wdrag
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Central PA Winter 2022/2023
wdrag replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I don't want to push this NW of the I84 corridor, not yet anyway. Is worthy of monitoring. If nothing happens because it goes out to sea south of I80, then so be it. -
I haven't seen anything that discards the potential. Have informed my FB friends.. possibly 1" snow ATL Sunday morning, altering travel into western NC and western VA mountains Sunday with potential for widespread mountain power outages due to ice-wet snow accums, and potential slippery mixed mess for a few hours interior suburbs BWI-BOS Sunday night, presuming it precipitates up here.
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fwiw... if the ULL tracks east, probably no go for us n of I80 but if the ULL tracks 1 or 2 degs further N, then I think the I84 corridor has a good chance of deformation zone snow (4") in n-nw edge of 7H LOW where FGEN-convergence occurs. I'll be watching trends in the modeled 7H-5H lows the next several days. In the meantime, 12z op model heights at 500MB are generally 30-60M higher than the 12z EC op. That makes a significant difference in ptype nw edge. Thermal profile are marginal but I'm pretty sure if models reverse the se trend in today's models, that we'll see a pretty decent amount of snow in the Pocs-I84 corridor. This still has a chance to edge a little further north than recently modeled. It's not an overwhelming amount of cooling in the column that is needed, in my opinion. It's latitude of the 7H-5H low that I think is important fgen significant snow N of I80. For reference check some Novak, Grumm, Bosart, Evans etc on banding,
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Looks like the GFS has been the first to consistently highlight a potential heavy wet snow stripe associated with an ECWS. The EC-EPS got on board yesterday, and the Canadian finally capitulated overnight. Now the question, how far north and west does this actually get, and the thermal profiles where it does precipitate. You all will be all over it. Not much I can add. My first concern is the interior highlands of the Carolinas and western VA high terrain for possible heavy wet branch clingy snow. Still early and plenty of uncertainty, especially ptype. EDUGGS had the most faith. WBC is not yet on board. I'd monitor their afternoon D4 winter outlook for an updated idea of their concerns, if they do have any and if the early arriving 12z/8 model runs continue supporting. I'm pretty confident if this precip shield makes it to the I84 corridor including nw NJ hilly areas, that it will be mostly snow. 00z/8 EPS fun. Added raw EPS freezing rain, which I usually take about 30% for glaze thickness. Also the +snowdepth change from the EPS. I like conservative in marginal temperature situations, especially D5.
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We all saw the GFS continue with its ECWS with it's past 3 cycles (cyclically consistent) 18z/6, 00z/7, 06z/7. EC/GGEM and those ensembles are/were not excited. I'm waiting another day before buying in. Part of the upper air has been there but I don't like trends showing an esewd peeling to the 500MB trough, which would give NC/VA the best shot at some snow. I'll be off line all day and still looking for late Feb or March as a better fit for us (kick the can?)
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Last 10 days of Feb: I like the trend of the GEFS 500MB... more and more looks to build heights over AK and some 850MB ensemble guidance is showing very cold air for that late Feb period building across sw Canada and possibly a little of that spilling EAST to the Great Lakes and Northeast. I like this. It's pretty clear to me in the guidance that mid month begins a cooling in the northern USA. I can't make any inferences beyond Feb, cause long ranging is so difficult but I do know we need an AK ridge to pool-build dense cold air in Canada. If other ensembles trend this way, I'll be thrilled...especially if they hold as we get closer to Feb 20.
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So I read conflicting info... is it SSW we're paying attention to? or an SFW? It seemed to me that big NH SSW's occur JAN-early Feb and that SFW's are the feature Mar-May?
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SFW: Looks complicated and determining whether warming actually occurs first at 1 hPa or 10 hPa. I'm not dependent on SFW-SSW for weather but respect it's place in research and attempted outlooking. I guess, I interpret the early SFW meaning a possible -NAO in spring? But then is the -NAO in spring as favorable for blocking and snow here? Don stats say no but sample size looks tiny. I'll look at 2/11 for now and note the GEPS is finally on board with the EPS at 500MB and all have a little qpf here in a colder scenario. GEFS might be too fast to the east but was first cueing us to the potential. Also fwiw...the immediate coast seems to be missing what will soon be a very large ocean storm grazing Cape Cod (late Monday the 6th) and modeling is basically agreeing on closing off a low aloft just to the s-se of CC
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Thanks.... will be on the lookout in April.
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Yours looks good... I kinda like this as a recent choice. Oh and where did snowman19 go? He is smiling..I told you no snow...
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I am in agreement...that single member anomaly map includes the two 5 day very warm periods ending there 10th and 18th. I'm seeing anomalies cooling after the 19th...all ensembles. That could just mean climo???? or it could mean the modeling hasn't decided whether the AK ridge returns per GEFS and shoots big time cold air into the northern USA (we need an AK ridge to have hope, especially if we don't have blocking near Greenland) or... we continue the oft disgusted warm winter. I don't know but I am looking for a pretty good event coming here around 11th. Whether its all rain or some sort of mixed bag, I don't know, Canadian doesn't have anything like the GEFS 5H trough which continues to amplify in successive cycles ending 06z/4 .It's up to the GEFS two lose it, like it did for this coming Mondays (6th) 7day advance storm signal, or the Canadian to start seeing it. Off line all day.
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I'm focused on your op GFS guidance for the 11th-12th and 19th-20th... Hmmm...mighr be something going on, at least I84. It's Feb . If USA and Canadian guidance at 12 hours can be in error by 4F, who is to know for sure on what the next two weekends bring.
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About Verification: Low this morning CP I think was 4 above. EC was cyclically consistent at +2 to 5F; 18z ish/3 blend of models looked like a low of +10. 12z/3 MOS MET +8, 12z/3 MOS MAV +6. Let the data do the talking. Have to be careful about the guidance usage, especially critical situations.
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For what it's worth, this will have been the coldest outbreak of the winter I80 north to Canada. NYC low at least 6 above (maybe it will drop to 5?). Our home in Wantage is -2...4F colder than Dec 23. Looks to me like that BGM rule worked out well.
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So, BGM is +1 at 2P. I see that ye have a slight snow cover. My guess per EC consistently +3F low temp CP last several cycles NYC is a low of +3, but because of snow depth at BGM, maybe I can allow for a highest MIN tonight of +6F. Let's see what happens. I'll acknowledge the bad too cold forecast at 8A tomorrow. For now I'll say a Low in CP tonight of +3 to +6, coldest of the winter so far. BUT, blend of models looks like a low of +10. MOS MET +8, MOS MAV +6. Wantage in nw NJ..our lowest on 12/23 was +2. Am going for -1 here tonight. Temp down to 12.6 here at 250P. Glad to see I84 is in the mix now for the 2/11-12 time frame, all models. All ensembles at 12z have some small chance of +2" snow depth change just N of I84...so that would mean some ice and marginal temps. This at 228 hours is not promising and certainly for now, nix for LI. I wish it were better.
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Good check... it has been holding pretty close to within 2F of 3 above the past 10+ cycles (EC OP cycles every 6 hours). I am going to go for a low in CP within 2F of the BGM 2PM temp (barring it's snowing heavily at 2P there). That as I recall (please correct me old timers) was a good rule of thumb. My guess is close to 5F. EPS from 00z/3 seems to have 4F at 12z/4. EPS about 4-6F colder than the CMCE,GEFS, SREF. Let's see what happens. If it does get down to 5F without snow cover in the lower Hud Valley, quite a feat.
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Thank you Don. One thing I am noticing in Feb... despite above normal, it doesn't look as warm as it did in January. Certainly GEFS ensembles are muted on warmth...while the CMCE is much more aggressive on warmth. All ensembles imply an event of some sort (ice or snow) I80 corridor northward to Canada 2/10-12. Canadian op needs to get on board. At least EC op has a chance and the GFS--- might be a little overboard in what has been a severe dud of a winter I84 corridor southward.
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Any hope in the weeklies for the last week of Feb or March... something akin to normal?
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In summary and others can add detail: Jan was a record warm month with no measurable snow. The first measurable of the season occurred at DCA, BWI, PHL,NYC near 5AM this morning Feb 1. Additionally, I think we're continuing our streak of record consecutive above normal days through Jan 31. I believe it's 35.
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yes it was, virtually entire I95 corridor measured DCA to very close to BOS.
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The answer is in... All 4 sites in the megalopolis from DCA-BWI-PHL-NYC measured early today... first measurable. 0.2-0.4" Not sure if anyone saw the flake size in mid town Manhattan around 5A... snow ratios were probably close to 10 to 1 per guidance.
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Yes... I posted on their FB page seeking answers. Thanks
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So far, as I know it, NYC and PHL first measurable of the winter. Waiting on DC and BWI for which I have yet to find out. EC much too heavy with its good axis (18z/31 op) and Canadian models a bit too robust and too far north to I84.
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I noticed the 12z/31 EC reverted back to its brutal forecast of 12z/30...the 00z/31 moderated. I don't know what will happen, especially without snow cover but north-northwest (340 degs) wind delivery makes it easier to get close to 2 above Sat morning-i.e. coldest since Jan 2019...again I don't venture confidence for a CP low of 2 above? .Also can parts of LI have flurries from sound effect snow Fri night-Saturday morning. I would think heavy freezing spray seems possible but that's all NWS to figure out.
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Let's see what happens: AGAIN!!!! EC late to the table for a minor event, but one that will be important for the climo annals. AND... if the EC is right... 1" could mean a bunch of accidents s of I80 tomorrow morning. I also noticed and not posted here, but the 12z EPS snowfall has grown from nothing 12z/30 to widespread amounts in NJ/e PA/LI. Let's see what happEns. I'm worried I in Wantage in extremenw NJ will have only Trace but I can see a non-issued hazard for much of NJ/parts of LI tomorrow morning (SPS I think).
