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We'll see if the EPS trends same latitudinally or trends south the next 24 hours for the NY Day storm. For me, its getting interesting for marginal elevation snow and ice I84 as wet bulbs could cool if the 5H cools enough. fwiw...Canadian and now the EC have ice to near NYC Saturday morning the 28th. No threads on 12/28 or late 123/31, yet but monitoring (even if most folks dont care about ice).

Icing coming to I84 the 28th... it's a start to what may turn out to be an interesting NY eve. WSSI P- low prob minimal impact ice on the 28th (image) led by the RGEM (a typically warmer than USA model). EPS mean SD change has .1 to NYC NY eve. Might be a chilly rain to sleet? LONG shot. I'll watch how far se that second short wave digs across PA/MD (neg tilt) and how much low level marginally cool air is left behind on the 30th-31st.

NOHRSC snow depth this morning.

Wantage NJ. SD 10A. 3.5" solid.

Thank you for all your posts on the various threads the past 5 weeks! Glad to see CP had their first 1" snow cover Christmas since 2009. Ahead: I think caution. In my opinion, probably most disagree... I think we're going too see a lot of wintry mix Dec 29-Jan 2, which could include new snow or sleet amounts NYC before the end of the NY eve to get us to 3" in DEC. Definitely interesting on the EPS undercutting with the trough and already the Canadian with ice for the I84 corridor by the 29th-30th. Looks like a complicated evolution but blowtorch warmth in my opinion, if it lasts more than 12 hrs, lucky. I see secondaries south of LI. Merry Christmas all!

Thanks to all for participating and OKX CP for getting out the data promptly. That should put us at 2.8??? for Dec. We might get 0.2 sleet on the 28th???? Long shot. Walt

CoCoRaHs snowfalls for all who reported prior to 740AM.

Wantage NJ 1.5". snow almost over. I saw Blairstown CoCoRaHs 1"

fwiw..we have a separate obs thread for this mornings snowfall. this thread for the SD on 12/25.

Wantage NJ 0.8" at 635A. small - met sized densely filled fluff flakes. 20F SB around 515A. Snowing at a nice clip.

A burst of snow Tuesday morning will refresh area snow cover, helping many of us to a white Christmas (more than 1/2" of snow on the ground at 7AM Wednesday). There's a separate thread for the 7A Wed 12/25 snow depth. Snowfall may be impressive for short time, coating all untreated surfaces with slippery broom able fluff.

Probably starting an OBS NOW thread around 8P when I get time for a short duration- 2 hr light-met snow shower event 5A-10A and see if CP can get over the 2" mark.

Too early to be sure of this...but 28th-29th is flagging mixed and icy, significant for travel on untreated surfaces. See attachment.blue area. GFS looks like it's missing this but maybe I'm relying too much on other models. Anyways, WSSI-P has it for now. We'll see if it hold.

-4 Wantage and Frankfort Township. NJ climate page has it too.

Here's what I'm using for my forecast... the colder RGEM ECMWF... Both 6z/23 versions-ops. NWS imo, looks too light but even their amounts are good start for the refresher. -4 here for a low in Wantage. My guess is there will have to be some slower travel tomorrow morning for an hour or two in the snow squall line, and prior frozen roads. Melting NYC begins around Noon. Hopefully enough falls to hang on. Also, since this will occur after 12z, my confidence on what is measured in CP is below average. I'll be happy if they note 0.3". Am not starting a stand alone miracle thread, until I see a much better chance for 1" in CP.

Thanks for checking-filling the M data Don. Sweating out CP... I just don't know what's happening there. I think they'll need the Tue morning refresher to make it. Close call.

Miracle on Broadway? I saw a post earlier and cant find it... am considering the long shot 1.2" needed to reach 3" for Dec. What was it called? Miracle for Dec 2024? I'll make a decision on a thread at 7PM tonight. Seems like at least some media forecasters are blowing off what may happen Tuesday morning near sunrise. I can see it as squall line of briefly 1/2S and piling up an inch in 2 hours. I just need a little more model guidance and the title and then decide whether its worth it... I'm pretty sure NYC subforum members will be excited by what we see near sunrise Tuesday.

Concerned about a lot of things: Drought monitor not moving. All the warmth that's coming... as someone posted, it will be mins especially around 12/28-30... still allows ice I84. It's also looking above normal precip to me, 12/30-1/6 and maybe beyond? Agree on Tomer's post on storm potential. If I can suggest... for lr try using 850 temps for above or below normal temps instead of the 2M for these long range outlooks. 2M doesn't always transfer well from aloft. I'll be offline all day... have some fun.

flurries last night and there might be some dustings but here...cant see a dusting in this spot of Wantage NJ.

NYC - Long Island-possibly Philly: There will probably be a 1/4 to 1" of new snow between roughly 6AM and Noon Tuesday. Philly is on the southern edge so it may only be flurries. Still winter driving habits advised-plan on a little caution if you have to be out and about Tuesday morning from the previously frozen roads. I think this will assure a white Christmas morning (1/2" or more on the ground for official 1" snow depth), anywhere where there is more than an inch on the ground this morning. I might be pushing it a little and maybe we need to say 1.5" of snow on the ground this morning to assure a white Christmas but short days and generally below freezing temps should help get its there. Your snow depth reports Christmas morning after the kids (grands) are done unwrapping-celebrating.

Good morning everyone - Dec 22. A white Christmas is assured for most of us in e PA/NJ northward to Canada. Tuesday morning Midnight-Noon I78 in PA-NJ northward. A 3 hour period of snow deposits 0.5-1.5" needing road treatments for reducing slippery travel. Normal manageable winter driving habits - caution advised. Roads frozen from this weekends bitter cold. Next events: Day after Christmas (26th): e PA, northern NJ- Southeast NYS. Snow possible with 1/2-3" potential but model uncertainty whether this occurs so it's not a given yet. It may begin Christmas night? Also this could also extend to CT. I84 corridor northward 28th-30th: Periods of Ice mixed wintry possible but lots of uncertainty. Could be just rain. Maps added are the generalized NWS 5AM snow forecast that informed their early morning products. Also a map of the Blend of Models snowfall which is a good start for what should occur early Christmas Eve. AND--- if you're interested---a map of soil temps 2 inches below the surface in NYS. Interesting that its near zero on the surface, but above freezing 2" below ground.

Probably my last on Tuesday mornings event (or non if it doesn't pan out). 13z/21 Blend of Models and EPS prob of >1"

Am not following up. I will say this. This event is the way I more frequently remember in the 50s60s. Blowing drifting cold. This is a more reasonable start to winter.

Still unsure when we're going to warm above normal again. in CP..probably past 12/26...but big time... not likely til the 30th. Do we need to reassess winter in CP based on a weak or non Nina?

OK... further stats if not previously covered CP. First inch historically, correct me if I'm wrong. 12/19. I saw something else a few pages ago, but I checked XM. Again correct me. First two inches historically 12/27, presuming we exceed two today,