wdrag
-
Posts
4,481 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by wdrag
-
agreed.
-
True. I just checked 00z/GEPS press 18z/2. the 12z/25 GGEM op is 15MB lower in MA with its 991MB low. Could it verify? Unlikely when all ensembles are much weaker. Trop tidbits has the ens MSLP and worth a check. Check Mon night and Fri-Sat. My snow at 0.7" in this in part of Wantage. I'm done for the day, possibly weekend.
-
I don't think so. Look at all ens qpf. While EPS is still down, it has 1/2" qpf up here and some of that will be snow just w of I95. The 00z EC operational went pretty big snow in VA (check it) from nill all prior cycles. It's tasting the stronger short wave potential. I expect the GGEM to come on board by the 12z/26 cycle. If not, then GFS wayyyyy off but I give this time. GGEM 12/25z op likes the 3/2 event very strong and have doubts. If its not strong on 3/2, then this will probably drift to a bigger storm for the ne USA on Fri-Sat. I have to give this time to wiper back and forth at D6.
-
good.
-
I've grown bit more conservative in my 60th year attempting these forecasts (probably should have learned that 25 years ago). Forum can say and do whatever, though myself... I think whatever we say needs to be with consideration of whatever results. Thanks for your update.
-
Not a severe change and not only that but reliance on the GFS as primary guide not likely best solution. Plus all the guidance I've been looking at including ensembles has suggested to me the following as locally posted to a set of friends early this morning. 3-6" for SC and Poconos northward to OF and Boston area. Cannot use literal amounts at 72 hours. GFS hasn't had much for LI/NYC as I've been monitoring it..less than 1". When the Canadian (warmer model than EC/GFS) dumps it... then I question. 12z Canadian continues south of GFS. I'll await demise when Canadian and EC quit.
-
OK... suggest consideration basing assessment on not only GFS but Canadian and EC and not instant.
-
? from what and where.
-
Wantage NJ: SB near 9A. 0.2" at 1005A. all untreated surfaces covered including untreated roads. 19F after a morning low of 15.
-
Will March average within a degree of normal at CP... possibly less than the actual January 2023 average. Also, can March reach the 5" average for snowfall at CP? Prevailing impressions from the snow drought distraught are probably not. Still worthy of keeping the door open for a while. These two CPC graphics issued 2/24 serve as basis for interest.
-
A little look back at the steps the cool season is taking to knocking down negative snow departures to maybe less than 50% of normal by seasons end. Instead of 25" below normal, seems to me just 10-20" below normal. I am sure we are in a come back through at least the first day of spring. Can March follow the Jan to Feb temp trend and average less than the previous month? IE Feb a degree cooler than Jan. A normal March would be just a degree or above Feb. The current attached CPC outlooks are trying to imply a normal or below normal March barring unforeseen large + departures the first and last weeks of the month. I am surprised no major weather media - NOAA folks are talking about the mid Feb "start warm" and developing wintry impacts. Would make a buzz socially as did polar vortex. I guess it didn't happen in the midst of cold season so impacts not as severe. Nevertheless, while I haven't studied the strat warm results, it seems like a long duration change is in progress starting the last week of Feb and per latest EC weeklies recently posted plus the developing tendency for a +PNA and big AK ridge, while the more or less 50/50 low -NAO allows big cold air to resupply southern Canada and in spurts the northern USA. Looks like good sledding all across the northern USA the next few weeks, including the northeast, presuming we get normal or above normal precip after March 5. Adding a bunch of graphics: Two of them verify minor snow events of 2/21, 2/22, no mPing for the brief sleet-snow midday the 22nd in and near NYC despite ASOS not seeing sleet at 39F, the guidance leading up to Monday nights oncoming wintry weather (yes mainly rain parts of LI and s of I78) and what I think is a pretty good chance of a larger precip event here Fri-Sat March 3-4 (some of it wintry). Snowpack will be edging south and allowing colder air to hang closer to NYC. Witness the snowpack in northern MA now, and the results in tomorrow mornings temps up there. 2/21 and 2/22 cocorahs graphics... minor but slight impacts I84 corridor with minor snow and ice. WPC D7 prob of 3" of snow-sleet. Not too bad as its shaping up... gave us some support at interest. How about that Feb 15 CPC graphic and key messages. Note the heavy snow chance for the northern part of our NYC subforum, Todays 2/24 CPC issuances D8-14 from CPC and their week 3-4... Click for clarity, if interested.
-
Wantage NJ 4sw pavements wet but 0.1" slushy snow on all surfaces. 32.4. rain changed to snow at this 740' elevation sometime after 3A. I know DPW is working higher elevation CR nw part of the county. Walt 431A Temp was 59 at 3P yesterday.
-
So you have the models to follow. It's yours. I think this is an elevation dependent and that participants above 1000 feet Poconos, northern part of Sussex County east and northeast will see slight untreated pavement acc with up to 1-1.5" on grass. Further n in se NYS through CT and Mass, as you see it modeled...take the conservative approach but numbers are larger. I look at 2m temps of the 3K NAM and HRRR to help determine where it can stick during pcpn. At night 32.5F for pavement, lower temps during the daylight 2hrs after sunrise. At my house in Wantage NJ where it hit 59F at 3P, and now down to 55, am thinking T-0.1 slime acc on some untreated pavement (740' MSL) and maybe 0.2-0.4 on grass with the rain changing to wet snow at times beginning 1A-3A and most of the snow damage, whatever it is done by 8A. The max band may shift from where we see it modeled so obviously, can be variations. For those who like snow in the nw-ne suburbs, might be worth getting up at 3-4A to reacquaint with snowflakes. After 8A, I think accums may be difficult. My last on this today.
-
Just a little patience for all of us... yes its hard to believe it will be 60F here in Wantage NJ near 2P and possibly convective rain mixing with or changing to wet snow 15 hours later at 5A. That's what I'll be looking for tomorrow morning if modeling continues similar on the 18z and 00z/21 cycles.
-
Maybe so? but am pretty sure a stripe of 1+" tomorrow morning on the northern edge of qpf coming this eve from sw PA (already on radar as rain s of PIT). 12z GFS not far behind now, as are 12z/20 WRF ARW and WRF NSSL modeling. (my chagrin for not checking the 00z modeling of these two which also had it). So, tomorrow morning we'll know if indeed the NAM and recent two cycles of WRF ARW and WRF NSSL are too robust. and also the the 12z GFS. 12z/20 SPC HREF has spotty elevation dependent 1"+. We may kind of know by the 18z RGEM (4P), whether it buys in more fully or fades as you think. NAM probably feeding off its banding signal that last for 3 hours as it travels newd along I84 06z-12z. Here is the SPC HREF for tomorrows's wet snow acc, elevation dependent and mostly untreated surfaces. Watch the convective release late day. Interesting?
-
Impressive 12z run of the NAM... we'll see if it holds. Definitely isolated thunder hail, SW/RW late Tuesday after morning snow/rain dividing line just nw of NYC.
-
Still days away but I think we begin wintry mixes I84 corridor Tue with high elevation accums (1000'?). 18z/18 EC NAM and RGEM joining on this with the RGEM the warmest but am expecting it to cool slightly and look little more wintry down to I84 in future cycles. Presuming am correct, as op modeling settles on waves of pressure falls rolling east along I80 instead of a full blown 990sMB low for Thursday into the Adirondacks (Ala GFS), then the marginally cool enough for ice airmass along I84 will be difficult to displace. As usual pay attention to trends that are firm and not windshield wipering cycle to cycle, and go from there. Myself I favor an I84 burst of sleet-snow to ice Wed afternoon-night and lingering freezing precip in the elevated portions into forenoon Thursday, possibly DRifting south Thu night. Too warm to hold snow for long except maybe n MA border? Could there be a few ice pellets in NYC Tue morning around 15z? and better chance Wed afternoon? Thermal profiles are compromised yielding full potential, lacking full sun Sunday-Thursday. Interesting temp challenges NYC LI EWR next few days with the nearby cooler coastal waters.
-
Yes... expecting Canadian modeling to cool a little as we draw closer, as its typically a warmer model so when it says ice and snow, need to pay attention. Not sure if anyone is noticing how the OP models are weakening the low center now into the 1006MB range... as many cycles ago advertized by the ensembles, as weak waves of pressure falls cross nPA and out s of LI. I don't see much support for a 990s low to the Adirondacks. Am expecting a southward edging track to the GFS, more in line with the weakening EC as it tracks east along I80. This puts big time warming for NYC-LI and NNJ n of I80 in doubt, especially if enough precip falls to form a low ovc along the warm frontal boundary. In these somewhat flat upper level flows, low pressure is imo too deep and cycles closer to the verify time should weaken (relatively flat flow). Will check back tomorrow but as it see, periods of hazardous weather are ahead for at least the elevations of I84 for the next week or two possibly beginning as early as Tuesday.
-
anyone notice the latest 18z/18 NAM for the I84 corridor?
-
CPC post this afternoon is attached... before it gets flamed on its southern edge... lets figure out way such an intense low 990s is going to head for the Adirondacks for 2/23-24? All 12z/16 ensemble means (tropical tidbits ensemble and select MSLP/PWAR) are 10-20MB weaker and more direct for the Catskills... which at least leaves an ice option on the table for 2/23-24 for the nw-ne suburbs.
-
EGO=greed as well.
-
I guess this belongs in banter. CNN headline. Flowers and trees blooming up to 3 weeks earlier than normal in the Eastern US
-
Following up: There was no sleet on the northern fringe but there was rain as Digital radar from OKX, CoCoRaHs show here, plus added are the 06z/13 ensemble assessment of 5H, 8H T departure from climo, 8H flow and 7H flow as patterns to consider in future northern fringe of southeast USA cool season upper low pressure systems.
-
I guess interest has been dismissed for a part of the NYC subforum on the developing ECWS (mostly rain I95 coast). Not I, not yet. Going to be interesting... of concern to me using SREF/EC/GEFS...is the warm Canadian. I usually favor the Canadian model... It's drifting slightly to a little more snow mix but not much. Outcome is of interest to me, as well as the NNW fringe MD-PA-NNJ-Boston area. Obviously it's rain where most members live... monitoring with interest as enough cold air seems to lurk along the nw fringe. Could be a big GFS failure. Did notice latest 06z/11 EC is spraying a harmless r/sleet./snowmix to Philly now. FGEN may play a significant role far nnw part of the 700MB low.
-
No change in thinking from yesterday on n-nw of ULL messy potentially wet snowy axis near I84 Sunday afternoon-night. 0z/9 SREF shows MAX axis of concern, the edges shaky. through 00z/Monday, before getting going I84 corridor, if it is to get going.
