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Attached what I look at once/day... and so after this more seasonable or above normal stretch... NAEFS (at least 50 members GFS/CMC) cools down here toward the 5th or so of Dec as the block is evidenced over Greenland. Hope yes... but reality tbd. I looked at yesterdays 00z/22 extended GEFS through 800 hours and it appears the 500MB jet is constantly over the mid Atlantic states (more or less W-E). I see that as N-S thermal gradient in the eastern USA and fairly frequent waves of low press-cfp's here with wintry mix opportunity...but from what I can tell, snow-ice most favorable for the I84 corridor. Climo would say that as well. I just can't confidently tell about ECS in the ensembles, beyond 5 or 6 days. That's why I don't comment much in LR, unless I run with a very broad overview, allowing for the various options. So for now... I 84 corridor northward smattering of minor brief snow-ice prior to Dec 5. After that, improved chances-again that's climo. The good news... in my opinion WAR not likely after the 5th of Dec, for a week or two. At least the shopping windows will be viewed in somewhat wintry chill.

In the meantime: NWS Blend of models into Dec 2 not showing much, as per the NAO discussions above.

Quick wrap on accums last eve. CoCoRaHs reports. I know I had 0.5" in Wantage. Attached also the NAM3K 16 hours before the event(+snow depth change). Still looks basically not much to talk about through Nov, regarding any widespread hazardous winter wx.

Wantage NJ - this location in Sussex County. & elevation 740MSL. 0.4" brief moderate snow shower embedded in sw-. temp down to 30.6. Dewpoint up 10F to 28.9 so we still have a chance for one more shot of snow here in Sussex County prior to 915PM. Pavement mostly wet but slight acscums here and there. This snow will still be visible at sunrise Saturday..no rain and warming temps to wipe it out like Wednesday morning. Yea!

I definitely expect travel problems Warren/Hunterdon/Sussex County west and north into east Central-ne PA, especially higher terrain. I think someone posted some where that most travel accidents occur with less than 2" in the forecast, or was that on the roads? Here's where an early SPS highlights issues and brings more attention to what I saw on media the past two days for this coming afternoons event (presuming HRRR modeling is correct). I'm sure many travelers are going to be surprised when they run into a band of moderate snow showers and temps falling to freezing during the snow.

My full post in nw-ne suburbs... but I plan on NYC seeing flurries this evening with measurable snowfall in stripes from near Philly to north of I84...most of the impact nw NJ/e PA/ se NYS and CT---in stripes. Basically T-1" in a 1 to 2 hour period 4P-midnight. NYC melts on contact (probably), presuming am correct about the large low lvl moist unstable sounding producing flurries to NYC and measurable to the west and north. Consistently modeled since at least back to 00z/17 cycle.

Good Friday morning, Nov 18. Still no further widespread snow-ice events consistently multi modeled for our entire I84 corridor membership before December. However... PA and NJ from just north of Philly northward to the I84 corridor inclusive of Allentown-Scranton, nw NJ and maybe even to CT will see a period or two of snow showers between 4PM and midnight today. Road conditions could quickly deteriorate from wet to slightly snow covered and slippery during the evening drive time. Snowfall will be variable from a trace to around 1 inch, most of it in a one or two hour period. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather and road conditions. Added one example of modeled areal coverage late today.

Continues with the 12z/17 HRRR. There is hope for some convective snow tomorrow afternoon-evening and also noting spotty convective snow possible mid afternoon today across NNJ/NE PA.

Continues with 12z HRRR.

Note: fwiw...have tempo posted in nw suburbs... but fwiw...NYC may see a slight amount of snow (1" west of NYC?) late Friday...multiple mesoscale models with the event.

Mya see a surprise 1/2-1" of snow parts of the I84 corridor down to just north of Philly Friday afternoon-evening as a weak area of low pressure possibly scoots through NJ. also fwiw: My guess is up to around an inch of snow in parts of the Poconos this Thursday morning. Wild solutions for the day after Thanksgiving into that holiday weekend. Many pointing to a heavy precip event with quite a bit of wind along the coast. Far tooo early to know the flavor, rain, ice or snow and how far north-west.

I don't study these situations in quite the detail as I did when working NWS, but... some of the factors are probably related to less qpf up north, some valley reports?, and timing best lift just south in our I84 area...maintaining enough dendrites to make it to the ground. Less lift=less chance keeping all snow and more sleet-freezing rain in the similar thermal profile. I didn't check all the ice data but in my opinion, the GFS/NAM total positive snow depth change worked better than the EC. The EC also missed the icing down into Sussex County higher terrain and the Poconos. US models triumphed inside 84 hours. As an aside: I was driving an ambulance (volunteer WTFAS) in the heavier snow band around 7P last evening and the snow reflection off the strobe blue and red light was very very cool. Patient lived.

Added CoCoRaHs numbers to clarify early morning post (in the early morning post).

Good Wednesday morning everyone. I-84) survived the first little winter weather event of the season. Generally, 0.5-2.5" of snow fell last evening with a little sleet, and freezing rain but it's winding down now. Just be a little careful stepping outside prior to 9AM as there may be some residual slipperyness underfoot. Temps rise into the 40s today so melting occurs. Old Forge NY: some snow and ice this morning. Then periods of snow or squalls late today and especially Thursday into Friday, and again Sunday into Monday. Follow local advisories and warnings up there. Old Forge itself should see over half a foot from all this. Isolated spots up there east of Lake Ontario could see 20" by next Monday night. I'll add a map of last evenings snow amounts around 930AM, otherwise, since it's only blustery and cold at times the next 10 days, I don't plan on posting again prior to Thanksgiving weekend. Widespread hazardous wintry weather is not currently expected in our area (except Old Forge) prior to November 25 and possibly til December. Yes, there will be spotty snow showers leaking out of the snow belts into the I84 corridor into this coming Monday but amounts will be small and mostly reserved for the Poconos. Added CoCoRaHs maps for I84 corridor. Let the numbers tell a good story. Click for clarity.

Wantage NJ 4 sw or 8S of High Point: first snow and sleet of the season that we all notice in nw NJ. IP- began 5P. to snow ~530P changed to sleet and freezing rain around 730PM. 0.7" solid snow cover on most everything except slight slushy spots on pavement here and there. That might be my final for the night. 31F here at 740', originally posted 809P.

Wantage NJ 4 sw: first snow and sleet of the season that we all notice. IP- began 5P. to snow ~530P changed to sleet and freezing rain around 730PM. 0.7" solid snow cover on most everything except slight slushy spots on pavement here and there. That might be my final for the night. 31F here at 740' and time of post to NWS 809P

Wantage NJ 0.3" and 31 at 620P. Colder at High Point.

Wantage NJ at 740' MSL. 0.3" since light sleet changed to snow at about 530P. Current 31F. even driveway pavement getting slushy. Looking good here.

I84 corridor: Trace-2" snow and sleet between 6P-midnight Tuesday changing to a period of freezing rain overnight. Untreated pavements in the hills---above 700 feet should get slippery for a time Tuesday evening. Southern edge of wintry precipitation roughly Allentown PA to Morristown NJ then up to just southeast of Sturbridge MA. Entire I84 corridor involved for a few hours..again untreated surfaces slippery so plan on a little extra caution Tuesday evening. Old Forge NY: nice snowfall early Wednesday followed by lake effect snows Thursday-weekend with a pretty good chance of at least half a foot in the period Wed morning-Sunday night. 735A/14 Also: seasonal snowfall Wantage past three seasons: 19-20. 20.7 20-21 60.3 21-22. 26.0 Winter behaving this year and I like that. Hopefully we can see seasonal snowfall exceed 30" this year (normal is over 40 for this location).

Wantage NJ in far nw NJ 1.12. Added a CoCoRaH color coded rainfall map to show the main axis of bigger rainfall was Appalachians west. Poor day 5-7 ensemble tracking that initially had the primary Nicole decay path to our southeast, then over us and then eventually shifted west of us inside of day 5. EPS/GEFS D4-D1 had best axis of heavy swath of QPF. 2022-23 winter: For me caution on ensemble best track Day 5 and beyond...merge the possibilities. No noticeable obvious improvement in tracking from around D5 and beyond.

For the record and nothing to do with today: I expected a sizable 1+" event within a period of Oct 31-Nov 5 or 6. It did not happen. EPS was far too robust and GEFS was much better with GEPS in between. Models still have lots and lots of uncertainty regarding qpf beyond 5 days though attempting to tell us something. Attached the meager numbers for the period in question.

Wantage NJ- this part, around 0.10 and much the same for most of Sussex and Warren Counties in nw NJ, since sprinkles began early this morning, Most of the rain 9A-11A. 65/64

G3 postponed ~7P, one day to Tue night 803P. Significant rainfall and timing of same, makes a difference.

Hope reigns supreme that the very warm start to Nov ends up colder than normal so we can have back-back Oct-Nov below normal T (CP). Then we need an average start to snowfall late Nov-Dec to have a chance at a normal snowy winter. Odds might be against us with the climate trends showing Dec warming the most of the winter months in recent years. We just aren't very good at long ranging yet. At least CPC has us in the storm track but not necessarily snowy. -NAO would help at the timely approach of storms.

WS G3, and a look back at ensembles for Oct 30-Nov 5-6. Rain may play a role in tonights outcome in PHL. EPS was way too wet for this week (GEFS driest and possibly best). Tonights rain probably 0.1-0.8", topped off with possible convection early Tue afternoon which might have a small hailer. Next weekend probably 500MB ridge protective dry and warm though still a chance for a Sunday break down (6th).