wdrag

First Trace of snow and first freeze occurred NYC-CP. Here is the basic TT/QPF evaluation for Nov excepting missing Nov 1 Pacific Northwest coast. You be the judge on the monthly outlook verification. (not stellar on both Temp and QPF).

Just added the new 30 day outlook by CPC to the p1 post and for comparison...its shifting the axis of max warmth slightly west from 2 weeks ago. Still wet se USA. Looks interesting, imo, for marginal snows eventually sagging down into our NYC subforum.

HPRCC Nov national T/qpf departures will be added here and P1 to compare against CPC Nov outlooks---reality check.

Agreed... actually glad the Conservancy stepped up.No oe wanted to make a big deal about it...but you have to start somewhere. Monitoring next Tue-Wed for first CP measurable. Long ways to go... pretty sharp short waves carving out the trot along the northeast USA coast.

Added CoCoRaHs reports from our area yesterday... not enough traces here cause many reporters probably at work. Flurries yesterday were widespread in total. For fun added the two day Old Forge area where snowmobiling is popular. 13" on the ground there this morning (snow mobile trail groomer report) with probably 15-18" powder having been deposited. Note the 30" CoCoRaHs report near Redfield... I saw an LSR of 33" nearby and finally.. the north side gradient down to Trace. Wow! I kind of agree with many posters... different than last year at this early stage. Seemingly better. Click for clarity.

So, apparently first Trace of snow is out of the way per NYC CP CLI. What's next...Brooklyn will be upbeat. So far the attached 24 hour snow depth change does not have CMCE/GEFS support for NYC but the EPS is a little bullish in comparison. For now, I am not locking into first measurable early next week but keeping an eye on this for 12/4-5.

Please correct me if I'm wrong: NYC-CP and PHL have climate summary for yesterday as Trace snow... but I. must have missed this in the obs... no SB/SE, and I see the CF6 monthly summary that shows the dailies in PHL has no T pcpn and no T snow. Still waiting for NYC. Not sure if controversy is looming on such a minor event but I might have missed something. It's possible le local observers that supplement the snowfall data had an override. Unofficially, in my mind, it would seem both cities had brief Trace flurries but I might have missed something at the ASOS. If you find it, just let us know. Thanks. More on possible first measurable in the Dec thread.

Looks like the HRRR was too heavy, the EC, RAP, RRFS decent for chances of brief measurable snow.

EWR, PVD, LGA, BWI, TTN T. Can't believe PHL didnt. DCA didnt nor BOS. Will be interested in the minor amounts in tomorrow mornings CoCoRaHs reports. Presume everyone has seen the large snowfalls Lee of LONT, Erie. Haven't seen an official JFK flurry report yet...

NYC CP did not report snow in its 1851z past wx.

Newark had a flurry. I see MPING Manhattan a couple of flurry episodes but so far ASOS nil.

3/4 mile in big flake snow shower now in Wantage NJ.

Riding this out. Snowgoose may be right about not enough downslope taken into account e of App by the HRRR, but with the instability change and wind shift 22z-02z, I think there could be one good band of snow showers to wash eased across the metro area late this afternoon or evening. No guarantee. But already you see traces up and down the I95 corridor this morning vicinity DCA-BWI-PHL-NYC-PVD metros, yet to arrive in NYC. We'll see what happens. chances where 20F spread T/TD no snow. occasional flurries Sussex County NJ since 11A. whitening of the dirt/wooden features here. Calling it T here for now. May be my last til tonight.

Quite the challenge between all dry global models and scattered dustings of the mesoscale models for NYC metro (HRRR, RAP). 20F TD/T spread will dry out the potential for a flurry. I'll just go for a flurry NYC metro. Babysitting. Not monitoring AM WX.

Also... patterns beyond 7 days... can verify fairly well... some skill, but imo only, it's how we get to that pattern. I've not checked today, so I can't be sure but a few days ago when the post started... low pressure was generally modeled to our north in all 12 hour periods except around 12/5. I think we need short waves in the southern stream to dominate in tandem with the block across northeast Canada-Davis Strait. Just my 2c... but that's what I check in ensembles. Til tomorrow.

Are not ensemble wind fields 10 days in advance more conservative because of member spread (la/lo/speed)? Ditto the same thing eastern USA in the posted graphics. I think the location is more important and in this post... really looks decent for 10 days out.

sighhh.... flurry expectation continues tomorrow beginning with scattered dusting potential as early as sunrise nw NJ-se NYS. High res models picking up on this. We'll see what happens NYC...if it's a harmless flurry at the ASOS. Should be plenty of virga for NYC-LI tomorrow at the least. fwiw: I don't see any LSR wind posted from OKX/PHI (last evenings wind) What am thinking for my friends on FB: I84 corridor-NYC-LI-northern NJ: Flurries likely Tuesday with scattered brief dustings to as much as 1/2 or even 1" on a few higher terrain roads above 600 feet. Exactly where the lake effect bands occur is uncertain but I'm pretty sure of spotty brief and minor accumulations that may cause some slippery spots, especially Poconos into the northwest third of NJ, se NYS, CT-MA. Do not be surprised if it looks a little wintry for a short time Tuesday and Tuesday night. I probably won't be back on American Weather til Tuesday. Have a good day!

00Z/27 cycle still has in and near NYC and meas into far northern NJ Tuesday. Probably a mistake, but if the HRRR still has it this extensive 00Z/28...that would be nice, at least as a modeled predictor. Reality is what counts.

Just our luck...if it does flurry...asos at CP might call it 2 min of unknown (seldom seen?) pcpn.

18z HRRR...take a look for 12z-18z Tue. Might be too far south... changes to this will occur. For snow, probably good to think baby steps and see if we can get some flurries for NYC metro Tuesday... might be virga but for now... there is a chance.

and now with the HRRR image, done while trimming outside.

Meanwhile, the 12z/26 HRRR for measurable by 12z Tue in fairly steep lapse rates where they coincide with Lee of the Lakes Boundary Layer RH greater than 50% should yield a few flurries, and in the hills---scattered dustings on roads. T/TD spread more than 20F will yield virga... so that's what I'll be looking for Tuesday as the big negative for NYC CP ASOS seeing a couple minutes of flurries.

Those 12z/25 ensembles are not yet responding with only T-1" snow LI on GEFS/EPS and nil CMC. Still, there is hope. One negative I see is repeated CFP's with low pressure probably averaging Canadian Maritimes-Southeast Canada...best hope might be the 5th... I'd like to see a lot more digging on the short wave vort max's ...they look a little too far north for me (mainly north of 40). So far the 330PM 11/25 CPC 6-10, 8-14 day not budging much on temps here...still aoa. CPC has no sig hazards in the northeast yet for Dec 2-8. Hoping for model adjustments to convince me on snow events moving south to 40N into our area between 12/5-10. I can't visualize anything beyond that---not a long ranger. More of a modelologist as someone has mentioned. I can't outguess the week 1-2 ensembles.

Wow... reaching out toward nw NJ... pretty good. We exist out here in OC and SC.... lots of commuters and Met fans.

Old news from Nov 3... one attachment caught my attention... NOT a lock for the axis of max snowfall this winter (recently modeled by a strong El Niño as AVL-DCA-BWI-PHL). In other words behavior of flow interactions, ie one-two big ones, can modify the axis more northward... Read the graphic for perceptions.