wdrag
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Periods of rain, some of it heavy at times is destined for most of the NYC subforum Friday-Saturday as low pressure develops off the mid Atlantic coast into a vertically deep slow moving cyclone. PW increases at times to near 1.7" in warm advection along the inverted trough Friday then the pinwheeling PWAT circles back around our area Saturday. Gusty northeast-east winds Friday morning to 35 MPH and the constancy of northeast flow this week at the time of the highest tides in Sept should yield at least minor coastal Flooding within 2 hours of high tides Friday and possibly moderate coastal flooding at the highest tide cycle Saturday or Sunday as the backwash of the offshore storm shoots some 45 MPH north-northeast winds down the NJ coast by Sunday morning. The previous 3-4 day rains are attached, and the numbers for this coming one may exceed 6" again in parts of the NYC subforum. If so, where? It's possible, despite all this projected rain, that flooding might be imited to a few small areas. Too early to be sure as of 447PM/27. The EPS has been most aggressive with this system since 9/24 cycles and the 12z/27 EPS mean rainfall is attached. These values are quite high and much higher than the GEFS 12z/27 cycle with the GEPS midway between. If it causes fresh water flooding---where? Not sure this will be very much freshwater flooding except possibly NJ/CT/urban LI. This topic should serve also for the rainfall reports. at 505PM added the tag power outages. If this rainfall develops per the more aggressive 12z/27 EPS mean, rain softened ground from this past weekend combined with new 2+" rainfall may allow spotty power outages due to tree uproots of still fully leaved trees.
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Have waited this out and so as a NON-expert in tropical storm genesis... but using extra tropical ensemble upper air guidance and the surface response off the mid-Atlantic coast late this week, I think we'll see a significant low roughly 37/72 by 12z/30, meander east-then south or south-southwest in the following days and go through a phase change over the warmer SST's between Oct 1-3. I'll leave it at that since I'm not an expert but I think the western Atlantic is interesting, not only from the cold core development 29th-30th, then thereafter the possible evolution the first week of October. Just looks to me like the door is open off the southeast-mid Atlantic coast first week of October. I don't know how the currently modeled tropical systems south central Atlantic play into this.
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I agree: I can get this going at 5PM, pending 12z cycle. I see the 06z/NAM has gotten back on track... probably too far west but at least its sending pockets of heavy rain northward into the NYC subforum. The 06z RGEM continues on track with its 00z/27 predecessor and from what I can tell...combined with the persistent EPS (EC op has been a little east), I think this is looking like coastal NJ/extreme se NYS/LI/CT-SNE storm where widespread 1-2" with iso 4 or 5 possibly ble. The 1/4 stuff I think is reserved for e PA/Catskills, I90 and maybe extreme nw NJ. Coastal flooding minor per NWS, but I'm thinking this evening and Wednesday evening and then potential worst of this last half of Sept, occurring Saturday mid morning high tide cycle (MDT), and possible ditto Sunday mid morning.
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Just re-running this post from 9/24. Other than the 00z/27 NAM, this looks to be correct for what seems like a pretty big event Friday in the NYC subforum, particularly se NYS/CT/LI/coastal NJ with a potential for mdt coastal flooding at the highest of the high tide cycles, as well widespread 1/4-3" of rain with isolated 5'? 00z/27 RDPS has 6". Best axis of max rainfall uncertain but it looks like PA/Catskills least likely for R+... nose of the inverted trough and organizing low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast the culprits. EPS from 18z/26 is even larger than what am showing from last Saturday. Also, it still seems to me that we're in general onshore flow here in the NYC subforum, especially NJ/LI through the first week of October, although I could see a day of north or north-northwest.
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3 day totals per the CoCoRahS sampling. Note the 5's and 6's in parts of the NYC subforum central coastal NJ, nw of Port Jervis NY, near POU and HFD. Then as many times, little as sampled near BDR. Most should be satisfied with the short term (NAM etc) QPF guidance and some of the LT (Canadian, EC and then the least...the GFS).
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Raining 0.03/hr here this part of Wantage (see TEWR) and passing 2.2 at 750 PM...much less than that which has occurred along the NYS border northward.
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More coming...maybe a stripe of 1/4-1/2" between now and Noon Tuesday parts of CT, LI, NJ. FFG has decreased to generally 1.5-2" in 6 hours se NYS, portions of interior CT and NNJ. So that won't improve- dry out for a while. Additionally at least two models (18z-GFS and 12z EC have spotty 2-3" the Night-Fri) at the nose of the inverted trough. Interesting through Friday for wind/rain/(coastal flood episodes at the higher of the daily high tide cycles in NJ) as well spotty minor river flooding CT/NYS. posted 634P/25
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2.12 at this Wantage NJ location at Noon today, which is less than my CoCoRaHs neighbors. I think more coming into Tuesday morning and then again Thursday or more likely Friday NJ/NYC/Li. Not counting on the GFS again late this week regarding its progressive look, as it did repeatedly for this past weekend. Does look a little interesting for the first week of October as well, but that is for another thread post later tonight or tomorrow. Coastal flooding of some sort seems to be on the books every day this week for NJ. Walt
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For your review in a CNN headline on-line today September 25, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/25/weather/el-nino-winter-us-climate/index.html I'd like to see all long rangers participating on American Weather, post their winter Outlooks (DJF) by 830AM October 19, 2023 when the NWS tends to release their official winter outlook--around that date. Below are excerpts from CNN as posted today: Gives us a chance to monitor strength of El Niño and possible impacts. I'm hoping Don Sutherland and others who normally participate on American Weather and/or other forums, and not necessarily locked into the NYC subforum, would be able to comment on the potential. Myself: I accept long ranging as less confidently reliable than our week one-two forecasts, but this science will gradually improve as more research and capabilities are applied.
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CoCoRaHs two day totals as also posted under Ophelia topic. Ignore the 13.31 typos in sw CT. Undoubted some 5+ on the southern and northwest edge of of the NYC subforum... so far.
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GEPS the only model on board for this significant additional coastal flood/rain event as GEFS has progressed seaward. EPS still an option but I haven't seen the 06z/25 EPS trend. For now, I keep this potential on the table as a likely event for NJ/LI southward. There is the option for a non event but what I'm seeing right now even in the GFS...daily minor coastal flooding NJ coast for the week, with a chance for a moderate Tuesday afternoon-evening high tide and this without the mid Atlantic low pressure at the end of the week.
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I did note no FFW's overnight... NWS win but imo, wasn't the best choice where modeling emphasized 3+" in 24 hours overnight. However, it is noted no big problems in that zone, to my knowledge as of 9A/25. Conservative wins on my awareness concern.
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Via CoCoRaHs climate two day storm totals as someone else said 1-5". The 13.31 in sw CT is obvious typo. Southern Ocean County NJ had a 5+ and undoubtedly with more coming into Tuesday morning, some of these amounts will go up. Many reports 3-4" overnight ne PA arced across just to the north of I84 in NYS-CT. Modeling by the GFS for this entire event was woeful... just not very good. Remember early NAM etc had 4" Hud Valley. Watch the NAM and RGEM for clues on modeling for the 28th-30th. More on that in the Sept thread.
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So tomorrow morning we'll know whether another small but significant FF event has occurred without a watch se NYS/extreme ne NJ. AWARENESS, especially nighttime is quite valuable and especially when modeling is giving an option of spot 4-6" up there. Sure looks like big delays tomorrow morning coming into NYC from NYS, maybe northern NJ too.
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More background... Ophelia leaves behind an impression at the surface, but a new short wave cutting across CHIcago 12z Wed, sort of gets absorbed into the remnant trough aloft off the mid Atlantic coast with subsequent building heights in southern Canada forcing the trough to become stronger and possibly sag west or southwest. Upwelling from recent Tropical systems still leaves behind 70+SST off the mid Atlantic coast, and with the system lingering over those 70+SST waters Oct 1... I could see this starting to transition to at least partial warm core, if not Sunday..maybe Monday or Tuesday. Hope this is of value. Don't like wasting time. I see 12z Modeling keeps this option open. Right now, it's further south than I anticipated. However, if this does go subtropical and lingers long enough over those waters, it eventually heads north or northeast. Anyway, I think it bears monitoring and I wouldn't put away the sand shovels yet along the waterfronts, nor leave my car parked near the break wall, thinking this weekend was the worst. Just don't know.
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Uncertainty but I think there will be substantial northeast-east isobaric gradient developing sometime in this time frame with tides starting out 1/2-3/4 foot higher than than that of current Ophelia impact. This combined with the continued daily constancy of onshore flow that began Sept 22 for NJ-DE-MD suggests to me increased beach erosion-coastal flooding """potential"""" beyond that of Ophelia Questions: If this low pressure system does form, can it muster subtropical characteristics and la-lo track of the center. Worthy of monitoring. Right now I can't grab anything from the FSU web site to check phase diagrams. I added the EPS 24 hr QPF ending Saturday morning suggesting something going on late this coming week.
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Adding this for a a late week tease by the EPS
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Started thread because of my concern for a higher impact sub tropical storm off the mid-Atlantic coast combining with tides 1/2-3/4 foot higher than what we saw for Ophelia this weekend of Sept 23rd-24th. Would compound damage from Ophelia, especially beach erosion with constancy of northeast wind from Sept 22 through probably October 3rd.
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Added the CPC October outlook as prepared Thursday Sept 21.
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Following up on the 748AM Saturday post above: NJ coast is possibly in a period of a two week repeated tidal flooding-serious beach erosion in spots, during the highest daily tide cycles. More on that in an updated post here or separate new topic post coming around 9A which will include my 60-70% expectation of gale-wind-rain NYC subforum between Thu the 28th and Sunday Oct 1. Timing uncertain but my confidence is increasing despite model disagreement. If this gale occurs for NJ coast, it will be a more serious damage event than the current Ophelia event. Also, per modeled upper air weakness this is not the last of the potential for a tropical system to the mid Atlantic coast in early-mid October, beyond whatever possible hybrid might occur Sep 30-Oct 1.
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WPC FFG through 12Z Monday, and I think this has a decent chance of realization ne NJ, extreme se NYS, with a lower chance CT but these locations are where I think spot new 24 hours 4" can occur by 12z/Monday with slow moving upper low, and PW near 1.65", possibly permitting focused 2-3" of rain in 6 hours above mentioned areas. Axis of max rainfall I suspect will be north of I78 next 24 hours so the 4-5" in Ocean County NJ as seen on this two day CoCoRaHs total will probably remain below 7" with max rainfall arced somewhere between 180-184. See Sept topic for what I think is a likely gale NJ coast late this week, the uncertainty...how far north...does it include the NYC subforum a little further south? On the graphs: click for clarity. Thanks.
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Easterly gradient and tidal flooding Thursday Sep 28-Sunday Oct 1. Multiple tide cycles have a chance of minor coastal flooding, with moderate possible on one or two cycles as tides runs high in this time frame. Modeling is trying to develop low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast with a fairly strong high over New England. Could be of future interest for tides/gale/rain for NJ/LI?
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As of 11z/23... GFS is short=LOW on qpf NJ/PA and modeling forward looks to me like any combo of other models and their ensembles will be more realistic in results than the 00z-06z/23 GFS-GEFS combo. That means for me... spotty 5" rainfall in NJ (and possibly LI portion) of the subforum by 18z/Monday the 25th. Minor flooding at the higher of the high tides this weekend. Max wind axis more or less where it is now...maybe drifting a bit north which favors 40-50 MPH gusts southern edge of the subforum -southern Ocean County. Canadian modeling tip: RGEM when it shows light precip...that often being drizzle; whereas HRRR does not tend to show drizzle but performs fairly well on axis of heavier qpf. Already measuring here in extreme nw NJ. Commenting on Sep 28-30 in that topic.
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May be time to get this into separate subject... now that NHC has it as a disturbance eventually turning out to near the benchmark. I won't be able to do anything with this after 4P and for me probably needs another ensemble cycle (00z/22). I sure hope this isn't another (as in the 7th-14th of Sep) non watch FFW situation for PHL/NYC metro areas this weekend. General stream flow potential is low but it seems to me that 6 hr FFG for ne NJ is under 2"= vulnerable. Monitoring
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Good to know the general stats and agree w you on need for more dstorm track detail! I tend to support the GFS in summer due to convection being handled pretty well by the GFS but this is more of a winter synoptic pattern so the CMC has a good chance of being reasonably accurate as compared to GFS/EC op. Ensembles have saved our bacon, I think, in too much trimming northern fringe. Other short term modeling soon comes into forecasting play by this time tomorrow.
