wdrag

Quick recheck: NY eve morning. Based on ensembles and ops through 06z/31. We are still in the game for a small snowfall, especially nw-ne suburbs. GFS and its GEFS suite flop back and forth cycle to cycle. Therefore on the fence...yes/no. Still want to see 3 consecutive runs of +snwdepth change, + I'd like the GGEM and EC to add some snow in this Jan 6 period. I think they will but am not certain. All depends on the shape of the weakening 500MB trough crossing the mid Atlantic states 06z/7 (see attached). If it's closed, we're in. Right now, there is a nice confluent zone to our north (see there 500mb attachment) and indications from the 50+ member NAEFS that it will be colder-quicker than previously thought (see attached 00z/6 BL temp) in degrees Celsius). The NAEFS trends seem to be becoming more favorable for a little snow. I'll check back NY Day... in the meantime. Attached the GEFS 06z 24 hour chance of 1+" of snow Jan 6. The NAEFS 500 MB pattern leading up to the event... and the NAEFS 00z/6 BL temp. Snow, if it's to occur, may begin Thursday evening the 5th??? Long Term Day 8-14 via NAEFS. No further cooling implied after what arrives Jan 6-7, but even with above normal temps, as many have said, snow is possible during the climo increasingly colder time of the year. Timing may be important.

Adding to the prior post. Via Polar Weather: Just 06z/30 GEFS 48 hour prob 1" of snow is increasing... whether it holds??? Elevation dependent.

Good Friday morning all! Dec 30. 00z-06z/30 cycles just about complete. I will keep paying attention from Jan 6 afternoon, onwards into mid-month. Main upper level jet will sink to near 35 degrees N lat with a first 250MB jet core moving through the mid-south around Jan 7 - per all ensembles. Implied subtle blocking (above normal heights-normalized view attached) in south central Canada - just west of James Bay, which for me is favorable. The NAEFS D8-14 is clearly cooling the southeast USA (attached). Some sort of low pressure action is implied here in the mid-Atlantic and possibly into the northeast USA. GGEM/EC ops not on board with the flip-flopping GFS op for Jan 6-7, so this first opportunity is far from certain... I'd like to see 3 consecutive 6 hour GFS cycles keep a nice 3"+ positive snow depth change here, before raising hopes any further. I think the EC and GGEM are going to have to start adding a coastal low pressure threat here very soon in future 12z/00z cycles, or this GFS flip flopping snow risk is going to fail for Jan 6-7. In fact the NWS Blend of Models (BOM) which yesterday highlighted snowfall for the NYC subforum is most recently lacking any snow through midday Jan 7. So you can see the Blend of Models flip-flops based on the inputs (I don't think it had the 06z/30 GFS op involved-BOM seems to be lagged by 6 hours). I've attached yesterdays and the the most recent 06z/30 version. Also attached the NAEFS (50+ members GEFS-GEPS) temp prob D8-14; and the EPS normalized 500MB anomaly as an example of the subtle blocking west of James Bay, which is persistent from this time forward into mid month and suggested at times by the GEFS-GEPS. Click and check dates and look for yourself in Tropical Tidbits and the NAEFS web sites. I'll check back tomorrow.

fwiw: This topic started 12/24... in part because I was cued by what I was seeing the 22nd-23rd in the GFS op. From 12z/22-18z/29 (4 GFS cycles/day), have seen some sort of broad area positive snow depth change in 15 of the 29 cycles by Jan 7, mainly nw-ne suburbs. Uncertainty for sure, but a sign that the model is sitting on the fence regarding cold enough for snow-ice in the northwest-northeast suburbs around Jan 6-7. Yes, it could be misleading to think it might snow around Fri-Sat Jan 6-7 in the suburbs, but the firehose of disturbances crossing the USA near 35N may provide snow-ice opportunities 6th onward, in part because the 12z/29 50+ member NAEFS (GEFS/GEPS) has the 200mb jet near or south of 35N Jan 6 (00z/7) onward. If that happens, I would think some cold air will bleed south to near the jet axis. 12z/29 example attached for the BL temp and its model variability at the stated time near 00z/7. Could this be too cold? From a GFS op standpoint, this has been an option since 12/22 12z cycle. Polar Wx probs for >1" of snow are still very low via the GEFS so I need to keep this toned down to the bleak projection of many in the forums. In the meantime, I'll take a small starter wintry event here in far nw NJ around Jan 6-7 and be happy.

NWS Blend of Models snowfall by Jan 7. Looks a little optimistic for snowfall, especially LI, possibly skewed by one or two operational cycles. Will just let it sit as is and maybe we get what seems to be an outlier???

FROM NOAA.gov Dec 15 CLIMATE post: Suggest this as a reliable solution. Emotional reactions don't lend to quiet rational assessment. The year to date (YTD, January through November) global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.55 degrees F (0.86 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average, making it the sixth-warmest YTD on record. According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2022 will rank among the 10-warmest years on record but a less than 1% chance that it will rank among the top five.

Don, Bluewave, and undoubtedly many others on our subforum, can remind us once in a while that stats are only as good as the database. The larger the sample size, the broader the perspective. I'll venture that our sample size is pretty small. and that OUTLIERS occur to broaden the database possibilities. I view stats as helpful in taming my enthusiasm, but always aware that that they are not encompassing enough regarding future predictability. So we had a good Dec pattern that didn't produce. Imperfect predictability. In the future we can have a seemingly unfavorable-benign pattern and suddenly we're talking an unexpected accumulative snow event. I'd like to see the latter occur first, before any stratwarm or the more or less typical roughly Feb 4-14 window of decent snowfall potential. I want to see if it can still measure snow in CP by mid January. I'm probably off-line for a day or two til the north of I-90 modeled (NYS-MA) snow-ice events of early Jan 2023, end up a little further south, closer to I-80 (PA-NJ-NYC).

I think many of us hopefully would settle for the median in Don's Jan plot (4.8"). That's my goal for January CP, not that I live there, but I am setting the bar low. I want to eliminate the potential for a record late measurable event and at least get the median amount as statistically allocated from previous winter T snowfall through Dec. That would be about 4" below the 30 year climo January average, which I think is 8.8" at CP. Don's average for the Trace winters to date, was 7.5" but skewed higher than the median because of the Jan 2016 27" event.

Now at least 25 dead Erie County alone. Thanks for the info.

I am hopeful.... not sure if this is the pattern that SSW can evolve??? I just don't have any skill at using these tools. I'm stuck at confidence in operational and ensemble model signals at most to about 264 hours (11 days) and this 8-11 stuff is with cyclical consistency. I don't think there has been much, if any, improvement beyond 10 or 11 days, from when I was starting topics 2 years ago on this subforum out to 11 days in summer (flooding rain threat from tropics). I also don't look at this as closely as yourself and many other skilled long rangers here and elsewhere. Keep posting here for January as it becomes more evident. I am very-very sure that our snow threats so far are partly minimized by few if any southern streamers into our area. This part of the pattern has to change. Northern jet is dominating so far. This past weeks event would have been much much productive snow wise in the midwest, had there been a southern streamer. Jan 78 for example. So I need to see much more southern stream energy available to interact with the northern jet-confluence zone in far northern New England.

NYC reservoir system now less than 5% below normal. Drought concerns eroding a bit?

No question about warmth coming for about 7 to 10 days, including probably the first 6 days of January. After that we may start normalizing and seeing some hints of winter. No pronouncements on when but already GFS hints around the 6th-7th, for multiple consecutive cycles, so far only N&W suburbs. This may end up warm and no risk for winter beyond Jan 6 for awhile, but I'm not that bold nor accurate. All I know: all the talk of these patterns and what it's going to take to generate snow in our NYC subforum is not working too well (less than 50/50 chance). I am concerned about bold pronouncements and not leaving the door ajar for deviations. The big seasonal snows so far in the eastern USA, lee of the Great Lakes. Regarding winter: I would guess now that snowfall through Dec is below normal in CP, that it will be a below normal winter, though not necessarily always. I just hope it's not 1972-73 with the 2.8" total snowfall and latest ever measurable 0.1 arriving 1/29. (please correct me if I misread xmacis). Let's root for reality dismissing this possibility as soon as possible.

Many suffering people this Christmas morning via 857AM power outage report.

Looks very difficult to see any significant snow the first week or so of January. So far all ensembles have less than 1" of snow for NYC through Jan 9. That can change, but unlikely to show much before Jan 6.

Upper air patterns. Will they eventually allow January 2023 to approach normal (via piecemeal snow events) for the month, somewhere in our NYC subforum?

And so, most if not all our posters are pretty fortunate right now. If we had no heat like the 545AM/24 outage report appended, we'd be talking life threatening, frozen waters pipes and many thousands of dollars returning to normal. Enjoy this wonderful holiday season being warm. Walt

Wantage NJ SB around 1252P ended around 215P. 0.1"; a little more on grass. pavement and boards were too warm to start, to immediately accumulate. Will try and let you know how moisture dries or freezes. Now 24.8F.

Wantage NJ at 740'MSL. 31.8F estimated 1.5MI S-

Flurries have started in this section of Wantage at 1252PM. 36.5F. max G today 27 MPH but even scattered power outages in Sussex County NJ. obviously much more widespread eastern USA. Saw some 60 KT gusts recently BTV BUF.

Lots of 40s (knots) w PA. Wind just now coming up in the east part of PA. ne PA inverted last night and so 850jet flew over the top. Ppower outages in PA attm tell the story of developing problems.

Please note CoCoRaHs snowfall map attached as well as NWS local snowfall reports and the CoCoRaHs 24 hour rainfall (not much LI, heavy rain focused Hud Valley). There was some marginal ice from Easton PA yesterday through nw NJ. Salting was needed and it still was a little icy at 6PM in Wantage where frozen ground kept it slippery despite temps of 33F We are not done, back end on its way today. Regarding big storms at new-full moon. No idea except with tide cycles more extreme, coastal flooding likely to be larger in a big storm, rather than mid cycle.

Please note CoCoRaHs snowfall map attached as well as NWS local snowfall reports and the CoCoRaHs 24 hour rainfall (not much LI, heavy rain focused Hud Valley). There was some marginal ice from Easton PA yesterday through nw NJ. Salting was needed and it still was a little icy at 6PM in Wantage where frozen ground kept it slippery despite temps of 33F We are not done, back end on its way today.

50 kt near HFD recently. Power outages continue to increase in this storm, (once in a generation)? how about Jan 20, 1978-yikes in my generation for that storm being worse than this for much the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.. Need low pressure to come up from GMEX for these super storms (Moisture). Back around 1030A.

Add: HPN 46 kt and ISP 45 kt. Active day. NYC you might see 0.1" snowfall at 1PM. Power outages are increasing. Bad news if you're not restored by 6PM.

So far as of about 425A: NYS coming up in power outage. I've seen 44KT LGA, 47 KT PVD and 51KT ATL where the most power outages are in the USA (GA). Attached maps of mesonets as of 425A. I see a 56 MPH ne NJ and 61 MPH in w LI