Jump to content

wdrag

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,482

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    I just haven't had the time to review, but if someone looks at colder than normal Octobers and associated CP snow above or below, can you add NOV. I do remember local research in BOS (Pannuto etal) that both colder than normal Oct-Nov, favored above normal snowfall up there for the winter. As you're probably aware, the GFS had outlooked a couple of operational cycles of accumulating snow in the northwest part of our subform (~18th) a few days ago. Then much more recently the EC OP. I prefer no significant snow (1"+) prior to mid November in nw NJ--- early big snows don't seem to favor a big winter. So, am hoping the combined events of this Thu-early Fri and next Tue-Wed (I know the GFS and GGEM ops have dropped the second one), do not result in any snow around here. The EC continues steadfast on early next week 1"+ rain. Interesting. Overall, the EPS continues showing a pretty large positive departure on the weekly qpf here, ending the 19th. RGEM is also impressive. You saw this mornings SPC D3 marginal risk for Thu near the Delaware River and have attached the WPC excessive rain outlook. I suspect the WPC qpf outlook for at least NJ/se NYS/ne PA is a little conservative based on RGEM and trends of the EC. Noting also that a stripe potential of 3+ may be starting to show up by 12z Friday in our subform.
  2. wdrag
    Worthy of monitoring 10/13-19 for one or two large qpf events (1+). All ensemble systems above normal that time frame. GFS op may be leading the pack on potential for a narrow stripe of excessive (5+) in the northeast USA. I see this as some (minor) GMEX-Trop contribution for the first event this Thu-Fri. WPC experimental excessive as posted overnight has the excessive north of our area. I could see this down here in somewhere in our subforum. Frosty this morning in Wantage. low 31.5 on the 10' mast. (colder near grass level for sure). Colors out here beautiful reds on the maples...much brighter than recent years.
  3. wdrag
    Not much to add to previous CoCoRahs event post from Thursday. I will say the ensembles had this right for our area...Ian moisture -sfc isobaric pattern impact was big. Just delayed 36 hours from my own prior Sept post anticipation and there wasn't any rain in the METS-Braves series. The drought monitor posted yesterday was incomplete with event rain, but may not show much change next Thursday since it's essentially pretty dry the Tuesday 12z 10/11 weekly time cutoff. Added a couple of graphics from OKX proposed changed to frost-freeze. The climo portion should be of value, though this may have posted here in earlier days. Finally, I am interested in eventual moisture curling northward into the northeast USA from TD13... unsure if it will be 13-14 or possibly a 18-19. EPS is neutral on above-below normal rainfall 10/12-19, certainly wetter than the GEFS-GEPS. May be worthy of monitoring for later next week or the following week. Maybe we can enjoy an overall cooler than normal pattern Oct-Nov??? Wouldn't that a good signal for a snowy winter. Just haven't had that two month combo for years, as I can recall.
  4. wdrag
    Ian and monthly: Ian substantial rains unlikely (my wrong prior expectation) to arrive prior to Oct 1 so LGA and BDR top 20 month of Sept rainfall will remain as is (even with a small shower or two the next couple of days), within the shorter period of record dating back to the 1940s. 00z/26 GEPS is the only ensemble (recent cycles coming on board) that has decent qpf up here late Friday Sept 30. CoCoRaHs rainfall for yesterday is attached (please click for clarity). Noting the south shore of LI pretty much missed again. Also, very little rain extreme nw NJ (0.01 this part of Wantage at our home) and POU area. Ian: highest PW-moisture still destined up here but possibly delayed til Sunday Oct2? Ensembles peel the heavier rains eastward just south of our NYC subforum. Presuming it comes up here as a nor'easter, then squally ne winds. All this paragraph still TBD. Finally for all the Mets fans: Ian "may" force one of the Fri or Sat night games to be placed into a day-night double header Sunday Oct 2? Long ways off and timing is everything so maybe these play with normal 720PM starting times, though I foresee delays. 26/1314z
  5. wdrag
    Of interest: no admission in mPing this morning of rain on LI. I checked JFK,LGA, CP--all had traces. DIX-OKX STP has bands of trace-0.01 across parts of our area (OKX more conservative may be more reliable). submitted 1231z/25
  6. wdrag
    TT54 in the sounding you posted... 50kt down to 600MB= all excellent indicators. may see some spot 1" rains by tomorrow morning.
  7. wdrag
    Long ways to go and still some modeling OTS south of us with only a glancing blow. I am not giving up on substantial rainfall beginning here late Friday but modeling across the board favors a 10/1 or 2 event here. Until we get to 96 hours out, I'll hold with that Friday afternoon start but I do understand that the last 24 hours has slowed and may be telling me flat out: WRONG. I just wait out the model solutions. In the meantime... "overall" ensembles have the moisture path favoring passage overhead next weekend. I am not saying anything more than squally winds at this point. Here's one example from the 00z/25 cycle.
  8. wdrag
    Suggest: merging your data with surrounding... and best--get yourself an Ambient weather sensor, or even better, Stratus gage to measure. Stratus is conservative (CoCoRaHs approved) and probably more accurate than the automated gages (especially intense rainfall rates). I know I was embedded low (0.21) but also there was data that suggested that my data FIT. Let's try again tomorrow to compare (new 24 hour map will post late the 26th)since am working part time). Again check gages to ensure your accuracy and reduce any speculation. Note: our area in SVR outlook today so it should be interesting with 1-2 bands of heavy convection.
  9. wdrag
    Monthly summary of rainfall through yesterday 9/23: Central NJ (not shown) has seen expanding drought. NYC reservoir system departure from normal is decreasing from earlier in Sept, now within 8% at about 70.7%.
  10. wdrag
    Rainfall for Sep 22 is attached: My review of XMACIS climate data indicates Poughkeepsie top 30 for the month in the period of record (POR) dating back to 1931 and Bridgeport top 20 since 1948. More expected this Sunday-Sunday night...maybe 0.1-0.8? (HRRR has sprinkles here already Sunday morning) Then Ian uncertainty Sept 30-Oct 2 (my mistake 2 days ago thinking Hermine, but Ian took 12-15 hours longer to be named than I expected). In any case it's debatable how much rain will fall here for the event and of course the beginning of it on Friday the 30th. There is still an option for an east out to sea (OTS) south of us, but the GEPS is the only remaining global ensemble that misses to the south, as of 00z/24. To me that means tropical moisture is coming. How it all plays out in the eastern USA has many solutions. I only present a super ensemble outlook, (attached) for the end of the month as constructed by Tomer Burg. I continue to think we have a chance of 1"+ rain for at least a portion of the NYC forum here on the 30th, but it has to be rated chance as timing and splitting of rain drivers can diminish or delay my own envisioned outcome.
  11. wdrag
    I may start commenting more frequently on upcoming tropical moisture by the end of the month. I'm thinking a little faster than most on this... partly per previous expectations and partly per the EPS continuing to considerably alter it's 500MB features to a favorable track for overrunning rainfall here. If you use the EPS... an east coast heavy rain maker is coming. My confidence for this reality here is slowly increasing per EPS trends. 00z/22 has a shot at (probable next named storm by this time Friday Hermine) a large rain maker making it up here whereas GEFS-GEPS are out to sea south. This includes RRQ upper level jet enhancement with an inverted trough along the coast. I'll add a few graphics in the future if this continues favorable for a 9/30 arrival. Uncertainties: Lat-Lon eastward OTS turn and timing, whether its up here in 8 days or first few days Oct. Meanwhile, I may be posting info on BDR monthly rainfall ranking this evening. For now at 4.46 with more to come.
  12. wdrag
    Haven't had much to say the past week or so, just riding out all the model fluctuations. I don't think the SPC HREF did very well yesterday...attached CoCoRaHs amounts. You're seeing all the models. I am hopeful this long anticipated potential transition for NYC PWat 2.3" by the end of the month (sometime the last the 5 days) works out and that we're not seeing this potential east coast impacting tropical moisture event shunted out to sea to our south, which is the more probable option as this is writing off the model trends through 06z/20. 00z-06z/20 EC GFS operational models and ensemble 7 day pcpn expectations are trending favorably to something coming up the coast before peeling seaward. Today is the 20th... so we have 3 day more days of ensemble trends to find out for sure whether there is excitement in the air for a big rain maker here the last couple days of the month, after whatever happens late this weekend (25th). So a BDR record monthly rainfall is on my mind...right now still very low probability.
  13. wdrag
    Looks below normal next 10 days, but not necessarily bone dry. I can see nw flow thunderstorms sinking into our area this Monday-Tuesday. In part depends if 500MB ridge is MO-TN, or over the northeast as per the GEPS. Dont know for sure, but I am not taking the models at face value next week and thereafter. Attached: CoCoRaHs past two days, and past 10 days. Also HPRCC past two weeks percent departure from normal. Click for more detail. All storms this afternoon only benefitted Catskills portion of the NYC watershed (still a little less than 10% below normal overall) eastward to northern two thirds CT
  14. wdrag
    .54 in this part of nw NJ overnight (wantage NJ). .86 total two day. Added a snapshot of CoCoRaHs past 24 hours. Click for detail. My cards on the table for for end of the month. EPS seems to be trending trough in th east end of the month, GEPS slightly as well but already responding with its 7 day rainfall anomaly attached. EPS/GEFS not at this time so uncertainty but that is what I'm looking for up here. PW near 2.3 sometime last 4-5 days of the month and attempting to push BDR monthly to near 3#1. Can it... very very long shot but right now, BDR at 4.18 for the month is ranked #25 out of 72 years of data. If the toughing does not heave the WAR at the end of the month, then my expectation is wrong.
  15. wdrag
    Will update either at 830A or 5P... but drought alleviating rains have further occurred excepting parts of LI... you may want to stay tuned on LI as well for this afternoon. There is more to come today after the early morning batch ends. and after another probably drier than normal spell of weather over the next 6-10 days 14th to possibly24th, I think we'll be looking at tropical moisture advancing north or northeastward (GMEX-east coast the last 5-6 days of the month). How that plays still tbd..., but drought monitor almost certainly has to show improvement when it posts Thursday. BDR monthly CLI may become interesting to review after we wrap up today. Have a day.
  16. wdrag
    Quick early CoCoRaHs: probably my last on this first part of the rains. If interested, please click for detail.
  17. wdrag
    .32 Wantage NJ
  18. wdrag
    In my opinion you're on top of it... I use Ambient, check it with Stratus gauge (CoCoRAHs). Stratus usually a little less than Ambient and thats what I post. Radarscope App for $10/year is easily well worth the expense. Add mPing for obs, and Pivotal Weather to Trop Tidbits for model guidance and that's about as good as you can do for the dollar, not being in the NWS office.
  19. wdrag
    Added Radar sensor adjusted rainfall for the entire event. That doesn't get into some of excess details both heavier and lighter but a good idea of what occurred. Also NYC reservoir system now down to less 10% below normal as of 12z/8. On drought monitor: This is for totals only through 12Z Tuesday.? We had pretty good rains Tuesday and out here in extreme nw NJ/ne PA and se NYS into Wednesday afternoon, both probably not incorporated into this weeks report. The data cutoff for Drought Monitor maps is each Tuesday at 8 a.m. EDT. The maps, which are based on analysis of the data, are released each Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Intensity and Impacts Future: Presuming that modeling is gathering consensus, two shots at decent qpf. The first late Sunday-Monday morning---widespread 1/2-1.5" with WPC having upped the ante in the 16z/8 posts and even a slight chance excessive into se PA/sw NJ in its D4 update. Second shot of significant rain, possibly lesser amounts Tuesday compared to early Monday? but both of these will be helpful, except maybe for s and e LI??? I won't confidently state where less but for now 12z/8 multi modeling has less for that area. Both 12z/8 GFS-EC for both dates above, seem to have PW approaching 2" across NJ- e tip LI. Instability looks decent (subzero Mixed layer LI) and Cape 1500J Monday and 500J + on Tuesday. In any case, I think the drought monitor could show another decrease in severity next Thursday, presuming we get that 1/2-1.5" and its incorporated into the assessment by 12z/Tuesday the 13th. LONGGGGG shot but maybe we'll see a chance of tropical moisture (PW>2.3" in my mind) coming up the coast the last 6 days of the month? No matter: Climate sites at BDR/POU in our area ?may? be of interest to monitor for monthly totals after 9/14.
  20. wdrag
    Attached CoCoRaHs 4 day totals: That together with previous posts should do it. Late today, the radar sensor combo will be available to post.
  21. wdrag
    It's CoCoRaHs observers... I'll update 4 day with what is available at 9A today. Also will try to find another radar-sensor resource and try to complete the loop at that time. BUT ground truth as yours helps to add perspective that substantial rain (2+) occurred on parts of LI as well. Thank you. This Sunday night-Tuesday night looking good for widespread 1/2-4" in our subforum as EC is speeding up. My own confidence on this occurrence is 75-80%. Only the GEFS is slow. Think we'll see WPC beefing up in near future D5-7. Looks like spotty excessive (5+) Appalachians to the east coast coming this weekend-early next week Am still speculating that we're way overdue for a pure tropical event here at the end of the month but can't happen with westerly flow across the country.
  22. wdrag
    Not the GFS... interesting battle. Ensembles suggest to me two events... the lower Miss Valley WAA push by late Sunday or Monday morning, and then whatever happens with the newly developing Great Lakes - Ohio Valley closed low and associated confluence - strong RRQ of Quebec 200MB jet core Tuesday-Wednesday night. I think this has potential big rains here but confidence not quite as high as what just occurred. Noting EC/GGEM have the Lower Miss Valley low shooting out a pretty good 500mb vort max across NYC subforum late Sunday as seen on Trop tidbits.
  23. wdrag
    fwiw...todays report increased the capacity 0.9% (significant 1 day in my opinion). Will check tomorrow afternoon as will post a 4 day CoCoRaHs total which should show some large 4-6" amounts ne PA, se NYS near the tri states corner (HPoint).
  24. wdrag
    Good Wednesday morning, I read complaints about less than 1" rain fall--parts of the e 2/3rd LI and near I78 in NJ. Everyone else had 1+ with many reports 3-5" ne PA-nw NJ se NYS-CT. The region nw of NYC is the important part for NYC drinking water. Overall, I think the modeling did VERY well attempting to highlight general rainfall, including MAX 7-10" and the bands as Bluewave and others pointed out. 1970--- that wouldn't be happening. Lawns (Cone Flowers)--not critical. Droughts are natural processes and so they exert stress but if we manage... we get through it. I've attached, for what it's worth ,the NYC Reservoir system which as of 9/6 was 11% below normal. Today and tomorrow it will be less below normal as it continues to pour in parts of these reservoir areas as well as heavier rains getting ready to spread southward for a few hours from e PA and extreme northern NJ into west central NJ, before fading tonight. Have a day.
  25. wdrag
    Attached are 3 day CoCoRaHs totals: we are not done yet across the interior especially tri- state corner. The dry slot previously advertised is why outlooks were for 1/2-4". Parts of e LI were under 1/2". Definitely drier near I78 than initially modeled but beneficial nonetheless. Next event instead of Sun-Mon will be Mon-Tue as cued by models and a sampler of 48 hour rainfall is attached ending 00z/Wed (Tue evening dinner). The placement will adjust in our subforum. PW will approach 2" across NJ, again. Speed of front and proximity of sfc low passage will determine max axis...
×
×
  • Create New...