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snowing down s of I84 in extreeeeme se NYS near Wilton CT per mPing.

Tomorrow I'll publish the CoCoRaHs snowfall... so far I've seen spotty traces ne PA, nothing NNJ & nothing se NYS but have seen 0.4 Catskills, and then Berkshires-Litchfield Hills widespread T-0.9" as of the report time. I suspect a few high terrain locations bordering NYS will have 1"+. The mixed w LI r/s was brief and inconsequential and seemed isolated (not counting for NYC first snow unless somehow CP has it). Anyway, minor late evening rain NYC subforum started Monmouth County I think around 7P. All winding down now NYC longitude westward. So again, imo, the EC early on was not as good as the GFS showing mostly a miss for NYC but within 48 hours was reasonable.

mping with rain sleet snow mix w LI, sw CT.

Good Halloween morning all! I hope it's good. Just a minor heads up for ne PA, Northern NJ northward for tomorrow morning-Nov 1. You may run into snow showers or a rain-snow shower mix, mainly high terrain Poconos-Catskills-Litchfield Hills, Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Could be a slight slushy accum on some high terrain roads (inch or less) and that mainly above 1000 feet, with coverings on the grass even down into northern and eastern Sussex County NJ to just north and west of NYC. Also fairly obvious that while our first freeze in the interior has been delayed two weeks later than average, there is little doubt that it will occur this Wednesday-Thursday-Friday mornings. Take in those dahlia bulbs and portect your favorites. 644A/31

Looking ahead: Yes I can see snow showers early Wednesday coating the Catskills/Litchfield Hills and maybe some Poconos above 1000 feet with 0.1 to 1" associated with the strong cold short wave (represented by the 5H vort max) passage. Should be some snow showers to track up there. Next Sunday the 5th might produce a band of showers for us in NYC. At this time not guaranteeing a dry weekend but the probability of rain is still rather low. Late next week Nov 8-11. Models confused on short wave dominance and trough location but interesting, with the result, a small potential first 32F NYC if the surface wind is due north (350-360 degrees). Just too far away to know how next week plays. At least early November shows some marginal interest in winter weather. Will post, if no one else does, the USA entire 31 day of October above-below normal T and Percent above/below normal precip. Probably won't happen till late Wed or Thursday from me. I'll also want that attached to the CPC outlook on p1 of the October thread. That's how I can gain confidence on reliability of long ranging.

Here are some recent numbers for the Sunday-early Monday event. Essentially this shows the EC-EPS and GEPS-GGEM-RGEM were far too far north in their predictions for qpf 06z Sunday-12z Monday, with the GFS/GEFS much-much more accurate here in the northeast USA. Note the NYC reservoir data is from before yesterdays event. So... we're 16% above normal. The GFS on large scale systems should not be trashed. Buying into the EC well in advance can be fraught with as much error as the GFS. In this case and probably the upcoming event early Wednesday... the GFS should prevail on best axis of qpf. Also...so far this season, in my mind, the GEPS-GGEM-RGEM (Canadian) has slipped to #3 behind the GFS, EC. I don't look at any other model too closely beyond 60 hours...don't have time and its a bit of a distraction for me when I';m trying to gauge reliability. 1003A/30

Could but not likely at least PHL- to Toms River northward. My guess per 12z/29 FOUS...not nearly enough south wind, imo

Might be...looks can are deceiving beyond 3 days but certainly. colder than normal first 11 days of the month. First freeze of the season this Thursday or Friday morning some of our interior CLI sites that Bluewave posted last week.

I think models are trying to say too far offshore for Wednesday (still tbd), but the CMCE and EPS still want to try for trace-1/2" snow cover New England-Catskills. Strong short wave no doubt, so I can see a band or two of snow showers Pocs/Catskils/nw NJ but not biting on anything significant yet for high terrain roads out there. Otherwise, no large snow threats looming, in my mind, prior to Nov 8. After that, chilly rain possible around the 9th-10th. As far as weekends go for the NYC subforum, a fast moving trough next Sunday might yield a band of light showers? Am not so hot on this as have been for today's action, whatever that may be. 00z/29 24 hr qpf ensembles as seen on tropical tidbits are very very weak on the next Sunday idea.

Good Sunday morning... I see it's measured in many parts of NYC metro this morning in the 3A-6A time frame. Does that qualify as a rain day for the weekend? It may not do too much today but it should rain or drizzle some more with most of the action a little north of I80.

Still no change from my view to the above based on the 12-18z/28 ops. I think EC is fading for early Wednesday, and so lthat eaves the Canadian still tying to hit us, and missing us early Wed and missing LI Sunday. I don't think the Canadian will be correct. fwiw... showers all the way from nw of Scranton (Justus-Roba Family Farms) to Branchville NJ this past afternoon. RRFS/HRRR best modeling and mainly shorter term. temps dropped 13F out there between Noon and 430P near Scranton PA higher terrain.

Keep following the modeling. I'm looking at SPC HREF, HRRR, and RRFS which all sort of nail everything periodic rain north of I78... however, as you note...it's possible the NAM and further N RGM will be correct. RGEM has been constantly north. I favor getting closer to the instability for showery precip and is why I initially favored the further south GFS/GEFS in the longer ranges leading up to this event. Tomorrow keys early Wed. If GFGS right tomorrow, then I too think it will be correct early Wed. Will check back tomorrow.

Not yet buying into the EC-GEM-UKMET cold precip scenario for Wednesday morning in our NYC subforum. Mainly using what happens here Sunday-tomorrow, as a marker for what happens here regarding the fast moving coastal option for early Wednesday. For now, imo, its the GFS NO vs the EC-GEM-UKMET-WPC wet (or elevation wet white) scenario for early Wednesday. I probably won't have opportunity to comment again til early Sunday. 10/28 639A based on 00z-06z/28 cycles including ensembles.

Scattered light showers this afternoon Poconos, (had sprinkles yesterday forenoon nw NJ), then probably periods of chilly rain Sunday-Monday NYC subforum. This is important because it was the EC that was initially very warm and dry today and it had a hard time dropping south. Nothing in the bag yet for tomorrow but I use this as a marker for whether the EC-GEM combo for tomorrow was way too far Northwest, as compared to the GFS ie no rain here vs rain on the GFS)... ditto for the November 1 snow threat as outlined by others in the Nov thread.

A period or periods of rain Sunday to keep the consecutive weekend rain events going? Models tending to edge a little south on the axis into our area And, if we get this one (whoever is counting), I can see another rain event next weekend (4th or 5th) as the sharp trough Tuesday morning passes, ridging quickly follows end of the workweek and then shortwaves chip away at the ridge next weekend. How it goes down both weekends, uncertain but favorable for a period of rain in the NYC subforum, imo. Also, dissapointing to hear the 5AM TV weather forecast for Halloween (31st). Chilly yes, qpf...I don't think that is favored and am not in the 00z/26 EC op camp for Tuesday. Finally: fwiw... your color may be pretty good where you are, and we certainly have some, but this is not nearly as colorful a year here in this part of nw NJ as compared to last. Maples lost their leaves too soon, and much less color. More yellows than reds. Enjoy the warmth this week. 619A26

No winter 23-24 outlook thread? Surprised...per all the very good Philly area mets. Maybe I'm looking in the wrong subforum.

I wish I could recommend Tempest, but cannot due to my own disappointment. Nothing is perfect. My Ambient just had a power supply failure after almost two years in existence and another is being sent to me free of charge. Power hit took it out. I'll stay with Ambient but if it fails again within a year, I probably will opt for greater expense Davis (which I hope will be more reliable). I scrolled off NYC subforum and found this topic of interest.

Also, what's the criteria for verifying rain this weekend? CP .01 anytime? Appreciate someone laying out the criteria for me. Thanks, Walt

Not sure if anyone is noticing but modeling is now showing sprinkles into the NYC subforum by daybreak Saturday and quite a difference in axis of qpf Sunday. with the EPS-GEPS well north of the GEFS. The GEFS sort of nails the northern half of the NYC subforum (I80ish north). Shall be interesting. Already had scattered showers this morning just north of I90.

Hopes for the first measurable snow of the 23-24 cool season for at least interior sections, and when will the first freeze occur at the various climate sites? Added the CPC October 19th November Outlook (click for clarity), to be verified on December 1, as we will do the same for October on November 1. Reliability for the 4 week period with 6 week notice is challenging. Let's see what happens with these monthly outlooks. Verification added on December 3... basically looks a little weak on skill.

Sunday still a decent chance for a period or two of rain per GEFS/GEPS (00z-06z/24 ensembles), but the steady EC-EPS keeps it north or extreme north edge of the NYC subforum. In the meantime, good time to garden cleanup..great week for the outdoors. 716A/24

Certainly looks like a dry start to the weekend per attached WPC 7 day qpf through 12z Sunday the 29th... I'm still not giving up on weekend rain, but odds seem to push any weekend rain threat to later Sunday, if then. Have checked ensembles through the 00z-06z/22 cycle.

Yet again?: Next weekend (28-29) from two days ago continues to shape up with a frontal boundary in the area along with low pressure and a chance of rain. Modeling variable on cold/warm rain, timing-duration?? but I think we're edging toward another period of rain sometime next weekend. No guarantee but I am looking for this occurrence.

Yet another weekend (your count consecutive) with rain (possibly chilly?), sometime Oct 28th-29th. Seems to be shaping up with a frontal boundary south of us and a wave of low pressure associated with ensemble modeled strong ridge of middle of next week being depressed by short waves crossing northern USA next weekend. Ensemble 24 hr qpf has it... weak signal right now since I think modeled confusion for what northern USA short wave might dominate in the 9-11 day period. For now, I think this is a reasonable chance... but not a guarantee. Minor wet snow accumulation risk near I90 high terrain 22nd-23rd seems to have waned but might be a better chance extreme north-northwest edge (Pocs, Catksills, Litchfield Hills) high terrain of our NYC subforum the weekend of the 28th-29th? (very few NYC subforum members). 19/636A based on 00z-06z/19 global ensembles and ops of the EC/GFS/GGEM.

Been away but I see max axis rainfall in the NYC subforum was further N than the Canadian-RGEM, and that the Canadian will have been wrong on Tue-Wed storm. Mental notes for myself. Added yesterdays two day CoCoRaHs if it wasn't previously posted.