wdrag
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Checked a few of this pages comments and agreed... imo, EC-GFS may not be doing too well in the longer ranges with qpf here in the NYC subforum with overall GEPS seeming to be better allowing soaker 1"+ up to I90. Not a done deal north of I84 but sure looks like a somewhat nasty 5-7 day period Sat 23rd-Fri 29th. Spot 4-6" NJ-LI/e PA seem probable. Rainouts of MLB games possible NYC, PHL, DCA meaning some might be doubled up on a day or not played at all depending on MLB impacts.
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Hmmm.... last two weeks not quite zero on action. As posted just a bit earlier in this thread, spot 4" Hud Valley Monday the 18th, and EPS has quite a trough se USA last week of Sept that I didn't notice 24 hours ago... that would be wet and tropical plume if it were to occur. Monitoring... 936A/16
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Quick review on Sept 7-14 rainfall: Was 1-2" lower than long range guidance anticipated with max amounts in our NYC subforum 6-7.5" (not all data probably in CoCoRaHs but enough to demo the FF near AVP, PHL, Ocean County, CT/MA). Were there any 10's in our subforum..probably NOT. Our home here in Wantage NJ was a paltry 1.41. Here's the always subdued multisensor smoothed data from the NWS, and CoCoRaHs. Click for clarity. Lee and its scraper impacts coming to coastal New England as well modeled - well in advance. Nothing else excites me about extremes the rest of September around our NYC subforum.
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A tease for the 00z/11 EPS... e LI around 35 MPH in the median ensemble and 60 MPH ACK Sunday afternoon.
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9/11: not a good day Probably not posting after 9A today til Tuesday night... but for what its worth over 5" last night in extreme sw NJ and 4" NYS mesonet week total just n of NYC. I'm seeing a fair amount of FFW's without watch past couple of days. Note sure what that is about. For me its's AWARENESS. That helps in difficult situations. Most of us will be near 2" by 00z/15 except maybe less e LI. however, looks to me like spotty 6" CT/NYS/e PA/NJ with isolated 10" still possible dependent on what happens this afternoon-eve and then the Wednesday bands of heavy rain. Always uncertainty but not benign, in my mind. Interesting Lee tendency on the 15th-16th... probably just a scraper for coastal New England with northerly winds and some rain, this per WPC and modeling. Still a worthy monitoring situation and I don't want to look at 23rd yet. Walt. 719A/11
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Continuing personal theme of Sept 7-14. Amounts as posted by NWS in the subforum seem to be missing 'isolated'big amounts 3-4.8" so far, as documented in state climate data or prior LSR's. This is becoming important in assessment. My concern is not only north of I78 in NJ/PA, se NYS but now CT, through Wednesday evening. Scranton area: There have been road washouts/bridges out/injuries/ and at least 1 fatality vicinity Scranton PA and while that is not in the NYC subforum, it does suggest isolated potential in the subforum... this afternoon-tonight, and Tuesday night-Wednesday. See attachments for documentation of FF ( tiny sampler), FFG which I think in our area if exceeds 2.5": in 6 hours, you'll get FF (NOT talking the general river flooding, but what I feel is the more dangerous isolated hillside/urban runoff/creek FF). and added the 12z/10 SPC HREF MAX rainfall potential which is not necessarily very reliable but suggests renewed heavy convection later today/tonight with potential for "isolated" max amounts 3-5", ne PA/ This is not a benign pattern, though many in our NYC subforum will only nickel and dime for the next day or two. and this is only with PW of near 1.75" through tonight and again Wednesday morning.
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Am continuing theme of spotty life threatening FF, road washouts along and N of I78 PA/NJ into se NYS, especially metro and hillsides by 00z/15. Already spotty 3+ from what I can tell ne NJ and these two weekend afternoons-evening will be vigorous. Looks like Wednesday the 13th is the packed PW axis in what I think is LEE assisted ULL jet structure/convergence---6 hour 2-4" event somewhere near I95. Thereafter, presuming Lee gets lost in the northward shuffle and does not accelerate, then problems develop next weekend as GEFS/GEPS/EPS guidance are increasingly going with a deepening trough in the Great Lakes and multiple ensembles have decent 24 hour rainfall near the 17th e LI e New England. So for me, I wait before saying expanding Lee wind-pf fields not scraping e New England. We should know more late Monday the 11th. Not starting a topic on this 7th-14th heavy rain period, until I'm absolutely sure of more than "isolated" 10" in the NYC subforum. Note the LSR's from OKX/PHI on the rain reports. For now, SVR dominates the past two days in extensiveness. That should change this weekend. Also 00z/9 CSU Machine Learning GEFS Probs are of interest next weekend on FF. Day 7-8 has a good chance of failure to produce but it is of some interest to me as this pattern unfolds for the northeast USA. I'm not tossing a bunch of graphics out since I won't be able to find-verify, since expect many future comments coming. For now, I think the potential around here is a bit underplayed. Walt 951A/9
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Was thinking a topic for widespread 2-5" rainfall with isolated 10" would be some of value for the period 00z/8-00z/15 but held off due to FFG, ensemble river stage forecasts being conservative. Still, I think by the time next Thursday night comes around, isolated life threatening flooding-infrastruture damage will have occurred in the NYC subforum due to repeated 1-4 hour R+ events. Enough spacing between events permits the recovery needed to probably forego widespread flood damage problems but needs monitoring. This pattern between tonight -Monday, and then reenergized by northward moving Lee interactions with the UL jet Ohio Valley to Bay of Fundy next Wed-Thu is going to result in some significant problems. Where/when is more of a question for me. Fairly certain damaging wet microburst severe embedded-so monitoring SPC/local office statements is worthy. On Lee: if it crosses 70W as it comes around the western Atlantic ridge ahead of the uncertain amplitude of the approaching 5H trough middle of next week, then a New England scraper would be possible. Lots of uncertainty on the shape of the approaching trough middle of next week. Added WPC 7 day contoured forecast issued early this Thursday morning 9/7/23
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Rainfall NYC metro, imo, probably ranges from 1/4" e tip LI to maybe spotty 6-8" nw NJ-nw CT/ne PA between Thursday evening the 7th and Wednesday evening the 13th, as modeling from vicinity Aug 30-31 continues excessive potential. This does not include the LEE interaction of Wed/Thu Sept 15-16, if its delayed that long. That interaction would probably be enhanced RRQ upper level jet se Canada and some packing of PW along the I95 corridor near CF, for a band of 6-12 hour potentially excessive... but that latter 9/15-16 still just a model suggested vision which adjusts in the future. In the meantime: probabilistic guidance probably not seen by many... but added here to show potential in GEFS guidance for SVR D1-8. Brown is very low prob but still notable for not discarding the possibility. I think this is useful for consideration. Have a hot enjoyable day. Walt
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Modeling that I like to review is staying on target... I think lots of rain coming up 9/8-15 for the NYC metro into PA/NYS/NJ/LI. WPC is growing its area of general 1.5+ through the 12z/4 cycle. How the probable strong TS interacts along the mid and n talc coast is still up for debate. For now, am not ruling out contribution to rain along the coasts as suggested by ensembles---too much uncertainty to be sure right now (for me). Ensembles have been consistently offering a separate R+ area just of the mid Atlc coast to the s of LI near 9/15 in the ensembling via tropical tidbits. Long-long way to go, in part dependent on the probable TS strengthening and building the 5H ridge to the east-northeast of Bermuda, and in part how the southward extent of the troughing at 5H in the Great Lakes-Tennessee Valley evolves 12-17 time frame. I would hope that mariners are monitoring potential for a storm along 70-65W next week, hoping that future trends shunt east of 65W.
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D6-10 and 8-14 from CPC issued this afternoon continues a wet second week of Sept around here. Troughing: still plenty of time to turn the flow more ssw at 5H instead of wsw, and draw the offshore tropical system further nw. Current little dry spell beyond Wed the 6th = decreasing chances.
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fwiw..CPC mid afternoon issuance today has D6-10 and 8-14 above normal qpf our area... suggests possibilities of a storm.
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possible. laying low on this but continue to look at something week two Sept. Nothing obvious, for now.
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Does look interesting to me after Sept 7 for the tropics along the mid Atlc and northeast USA coast...... weakness troughing and tending to develop trough westward and latitudinally further south from the Atlantic and signs of storms in the w Atlc in ensemble members. Two sets of ensembles have in recent cycles shown above normal rainfall for NYC subforum in the period roughly 9/8-15. (EPS/GEPS).
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For what it's worth, I always follow up, good or bad on sense of what may happen. Posted p1 March whenever this thread started. Will March average within a degree of normal at CP... possibly less than the actual January 2023 average. Also, can March reach the 5" average for snowfall at CP? Prevailing impressions from the snow drought distraught are probably not. As it turns out... March was another dud for the winter. Mean temp: Jan 43.5. Feb 41.1. March 44.6. (PLUS 1.8F) Have a super summer.
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Did go back and verify. Last 9 days were 3F cooler in CP than the mid Feb 10 day period. Not much more I can say about general ensemble value, expect that its positive in a general sense week two-three.
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Wantage NJ in far nw NJ 0.2" and light snow at 445AM 32.2.F. most of the snow since about 3AM.
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Wantage NJ. 245A total 3.6". 2-3" on pavement. 31.8F.
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Wantage NJ 4sw (this southern part). 2.7" new snow since 640PM change over. Next measurement around 430 AM. 31.8F. Everything covered-draped in wet snow. Light snow continues at 1050PM. Good night.
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Wantage Nj 4sw: snow increase 1.2" past hour with 1.3" since it began all sow around 640P. All surfaces including unplowed-untreated pavements with at least 1" cover. 32.2F.
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Wantage NJ (this part) 0.6" on grass etc, none on pavement. Nothing like Bethleham PA above. 31F light nw wind at 4A.
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Wantage (this southern part) NJ 6.2" total with the dense small flake snow of 4A now becoming less dense but larger flakes. Down to 25.9F. I'm thinking this snow will survive the 50F attack on Thursday with a leftover inch or 2 in advance of Friday. Also, I don't think we're quite done today (may be another 1/2" here in far nw NJ) here but essentially storm over. Roads plowed and wet even here at mid 20s temp.
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Wantage NJ - this part of elevated Sussex County at 740' MSL. 1.5" since the 1245A report for a total of 5.8" and very fine tiny flake snow in progress. 28F
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Wantage NJ, this southern part at 740'MSL 1245AM report 4.3". Light snow in progress with 29F. Beautiful.
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Wantage NJ 0.3" snow 630-7P. sleeting since then. all untreated surfaces slippery.
