wdrag

Very simple thread that may not produce for most of our NYC subforum but LI and south of I80 in NJ seem threatened. Again, this may be a null event for us but am sure it will have some conversation in what is our last half of January series of wintry opportunities. At 917A added 00z/18 CMCE, 00z and 06z/18 EPS and no GEFS since it was snow free this far northwest

I agree.. am away but will consider a thread for this late today or tomorrow.

You're very welcome as all. We're going to have to see the NAM get on board... this is bothersome for me. 06z EC not as robust as I expected but nonetheless... CP west-north is in the game. Make it happen NY... I don't want 40 pages of 1/2" in CP. It's been the usual interest for tracking Lets do a better than an inch.

Good Friday morning. everyone. No new 1/21-22 thread nor a 1/24-25 thread. Uncertainties and think we have enough to look at for 1/19.

NWS ensemble probabilities issued this morning for various minimum thresholds of snow. These are pretty high for D3. I hope this works out ok. Much of eastern LI might be suppressed to an inch or so by rain and milder temps. You'll know better. Am off-line much of the next 3 days.

In case anyone was looking. No second thread from me for the 22nd, but another pretty decent short wave at the bottom of the departing polar vortex moving ne of the Great Lakes will whip through here. For now, not worth a fringe outlook but will revisit tomorrow morning. I'm more interested in the 24th which will clearly have backing flow up the east coast as the PV moves to Baffin Bay Area. Not starting a thread for that till more consensus and its 8 days away but it looks fairly juicy to me. Will recheck Friday as time allows.

No second thread for the 22nd, but just so you know another pretty decent short wave at the bottom of the departing polar vortex moving ne of the Great Lakes will whip through here. For now, not worth a fringe outlook but will revisit tomorrow morning. I'm more interested in the 24th which will clearly have backing flow up the east coast as the PV moves to Baffin Bay Area. Not starting a thread for that till more consensus and its 8 days away but it looks fairly juicy to me. Will recheck Friday as time allows.

Wantage NJ 0.2" at 7P small flake snow still in progress.

New thread delayed til 7P. Hope that’s. It a problem

Just updated thread title Discussion-OBS minor-mdt 1-7" slippery impact 7-14 hr snowstorm mainly btwn Noon Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. Heaviest axis near or just inland I95. New thread for next unknown snow amount event with a large range from fringe 1" to at least moderate 1/22-early 1/24 begins about 530PM. Our 1/19 event that the NAM is trying to find for the first time in its 18z/16 cycle is fairly well produced now by all other modeling with the axis of greatest accumulation still a bit uncertain but seems to be shaping up near or just west of I95 to possibly as far northwest as I84. I added 7" in the title because I'm pretty sure we can see a stripe of 7" but where. C park????? may see its first 4" snowfall since 1/29/22 (thanks to our XMACIS experts). There should be some pretty good banding for a few hours near or after sundown Sunday, and for now seems to locate near or west of I95. Snow ratios should be a little higher in the colder air. You have the ensembles and we'll see how this works out. Had a bottom number 1". It's possible that the Island might have some melting and also a little rain so cant promise there, but this looks to me like we'll see snow everywhere, just how much. Above freezing temps I95 corridor eastward permit melting on contact during the afternoon I95 corridor and LI but after sundown, presuming its snowing, travel conditions can deteriorate rapidly. The good news is that Monday is our Martin Luther King holiday and Inauguration Day so traffic should be less. WPC midday significant snow map attached. The post events temps should still concentrate on the January thread. I'd like to see the 18z GFS regarding the second event which has a pretty good chance of getting fringe snowfall up here 22nd-23rd. That one wont thread til about 530 PM.

Will make a decision on thread wording (probably removing doubts for Sunday evening) for 19-20 at 430P, and I see 00z/16 ECAI NOT mirroring the too fast 00z/16 EPS for the 22nd. That latter one still undecided but likely just northern fringe at worst here late 22 or 23. Beyond that on the bigger se USA threat, just not sure except WSSI-P is big on it being a large scale storm se USA up to NJ. Have a day -my last til 430

06z/16 GFS finally shifted the surface low on Sunday morning further s, allowing better overrunning and now more similar to the other modeling. I expect EC will come around. Its not over, but we're still in the game for a slippery Sunday evening.

No thread for this afternoon-night buts plan on placing your obs here... Widespread flurries, patches of snow showers. My guess is CP T-0.3", eastern LI-e CT may see 1/2-1" amounts in some places (ocean enhanced a bit). Poconos an inch or a bit more. Spotty 1/2" amounts into w NJ/se NYS. Enjoy the flakes.

Good Thursday morning, I've no changes to the thread headline this morning and our anticipations. You're all over it... until the RGEM goes away, I'm staying right with earlier thread notes. Melting on pavement Sunday afternoon, till just after sundown... then potentially very slippery. I was surprised to see the EPS so fast for the next one around Wednesday so, no headline change. Two events should give us some snow. NOTE: VERY cold Mon night-Wed which I think is being discussed in the Jan thread. I've no thoughts beyond the 24th... too many model uncertainties before that.

Suggest following the RGEM vs the prior cycle CMC to see Canadian trends. No thread title change and no split into two events til tomorrow morning, if it looks possible. I continue sure that we'll see 1-2" NYC CP Sunday afternoon evening (I definitely can be wrong) and then I think the way the 5H vortex flies north mid week, and the flow backs on the east coast that a large scale event is probably coming up the eastern USA late 22-24. Dont want to mislead so follow the models and your own expert reads-ensembles, NWS and CPC guidance etc and go from there. My next post probably tomorrow morning. The downer side: daily weekly EPS continues dry axis here 1/20-27.

Perfect Don! Thank you very much. Walt

Hi! That's wayyyyyy back even before. my last move BOX got PHI in June 2010 (HOT summer there). Hopefully it's a good life for all participants hereon.

WPC now had a 10-30% >2.5" snowfall Sunday-Sunday night... first time in a while this close to NYC. I haven't checked, but might be good to check when we had our last 4+ in NYC. I just like all this cold. If ends up 2" or less, it will fit past disappointments up here but I think we have a chance of something decent.,

All yours down there... thank you for all and you have to like your'e in the game for something the next week or two!

Thank you very much to you and Etta. The article had what I needed. Regards, Walt

Good Wednesday morning everyone, Jan 15. What I'm thinking. If the afternoon ensembles confirm, I'll spit the headline into two threads..., primary Jan 19-early 20 and then later 22-24... but that one still is undecided for me. Not a guarantee but to me this looks like a 1'- at worst 5" snow event, probably mostly Sunday afternoon-night, with a delayed ending possible Long Island/CT into midday Monday. NYC seems destined for an inch or 2 with initial melting on pavement Sunday afternoon, but becoming slippery after sundown. I84 corridor for sure an inch, and maybe as much as 4 or 5", especially CT. Much colder Monday-Tuesday. Next Wednesday-Friday Jan 22-24: a southeast USA winter storm likely with a potentially large amount of snow or ice. The northern fringe of the snow has a chance to eventually creep up to NJ-LI-NYC Thursday ish the 23rd.

Good morning mid-Atlantic, Can someone alert me (or post a reply) if anyone there has been looking at Inauguration Day weather in of course DC. In particular I'm looking for information regarding this possibly being the worst wintry Inauguration Day since 1961 (Kennedy Inaugural storm). Seems to me--(my guess only) looks like Noon temps mid 20s with wind, a colder wind chill 10-15 and inch or 2 of snow still left on the ground? If that were true, did anyone review all the inauguration days for wintry conditions? Rain doesn't bother me for my information. Snow on the ground and temps below freezing are my interest. I see nothing in the headlines from LWX, but it might be buried somewhere--I just haven't taken the time to check. Thank you, Walt

I'll carefully look at the thread tomorrow morning and see if we need to split into two events (presumptuous on my part that we get one or the other or both0, but I need to carefully review all the guidance.

Snowman, Hope it works out. fwiw... Just outside the window of the threaded second event (Noon 22nd) ... EPS conservative posi snow depth change attached. This modeling is after 18z/22 into the 23rd. Here's the EPS, probably biased by the big amount in the 12z/14 op... but it's one of the better looks of 24 hr ensemble positive snow depth change in any 12z/14 ensemble the next 10 days here in the east. We have a powerful jet overhead above 500 MB, one of the strongest on record here in the northeast yesterday. While highly unusual, I wouldn't lock out the second event from speeding up 12 hours. I dont have time to add all the high level jet graphics, but I think about this. As you say, the greater non-likelihood is that this slides out just underneath us. On the other hand, while we get a good bite of cold 5H trough around the 21st, it may be pulling NNE so fast with subsequent ridging along the east coast allowing a more northward trend of the short wave emerging in the bottom of the trough That's the hope in me. Anyway... we're still in the game. Huge shift in the Canadian 5 days out in its 12z/14 cycle. IF the EC is to go away for Sunday-Sunday night, I think we'll know with 2 or 3 cycles. I kind of now think we're getting closer to consensus.

Thread continues as is worded... one event for sure...how much CP --will stay with 1-2 there, heavier west. The 22nd-early 23rd... unsure if that will be this far nw. Will rereview tomorrow morning,