+. That's hope. I'll accept that.