wdrag

Wantage NJ, this southern part 0.17 as of 1135A.

As mentioned by others above -more or less 1/2" or so northern edge near to just north of I80 for Saturday. Maybe the early clue was the GGEM of several days ago, the only model showing way south of GEFS-EPS. Think it's now GGEM/RGEM best model the rest of the cool season barring a TS situation. Even the last FFWatch situation the Canadian models were down. Which brings me to Tuesday(17)-Wednesday(18)... might be something to watch for a strong coastal off NC-VA edging northeast or east-northeast. The GGEM from a few days ago was the only model showing this becoming a pretty sizable rain-wind event back to NJ-LI. Evolution of the Saturday (14th) short is not closing off, but its remnant and central North America feeder short waves may close this upper trough into a deep cyclonic low just east of VA. Am watching daily trends...still 5-6 days away so can't be sure, but that one to me is my own greater wind/rain interest for the NYC subforum, and then whatever can evolve next weekend. So this weekend, rain yes... but amounts 1+ seem to me to probably be mostly south of I78. Mesoscale excesses: This last failed FFW situation near NYC has me make a change in assessing. If I see those mesoscale models go ballistic (5+ in 24 hours), I want to make sure I have Global ensemble assurance of about 3+. I can always see bands of heavier than ensemble (and bands of less as well), but radically higher than the ensemble, I'm not so sure and I need to be conservative buying into the RRFS/HRRR/NAM excesses. Finally: while cool, it still hasn't dropped below 37F here in this part of Wantage NJ... seems to be a less than colorful leaf peeping season in this part of the world.

Ensembles through 00z/11 this weekend: trending south and not heavier. Monitoring but nothing close for me to prompt a flood impact topic.

From myself: a fun look if it was winter... not enough qpf here for me to think topic, at least not yet. Have a day!

Still in my mind uncertainty regarding timing and amounts of rain NYC subforum based 00z/06z global ops and ensembles. I saw a channel broadcasting 2-3" amounts in parts of the area this weekend. Could be, and I think the CMC 00z/9 version is wrong (too far south) being dry here, but yet it is a consideration for my incorporation. AI day6 does have low prob excessive in central-s NJ. Noted ensemble pattern seems to favor some sort of rain event the following weekend as well (21st-22nd) but the 24 hour yield is not much, so far. 718A/9.

I just checked (00z/8) machine learning AI and there is no GEFS outlook of excessive rain, even the lowest probs. Remembering for yesterday..the SPC HREF had no probs of 1,2,3" in 6 hours. Obviously that was wrong for 1 and 2 but it was not concentrated probs, so for me modeling is suggesting, caution ahead til we get closer. Those SPC HREF probs differed for the big one on the 29th when there were 6 hours probs for 3" near NYC.

Noted on Rain totals from late Thursday through Monday of early next week. ENS amounts are generally near 1.4". Far too early for me to tell if it will be a bigger event, and timing is very different between the Canadian and USA models (CMC vs GFS) with CMC models mostly next Monday here in the NYC subforum.

here is a graphic of mutisensor rainfall (appropriated from another non forum post) but easily available on line.Check the verified max axis (this graphic and CoCoRaHs) with the mesoscale modeling and it was a good fit, just too heavy in our NYC-CT-NYS border slot.

CoCoRaHs two day amounts (really Friday night-Saturday: No 3" as far as I can tell. Mesoscale models tended to be way overdone. 1.5" this part of Wantage. I may add an update for two day radar assessed, later today.

Wantage NJ 1.4" as of 1055A..official and relayed NWS. Ambient reading 1.48.. a bit too high. I see an FFW near Monticello.

Wantage NJ at least 1.1" since 8A, Ambient says 1.2" but the stratus will be less as the automated gages tend to run a touch high. Walt 10A/7

Rainfall rate in that band in Sussex County over 1.3/hour. Here at home about .65 in the last 1.5 hours. So it is raining and I saw a CH4 news flood extraction in ne NJ earlier this morning so it is raining hard in spots.

Just saw numerous 1.5-2" amounts in a band ne NJ. Plenty of time to crank the numbers ne NJ/se NYS/w CT. Here's a sampler of 8AM reports via CoCoRaHs. Looks like plenty of rain incoming from s of NYC.

Seems hard to believe that these high res models will verify more than 4" anywhere in our area. As of 6A, seems less robust than model anticipated by this time.

19z Blend of Models...damps out the big with global lower amounts. Still has the axis pretty good.

Advance Awareness is critical as well as decision makers relying more heavily on the outlooks. My feeling is we were a little slow to get going on awareness. 3PM with less than 24 hours lead time is not enough time for the slower larger institution wheels to get going on 9/29 and 10/7 (wherever it occurs). Like winter... the earlier the better, provided we have at least 50% success. R+ summer mesoscale prediction is not excellent yet, but I do think the potency is well advertised 2-3 days in advance. We just need to believe a little more and not be afraid to be wrong (stats, peer pressure both which I think play a role in decision making). Something will go wrong tomorrow, but for now, at least the watch looks accurately portrayed. Possibly needs to be a little larger, in case the max axis shifts a little to left or right, or northward. Anyway, I'll check back tomorrow morning when action should be plentiful.

18z HRRR added

Record daily rainfall values in the POR at POU 2.51-1972 and NYC CP 4.09-1972. Add on as deemed useful Above normal small stream flows from ne NJ into extreme se NYS and w CT, plus multiple small scale modeling of 3-5" and worst case maximum 7+ prompts this topic. WPC has marginal to slight risk excessive and a watch was just issued for the primary concern area at 312PM. It's possible the small scale models have gone overboard, especially the attached FV3 HRW but the SPC MAX amount axis of over 7" and other 12z/6 max axis modeling suggests the primary area of Turn around Don't Drown concern Saturday, if any roads are inundated. Support from PW near 1.6", a 12 hour nearly stationary inflow axis Saturday morning and modeled embedded lightning. The NYC-vicinity max axis may already be forming mid afternoon Friday (monitor radar). Awareness of potential assists mitigating unexpected impacts, planning your day. Again, we'll see what the tallies are but we should not expect as an expansive area of 5+ rainfall as last Friday, though isolated amounts of 5" seem to be within reach somewhere in a 20 miles radius of NYS northward to about 30 miles either side of CT-NYS border. Axis may vary. but multi cycle modeling suggests this is one of primary areas of concern. Self explanatory 12z/6 modeling amounts by 00z/Sunday 8 Oct 2023. There we(RE NO-corrected 10/8) SPC HREF Probs of 1,2,3" in this 12z/6 cycle which suggests modeling errors. Caution but worthy of monitoring.

Also awaiting completion 12z SPC HREF and 12z RRFS. Daily records 10/7/23 CP 4.09 1972 and POU 2.51.

Starting another topic for spotty 3-6" rains tomorrow somewhere ne NJ/se NYS/w LI and w CT. some isolated FF potential, despite recovery from late last week. FV3 future GFS has spotty 8" near NYC. Looks too large and I prefer the 3-5" bands but... it's early. In a hurry now.

From what I can tell... spot 3-5" rains by Saturday 11PM, somewhere Hud Valley to just west of the Ct River. This batch of heaviest seems to be destined for just north of NYC///more likely se NYS and or w CT. 709AM/6

Excellent addition-explanation of where we may be going. Takes time. I think the SPC HREF, HRRR and RRFS should have a better idea of amounts and axis..especaily the 12z/6 versions but even the 00z/6 should be of use.

Adding on: NWS mid shift 10/5 (00z cycle) excessive guidance for Saturday was more expansive than the conservative GEFS qpf, for Saturday. See the AI left and NWS right. Click for clarity. Thanks.

This and the HRRR 48 hour were the best for the record deluge NYC last Friday. This and other models are hinting spot 3-5" NYC forum... where exactly is not confidently stated yet... but have a look at this through 22z/Saturday. Highlighted an amount near NYC...most of this Saturday. Click for clarity. 105P/5.

Yes, and a pretty good chance of above normal October rain totals. GEFS lags again (seems to in my end) through the 18th, GEPS about 2.5" and EPS 3-3.5". Obviously 00z-06z/4 ensemble projections and one of the see is large error... but the pattern evolution looks to me to be trough east this month.