wdrag

Wantage NJ started as IPW- around 5P, then RW-/IPW- mix but now down to 33 with TD 31 and a wet snow/sleet mix. Getting slippery on many surfaces here at 640PM including pavers/ concrete/wood step, even at 33F. I'm expecting less than 1/2" snow-sleet mix here in Wantage this eve before ZR- everywhere northern 1/2 county around 9P then prob warms to 33-34F overnight before snow drops it back to 31-32F at 7-8A and accumulates widespread 1-3" in Sussex County 8A-2P with less on pavement and especially elevations BELOW 600 feet including Sussex Airport.

I'll leave it to you to debate the merits of the modeling and the forecast. Attached is the NWS ensemble chance of roughly 3+" of snow Wednesday and also this mornings 4AM NWS forecast which seems a touch conservative on the south edge from nw NJ to w CT. Their snow forecast for next day or two had considerable ensemble support to play this late Sunday-Monday event conservative. For Wantage NJ, I'm thinking 1/2" grass-decks 5P-10P today and then 1.5-2" Monday, realizing we're fighting daylight hours snowfall at 31-33F temps. Pavement less both front and back end. I'll try to add CoCoRaHs totals at 830A tomorrow and Tuesday.

Interesting trends with 18z/21 NAM and HRRR. See if it holds for entire I84 corridor. No pronouncement except a bit of snow coming to nw NJ. Noting NWS has posted advisories for mostly just n of I84. For those who like to verify models: here's two day CoCoRaHs Numbers. Certainly not the GFS-GEFS finest day. I'll think of this as a decent EPS/GEPS blend. Imperfect modeling in the gradient but certainly a lot more than the GFS wanted to offer.

Quick thoughts: Looks to me like the GFS continues tooo warm and wet. It failed northern MA overnight...reattached the graphic posted Monday the 16th from Tomer's Polar Weather link on predominant precip 00z-06z/20 They've had 2-5" of snow in far northern MA as of 1A this morning. NWS comms has been problematic last night and early today but making do with other resources. My quick impressions which are in line with cooling trends to seasonable temps last few days of the month into the first 4 days of Feb: More seasonable winter weather expands across the I84 corridor into early February. The snow, whatever there is will tend to be wet and melt on roads during the daylight hours. Parts of the I84 corridor should see a total of half a foot between 7AM today and 7am next Friday the 26th-a one week period.

mPing letting me down. Nothing icy on leading in ne PA tho text report ice pellets at 720A at Mt Cobb on exit 8 -I84 in PA... 2000' elevation. Bright banding there now so the leading edge may start showing more mixed rain/sleet by 10AM into the Catskills. Wildly differing solutions tonight in northern MA. GEFS mostly wet. other models varying amounts more ice/snow mix.

fwiw...two day cocorahs snowfall ending 2PM yesterday... out of our area but an idea of what that near miss Ocean storm did and moral victory who were looking for this. I think Logan had 3.5" for this event. click for clarity.

Picking on the GEFS, or cherry picking? It seems to me the GEFS and GFS are not handling extent of measurable wintry weather (snow-ice) very well. For the Sunday (15th) morning 4AM forecast for e MA, the 00z/15 GEFS had a paltry less than 20% 48 hour chc of 3" se MA, almost nil ne MA. Most of coastal MA has had 3-4.5". Graphic added since it impacts early Sunday WFO issuances. Even 2-3" fell back in n central and nw MA. CoCoRaHs map will update tomorrow at 830AM with whatever two days we have) Also added a graphic for this Thursday evening from the 12z/16 GEFS cycle which has dominant qpf of rain across MA. I highly doubt that rain will be predominant at 00z-06z/20. 12z-18z/16 ops from EC/RDPS/NAM all ice or snow there and NAM/RDPS are tending to hold freezing temps or sink them slightly south Thursday evening into extreme nw NJ and the Poconos. This could be significant since ice could be predominant Catskills, higher Pocs and maybe even extreme nw NJ above 1000 feet. So let's see if the Canadian - EC - NAM end up too cold vs the GFS-GEFS. Graphic #2 added. These advance challenges are important to help balance our approach into the coming ptype... do we accept one model as gospel, or probably better, mentally blend (WFO's have digital blending techniques to assist their predictions).

Yep.: Even NYC parts of LI may see flurries, ice pellets or freezing drizzle this morning. Big messy storm found a way to work its moisture back, even into the east side of the Hudson River in se NYS. My faith in the GFS is in general agreement with most others here... not strong when compared to the EC/GGEM. Modeling isn't handling the rotation of bands of moisture very well and as I recall did not do that well with big ocean storms when I worked in Boston. Timing-placement a mess for these bands. I have no significant changes in my expectations for the 19th-20th and the two I84 corridor events of the 22nd-27th along with a general chilling the last 6 days of the month. 19th-20th favors mostly CT/MA/Catskills high terrain icing with a little minor backside snow on the 20th.

April 82?

Thank you Don... GGEM-CMCE does not look very good in these two links... Maybe I have a perception bias? We'll know in a few days.

Nice contribution-thanks.

Hi Don... if you have access to a simple and useful a stat to post... am interested in updated rankings GGEM/EC/GFS/UK in the cool season (possibly the period from Oct-Dec 2022 if we have it). I have no claim on GGEM tropical warm season verification. My interest, as I think most on here, is the cool season here in the eastern USA. Thanks in advance if you can dig it up. Walt

May I recommend dumping CFS looks... When this first came out in the 20teens, I thought it good. No longer do I think this is worthwhile product. Anyone disagrees please let me know. Thanks, Walt

I laugh sometimes at all the humor...it's pretty good. I like this one above since I'm a bit of an old guy, music wise. The Righteous Brothers circa 1964. I always say, don't look too far ahead. We have the next two weeks for a 'bit' of hope LI, including late tonight e tip LI. Nasty wind driven sleet and snow storm in progress now far se MA and CC. Added the seasonal snowfall (half the winter so far) for our part of the world. You can check the NOHRSC broader view in the pic within pic upper right (inset). Here's a tiny challenge? Can we double what's occurred, the rest of the 22-23 cool season??? By the way, Major cities season to date snowfall through yesterday. BOS 1.4; NYC, PHL, DCA, AVL Trace and oh, wouldn't you know it...my wife always says we should move south for snow. Atlanta 0.1". Can you beat that?

Some notes here: It looks to me like the big weekend of storm oft predicted by long rangers more than a week in advance (via upper air pattern) is going to happen for parts of coastal New England. Moral victory. My guess is a few power outages are ahead for the wind whipped wet snow laden branches-wires in southeast Massachusetts and I haven't studied what might happen in Maine. This is a big storm, just a little far offshore. I can see eastern LI getting involved in some snow-sleet-freezing rain late today or Monday morning. GEFS is finally at 24 hours coming on board. FGEN will drive some of the snow-sleet west from the MA coast later today-tonight. Bottom line, an event for the Boston area to the Cape Cod Canal. Thursday-Friday Jan 19-20 I84 corridor-Old Forge NY: Continues to look like a significant light to moderate winter storm for me. For now a messy mix of ice and snow. Many models suggest mainly ice. Ice amounts on untreated surfaces in the hilly terrain of CT and Massachusetts as well as Old Forge NY may be 1 to 2 tenths of an inch. Potential for a period of slippery travel, especially Old Forge NY and high terrain of the I-84 corridor. A manageable travel event, if you plan on a little extra time. Leading the pack for many days (IF THIS OCCURS as wintry mix for more than 6 hours) is the Canadian and all it's modeling. No guarantee this occurs as 1/4-2" of snow and 1-2 tenths of an inch of ice for I84 northward but other modeling at least favors I84 itself northward. For those south of I84, you see it as nada and I can live with that southeast of Newton NJ in Sussex County NJ. As far as more seasonably cold wintry temps: I am expecting that chillier air (colder than what we're experiencing now) will arrive here after the storm of the 23rd-24th and generally linger til about the end of the month before the first week or two of February reverts back to above or much above normal temps. I'll check back tomorrow. Have a decent Sunday and go big blue.

Hi! Please go back to the 06z/RGEM northeast region and lock on to 10/15z. Then go back 10 prior cycles for this 10z/14 time. Impressive? Note also you can do the same with total snowfall though that incorporates the entire time from init. Hope this is useful. I agree about low level... temp initializing from about 0 to -7 in the layer at or below 700MB which is nearly saturated. Bottom line, problematic modeling by most models, for something that has caused icy spots in CT and apparently Poconos. We have a ways to go on modeling. Fact that HRRR caught on very-very late, I think is partly due to obs/radar?

0.2" so far parts of nw CT hills.

I see flurries in NYC this morning. RGEM the only model to hint this. if you look back on modeling for this morning... which model had a bit of snow for CT/MA/LI this morning????? The RGEM and I think it was the RGEM only. You're invited to check back and call me on it. Certainly not the over hyped EC nor the maligned GFS. This at least is a moral victory for all who predicted a big winter event here for the 14th. Flurries are hope. Slight accums nowcast expectation today for parts of CT/LI.

I see flurries in NYC this morning. Big ocean storm already has zr- ORH earlier today. Will bring accumulative snowfall to much of e MA/far e CT by midday Monday. RGEM the only model to hint this mornings flurries. Meanwhile 19-20 depends on a couple of things, I think. This is a GEPS-CMCE (Canadian model) storm, in large part because it does not close off an upper low on the ejecting shortwave into the Great Lakes Friday. If the GEFS/EPS are right, very little snow ice. So, caution to the expectation due to diverse model opinions. I still lean Canadian. In fact, if you look back on modeling for this morning... which model had a bit of snow for CT/MA/LI this morning????? The RGEM and I think it was the RGEM only. You're invited to check back and call me on it.

And the two day snowfall for yesterday which was in the 1A-1P range of the 12th. Previous days Poconos nw NJ snowfall was posted yesterday. One error in the CoCoRaHs date..I think the 15" should be 1.5".

Looking ahead: Aside from what eastern MA and far eastern CT receive from the grazing large ocean storm this Sunday into Monday... it still looks interesting to me for our NYC subforum of the I84 corridor. You saw the spotty 1" amounts yesterday in the Catskills and nw CT, with many reports 0.1-0.7". My perception of what may be ahead and temporarily worthy of monitoring until it does its northeast winter 22-23 M.O. fade to nothing. Thursday-Friday Jan 19-20 I84 corridor. Significant winter storm compared to what we've had since Christmas, with for now mostly ice to rain I84 corridor but could see some snow involved. Potential for slippery travel, especially high terrain I84. The Canadian Model (overall worlds second or third best model) has been persistent about this occurrence since January 8th. The following week of Sunday the 22nd-Friday 27th poses one or two wintry weather challenges for the northeast USA, particularly the I84 corridor northward. LOOOONNG ways off=uncertainty on precip type.

Most of this early this morning...CoCoRaHs snow sleet accums (Click for clarity). Not shown here most of the E MA coast 0.1-2.0"

Kuchera 24 hour snowfall from 06z/12 EC OP cycle as ocean storm backing onto coast possible?

So far as of 655AM, 0.1" snow sleet and slippery all untreated surface. Temp was 32.5 prior to the start, then fell to 32.0 now. I think the NAM3K temps will be helpful today...VERY slow rise. Also I am paying attention to Tue 1/17 and especially Thu-Fri 1/19-20 as possible ice related event.

Yes, I'm still having fun on the edge of the I84 corridor! Next hope to see something a little white for the I84 corridor is midnight tonight to about midday Thursday with amounts mainly hills (1/2" or less) and maybe top it off with an hour or 2 of ice Thursday before the change to 33F rain-drizzle. All ensembles have this very minor snowfall but conservative is the way I have to look at this. 19th is of interest til modeling makes it too warm for snow or ice.