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Probably won't happen, but a snow or ice involved event is possible I84 corridor though for now, would say the 19th is reserved for north of the MA Pike but a precip event seems possible. Track uncertain. GEPS-CMCE has it for now as I reviewed 00z/11 ensembles. All 24 hour positive snow depth change ensembles look slightly better beyond that (21st-26th), but that could be climo and so can't put much weight on anything beyond the 20th. If everything goes zilch, the ensemble minor 24 hour positive snow depth change I84 corridor should disappear within several days.

Unfortunately 18z/10 GEFS has NIL NYC and 1" or less remainder NYC subforum, but we have to start somewhere?

Wantage NJ 740'MSL 7" to date. Normal SEASONAL winter about 40" give or take an inch. I'll accept an inch between Thursday-Sunday here on the edge of I84 corridor, if we can be so fortunate. Check back tomorrow. Still some hope for Sat-early Sunday, but not much. It's just 96 hours from possibly sharpening a little more than modeled?

Added CoCoRaHs reports of snowfall overnight: A band into Morris County and a second area measurable e CT eastward. I'll keep checking models, especially for the unlikely event to emerge but for now... snow drought continues.

A disappointing overnight of rain instead of snow I78 with any snow on the northern most fringe interior NJ to maybe just n of I80. Nothing here in northern Sussex County NJ so far, except possibly a flurry. We stand at 7" for the season and while one 00z/9 op run of the EC suggests snow Saturday, all 00z/9 ensembles are basically less than 1" snow even I84, through the complex weekend storm. Still not a shutout on possibilities but unlikely in our area for much if any snow. Just pathetic. Can't even look beyond 1/15 for awhile til we get a broad cold 1030MB high spread across the far n part of NYS-New England.

Something I worry about: socially false record's or deep snow alarming based on models beyond 240 hours could shutter availability. Probably can't now but really need to reign it in on all boards...show more care. Eventually the models will be good enough but I think for now it's a little soon...at least until we get some cyclic consistency and other model support. So that +PNA (relaxing e Pac Jet) and trend to colder that has been discussed in broad terms for days now.... evidenced in the 12z/8 384 hr... a 1050MB high for 12z/23 attempting entry into the northern Plains. That would be a surface idea of +PNA response. It won't be perfect but 'suggests' some legit subnormal or normal cold air may eventually arrive in the northern USA. Leave it as possible response and lets see if D16-23 can in reality flush out the Pac air for a while?

I think the models are getting there but too late... warmth has arrived before this picture so its just rain except maybe an inch or 2 of snow I84 corridor Thursday and maybe a little back side. A receding high is not good news. Let's just enjoy what comes down tomorrow morning at 4,5,6,7 I84, I80 and I78 corridors.

I agree with Don 100%. This stuff fuels speculation beyond 8 days and I'm pretty sure the NWS doesn't appreciate answering phone calls from us the public, based on a model or two speculating-going bonkers for two cycles. I know I didn't when I was in Mt Holly. A couple of towns were notorious at least until my 2018 departure. This wastes forecaster time better spent on forecast model evaluatio, IDSS (decision support for EM's etc), and or focal point duties. Any chance we can self discipline and witness 3 consecutive GFS cycles of + SnowD change in the same corridor Ii84, I95, I78 whatever) with maybe at least some similar EC and GGEM support. Just needs to happen. Boards are going too heavy too far out. Again and again... please take the little ones and enjoy them. Look out the window tomorrow morning at 4,5,6A and enjoy the falling snow, whatever you see in the I78-I80-I84 slot. It's better than getting shutout D10 and your kids may like seeing a little cover on the grass. Finally: GGEM I think needs to agree about snow with other modeling before locking in. The Canadian can run a little warm but if it cyclically has snow or ice within 5 days, I think that will help decide potential reality. Thank you, Walt

Aside from tonight per the attached NWS 5AM map (northern edge might be too far north?) Next general wintry mix risk I-84 corridor is Thursday-Friday. This storm has become more complicated so confidence is low on expectations and changes will probably occur in future modeling. A little snow is possible Thursday, and then ice or snow early Friday, changing to rain everywhere. This may provide some travel slow down complications. Meanwhile for nw NJ this seems to be mostly rain. Eventually when this storm moves away later in the weekend, it may end as period of snow but any accumulations would be generally reserved for the Poconos.

Besides turning colder in the eastern USA after 1/23... for how long? I see our Long Rangers have us in a warmer than normal Feb. So I guess its just normally colder for a few days the last week of January. In the meantime measurable snow risk: Philly-NYC early Monday... a snow sleet rain mix. If any snow comes down hard enough, there might be a first measurable of the season but right now, that is uncertain and because of modeled surface temps, not likely. Wet roads.

Not correct as far as I can tell. Boston 0.2. MPO 0.1 today. Another Poconos location found on CoCoRaHs had 0.6 yesterday.

spotty 1/2 yesterday.

Focus on big storms 8+ days in advance? Maybe this one will work for 1/13-16? I'm more worried about spotty 5" of rain in our NYC subforum (CT/NJ or even se NYS) than 5" of snow. We're not done on front end snow but model thinking seems wetter than white. Meanwhile: Modeling is trying to offer PHL and NYC their first measurable snow of the season at sunrise Monday. and Yesterday, MA did okay (1-3") with the snow, and far northern CT as well as Pocs had some T-1/2" amounts. Close but bust on looking out from 12/23-24 GFS ideas +SNOD Change. For me it illustrates that 100 miles can make quite a difference at D8-16. Has in part to do with modeling of the features aloft. That's why tempering enthusiasm at those time frames is probably wise. I think mPing may be fun early Monday. Probably melts on contact in the cities but still for me, a worthy future review.

Quick check on what occurred yesterday. T-spotty 1/2" Poconos and N CT and general 1-3" MA isolated 4. Just too warm from prior record and modeling could not hold 500MB closed low as far south across PA as initially modeled (was opening e-ne from CHI across NYS). BUST here but fairly close and good taste for MA- a first I think, in 2 weeks there. Modeling is trying again for early Monday. Accept whatever we can get.

Presume everyone Is aware of the small hail reports (mPing) to our southwest in e PA and n MD? Interest there may translate into lots more interest along I84 in CT tomorrow morning.

fwiw: unconfirmed but mPing recently brief IPW- s of KPVD (modeled sounding looked a touch too warm but I don't know?) and pea size hail north of DCA. It's definitely becoming convective in n MD as of 730P. Should be a nice round of rain coming soon (overnight) for the bulk of the subforum.

I've refired the 12/23 Jan 6 portion of this discussion in nw-ne suburbs. Those up there may want to see if this works. This also is part of 12/23-24 GFS cue. No question we have to flush out yesterdays record temps but an unstable moist lapse rate + the strong 5H short wave may be inducing low pressure near LI tomorrow and resulting in a widespread expanding mixed precip event as marginally cold air arrives on ne winds from N. Hampshire. The NAEFS a few days as posted here, was maybe as much as 5C too cold for 00z/6 but what models were discarding for the past few days seems to be developing some consensus for a first minor whitening of the ground I84 high terrain since at least 12/23. One little event at a time.

Good morning NW-NE suburbs I84-- Elevation-boundary layer temp dependent. I don't want to complicate (interrupt the focus on 1/14/23 storm), so I'll drop this in here and maintainer unless I see wet snow wrapping south across e LI late Friday. Unsure if you're noticing gradual increases in modeled snow depth change for the higher terrain of I84 tomorrow. This tracks back to 12/23-24 via GFS. While it's not yet a done deal... too many models are showing wet snow up there-here, at elevations. I'm pretty sure it's going to get slippery for a time in high terrain above 1400 feet tomorrow. Especially Catskills, interior CT-MA. Watch the colder BL air seep southwest from NH. What may happen is rain changes to wet snow top-down in a convective embedded within stratiform (possibleBC leaf) as a fairly strong short wave induces low pressure to newly develop s of LI. If the temp is 35 during the rain, I think the snow will cool the air temp to 32.5 or so and at least permit acscums on grass/cars. If you consider the HRRR having a tendency to be slightly warm, then the HRRR would be you conservative approach. But the Canadian Models and increasingly the NAM are slightly adding snowfall for 1/6. Presuming this occurs, I think this would be the first wintry event of snow-sleet since 12/23. This might be interesting for a few of our members. I'll check back 5-8P and see if this is a reasonable expectation.

Good Monday morning and a belated Happy New Year, Jan 6: not looking good south of the I84 corridor elevations. GFS-GEFS trends have been a little north the past day for so and CMCE and EPS a little south. Just looks too warm I-80 corridor south. As for I-84 elevations, a little ice Thursday afternoon or night and then maybe some convective snow bursts with the vort max Friday morning dumping possibly a quick inch or two (less valleys). So far modeling is not cold enough soon enough, and while we have a healthy looking 5H negative tilt trough-strong vort max crossing I-84 Friday, it should be too far north and too brief for major impact. I could see elevations of I84 needing road treatments with some morning delays but it's all about nighttime timing and temps near freezing. This probably commits too much this far in advance but it's the merger of what I'm what I'm seeing in models. Confidence: a little below average. Checking NAM 2m temp trends will be of value. I am watching RGEM, and hopefully it eventually cools a little for the 18z Thursday Jan 5 prediction across MA. I'll probably check back late today or tomorrow. I am not looking beyond Jan 6-7 time frame. For me, one at a time. This will be interesting to see if the GFS idea was right about snow possibilities Friday Jan 6, in it's modeling since just before Christmas. For now, it seems it was too far south. If this turns out to be a nada snow ice event in our subforum, it will be a terrible two week GFS cyclic run. Still have 4 days for changes.

Yes on all... and definitely an opportunity for NYC snow Jan 6 and 8-9. Right now the 48 hour exceedingly low prob for 6" keeps it I84 corridor for the first one. This could be an eastward moving low that I could see favor most of the wintry weather I-84 itself SOUTH to most of if all of NJ e PA and at least northern LI. Long ways away with many options. I just want to see the upper 500MB low maintain into W PA and same latitude. So far, encouraging, Need to see future modeling continue accumulating here.

Continuing: Modeling has us in the game from late Jan 5 onward. Could still be the very bleak fail outcome for Jan 6. Latest 12z/31 WPC Blend of Model flip flops with the GFS cycle. It's attached. This does not include the 12z/31 cycle which I think is going to show an increased chance of snow Jan 6-10 since since both 12z/31 GFS and GGEM op's more or less agree on something. There 18z WPC BOM should reflect something similar to its 12z/31 cycle. Still for the first Jan 6 event to occur, I think it's going to take a closed 500MB Low into Ohio early Jan 6 for this thread the needle to work. We'll need to see the 12z/31 EC op and then see if the GFS can hold on in its 18z/31 and 00z/1 cycles to give us improved odds.

On that... at least two of 3 clusters, we had the wintry option for the subforum. 12z/16 cycle of the EC was a drastic change including its ensemble.

The big change to the Great Lakes cutter occurred with the 12z/16 EC-EPS cycle shifting from coastal storm to a cutter. (That was 7 days prior to the late 12/22-12/23 event). I'll accept anything inside 7 days with consistency as being a reasonable outlook.

IF you can, would you post the mean EPS LOW temp for these 3 five day periods you showed the departure from normal. This matches the NAEFS. Timing is everything on these events Jan 6 and beyond but with respect to climo, I think it will be cold enough as extracted from the NAEFS BL temp as accessed here from the 00z/31 NAEFS. Take a look at the dailies valid at 00z of the day in question. https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html Select temperature from the upper left chart menu and then to the far right right on the menu, add a day at a time. Imperfect for sure and there are standfard deviations applied in color. This is cold enough for me I-84. I kind of wonder if eventually this is all going to shift south toward PHI-BWI suburbs??