wdrag
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For the enthused, a thread was started for the event and you can shift comments there uf you wish. I'm still reticent as written via comment in the thread.
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
wdrag replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
19z/8 NBM 1.6" NYC, 12z/8 GEFS less than 1" NYC, 12z/8 CMCE less than 1" and the EPS while around 2" NYC Positive snow depth growth, it busted pretty bad 1/28-29 on being too far south. So, we'll see how this plays. WPC has all chances of 3" snow north of I80. D5-6 opportunity: will want to verify against these data that I'll append shortly and we'll see what might have been best at this distant time. These graphics added at 539PM. All identified. Positive snow depth is my base amount that I use, then double in the axis, or even use Kuchera or 10 to 1 if cold enough thicknesses for TOP of the range. For now, the positive snow depth change is good start for me. -
I was going to wait til at least 6A Friday to further review since there is much uncertainty including sfc temps, but someone else started the thread.
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Will review carefully this eve and possibly start a thread but need some acc NYC. Am on the road now so won’t know on a thread til 9pm. Just keep Monitoring on this Feb thread. NYC due for another 1-3 since it’s only had one of the normal 3 per winter. Thanks Don
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06z/8 EPS + snow depth change... warrants continued restraint on expectations I80 NYC LI. Click for clarity..
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Focusing on single op cycles vs ensembles is a probable mistake. Consensus continues north of us for all global models snowfall so far. That's why there is no enthusiasm. Realistic is the way to go. Generally need Nov-Dec snow to have a good winter as posted earlier. Stats support. I hope we're not cooked, even out here in extreme nw NJ. Maybe the stats will add outlier sample of decent NYC snow by seasons end? Back tonight.
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No thread this morning: Modeling overall says I84 is more or less the south boundary of 1-2" of snow. Ensembles via the GEFS have less than 45% of 1" of snow in 48 hour period NYC early next week. I added the NBM from 07z/8 through Valentines Day: I can't thread anything and am not upbeat about a winter thread for a while. I think it a good idea to wait for another 12-48 hours before any thread. Wish I could be more enthusiastic. I'll check back tonight.
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Right now, I can't start a thread for NYC-LI 1/2-4" snowfall 2/13 ish cause 19z NBOM and positive snow depth change on the latest 12z CMCE/EPS and 18z GEFS are all less than 2". Too risky for a loser thread. Wind gusts right now are ensembled 40-45 MPH which is marginal wind advisory and a day of OBS thread. If ensembles grow together on snowfall for I80 region we'll get it going but for now, at least from myself, I cannot confidently proclaim we'll get 2" at CP for either the 13th or 18th-19th. I hope this changes. The 13th event looks to me like north of I84, probably best snowfall north of I90. NAVGEM may be a best fit? Certainly the ensembles are not optimistic for I80 area This can adjust since we' re still talking D6-7. Back tomorrow morning. Best to all. Walt
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No time to look but on wind. All should be aware that CPC has had us in a slight chance of a big wind event 14th-roughly 18th. Just go to CPC hazards and the probabilistic elements and you’ll see wind flagged in the northeast. If we eventually thread something it might be primarily damaging wind In any case I can’t look closely til 630pm
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Excellent and well stated! Anyone can start a thread but I prefer to start those that have a better assurance of at least half the subforum accurate verification for a long lead time.
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One error on sigh and composure- ensembles... The CNN voice is between aircraft and Air Traffic Control. The Cockpit Voice Recorder which I think holds 2 or more hours of sound was overwritten, which must be some sort of airline/FAA procedural oversight on saving that data. Still, it's instructive. Let's go snow!
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Also, I think there is a lot to learn from NTSB aircraft incident reports...the way they are investigated, written, referenced.
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No specific reference; It's a forum. I get excited too, but too many failures direct me to restrain my spoken thoughts. For now, I dont know exactly what is ahead except it's worthy to monitor but for a wider area than just our NYC subforum. For sure, this future is looking a little better than December.
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For those who want a big one that is less Thread the Needle so to speak, I like a big upper low formed off DE traveling out to the bench mark, having been formed from short waves diving se from the upper midwest and joining forces with a southern streamer and timing out to our south. Those are the ones with large areal deep snows, plenty of 850MB easterly flow (50kt) and presumably cold enough surface high to the north. This one coming up doesn't look like that... it has hope if the latitude can be us. I'm sure 3+ between I80 and Montreal as is WPC via their implied D6-7 in their 10% two days of 3+ in the northeast. For now, it's not worth a thread for me.
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Sigh... Can I ask to lower excitement. Think of yourselves in the cockpit of a 737 and you blow out a door. Composure wins... good learning experience for those up and coming in life to maintain vigilance, follow procedures and ensembled guidance for a safer approach both work and family, an approach that can be at least a partial win for the large adjunct Atlantic Ocean subforum and subsequently a more positive outcome. Yesterdays CNN has details of the Cockpit Voice Recorder on how that 737 door incident was handled. Calm-procedural. For me that will have to be ensembled and remember the Canadian has to have it (my relearned lesson AGAIN the past failed thread) Modeling for the 06z/7 GFS op doesn't fit the ensembled short wave scenario (intensity and therefor big dump in a few hours). If the resulting storm is weaker, less advection fields, less lift, etc etc. Give this a chance. Ptype and T at D6 can be a little shaky and for snow, its a fine line, as we all know. On snow depth: That's all that was available for the smaller geography shown but we have none now, so consider that a start for adding some snow. Back tonight.
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Will revisit at 530PM and then, if good, all the ensemble guidance for this event will post plus BOM which is under 1.5" or less NYC and LI -07Z version.
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CMCE and EPS Positive Snow Depth change under 1" NYC, but 10 to 1 EPS does have 2-3 as the GEFS. If the models were that good at 6-7 days nailing Ptype/Temp, wow. But they're not--just the idea that event is coming to the northeast USA. Think we can wait before stirring more certainty.
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GEFS 10 to 1 has 2" NYC but Positive Snow Depth Change under 1". Think it best to wait til 630PM ish this evening, rather than chase something that is 1" or less this far out. Has some hope.
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Will look at this closely for a thread, if NYC can show 2+ on the 06z GEFS... for now, think I'd ;like to wait til this evening. It is 6 days out.
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My call 6+. His call I dont know, but I do know that we're not talking 1-3" climo.
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Regarding winter prospects last two weeks of Feb. CPC Friday week 3-4 (appended) and Tomer mirror each other, drier and cooler than normal here. It's ensemble guidance and imperfect. A bump north and we're good as Bluewave mentioned. My problem: the D8-14 from the NAEFS still has us warmer than normal 11th-18th., albeit attempting to cool around the 14th and after. So what? Cause, the 06z/3 GEFS 24 snow depth change appended here, shows what we may be suspecting. Elevation dependent snow snowfall is more prominent and inland (climo?). Think it might take a while to rid ourselves of the modified Pacific airmass which at this point in my mind doesn't bode well for NYC/LI. At least the SST's are near normal. So my hope for this pattern to produce continues, in part due to the more favorable 5H structure, in part due to a reliable long ranger that likes the option for a decent megalopolis snowstorm this winter- (communications since last summer), and in part due to what I see is the verifying CNN story Dec 2 post, appended. I just need to live well outside of weather, prior to something budding favorably. If interested-click the graphics for a little more clarity.
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Update the initial Jan thread with monthly verification and comments.
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fwiw..I added the CPC updated Feb outlook from Jan 31 to the initial thread so we can look back.
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helps if we have snow cover for the colder period... presume all saw the new weeklies issued today (is the hope going to verify in our favor later Feb-early March?)
