wdrag

Wantage NJ (this part) at 815AM 2.61" and still raining steadily.

Wantage NJ at least 2.42 continuing light rain-drizzle at 445A/7.

Wantage NJ (this part) at least 1.89" with light-moderate rain in progress in low top weaker radar return. Hourly RATE is .19"/hr as this is written.

Think I'd believe resurgence to the west and southwest with eventual rotation tonight to turn southwest from its evening general position? 12z/6 HRRR/NAM. Looks to me like back edge PA is heading for the nw tip of NJ as of 11A/6 Here's some data from OKX. 613 NOUS41 KOKX 061442 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-070242- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1042 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2022 ...RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...CONNECTICUT... ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... NEWTOWN 4.76 IN 0930 AM 09/06 CWOP DANBURY 4.22 IN 0920 AM 09/06 CWOP BETHEL 4.06 IN 0918 AM 09/06 COCORAHS RIDGEFIELD 3.77 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS DANBURY AIRPORT 3.60 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS BETHEL 3.60 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS SANDY HOOK 3.55 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MONROE 3.51 IN 0600 AM 09/06 COCORAHS BROOKFIELD 3.49 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS REDDING 3.21 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS BETHEL 3.18 IN 0700 AM 09/06 EMERGENCY MNGR SHERMAN 2.65 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS WESTPORT 2.20 IN 0915 AM 09/06 CWOP SHELTON 2.15 IN 0740 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NORWALK 1.84 IN 0910 AM 09/06 CWOP TRUMBULL 0.9 W 1.32 IN 0720 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NEW CANAAN 1.09 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 0.20 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... HIGGANUM 6.01 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS DURHAM 2.2 SSW 5.21 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MIDDLEFIELD 4.29 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS DURHAM 4.26 IN 0700 AM 09/06 PUBLIC 3.3 N MOODUS 4.25 IN 0815 AM 09/06 HADS ESSEX 3.38 IN 0715 AM 09/06 COCORAHS KILLINGWORTH 3.20 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS KILLINGWORTH 2.93 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS SAYBROOK MANOR 2.07 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS WESTBROOK 1.6 E 1.48 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS CLINTON 1.42 IN 0916 AM 09/06 CWOP ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... SEYMOUR 1.2 WSW 5.48 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS BETHANY 1.3 SW 4.96 IN 0615 AM 09/06 COCORAHS WALLINGFORD 4.84 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS WALLINGFORD 4.65 IN 0925 AM 09/06 CWOP YALESVILLE 4.42 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS ANSONIA 4.25 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COOP 4 NW HAMDEN 4.25 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS CHESHIRE 4.13 IN 0925 AM 09/06 CWOP HAMDEN 3.73 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MERIDEN 3.45 IN 0630 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NAUGATUCK 3.16 IN 0541 AM 09/06 COCORAHS WATERBURY 2.93 IN 0634 AM 09/06 COCORAHS WEST HAVEN 2.90 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS SOUTHBURY 2.3 W 2.87 IN 0815 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MERIDEN AIRPORT 2.79 IN 0253 AM 09/06 ASOS BRANFORD 2.73 IN 0925 AM 09/06 CWOP WATERBURY AIRPORT 2.25 IN 0902 AM 09/06 AWOS WOLCOTT 1.93 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS WOODBRIDGE 1.91 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS STONY CREEK 1.83 IN 0927 AM 09/06 CWOP NEW HAVEN 1.41 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MILFORD 1.21 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... NORWICH 5.85 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COOP 1.9 W NORWICH 5.77 IN 0845 AM 09/06 HADS NORWICH 5.33 IN 0600 AM 09/06 COCORAHS JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE 4.72 IN 0900 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NEW LONDON 4.49 IN 0929 AM 09/06 CWOP 3.1 NW HOPKINTON 4.44 IN 0845 AM 09/06 HADS GRISWOLD 4.28 IN 0730 AM 09/06 COCORAHS LYME 4.04 IN 0930 AM 09/06 CWOP MYSTIC 3.85 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NEW LONDON 3.55 IN 0651 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MYSTIC 3.28 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS PRESTON 3.22 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS GROTON 3.15 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS GROTON 0.6 ENE 2.60 IN 0730 AM 09/06 COCORAHS WATERFORD 1.1 E 2.33 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS STONINGTON 2.20 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE 2.10 IN 0600 AM 09/06 COCORAHS GROTON AIRPORT 2.02 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS WATERFORD 1.94 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS EAST LYME 1.89 IN 0600 AM 09/06 COCORAHS STONINGTON 1.45 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS PAWCATUCK 1.32 IN 0430 AM 09/06 COCORAHS PAWCATUCK 1.22 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS ...NEW JERSEY... ...BERGEN COUNTY... WALDWICK 3.49 IN 0920 AM 09/06 CWOP PARK RIDGE 1.92 IN 0925 AM 09/06 IFLOWS 0.6 SW HILLSDALE 1.59 IN 0925 AM 09/06 IFLOWS MONTVALE 1.8 ESE 1.53 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS 1 SSE FRANKLIN LAKES 1.48 IN 0845 AM 09/06 IFLOWS RIVER VALE 1.45 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS OAKLAND 1.44 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS OAKLAND 1.33 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MAHWAH 1.26 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS RIDGEWOOD 1.18 IN 0929 AM 09/06 CWOP EMERSON 1.13 IN 0922 AM 09/06 CWOP ...PASSAIC COUNTY... BLOOMINGDALE 1.53 IN 0900 AM 09/06 TRAINED SPOTTER 1.5 SW RINGWOOD 1.52 IN 0845 AM 09/06 IFLOWS WEST MILFORD 1.32 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE 1.29 IN 0750 AM 09/06 COCORAHS 0.8 SE POMPTON LAKES 1.27 IN 0830 AM 09/06 HADS OAK RIDGE RESERVOIR 1.24 IN 0845 AM 09/06 COOP HAWTHORNE 1.21 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS 2.1 E RINGWOOD 1.20 IN 0845 AM 09/06 IFLOWS WAYNE 1.17 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS WEST MILFORD 1.12 IN 0845 AM 09/06 IFLOWS ...UNION COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 0.15 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS ...NEW YORK... ...NASSAU COUNTY... LEVITTOWN 1.58 IN 0930 AM 09/06 CWOP SYOSSET 1.38 IN 0825 AM 09/06 COOP HICKSVILLE 1.00 IN 0929 AM 09/06 CWOP EAST ROCKAWAY 0.18 IN 0930 AM 09/06 CWOP ...NEW YORK COUNTY... CENTRAL PARK 0.18 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS ...ORANGE COUNTY... US MILITARY ACADEMY 2.40 IN 0855 AM 09/06 RAWS VAILS GATE 2.16 IN 0926 AM 09/06 CWOP OTISVILLE 1.94 IN 0935 AM 09/06 NYSM WEST POINT 1.93 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS MIDDLETOWN 1.90 IN 0926 AM 09/06 CWOP MONTGOMERY 1.72 IN 0925 AM 09/06 CWOP 0.8 N PORT JERVIS 1.68 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COOP PORT JERVIS 1.50 IN 0630 AM 09/06 COCORAHS GREENWOOD LAKE 1.40 IN 0835 AM 09/06 COCORAHS TUXEDO PARK 1.40 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS WALDEN 1.34 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS 2.6 NW TUXEDO PARK 1.28 IN 0845 AM 09/06 HADS WARWICK 1.22 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NEWBURGH 1.18 IN 0926 AM 09/06 CWOP WARWICK 1.04 IN 0935 AM 09/06 NYSM ...PUTNAM COUNTY... BREWSTER 3.75 IN 0935 AM 09/06 NYSM COLD SPRING 3.18 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS BREWSTER HILL 2.41 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS CARMEL HAMLET 2.26 IN 0818 AM 09/06 COOP MAHOPAC 2.02 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS ...QUEENS COUNTY... BEECHHURST 1.34 IN 0926 AM 09/06 CWOP NYC/JFK AIRPORT 0.22 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS NYC/LA GUARDIA 0.09 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... NANUET 2.61 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS 3 SSE FORT MONTGOMERY 2.51 IN 0545 AM 09/06 TRAINED SPOTTER STONY POINT 2.22 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS 1 NW STONY POINT 2.16 IN 0700 AM 09/06 TRAINED SPOTTER 0.9 N MONTEBELLO 2.03 IN 0830 AM 09/06 HADS MONTEBELLO 1.95 IN 0929 AM 09/06 CWOP BARDONIA 1.85 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS SUFFERN 1.68 IN 0935 AM 09/06 NYSM SPRING VALLEY 1.67 IN 0928 AM 09/06 CWOP NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE 1.64 IN 0900 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NEW CITY 1.35 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS UPPER NYACK 1.23 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS SPARKILL 1.06 IN 0930 AM 09/06 CWOP ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... GREENLAWN 1.37 IN 0911 AM 09/06 CWOP NORTHPORT 1.18 IN 0920 AM 09/06 CWOP ISLIP AIRPORT 0.04 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... SOUTH SALEM 5.39 IN 0747 AM 09/06 COCORAHS SOUTH SALEM 4.63 IN 0715 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MOUNT KISCO 4.38 IN 0928 AM 09/06 CWOP 3 ESE GOLDENS BRIDGE 3.09 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS KATONAH 3.06 IN 0830 AM 09/06 COCORAHS SOMERS 2.55 IN 0935 AM 09/06 NYSM YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 2.40 IN 0930 AM 09/06 AWS MIDLAND PARK 2.24 IN 0845 AM 09/06 IFLOWS PEEKSKILL 0.4 SSW 2.21 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS OSSINING 1.88 IN 0920 AM 09/06 CWOP THORNWOOD 1.76 IN 0716 AM 09/06 COCORAHS PLEASANTVILLE 1.67 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS ARMONK 1.52 IN 0830 AM 09/06 COCORAHS BRIARCLIFF MANOR 1.44 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS SHRUB OAK 1.31 IN 0600 AM 09/06 COOP TARRYTOWN 1.17 IN 0917 AM 09/06 CWOP &&

Two day totals so far as of CoCoRAHs obs post this Tuesday morning. Will check again Wednesday. Already some 3-5s in the northern part of our area and near PHL. Am sure OKX will have some interesting PNS updated next 24 hours. Long ways to go on this one.... low top significant rain likely into Wednesday morning per 500MB trough axis yet to pass and wet low lvl sounding with inflow in the low lvls. Next Sunday-Monday (11-12): might be delayed one day (per SACRUS post) but am staying with 1/2-4" in our subforum as cold front eventually arrives with PW 2". Could be isolated heavier. Obviously too far away to try to pin point. 7 day ensembles are continuing to show positive anomaly as upper low lifts need out of lower Mississippi-OH Valley. Even the slow responding summer convective GEPS (00z/6) has a bullseye + qpf anomaly over us in their D4-10 (see tropical tidbits ensembles moisture) Once thiscurrentt event is all done: may be worthy while to look at "chance" for record Sept rainfall at any of our NYC subforum climate states (see Don's general stats signal for Sept). Think we are on our way. Am 60-70% confident for another sizable event (1/2-4") Sun-Mon, and thereafter---presuming (that may be a mistake) that a tropical system will finally directly affect us with moisture by the end of Sept??? 953A/6

Wantage NJ (this part), over 1/3rd inch since Noon yesterday and I like the strength of the warm front and its convergence (N wind vs S). Going to be very big north of that front. Will add two day CoCoRaHs by 10A Tuesday. By that time I anticipate, not guarantee, NWS will have a few reports of 2-4" in LSR's/PNS for ne PA, se NYS and CT. Also: Right now next Sun-Mon is best anticipated by qpf anomaly's in PA-Ohio Valley via Trop Tidbits D4-10, GEPS/EPS.

Heavy shower cells developing now e-w along I495 in LI. Take a look.

Added CoCoRaHs sample for the past day. I'll have to withdraw CT as possible miss on heavy rainfall (only 1/2"). E LI still in the low chance mix for 1/2 or less??? Usually there are bands of exceedingly heavy and surprisingly light. As discussed by others earlier, surface convergence will be a big driver on where exactly widespread 1-4" occurs. I still like our NYC subforum for this and now it looks like the rains will continue into Wednesday due to the position of the surface low and inflow. Interesting that modeling through 06z/5 is focusing heaviest R+ north of I80 while largest PW of near 2" is modeled near I78 south. I could be wrong but it may end up that ultimately biggest rains I80 south Tuesday into Wednesday where a bit greater instability and higher PW as well as potential for surface convergence via front and better e-se gradient inflow in that area. 7" max seems to me to be a confident outlook for a tiny portion of our subforum. Where? I saw some modeling expressing potential for isolated 10" in CT. The idea... someone should receive excessive near 7" rainfall. Through 12z/5 here in this part of Wantage only 0.21, but digital radar and wxunderground obs as well as CoCoRaHs support narrow bands of 1-3" already occurred through 12z/5. Sunday-Monday looks pretty big to me as well as midwest CF arrives...possibly stalling for a while with PW of 2+" nosed into the region along the east coast. That's low priority compared to what is at hand. 1004A/5

Attaching some wx underground #'s, verifying digital output since about Noon/4. All seems on target for widespread 1/2-4" rains today-Tue night (iso 7) and again next Sun-Mon (except not indicating iso max amount at this time). Am not buying any model delays for late next weekend and or shunting to our west. Front should crawl eastward through here late next weekend with high PW in excess of 2". While I've only had 0.05 in this part of Wantage, you can see the variability up to 2+" in the available data at this resolution for PA/NJ, NYS-CT. Have also seen /decent amounts near Perth Amboy, under 3/4". Credit to Weather Underground. I'll add some CoCoRAHS 24 hour totals around 10-11A/Monday.

For starters: ne PA rolling into Sussex County of nw NJ. Digital max hourly rainfall of 3/4-1.25" already in several spots. Rolling thunder here in Wantage of nw NJ since 1234P. Looks like a nice start... I checked the 12z SPC HREF: looks like minimum 1" through virtually all of our subforum by 12z Tue with more coming thereafter. Additionally HREF is flagging potential 48 hr max max 7" ne PA... less to the east but I do believe this correct and will be within 1" correct, just don't know where. PW of 1.75" and slow movers... big yield as already ne PA into extreme nw NJ. Walt 131P/4

Our first 1/2-4" three day event in the NYC subforum with off and on showers (1/2" for the small part of the area that may miss out on general heavy rains ({CT miss?, e LI miss?)}. This is not in my mind a drought buster as Bluewave previously noted, but it seems to me to be leading up to more heavy rains by the end of next weekend. If those heavy rains occur as I anticipate (using multiple ensemble 500MB confluence with a closed low over the lower Ohio Valley and east coast ridge); then another 1/2-4" would occur here late next weekend into Monday the 12th. That second event would in my mind pretty much break the drought. This presumes the read of ensemble guidance is correct and the first event materializes as WPC forecast in their D1-3 from 08z/4. I don't plan on watering this evening through Wednesday nor have not added any water to the pool since this psst Friday. PW suggests heaviest rain I80 southward. Sooner or later the Atlantic Basin should bust loose and contribute more direct tropical moisture to our area in late Sept-Oct. So, I think things are looking up and we are all benefitting from improved modeling that can recognize this potential. . It allows for general planning, out to 9 days. I'll look at guidance late today and possibly post some graphics for two event totals. It should also be noted that already guidance is not so clean on no rain this Wed-Thu.

Adding a little more info: EC PW generally 1.75+ here Sun-Tue. A shower tomorrow could be heavy...not necessarily LIGHT. 06Z/3 EC as has the 00Z/3 EC trended southward on axis of heavy frontal related (confluence 500MB flow) rainfall basically giving quite bit here. Other can post this if you wish. Bottom line it going to get pretty wet in part of our subforum soon. Also PW next weekend SOARS in the Ohio Valley past 2". So positioning of the upper low will be important for targeting the rain next Sunday. I think it will make some news, at least in parts of the Ohio Valley.

It's long but if you wish, some supporting information relating summer-fall precip totals to tropical cyclones as appended. Again---to me it appears to be a suppressed Atlantic Basin tropical season (not at all outlooked as it has developed through 9/3/22). We need Sun-Tue (4-6) to produce substantial rainfall here... and late next weekend (11th) as well - the latter being the lower Ohio Valley-Lower Miss Valley closed low [SHARS FF events nw of vort max in light flow and high PW airmass} hopefully opening up into the mid Atlantic States. SHARS is Subtle Heavy Rain Signatures - subtle being 'warm top convection'. Details for Sun-Tue (4-6) in my mind are still to be determined. Late next weekend not well modeled (in my opinion) yet so nothing seems obvious there and maybe that will prevail but I like the possibility of a shower producer moving into our area. Below is with a link provided by a former colleague. ---- Mechanisms of Abrupt Extreme Precipitation Change Over the Northeastern United States Huanping Huang, Jonathan M. Winter, Erich C. Osterberg First published: 26 June 2018 https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028136Citations: 26 SECTIONSPDFPDFTOOLS SHARE Abstract In 1996, the northeastern United States experienced an abrupt increase in extreme precipitation, but the causal mechanisms driving this increase remain poorly understood. We find that 89% of the 1996–2016 increase relative to 1979–1995 is explained by only 273 unique extreme events affecting >5 stations and occurring in the months of February, March, June, July, September, and October. We use daily weather maps to classify the 273 extreme precipitation events by meteorological cause (tropical cyclones, fronts, and extratropical cyclones) and use reanalysis data to determine large-scale changes in the atmosphere and ocean associated with increased extreme precipitation for each classification. Results show that tropical cyclones account for almost half (48%) of the post-1996 extreme precipitation increase, while fronts and extratropical cyclones are responsible for 25% and 15% of the increase, respectively. The remaining 11% is from extreme events in the other 6 months of the year and extreme events that affected <5 stations. The increase in extreme precipitation from tropical cyclones after 1996 is associated with a shift to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation warm phase, higher total column water vapor, and potentially weakened steering winds. September and October tropical cyclones caused significantly more extreme precipitation during the current Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation warm phase (1996–present) than during the last warm phase (1928–1962), despite the same number of northeast tropical cyclones in both periods. Increased extreme precipitation from fronts is associated with a wavier (higher amplitude) jet stream, which likely facilitates the development of more frequent fronts through the advection of cool northern air into the American Midwest. Key Points Eighty-nine percent of the abrupt 1996 extreme precipitation increase is explained by events in early fall, early summer, and late winter Tropical cyclones account for almost half of that increase (48%), followed by fronts (25%) and extratropical cyclones (15%) Increased extreme precipitation is associated with warmer Atlantic sea surface temperature, increased water vapor, and a wavier jet stream

No time for details but all 00z/2 ensembles are getting wetter for Sun-Tue. WPC early morning outlooks have responded with a D3 low potential excessive NNJ. EC is the most interesting for potentially two large events early next week and then next weekend. GEPS is now backing the 500MB flow for Monday (more west instead of nw), but still, it and the GEFS don't want to pump the ridge in the se USA, therefore minimizing potential and sliding the action southward. So uncertainty continues (including primary targets). Will check again at 330PM. My action: not overdoing the water into the pool. Could see overtopping by the end of next weekend in worst case scenario (6+"). Just cautiously optimistic that our NYC subforum will see 1.5"+rains...especially NJ/PA/se NYS later Sun-Tue. Have not checked SVR potential. In my opinion it should be noted that it's been a quiet summer here in the northeast USA... the ever expanding and intensifying drought being the story. We're kind of due for active weather.

No answer to the Monday 8/29 post. Glad to see there is interest. Sometimes the pattern changes abruptly (witness Dallas a week ago with 1 foot+ after months of nothing). I'm seeing via the 12z/1 ensembles a suggestion of a fairly large closed low developing next week either mid Atlantic or near the Ohio Valley. I am confident it will happen but unsure whether we are initially targeted widespread 3 day 2"+ Sun-Tue night, or whether need to wait til next weekend for flooding rains somewhere Ohio Valley to the mid Mid Atlantic. Worthy of monitoring trends every 24 hours. For now: I wait, fingers crossed that the ensembles will continue drifting to a big closed low and am hoping that it will be affecting our area with widespread 2+. I don't operate on hope and continue using water judiciously so the pool water keeps the skimmers going and some of the flowers blooming. Forget the lawn. Will run with 24 hour trends on this...

As noted previously: ensembles don't have it, at least not yet but the 12z/29 EC op, and particularly 18z/29 GFS op are carving out a sizable 500MB trough in the northeast USA, which could be preceded by a swath of heavy convective rainfall (exclusive to this Tues night-30th-31st). Late Sunday-4th through Tue the 6th is this primary window of opportunity. Presuming the drought continues for most of us (per ensemble miss to our east), then when might it break thereafter???? I am hoping it's been previously discussed that at least one study I vaguely recall has shown the bulk of our late summer-fall rainfall here, is tropical system related. The unusually low (delayed?) ACE in the Atlc Basin tropical season seems to be linked to the generally notably parched northeast USA (NJ-New England). Fingers crossed that todays EC/GFS op cycle outliers become primary by Labor day.

CAMS ended up too aggressive to the south edge except NSSL WRF, HRRR, SPC HREF. 0.18 in Wantage. Looks like svr occurred just along the western border of NJ.

Take a look at the various CAMS from 00z/24 available to forecasters this afternoon. My model based guess: coming across NJ and grazing NYC later this eve. Some recent GFS cycles have had this event into NNJ. 12z/24 SPC HREF seems lackluster compared to reality. https://cams.nssl.noaa.gov/?model=wrf_nssl_3km-v3&product=qpf_006h&sector=spc_ne&postage_stamp=false

Anyone tracking MOS Max T performance at EWR and CP since the 19th? Despite the rains of the 18th and 21st, my guess is MOS MAX T is running a little low at these two locations.

Hope?: Finally some decent wrinkles in the Great Lakes eastern Rockies extension of the persistent summer 2022 nw flow (trough 70W) pattern that the EC finally latches onto (GEFS/GEPS seem to have muddled their way into more qpf faster than the big surge in todays 12z/EPS). I can only hope that these wrinkles are legit, and break what seems to be our worst dry spell since 2017-18 here in Sussex County NJ (attached) since 2017 (per drought monitor stats). Drought in our Sussex County NJ, the two wrinkles per 12z EPS seen in Tropical Tidbits and the EPS QPF per Pivotal Weather through D10 that is now double the mean qpf compared to many previous cycles. I hope this is somewhat correct. Our home in Wantage NJ: less than 1/4" since 6/23. Yes, we missed the TOR/SVR storm just 10-15 miles to our south from a couple days ago.

So, what may happen soon, MOS cool bias due to drying ground. RH won't be quite as high but for us, hotter temps than guidance. Still looks overall drier than normal here through the 24th...at least the 24th. Hoping for a deluge with one of the fronts. WPC on average...less than 0.3" here next 7 days. Noting also a SVR risk on SPC D4 nw parts of our area. (Tue)

Digital had 1" near Crandon Lakes... til here in Wantage. Bummer but it is what hit is...summer convection. Pattern has to change to southwest flow aloft along east coast before we get better chances.

good post and I checked NJ

Believe it or not, showers you see that just popped ups central and southern Sussex County NJ...missed our home by 5 miles but .36" in a few minutes in Frankford NJ near the Sheriffs Department.