wdrag
-
Posts
4,482 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by wdrag
-
A few notes: So we had Wednesday show up with some junky weather, including bit of rain-drizzle, minor... CoCoRaHs attached. Also attached the 4 day totals. You'll note amounts on one day do not up on a subsequent day. I think that is in part due to lack of data from the CoCoRaHs observer (inconsistent daily reporting or a programming problem). So beneficial amounts were observed but no 4" in our area. The beneficial amounts translated into the drought monitor attached and you can see slow drought shrinkage between the weeks reports of the Oct 25 left and Oct 18 right. Finally NYC reservoir info started reporting again and now about 3% below normal (attached), a vast improvement from 6-8 weeks ago. The future: Rain late Sunday and Monday in bands. Then how soon does it go away. Does it linger a bit for Tue? Thereafter next weekend (11/5-6): jury out in the midst of the big ridge aloft. Still may need to contend with a frontal boundary in the area and possible RRQ of upper level jet - overrunning from the weakening midwest trough?
-
Almost 1 tenth inch in ~1 hour in Wantage NJ ending around 445P. Walt
-
Minor measuring out here in Sussxx County during mid afternoon.
-
So the past 24 hours so the dribble but the 1+ axis occurred about 80-90 miles east of where multiple models (00z-06z/25 HRRR, EC/UK, SPC HREF) indicated. Model bust on location. I day dribble totals and 3 day totals attached from CoCoRaHs obs through 9A Wed 10/26/22. Click for clarity if you wish. These beneficial rains can only mitigate the residuals of the summer drought. Drought monitor updates Thursday morning. Next week... I think it continues on the table for above normal rainfall Monday-Saturday via one or 2 events. It's possible I may need to add a day on the back end (next Sunday Nov 6) but for now, I continue with what EPS/GEPS ensembles have been implying. I wish the GEFS was on board but so far NOT.
-
Back to now: CoCoRaHs 24 hours rainfall through 9A this morning, and the last image is the two day. Please click for clarity if interested. Noting several near 1.8" in our area, with near the CT RRV 2-2.6", so far. Periods of low top dribble today, looking like a T-0.1" today (9A-9P). the PW increases above 1.5" for much of LI/CT tonight as unstable PWAT arrives from the southeast and TT grows to near 50 (EC). Thinking we will see corridors of mdt-possible heavy showers invade from the south tonight with most areas T-0.1, but LI/CT could see a narrow band of near 1" between 9P tonight and 9A Wednesday (Isolated embedded thunder?). More dribble Wed afternoon-evening DRY Thursday-most of Sunday, then we'll see how it evolves for next Mon[Halloween]-Sat Nov 5 when EPS-GEPS continue above normal qpf (not as bold as earlier days but still decidedly favoring 1 or 2 good sized wet events next week)
-
Attached D1 rainfall via CoCoRaHs for your comparisons. Click for clarity. Will add D2,3,4 and total D1-4 as future days complete. Suppose there will be drying aloft that may negate much of the heavier rains tonight-Wed night but PWAT nwwd push of around 1.5" continues til the remains of Joslyn RH arrives from the southwest. Note I see no comment NWS on this dissipating Joslyn embedded moisture band ahead of the cleansing cold frontal passage Wed night, so it's probably at worst a nominal contribution. Heaviest rain in our area so far through 8AM EDT Monday Oct 24, appears to be central NJ. Wantage about 0.17 and increasing. The future: after drying out Thursday for a nice Fri-Sat-early Sunday (Oct 28-30), then I think we can look forward to what appears to be one or 2 significant 1+ rain events for the area between Halloween and Saturday night Nov 5. EPS/GEPS continue prior days suggestions. DEP NYC reservoir data has not updated since Oct 14.
-
Anyway, looks to me like the EPS was well onto this and first to lead us to a potentially wet scenario, about a week ago. I know many think 10 day daily forecasts of temp and rain/no rain are helpful-reliable, but this is another case when beyond day 4 or 5, rain/no rain is not, in my opinion, wise to express in one image. We just can't reliably post a one image of weather beyond 4 or 5 days. Temp probably has a halfway decent idea within a range of 5F or so degrees... but weather = NOT. We continue to do this and when I see this, I start looking for downfall---what can wrong. That's what prompted me to look last weekend. So, I don't know how much rain in any location but by 15z Thursday, my guess is a likely 2-4" in a narrow N-S band or two. Primary suspect is somewhere LI/CT but also can't rule out something near the DE River in NJ/PA (NLCS impact this afternoon?) where the nwwd trend of PWAT sort of stalls, before,,, ???? Joslyn, yes Joslyn, it's leftover dissipating PWAT arrives sometime Wed/early Thu. Finally a period of dry weather should arrive by Fri. Otherwise, lots and lots of clouds today-Thu morning, and after the initial good pulse of rains later today-tonight, sporadic areas of a couple hours of drizzle or showers daily Mon-Thu morning. AND, unclear to me still, but several ensembles have above normal rainfall here the first few days of Nov...a persistent signal especially EPS/GEPS.
-
Yes, still too much variability but 12z EC op continues narrow band 4+ by 00z/Thu. You'll probably get your wish for Sun-Wed but... eventually even NJ will get into the act as EPS/GEPS ensembles in early Nov are notably above normal qpf. Of interest is how fast the central Atlc storm (sub trop?) can push west. Seems like latest 12z/21 guidance is strengthening as it moves west. Also Roslyn in the east Pac... seems to have a moisture bead eventually spewiing into a portion of the eastern USA. How it all melds is unknown for me, but for myself, worthy of monitoring 23rd-Nov 5 around here. Too much trough to our south and southwest to ignore.
-
06z/21 EC op with spotty 4+ (yellow) by Monday evening. My guess is more coming Tue-Wed... timing and details/location throughout uncertain but here's another example of steadfast EC on a substantial event for a portion of our area...still favored LI/CT where inverted trough resides. Seems like an interesting entire week upcoming (to me) for substantial rainfall. Not a lock of course, but pattern to me favors continued s-sw flow aloft all week with pulses of jet energy developing clusters of showery nne moving rains along and e of the Apps.
-
Unsure whether anyone has posted on potential for heavy rain in our NYC subforum: Since last weekend when the EPS caught my eye on the southeastern USA closed low. The EC op has cyclically for I think at least 6 consecutive 12z/00z cycles been forecasting spotty 5" amounts by Wed night the 27th. It's location has varied across mostly LI/CT. So while it is likely to be spread out between Sunday afternoon-Wed night... it may become of interest for a few of our members. GEPS and GEFS not as enthusiastic so no guarantee. Fairly impressive long duration general southerly flow aloft/inverted trough. EPS has 2" LI by Wednesday. Could be a little thunder too, especially LI. Myself here in nw NJ, am anticipating several outdoor activity interruptions late Sunday-Thursday in periods of showery rains/drizzle.
-
Attached: Event total for yesterday, and the combined two event totals late last week and yesterday. Click for clarity. Final batch of heavier rain was further east (E LI) where its still raining a bit at this time with only T-.05 NJ coast NYC overnight. Yesterday: Yankee evening game was rained out, lightning here and there and a few reports of small hail but rainfall not quite as heavy as expected. Still decent. Onward to what may or may not happen late Sunday-Monday in our NYC subform. OKX has responded in its early morning forecast with a 30% chance of showers. That's all you need right now to permit stakeholder consideration of uncertainty.
-
Anyone notice recent EPS and to a lesser extent GEPS/GEFS qpf late Sunday-Monday the 23rd-24th. Just heard some bright dry forecasts in that time frame. Have my doubts... and I'd play it cautious about promising dry weather in that time frame. WPC has a hint.
-
Already many reports of 0.1-0.5" today just w of I95 and over parts of LI. Lightning today through about 6P, attached. I feel like forecasters are quitting the rain too soon. Front slowing with still TD 50 MSV/NJ at 630P... with cooling 500MB. Am expecting another decent batch of most (isolated TRW+) rainfall to develop as a wave along the front across NJ crossing LI CT 10P-4A. Yankee game may have some rain problems from the initial dying batch of showers crossing I95. I just see too much rushing the drying in here. Too much sw flow at high levels. Wantage 0.14" at 650P and continuing to rain. Had thunder here this afternoon. Also have seen mPING small hail reports from se NYS to ePA. Will try to send a wrap up CoCoRAHs rainfall report at 9A Tue. Have a good night.
-
Back to weather: TT tomorrow up to 51 (EC) in the first bunch of convection. Could be interesting near NYC with a small hailer? and or/thunder? WPC qpf issued the past couple of cycles looks too conservative and I saw SPC shifted the thunder risk eastward of NYC. Not sure why...but they probably have more and better guidance than I. I can see running less less than 0.1 near TTN-ABE otherwise I can see two bands of showers, one in the morning 4A-11A and one late day or night with occurrence sometime between 4P Mon-4A Tue. The yield I think may be more similar to the 12z/15 EC/RGEM/HRDPS. That said: I think the12z/15 GFS & SPC HREF are too conservative. To me this is an interesting event, despite the overall boring summer-early fall. By the way NYC reservoir now within 7% of capacity...still low but ok and slightly closer to norm. Will post Tue around 9A the combined two event totals (late last week and tomorrow's).
-
I agree: Mesonet is sparsely populated compared to CoCoRaHs... try that. This event had tow or three big bands. Largest nest the De River, a secondary NJ Coast one into w CT, then something I think e LI.
-
CoCoRaHs two day totals. Click for more detail. May see iso 4" two event total by 12z Tue the 18th but unlikely. Most ensembles are 1/4-1/2" for next Monday.
-
algorithms. Someone from NWS should reply if they have an answer. I've been gone 4 years so am out of touch on details. Thanks. Walt
-
JFK 1.22. CP 0.99. Others will contribute more and please click the CoCoRaHs map for more detail. Will post the two day in 5 min. Thanks, Walt
-
Sometimes, but often I think they are much closer to reality than this past event. My guess NWS does too, since they use this info to initiate FFW/FLW's for basins and sub basins.
-
Correct: Digital radar totals were less than reality all day.
-
Drought diminishing - we'll see it in next Thursdays 10/20 post. Here are prelim 1 day CoCoRaHs maps, and a 2 day total from the NYS mesonet. Some spots only 0.4" but many 1-3". Wantage NJ my Ambient 2.52 but two stratus official CocoRaHs stations 2.39" which I think is more accurate (I am not a CoCoRaHs observer). I'll get two day totals up around 9A via CoCoRahs. More coming this coming Monday the 17th. Whether we will see iso 4" two event totals, probably not but still tbd. Later, Walt
-
Pretty good event. Digital storm totals from multiple radars looks too low. My ambient has 1.8 probably closer to 1.6 here in Wantage but attached are some climate site data... More to come overnight as this does not end til near dawn Friday.
-
Overnight rain ending early this Thursday morning 10/13/22. Click for greater details. I see .44 se LI coast.
-
Good Thursday morning everyone, Think it may be an interesting next 5 days around here with isolated 4" amounts somewhere in the NYC subform. My best guess is w CT. In sum: Modeling is poor along the east coast for qpf ending the 6 hrs at 8AM this morning. As you saw Tatamy with 0.23. Here in Wantage 0.03 and still raining. ATL area wasn't handled very well by the models this morning either (all considerably bereft of qpf). For qpf between now and 12z Friday I will follow HRRR, HRDPS, RGEM. Just not sure why GFS has been stuck so far west... and so it's part of the options, but not one that I favor. Sunday-Monday: looks interesting to me as modeling is trying to take some short waves (or a single short wave?) and carve out quite a cold closed low aloft in NYS/e Great Lakes somewhere. Ahead of that has be a pretty good pulse of WAA. That should yield widespread rain here, some of it heavy for a few hours...maybe more so NJ/LI/southernNew England?
-
For what its worth: Some 2022 NWS evaluation of tracking for IAN, and note the overall 2021 season stats. So this one was not so good for the GFS (2022). Please see attached..2021 first. Ian second. I did not attach intensity stats so as to keep this a little simpler. This presentation may have already appeared on the American Weather Mid Atlantic forum.
