wdrag

Good Thursday morning everyone. Dec 15. Snow amount confidence is below average for the I84 corridor because of mixed snow-sleet-rain, and temperatures marginal for sticking. Attempted details follow, along with 3 maps inclusive of the 3AM NWS snow amount forecast. Note there is very little cold air to draw into this storm with temperatures already above freezing from Boston all along the east coast and Worcester is sitting only at about freezing. This combined with the rather warm 1000-500MB thicknesses poses a challenge for 4" amounts occurring nw NJ (FWN) to POU. Power outages seem to be a potential problem Poconos-Berkshires in 32-33F heavy wet snow of 6+" tonight and gusty winds 25-35 MPH. mPing: Anyone notice its posting delays for businesses now. I still think models selecting precip types and assigning snowfall in each time period is questionable. 00z/15 EC is down. In my opinion: temps at 1PM here in nw NJ will decide how much sticks. If it's 35, the warmer models prevail. If its 32F the colder models prevail. Later Thursday through Friday Dec 22-23: A potentially stronger storm with heavier snowfall but also a possible change to rain-ice? Wind may gust 50-60 MPH everywhere in the northeast USA for a short period of time. Christmas (24th-27th): Blustery with the coldest temperatures so far this winter, for a couple of days. Maps attached: The NWS deterministic forecast that went into this mornings forecasts. An ensemble map of snowfall by sunrise Friday and an impact severity map. Please click the maps for greater clarity, using the color bar for your area of interest and see a little explanation of each one. Use the color bar for the experimental winter severity index, the SPC HREF only through 7A. Friday, and the NWS deterministic forecast for their 4AM forecasts of this morning.

06Z/14 EC and latest 09z/14 SREF say I'm an inch or 2 too low on high amounts Poconos extreme nw Sussex County and w CT/W MA. Not guaranteeing anything. Willcheck again at 6P today. Have fun with this.

Good morning, I'm probably an outlier and possibly wrong but am concerned about model snow conversion rates in mixed events and 543-546 1000-500MB thickness . NAM tends to be better in these situations with mid level warming so I am conservative on this. I don't like embarrassing myself so I put this out there, with low confidence on all this being reasonable and I could be too low on my expectations. Just don't like the NAM warming aloft. It. continues to look like the northeast USA will see two or three wintry impact storms between the 15th and 28th, sandwiching a briefly much colder than normal period between the 24th and 27th (Christmas weekend). Thursday-Friday Dec 15-16: Mainly I-84 corridor north to Canada. Baltimore starts it off with a little ice 4A-9A Thursday morning which should slow the morning commute, otherwise mostly rain there. Philly area may see a little ice or snow at the beginning 8A-11A Thursday but it too is of short duration and low impact, except possibly the distant western Philadelphia suburbs. Advisories are posted. I-84 corridor itself will see a few hours of snow-sleet Thursday afternoon-night eventually change to rain by Friday morning, then possibly end as snow or flurries late Friday. Timing of the changes is stated with low confidence. The longer it snows, the better chance for heavier amounts but for now the breakdown follows: Easton Pa-Warren County: Snow sleet begins 11A-Noon and changes to plain rain 6P-9P Thursday with maybe an inch or 2 of slush. It may be very slippery for a time. The rest of the storm is rain. An advisory is posted. Poconos: a Winter Storm Watch continues: Snow-sleet-freezing rain begins around Noon Thursday changing to virtually all rain by midnight Thursday night (except ice highest elevations) then back to snow midday Friday. All totaled: looks like 3-7" before the snow ends Friday night. Confidence on details is low... but it will be very slippery at times Thursday afternoon and evening. Sussex County NJ: snow sleet should begin 11A-1P Thursday changing to all rain by midnight Thursday evening, except possibly several hours of ice along the NYS border-High Point. My expectation is 1-4". Best chance of 4"=High Point area while best chance for lower amounts of 1 or 2" is Newton southeast to Byram-Hopatcong area. This storm could end as a little wet snow Friday afternoon-evening but most areas would see less than 1" additional, if that. w CT and interior MA: snow should begin 4P-8P Thursday then turn to sleet and finally over to rain by sunrise Friday or possibly continue as wet snow parts of w MA. Most of this area should see 1-3" of snow before the change to rain, but the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills might end up with 4-8" in a few spots--maybe more un there in the Berkshires?? Ashford CT and Bostons northwest suburbs I see you an inch or less with snow with possibly mostly rain this event. You might get most of your snow Friday night as the storm heads out to sea... NWS deterministic forecast at 3A today; plus NWS ensemble probs for 2" and 4+". Click for clarity and use color bars.

Hi... I've seen 12 and 18z/13 guidance and the slight eastward drift--- heavier snowfall for the I84 corridor Berks/Litchfield to the Pocs/nw Nj and Easton PA. Hopefully this holds. I'm not committing to this being correct... have too often seen that the snow turns to sleet with modeled temps to 0C between 900-750MB. NAM3K is colder than than the 12KM NAM. Hope that's right! VV will be important. Meanwhile RGEM trimming slightly. or me... Sussex County 1-5 allowing higher side based on 12z/18z general trends. I think NWS Watch is solid for the POCS. No matter, I see a slippery Thu eve commute here in nw NJ/all of ne PA. Will rearview at 6A Wed.

I think the NAM and GFS GGEM should start melding through 00z/Fri on this 12z/13 run. You'll know before I... always hope. This is not completely locked as posted 6A-8A today.

Hi! Please see new guidance posted at 8A... a couple previous post. I just think overall this has to be less than Sunday but I could see Pocs 3-6... a little less Litchfield and Berks... follow NWS as well. Will be gone all day. 809A/13

Always hope.. 06z/13 EC snow depth change is only 1" less than Kuchera. Also attached 09z/13 SREF snow depth change ending 15z/16. Use as you wish.

Quick note: am playing this one for the I84 corridor as LESS snowfall than that of this past Sunday. Impact may be similar due to occurrence mostly between 4P and 4A Friday but so far, can't get excited about snowfall above that of Sunday. nw NJ Sussex County: am thinking 1-2" snow will suffice for now with some sleet and probably a touch of ice.

and. the 18z EC has about 1" in western NJ by 06z/16. I can live with an inch or 2 as a start in nw NJ with the heavier snowfall in the Pocs. I just don't yet buy the further se GFS/RDPS. Also with these warm thicknesses, unless the short wave can burrow beneath us, I think the future NAM cycles will warm mid levels and more ice faster northwest. Fingers crossed that I'm real wrong but I would not brief an EM on the heavier scenario of the GFS/NAM...only note in passing but preparation for the lesser still slippery onset is I think best at this time.

Thanks. Unfortunately GFS. I hope GFS locks on at 60-72 hours. Next several cycles should indicate something steady. I did see the 18z RDPS is well southeast of its prior inland heavier snowband. !8Z EC slightly colder but with sleet to HP arriving 00z/16 which makes sense to me at a 546 thickness.

Few notes: Again I wouldn't go 10-1 ratio. Two reasons: split model ptype always adds snow 10 to 1. IP is treated as snow. If you want, at early stages, I'd merge positive snow depth change with 10 to 1. For sure NWS just doesn't use a straight 10 to 1 in producing its snowfall, exception possibly for a short 6 hr period in the event. In this case: I checked Sparta NJ thermal profile and it has temps near freezing ~750MB Thursday evening... and the 1000-500 thickness is above 540. I think it helps to be a little cautious at early stages. Main upper low at 500MB is west and northwest of us. Anyway, hope you're right about as much or more snow here in nw NJ than what we enjoyed yesterday. Dendrite growth on the 18z/12 NAM is supportive of a 2-3 hour inch/hr, provided it doesn't get any warmer at 750MB here in Sussex County. Fingers crossed.

Hi... saw the 18z NAM. First batch 1-5" east to west, and most of the accumulation, if not all, starts just west of I95. Here are 12z/12 ensembles through 360 hours (15 days). Again favors interior. Doesn't lock out the coast, but interior I think is best choice until we see a considerable eastward shift in the ensembles. Not impossible to shift east but for reliability considerations, I favor inland. NWS blend of models, also 12z/12, attached last (only through 10 days). So it too allows a little on the coast, but favors interior. TOP yo bottom: EPS, CMC, GEFS through D15. Bottom is the NWS blend of models through 10 days.

Hi. Here you go...best I can do. NWS Local Storm Reports top and CoCoRaHs bottom. Please click for greater detail. Data cutoff 415PM/12. Hope this helps.

And so those that would like to verify data, here it is. Once the GFS locked on, the positive snow depth from that model I thought was very good. Some models wayyyy to aggressive southern CT.

Thank you Don-OKX for getting the PNS out and communicating on JFK CP etc. Here are LSR and CoCoRaHs reports as of 9A. Click each for clarity.

Maybe some NWS folks can answer this. CLI report at 430PM should answer this unless OKX releases a PNS sooner. OKX directs the climate messaging.

Posted in nw-ne suburbs because that's where I think the greatest impact will be for wintry precipitation, but not impossible for the coast (NYC) next 2-3 winter storms between the 15th-28th. Looks like CP might have gotten some measurable snow??? I see EWR and LGA did. While am still not expecting 1+" of snow prior to Christmas NYC, that could change if modeling blocking forces an eastward track. I do think this next storm will bring a period of 50-60MPH gusts to a part of LI Friday and minor-moderate coastal flooding seems possible at high tide very early Friday morning or midday Friday.

Good Monday morning everyone. Dec 12. Winter is here in the northeast with probably two or three potentially larger impact storms between the 15th and 28th, sandwiching a much colder than normal period between the 24th and 27th. Yesterday: Will post a general snow amount verification at 9AM for yesterdays light to moderate event (depending on your location). In general it worked out fairly well though with a little less in northern Sussex County but a little more western MA (spotty 8" amounts). Thursday-Friday Dec 15-16: Mainly I-84 corridor north to Canada. Baltimore starts us off with a little ice or snow possible at the start early Thursday otherwise mostly rain there. I-84 corridor should see some snow and ice Thursday afternoon eventually change to rain by Friday morning then possibly end as snow or ice late Friday. Too soon to say how much of what-where but several inches possible for the I-84 corridor. Poconos seem to have best chance for 6" in the I84 corridor itself. Snow could still be mostly ice there. Coastal winds Friday may gust 50+MPH along with a chance of minor-moderate coastal flooding at high tide. Tuesday-Wednesday Dec 20-21 or Thu-Fri 22-23: Interior snow-ice to rain again. Some modeling wants to delay this event til Thu-Fri the 22nd-23rd. The message: another large storm for the northeast USA but how much wintry impact and where is VERY uncertain. This is the least confidently stated potential for the next 10 days. Christmas (24th-27th): Colder or even much colder than normal for a few days. One map attached: the chance for significant snow or ice (advisory or warning criteria) for this coming Thu-Fri. The darker green-blue probabilities is where it's almost certain to be a travel problem for 6-18 hours. At 9AM: will add a prelim snow amount verification for yesterday.

Wantage NJ (this south part). 2.7" final.

Wantage NJ (this south part). 2.7" final.

1.6" in Wantage as of 430P. Temp 30, down from 31.3 earlier today. Flurries began around 530A. County and state roads in Sussex County between 3-430P were wet variable 1/2 slush at elevations below 800'. I saw a report from Hopatcong near 2".

I think we need to Sunday-Sunday night. Late Wed-Fri morning of next week has it's uncertainty and now that the GFS has joined the fray, one question becomes track and intensity when it reaches our latitude and how much isallobaric pressure falls centered LI can tuck the wind to NNE over the interior help maintain cold air for ice or snow. LOTS and LOTS of time to change. Is it 995 over LI or 985MB?? Think for now, keep it reigned in as a normal winter nor'easter with snow-ice to rain, wind and a bit of CF at the coast.

12z/10 HRRR is pretty big. 12z/10 NAM looks a little warm, but the NAM3K is colder. Want to see the 12z/10 SPC HREF chill and add an inch or 2 to its previous 48 hrs (by 00z/12z). Am surprised at the HRRR but it matches recent increases in qpf slated for the inverted trough NYC to the Catskills. I like the potential. Added the maximum positive snow depth top (that's a min amount) and the Kuchera (bottom) which is the max amount. I could see in very lite late Sunday precip, briefly turning to drizzle in Sussex County NJ. No matter, plowing looks likely to me, for much of CT/NYS/MA (west of KORH), ne PA and north of I80 in nw NJ.

I don't start threads anymore... I felt it was not in the best interest of some of the participants and also I start threads at certain times, when I sense the event will work. I felt a little pressured by reactions and so I prefer not to rush too much. Anyway, the main thread is where everyone seems to be discussing. So far. Yes, I think Wed-Fri deserves a thread on a potential large scale mixed bag winter storm that will impact millions adversely in one form or another (from airport delays-cancels) to event cancellations, inclusive of possible of all the following:65 MPH wind gusts, heavy snow-ice-rain, coastal flooding, power outages. BUT it has to be worded carefully so it doesn't over excite-over commit and then every winter enthusiast is bummed if it doesn't work out. Ensembles are not favoring the 00z/10 EC/GGEM regarding big snows to the coast. This is not a done deal... GFS always seems late to the table these days on events, despite decent LR idea. To start threads, for me requires daily due diligence. I don't have that time, since I'm still working part time (engineering aide) and am blessed to have extended family-friend considerations inclusive of my wife & 3 grandkids under 3. Again, I'm not yet buying a coastal snowstorm, instead interior snow and ice storm with coastal predominant rain/wind etc. If this verifies as I interpreted...some in this subforum might say MEH? whatever that is. Duration might make this a fairly exceptional storm for the interior northeast, if it pans out...

Good Saturday morning everyone, Dec 10. Multiple winter impacts likely between tomorrow and Christmas. Sunday ending early Monday: am getting the snow blower ready (Wantage) just in case, along and north of i-84. Periods of snow will accumulate on all non-treated pavement especially Sunday night. Some melting occurs during midday Monday. The southern edge of this event is with marginal temps from Easton PA (I78-just south of I-80) into southern Warren County NJ and may be mixed with rain. However, am pretty sure it's all snow along and north of I-80. Plan for a bit of manageable slippery travel Sunday afternoon and night in the I84 corrdior to Old Forge NY. Snow amounts listed below are on grass/decks/roofs. Less on pavement everywhere with melting during the day. Snow intensity varies: briefly moderate at times. ne PA-nw NJ: Snow begins between 7A-1P Sunday (prelim burst of flurries is possible at 5am) Snow ends between 5A and 11A Monday. Expect 2 to 4" in the Poconos and 2-5" Sussex County with isolated 6 or 7" possible near Vernon-Highland Lakes. Overall heaviest northern part of Sussex County. Suspect plowing will be needed in some of this area Sunday night. Easton PA up into Great Meadows of Warren County NJ expect a coating to 1.5". Hartford-Ashford CT-Monson MA-Old Forge NY you begin Noon-4P Sunday with a solid 2-4" expected before it quits as flurries sunrise Monday. Could see some 5-6" amounts in the high terrain of nw CT and the southern Adirondacks-south of Old Forge. Plowing will be needed in parts of CT and western MA. Boston: you may see some snow showers later today or tonight and you're on the edge for 1/2 to 2" between 6P Sunday-6A Monday. One conservative ensemble map this morning shows the best chance for 1"+...you can see the probabilities have increased since yesterday. In the orange area of NYS is the best chance for 6-7" amounts. NWS amounts are less far Northwest NJ and should be considered as a posdsible but fit. I may have gone off the deep end in ne Sussex County NJ where the inverted trough interacts with elevation chill to permit some decent snowfall rates early Monday?? Middle of next week (Wednrsday-Friday). A large potentially higher impact winter storm is coming for the interior northeast USA ust northwest of I95 from VA up through to Canada. Model thinking is a bit colder today and so snow-ice looks predominant over the interior. There might even be snow along the coast. Ensembles still favor a closer track to the coast as proposed yesterday.