wdrag

On Drought?: Via CoCoRaHs since 6/23: noting stripe of less than 0.30 sw Ct across NNJ. Future not looking wetter than normal through the 21st. Target watering.

fwiw and unsure whether others on here notice: D1, D2 qpf generally closely follows SPC HREF. In summer am not sure that is a good idea, thinking that there must be some stats that show other convective modeling can improve on SPC HREF; especially in normal or above normal PWAT situations. This is where I think SPC HREF has a consistent failure to recognize qpf above what it predicts in the MEAN. Additionally, I thought this image would demo at least one part of the SPC checks for SVR D2. Exampled HRRR expectations of SVR vs the SPC 2. NW flow driven convection. Am rooting for rain that has missed this part of Sussex County..about 0.2" since June 23. Checking back, noticed it's been pretty dry eastern NYS and much of NJ the past month generally 25-50% of normal. See attached for use of HRRR guidance and click for more details. On 7/6 around 10z-619AM EDT, I added the SPC sir reports for comparison.

Lots of stories NYT, NJ papers but no map that I could find in my search, including Northeast Snow Storms (KU) and Storm Data and other resources.

Probably everyone is aware of accumulations now in parts of Morris and Sussex counties in nw NJ as well ne PA high terrain. None here yet at this 740' elevation but its wet snow and down to 33.4F.

I think todays 12z/17 SPC HREF will put things in prespective. GFS very late to the game compared to EC/GGEM. all modeling with an elevation snowstorm..suspect a few wet snow power outages PA-e central NYS Mon night (including Catskills). I am counting on 1" here at the house in Wantage NJ when I wake up Tuesday morning. ONLY the amped NAM is too warm now. System I think is being played down too much. 1983 April 18-19 I think, according to Nick Stefano 10-18" northern Sussex County. If my thinking is correct I will take a picture of our ballfields in Sparta Tue 730A when I expect to see a slight covering of snow and obvious to me, unplayable due to overnight rain. If I'm wrong, no picture. Happy Easter 2022! Walt 841A/17

Good morning after the fact but revisiting a comment made I think in late March about the prolonged hard freeze killing blossoms (buds) this spring. NOT happening. Magnolia surviving and blossoming right now here at home in Wantage NJ.

So here in Sussex County, I did a ride up to High Point State Park (attached)... that 1/2" grass is just under 1500' 2 hrs after max accumulation and temp in the mid 30s. Snow accumulation began around 1250' up there (as of 1PM equated to 2 hours of melting). The HP Monument had 1.5" and many reports in the Poconos of 1-2", also generally above 1500 feet. R/S mix down to 700 feet here in Wantage but barely could see the snow except windshield splatter-most folks at 700 feet probably didn't notice.

Briefly 3/4MI in snow at at 240P. down to 34F, from a high of 40.1. Looking for measurable snow this evening there between 6-11PM as a cold front of sorts shifts southeastward through our area with large moist low lvl lapse rates stabilizing a bit as the influx of cold air overnight. FOUS has it nice with the LI stabilizing toward 06z, BL wind increasing and the large low lvl lapse rate drying out a bit toward 06z. BGM radar seems to be showing a nice band progressing southeast, passing through ITHica and Cortland NY now. wd/247P-27

Stratwarm advertised by the EC 10MB weeklies in late February? Seems like it, but counter arguments will be reviewed. Might take longer to dissipate this cooler spell than currently ensembled?

No question Joe Rao's 1990s or thereabouts research on big Dec likely means a snowier than normal winter for NYC - again seems to verify barring a miracle the next 3 weeks. Sighhh,

I Hope EPS is true -- EPS is our best chance for any late season snow in the interior. Unfortunately, 00z/20 GEFS/GEPS not as enthusiastic. They more or less agree for the 23rd-24th, but that is an inside runner, (imo); 26-27 seems like GEPS/GEFS are too little too late and not dragging south and west as per the EPS (attached for quick view). Maybe the EPS will work? I keep looking for a solid sign of late season snow here along I84 but nothing consistent and for me, I might have to live with the 26" (this part of Wantage NJ 8 s of High Point at 740'MSL) seasonal total (to date) which is at least 15" below normal.

Continue monitoring GGEM, to see if it shows wintry hazard consistency near I80 or I84. Unsure whether 00z/17 cycle is a start in the wintry direction. Little doubt in my mind 23-24 will be a sizable event in the northeast. whatever the precip.

GFS off and on past 2 days 23-30. Already I84 GFS consistent Ice high terrain 23-24. However, my interest is tempered to chanceym until the GGEM comes on board. Again last event, GGEM/RGEM more or less had a consistent idea of heaviest snow... certainly NOT the EC (whew). So til the GGEm gets with it, then the EC...I'll keep going with outdoor spring cleanup and enjoy the warmth of the sun. Walt

Is winter done? Don't know, but at least the qpf events will be fairly often the next 3-4 weeks. Will timing work for marginal wet snow events, preferably at night so we can be greeted at sunrise with beautiful tree covered leftover accumulations, instead of watching it melt on contact during the day? Seems sort of early to say no more snow above 1 inch/event, especially I84. See some sign of attempting to have leftover wintry cold lurking Canadian border toward April 1. For now, time for me to trim-prune-prepare the gardens.

A number of reports in Sussex County NJ are higher than my own and I could be conservative. Difficult measuring here due to blowing-drifting-compaction of small flake snow. Now down to 21F with blowing drifting snow adding slush back onto treated-plowed roads. Vsby briefly down under 1/2Mile in blowing snow when gusts exceed ~30 MPH. Peak so far here 40 MPH in Wantage (306PM) with 3.1" so far. Increasing reports of 45-50 MPH gusts NYC subforum including LI to KMPO.

Wantage NJ 3.1" snow easing. 25.5F plowed street now slushy. max gust so far 32 MPH. Mount Holly and JFK have gusted to 46 MPH recently. Power outages PA-FL...max gusts so far in the 55kt range e NC to N FL

Wantage NJ 4sw: snow increase 1.3" past hour ending 11A 2.2 on the ground. densely packed small flake snow. 26F. Accum as best i can do with multi measurements and gusty winds causing some blowing. Walt

Poser outages becoming noticeable up and down the east coast due to back side wind 40-50kt, in se PA power outages probably snow and wind related.

Wantage NJ (this part): mixed with sleet at 740A, all snow 830A. 930A 1/4" sleet snow. 9A was 3/4s- small flake but now 1/2S but small flake. Believe flake size will increase later this morning as we in Wantage head for 6-8" by the 4P finish. Another 1/2-1" tonight from snow shower bands off the lakes and beneath very cold short wave passage aloft with steep moist lapse rates early on. Dropped 1 degree past 10 minutes to 30.4F at 911A.

Hi! I toss this in here. It will soon get lost, but if anyone catches this.. you're welcome to join the North Jersey Weather Observers group in a zoom meeting that begins at 7PM. The pertinent details are in the link below. Capacity is 100 so priority goes to the NJWO, but I'm sure if you're interested in processes that I use to make a forecast from trends In Tropical Tidbits, Pivotal Weather and use of Robert Harts FSU page, plus use of NWS graphics, this would be a good time to sit in and monitor - ask questions. I'm sure the first 15-20 minutes of the meeting that starts at 7, will be dedicated to the NJWO minutes/business. I'll be logged on early but won't go into any Q&A, forecasting processes until after 7PM. This will be more or less the way I prepare for my winter hazardous wx 6AM FB post (BOS-AVL). Please don't try to use the members only link. Use the longer(in blue) zoom link below that. Begin logging in at 650 and if any problems, Dave Dabour will try to ease the access. Thank you. https://njwo.wordpress.com/2020/06/04/zoom-meeting-members-only-link/

Wantage NJ (southern part) 3.8". Other reports on NWS PHI FB page inclusive of several in Sussex County.

Wantage NJ 1.8" as of 1PM...wet snow. rural untreated roads variable around 1/2" slush. Nearly 6000 without power the past hour in Sussex County NJ...scattered all over. 3/4S-v1/2S in progress.

This one and i think prior storms this year and certainly SLK this morning where an advisory was issued with EC/ SPC HREF, GFS, HRRR all offering ice and a bit of snow. Not, with the exception of some IP mix. Check back for yourselves on (RGEM/GGEM) via TT or Pivotal.

My main consideration for pavement at AT 27F or higher, 1 hr after SR through 1HR before SS, is snow vsby about 1.5Mi or greater, then very little road acc, and of course none on treated. We get down to an hr of 1/2S at 33F, slush happens. It's not an easy prediction but the experienced idea is set forth, and so melting on pavement occurs. As discussed by our snow physics person a week or two ago, snow on snow is different. Then there are our snowboards, which is something in between. Will rereview this eve.

Wind advisory situation looks better New England e LI but can happen anywhere tho am not as lit up as on this coming Saturday afternoon. In the meantime NJ advisory also allows a little leeway on severe calls that are marginal. Point being that awareness is raised for wind damage well in advance. I think a smartnpreparedness move and mnot being restricted by the book rules. Both could miss by 3 MPH but still result in power out and accidents. Got to go.