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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Thank you for this... I guess I have to play it more conservative. Reasons: timing of the rain (nighttime is less impact on outdoor), amounts, and some folks would say you can't include Friday. Both our evals do confirm AMWX participant sentiments. Thank you again for double checking... takes time to do this. Thanks.
  2. wdrag
    I take a few min to check CP ~1/2" or greater rainfall on weekend days and I've got 7/2,9,16; 8/13, 26, and 9/10,23 and the still a little wet 9/30. More or less if you use CP for cursory guidance, not the most pleasant JAS portions of weekends.
  3. wdrag
    Maybe bluewave or someone else with more energy than I would like to post how often are our weekends (Sat-Sun filled with 1" or greater rain since late June? Note sure the easiest way to track it, but you all are probably more up on this than I. As you know, I've had to give up on the subtropical transition early this week as the reflux storm has tracked more se than South. However, I'm still interested in next weekend here and the following as well (7-8, 14-15). Both seem to have some sort of storminess here... whether it ends up just a 1/4-3/4" CFP, or something a little bigger with a coastal low... still tbd but I'm not done looking off the se coast for a little development later this week and northward ingest Saturday. The EPS right now lags the ever amplifying GEFS into the eastern USA next Fri-Saturday. If its flatter, then just a windy cfp. If not, then gets a little more interesting for a possible 1-3" event. Too early for me.
  4. wdrag
    The wrap on 10/1: EPS prevailed in the general outlook from prior to 9/27. The mesoscale modeling, especially 12z-18z/28 HRRR and SPC HREF, and at times the RRFS and NAM nailed the potential for 5-10" amounts. NYC CP #9 wettest 24 hour day in history back to 1869 (5.48") and JFK 8.05 "wettest day in history after records began 1948. Minor coastal flooding occurred for at least one of the daily high tide cycles along the NJ coast from 9/24-10/1 with isolated moderate and certainly beach erosion of varying magnitude. We survived pretty well, partly because of prior lessons learned in NYC and partly because the primary flooding occurred during the daylight hours. Added two day event totals as a 9/30 sampling of what occurred. A little more added on Sunday after the two day totals but the essentials are here.
  5. wdrag
    Near constant at least one daily high tide cycle NJ coast from Tuesday Sept 24 through today Oct 1 has had minor coastal flooding, spotty near moderate flooding, including that of today (10/1). Beach erosion had to be significant and may not know the whole story for a while.
  6. wdrag
    Letting this die away quietly. Still keeping an eye off the se USA coast later this week but for now... nothing. If something got going out there, there would be a chance for something weak to sweep north toward the benchmark. For now, not modeled. Of interest, the value of differing contributing factors to big events. 9/29 NYC for example... pathetic weak surface low, but right amounts of instability, concentrated inflow lift for 18 hours and PW near 1.7". Yield-impact was pretty large there, in case you missed the news for the top 10 daily rainfall JFK, NYC CP.
  7. wdrag
    Two day amount sample via reported CoCoRaHs data. Click for clarity. Highest a little over 10" NJ coast. Also added NYS Mesonet. JFK highest daily rainfall 'ever' since POR began 1948 (8.05"), and CP #9 wettest day at 5.48 with POR back to 1869. Will add a little summary to the originating section post tomorrow morning when all data in. Added 18z/28 HRRR for comparison. HRRR probably the best inside of 36 hours.
  8. wdrag
    Homelife leaves me out of the loop but you're probably aware CP TOP8 or 9 DAILY rainfall ever (not just Sept). Please correct me if I'm wrong.... Thanks, Walt
  9. wdrag
    And what is the pressure off the Low. Maybe 1008 MB! Doesn't take an intense low to create near record rainfall. Eye opener.
  10. wdrag
    However, I continue interested in what will evolve off the se USA coast. next week. And, right now, one strong trough is forecast to evolve over the ne USA by the end of next weekend. It could easily draw at 6-18 hour swath 1.7" PW up here and depending on low pressure location provide more 1"+ rainfall. Definitely different than the whatever amounts out there (multiple 6+?). I've got to run but will be looking for CP 1 day top 10, with at least 5.7 for the calendar day as to be rerouted at 445P, and the 24 18z-18z will be at least 5.7. XMACIS says that's a top 10 daily at CP.
  11. wdrag
    I went back in Pivotal wx to 12z Tue PW 1.6" which definitely sagged south and then acquired more PW east of the Carolinas and has since bulged north to LI as of 06z/29 EC op. EPS ens do not have PW on National scale. Reflux works for me but without the detail needed to confirm via soundings, trajectories. I don't want to upset anyone about this, but points well taken earlier. Looking ahead...I won't reflux what happens Oct 5-8.
  12. wdrag
    Should this storm be named for our purposes??? Ophelia Reflux? We need to go back to Tuesday and look at the north edge suppression of PW 1.7” and see if it was shoved south to 35N70W and popped back up this morning to s if LI. That’s number one item.
  13. wdrag
    Snapshot of 2-4.3" that has fallen via this CoCoRaHs climate reports this morning. Click for clarity. Be smart crossing roads where water flowing quickly over roads, especially after sunset.
  14. wdrag
    Thanks for all the useful posts. Now 2.5-2.75 coastal Monmouth into Queens. If I get a chance I'll set a 24 hour NJ CLIU at Noon and then add up new from there as first dribs and drabs began midday yesterday in NJ.
  15. wdrag
    For now, staying in tropical (sub) for October posts, but first week of Oct looks interesting to me off the SE USA coast tracking northward ahead the next weekend cold front. No blatant signs but modeling does have low pressure strewing off the se coast USA and for me it's a worthy monitor for developing another significant rain event here Friday the 6th-Sunday the 8th...at least LI/CT.
  16. wdrag
    Thanks for this... did spot check just now. Let's talk again when our 445P CLI rolls in for the traDdtional long term sites.
  17. wdrag
    I just checked BDR, ISP and CP. 24 hours top 10 may be in reach depending on which 24 hour period you use. #10 is around 4.5-5". Two day looks like 6-7.25" will put you in top 10. Wont post those details til we get within an inch. So, wasn't looking for the month. Looking for the event. Glad you have the month tucked in somewhere. Can't keep up with this and Homelife. You all have it.
  18. wdrag
    Yes, the way it looks to me is many 5-10" reports in the prime zone near NYC-LI northward Hud River to the Ct River. Also need to check all time 24 hour and 48 hour rainfall CP for starters, maybe POU and BDR ISP to see if we get top 10 historically-Bluewave check? And power outages could become a problem by tonight-sodden group tree up roots? Finally, most dangerous time for travel could be this evening-night in the last big pileup of flooding rain. This graphic is from 18z/28 but looks pretty good to me for best areas to monitor. T
  19. wdrag
    For what its worth...have checked some Climate station data NYS Mesonet and NJ meson, plus our house in Wantage of far nw NJ. The OKX and BGM STP's (Derived storm total on the Radarscope APP) look accurate. Am over 1/2" in Wantage and over 2.2" parts of w LI. I'd be checking that for reality and kudos HRRR and NAM/RRFS late yesterday for honing in on primary threat FF zone.
  20. wdrag
    So what I'm following in the modeling this weekend and to whatever it is or isn't early next week. Attached 48 HRRR satellite and gust prediction--a model individual cycle snapshot for 18z Saturday Oct 30. Gusts probably 10 MPH too high at 48 hours but worthy of monitoring?
  21. wdrag
    So this is what I'm going to follow in the tropical discussion as this gale center possibly transitions in its se-s motion away from us Sunday. It's modeling and the HRRR could be 10 MPH too high on its 48 hour 65 MPH gust prediction for early Saturday afternoon but with showers there... I wouldn't want to be sailing. NOT smart, imo. 18z Saturday satellite simulation from the 18z/28 HRRR and its gust prediction well south of LI/RI
  22. wdrag
    Smattering of 0.01-.02 se NYS and NJ so far since midday including Wantage NJ. Global models not changing too much on amounts...general 1-3 spot 4. Blend of Models, 13z/28 version, finally hammered NYC/e NJ etc with 4-7" but this takes into account the the mesoscale models. Those mesoscale continue bullish, though I think shifting east to favor more LI/CT, NYC/Hud River and extreme e NJ... their amounts seem so high for a cooler surface temp/dewpoint. My guess is the RRFS is too far west with BOM near NYC and the HRRR SPC HREF more CT/LI eastern NJ/NYC seem to me more probable, at least at this juncture, but could still shift a bit. I added SPC HREF chance of 3" in 6 hrs ending 18z/29 (grey-20% chance), and its overall 48 hour mean and max. These are big numbers... but for me disturbing that the globals including SREF are considerably less. Click for clarity.
  23. wdrag
    NON TS expert comment. Just using guidance. Will review much more closely on the 29th when our low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast is becoming better defined. All I see on FSU multi global model phase diagrams(00z/28) is opportunity to become a warmer core by Oct 1, with track Oct 1 onward having opportunity to drift south to southwest but still well off the Carolinas. For now it's nothing and good to keep a lid on what I see is as a meandering potential tropical system early next week off the se USA coast. If this does happen, then it eventually picks up in a NNE track by the 7th. Still of interest for me...but thinking will know much more late Friday on it's potential evolution to a warmer core. Just need to monitor. 8A/28.
  24. wdrag
    I'll add my 2c at 5P... suggest mowing completed today. You may not like your soggy ground even on a rain free Sunday I84 corridor southward NJ-seNYS-SNE-LI. My guess is that NWS is waiting on any FFA because the GEFS/SREF/NAEFS are much more conservative than the GEPS-EPS 2-4" event and as you've all posted the iso 7" on highly resolved mesoscale guidance. Also, NWS may be holding off due to no ensemble guidance showing minor flooding which is because these river forecasts use the ensemble output which seems to me wayyy too low. More at 5P after mowing.
  25. wdrag
    I think our WFO's tend to stay close to WPC beyond 12 hours... one NWS voice. They also had the conservative GEFS on their low side. Just saw the 18z EC OP... continues bullish-attached. Uncertainty with RRFS/NAM tending more NYS or west of NYC, while EC is definitely east of RRFS. Time to iron this out and also figure the confidence of seeing any 6's. NWS Blend of Models also much less than EC/EPS, GEPS, RRFS/NAM. Walt
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