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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Attached shows WPC slipping the max axis a little southeast Probably no thread from me today on this. Will rearview early Monday. Also about 0.55" in 30 minutes here in this part of Wantage NJ (Sussex County of the northwest part of the state and still thundering) through 159PM (now) and still raining.
  2. wdrag
    Let's take another look at this around 630PM when a whole bunch of new guidance is available. I want to see ECMWF EFI hold firm. This is going to be a tantalizer, I think...slow moving. Different daily relatively narrow paths of 1-3" rainfall from this afternoon, & Tuesday onward. Not sure if anyone else is noticing the potential for a narrow line of heavy showers/storms moving seed in the 6P-midnight time frame Monday. There may are some thoughts to no-go so I'll review and think on it, pending new guidance. Thanks for the feedback.
  3. wdrag
    WPC 7-10" next 7 days in much of NJ on their3AM products. PRE seems in the mix somewhere between northern NYS to DE. Result: lots of flooding beyond the Debby 5 day impacts se USA (ie late this week or coming weekend). No more watering needed for a while. Wantage (this part) 1.44 on Fri and about 0.7 yesterday. imo, HRRR is not responding well to its supposed convection advantage, until a little too late, though it has had Monday evening pegged since yesterday (48 hr product). RGEM HRDPS are worthy of reviewing for big clusters and of course the SPC HREF, where I pay attention to the max bullseye. If you want a thread for the potency ahead, go for it or let me know. For now, I want to wait til late today at the earliest. NHC still not talking flooding in the mid-Atlantic-ne USA. Added all 00z/4 guidance: WPC 7 day total, The GEFS prob for flooding rain and the ECMWF EFI (extreme forecast signal-prob looks pretty high just south of NYC)... all modeling suggesting pockets serious east coast flooding potential NYC down I95 into the se USA. Use the legends for your advantage. Have a day. 641A/4
  4. wdrag
    One final note on all this: I guess the deniers are not too happy with James Hanson in 1988... see below. Also fwiw: I've seen documentation that the areal coverage of -5C in winter is the 4th or 5th smallest in the past 79 years and that extreme cold is losing the battle by a huge margin to extreme warmth in recent years. Carry on with threads as best you view... Here's a sample about and from James Hanson 1988. The world is shifting towards a superheated climate not seen in the past 1m years, prior to human existence, because “we are damned fools” for not acting upon warnings over the climate crisis, according to James Hansen, the US scientist who alerted the world to the greenhouse effect in the 1980s. Hansen, whose testimony to the US Senate in 1988 is cited as the first high-profile revelation of global heating, warned in a statement with two other scientists that the world was moving towards a “new climate frontier” with temperatures higher than at any point over the past million years, bringing impacts such as stronger storms, heatwaves and droughts.
  5. wdrag
    On March 2 attached the Feb verification to p1. Looks like our local take verified OK with the mid month chilling, and twice the Jan paltry snow total at CP. and the CPC trend to below normal qpf also worked out best with east coast events trailing off the coast south of our area.
  6. wdrag
    Just in case you may be looking to me for a thread, start threads as you see best including background support. I'll add a Feb wrap, late March 1 or 2.
  7. wdrag
    Verification for the non event. Also added to the bottom of initial post for those interested in comparing how poor ensembles can be 5-7 days in advance.
  8. wdrag
    Changed my mind at 537A/20 to do a Title tightening up and downgrade. Modeling is there to see. Too warm for snow acc NYC... if a short period of wet snow occurs. Overall tho, thread is of little added value to the bulk of the NYC subforum membership, except maybe its too early in the winter 23-24 evening for last call? If you see snow from this... enjoy the moment. Please continue posting elsewhere for non-Feb 23 related snow-ice. Thank you. No reason for me to change anything added last evenings mainly elevation dependent discussion regarding the event evolution and expectations, including banding signature. NBM, GEFS SREF show nothing... seems a little negative from what am seeing but certainly no hazard headline for most of the NYC subforum.
  9. wdrag
    Adding on: to me this is looking like a a 6PM Thu-3PM Fri mixed wintry event with I84 mainly elevation snowfall. Questionable whether its cold enough for elevation pavement accum and so questionable on hazards but thinking rapidly deepening sfc low pres passes s of LI out near the benchmark Fri eve and the boundary layer temp guides whether the modest banding http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ seen on the 18z/19 GFS 10-16z Friday can yield snow instead of rain I84. Added one banding potential graphic. If interested check the link and move to 15z Fri. NYC probably too warm for any mixed snow but am expecting mPing rain-wet snow mixed to the nearby nw suburbs Fri 6A-10a in heavier precip rates. This lead short wave apparently is running out a little too far ahead of the northern stream diving- increasing amplitude trough that crosses the northeast Saturday to do what I thought it might 3 days ago. Should be sct snow showers or flurries Saturday with steep laps rates. One example of banding signature attached. It's been on the GFS for several cycles now, resulting -shown as deeper green fall rates 12z-18z Fri. I'm letting the headline ride until Tue evening, when I may finally be convinced no snow acc hi terrain early Fri pocs/nw Nj through nw CT and MA. I just think this is too marginal a situation to say no to an I84 elevated event, especially 72-90 hours in advance. fwiw...if we dont get this wet snow Fri AM, this may be our last decent chance for 3 or 4 weeks???? Am off line til mid Tuesday morning.
  10. wdrag
    I’ll work on that late tomorrow if indeed no hazardous snow ice, probably elevation dependent. Temps too marginal to say no, at least for me, i expect models increase areal elevation coverage of snow ice tonight and tomorrow. If not then it’s a complete busted thread. Thanks for your suggestion Am on the road.
  11. wdrag
    Verification added via NOHRSC and CoCoRaHSwith the infamous banding near I78 that dumped 6-13" from s LI beaches west to Allentown. DCA 0.1, BWI 2.2, PHL 2.6, ABE 5.7, NYC CP 2.0, BDL 0.7, ORH 0.5w, and BOS T. looks to me like GEFS did best using the initial ensembles within this thread.
  12. wdrag
    Good analysis. Clearly the GGEM and GfS have finally shown a se trend. Nothing set in stone but this potential is on the table. Maybe only elevations but i can’t rule out anything including wet snow NYC if this closes off near NYC in the fast developing passage
  13. wdrag
    This so far is looking like a busted thread, but the potential in my mind continues. As we draw closer, this may start getting mapped a little clearer. I've not thrown in the towel. WPC continues the slightest potential for I84 3+". Admittedly not looking good but still a few days from merging the streams and cranking.
  14. wdrag
    I can do a conference call sometime mutually convenient to demo these tools... just need to set it up. The set up not my skill but then I can demo live how to use these two links and also go over Pivotal wx use of posi snow depth. We just need an event. Thanks - grandchild doing ok... Will add a couple maps of yesterdays snowfall during midday and also back to P1 thread initiation to compare to the ensemble predictions.
  15. wdrag
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/snowbands/view.php The first two are from here, using .05 and .10 and you can see the members piling up. Scroll the time from start to finish and you see the evolution. I snapshotted this I can conference call this, though I have a sick grandchild so need to watch that situation. Time snapshot 08z-09z/17. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/. That's for the last two graphics 900-500 Fgen and 800-600 Fgen. Nam is my favorite...well defined and the lift is in advance of the red and black intense FGEN signal, downwind trajectory, I closed with the HREF max axis forecast. Am sure that had something to do with the PHI initial;l warning, Like the snow depth change graphics as a minimum amount, these are all worth checking-incorporating.
  16. wdrag
    The answer is yes. I’ll try to demonstrate with yesterday’s 12z. Guidance but w grand kids now. Probably 9pm tonight. It’s not exact bu I think we can do this within 60 mo either side in a 12-24 lead time. Demo later.
  17. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part) 2.1 so far at 930A.
  18. wdrag
    Think you're right. Even the big warmup near March 1 has possibilities.
  19. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part) 1.8" so far at 7A with ongoing light small flake snow. 25F No compacting. Beautiful here too.
  20. wdrag
    Started a thread at 5A/17. All yours.
  21. wdrag
    Different than the refresher powdery event of Sat Feb 17, and this past Tuesdays Feb 13 wetter snowstorm, it still has possibilities for adding to our winter snow totals with modeled "potential" for half a foot or more for the I84 corridor inclusive of the Poconos-extreme nw NJ interior sections se NYS-CT. Possibilities even exist for an inch or four down to I95 and NYC though for now, odds are less. This could be one warmer more rainy event the 22nd and then a following rapidly intensifying coastal storm Fri-Sat the 23rd-24th. As generally usual higher terrain-inland best chance for snow. A strong short wave in the eastern Pacific this weekend will move through the southwest USA early this coming week and probably be ingested into a series of northern stream Canadian short eaves that dive southeast into Midwest and form a sharp amplifying trough over the northeast USA by next weekend. Details tbd. This probably will be of NYC subforum interest for some of us the next few days as winter potential refuses to go away. Added 10 to 1 SLR, 24 hour 00z/17 global ensembles and the NWS 04z/17 very low chance 3+" snow D6-7, to look back upon when whatever transpires. Title tightening up and downgrade update at 537AM/20. Verification attached for a failed event- useless thread. Numerous traces of sleet -snow-rain mix I84 into NNJ 3P/22-9A/23 but modeled short waves remained separate with one tracking across se Canada and the other actually trailed and dropped down through the Carolines. Was over early per the poster comments.
  22. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part): 0.8" at 315A
  23. wdrag
    Won't start a thread til sometime tomorrow, pending all 3 global ensembles still I84 or coastal snow event (DC-BOS) around 2/23. Plenty of uncertainty and for now want a couple cycles similar and continued ever more digging so that we have a pretty substantial neg tilt 5H trough here. D5 ish would be the big model shift that would deflate our potential wintry weather.
  24. wdrag
    At 535 PM, I'll update the title if needed (add advisory) and add the NWS regional snowfall graphic, grandchildren babysitting possibly delaying. Banding will occur: MOST of it south of I80 but a period of banding 1/2-1" hr possible I80-LI and north by 25 miles. Best SLR's (fluffy) continue just nw of I95 with NYC in the vicinity of 10 to 1. MPing should be active after 1030PM. Event OBS herein this thread. Back at 530PM.
  25. wdrag
    IMPRESSIVE 12z HRRR... check the NAM and RDPS when they come in. I may adjust headline a bit at 230PM. For now though, refreshing snow cover coming.
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