wdrag

Do we want a thread for this storm. It will snow in NYC but probably no accumulation or less than 1/2" Friday night. This storm is focusing quite a damaging punch for the Poconos/Catskills and extreme nw NJ where spotty 4" rains are possible and certainly think 2" can occur NYC by 7AM Saturday. Your call.

Anyway, maybe my first time noticing but Pivotal now has 6 hr ECMWF op forecasts and all parameters out to 360 hours since the 12z cycle yesterday. (12z/12). Maybe I'm late to notice.

Looking interesting for TC Cuba-Fl northeastward about the 20th... 00z/11 GEFS solid D9 signal.... GEPS a little bit, and EPS again lagging.

Not convinced EPS will be correct... think we in the states would like a recurve per the preponderance of track guidance... even if it shears... we can use the rain VA northward. Also, intensity guidance seems to hang up above 35 kt. Uncertainty of course, but I am monitoring future course of the decaying Rafael for the Gulf coast. At least GEFS/GFS was correct Oct 20-24 for TC development, advancing the idea of a storm down there, though 3 days too fast on the process and may have been wrong on a US mainland landfall though am not convinced we're done.

Caribbean storm coming into better focus and may have an impact here (rain or squally rain?) around Nov 11-12? A large percentage of autumn rain here I think tropical related. Looks like we'll get something here with very minor tropical RH contribution Sunday night.

Checking back I saw isolated Trace nw NJ, s CT for this supposed 0% event... which verifies 0 percent officially but I Think a 5 or 10% would have been a better indicator. of the daily risk changes. I just saw a forecast on NY TV for 0% chance of rain through Friday? Decision making must have omitted the RGEM/NAM. It's murky light rain/drizzle tomorrow night or Tuesday morning, but to say 0%?Chec

SW Caribbean is 80% prob now in 7 day, 40% in 2. N central Atlc is 50% per 8PM TWO.

Thank you for posting your numbers. We'll check in on finals this April 2025. Hopefully there is a bit of winter. 11/1/24 537A EDT.

2PM TWO 10/31/24

Less than 2 days to offer your amount. Then we can look back in April and see how we did.

A late season TC-Hurr may still yet form in the sw Caribbean, but it's not going to my posted thinking of at least a week ago, occurring prior to Election Day. MY wrong interpretation and unless something changes in. hurry, my buy in to the GEFS mid range was probably wrong for initial TC development near Halloween, as others indicated herein. Patience I'm sure but whatever it is, seems like if any se USA impact, it would be later than Nov 5, NJ-PA: 00z/29 EPS/GEFS 5H pattern is quite different toward Nov 9. We need rain up here in NJ/e PA... for now, doesn't loo like any TC related rain before the 8th. A good portion of our autumn rain up here is TC related. Not a good situation for NJ/e PA. Will keep monitoring but my confidence has dimmed a bit.

00z/24 GEPS-EPS lackluster and I'm not sure if that will hold back NHC issuance of a TWO today somewhere in the Caribbean shores between Panama and Nicaragua but a 0% 2 day, 20 or 30% D7 seems warranted to me, especially considering repeated GFS op suggestion of a big storm down there. Once a TWO issues (only my presumption based on repeated GEFS suggestion), I'm out of this Trop Forum and will briefly revisit near Nov 7 or sooner, after all is said and done, whatever the outcome. All I ask is there any evidence that EPS is a better predictor D7 than the GEFS? Posters on here have all the options very well covered the past two pages, and always all the storm invests/tracking/potentials.

Need to keep monitoring the daily changes occurring in modeling aloft across North America, the first week of November. IF (when) a TC-Hurricane gets going near Cuba--- pretty sure it will adjust the upper atmosphere far away... There's already a fair amount of spaghetti showing sharp troughing in the USA first week of Nov. Where it ends up and the amplitude? Then, whether any tropical moisture or TC gets swept up the eastern USA, or as climo above shows...east-northeast out to sea away from FL... too soon to know but am wary of GEPS/EPS not showing much. I'll need to see the GEFS continue its increasing likelihood of a TC GOM-Caribbean near or just after Halloween, and increasing number GEFS members sharpening the trough near 80-85W the first week Nov. Yesterdays CPC words were attached to the graphic posted yesterday by purduewx on this page. Those words are: Recently, the anomalous upper-level divergence (convergence) increased over the Maritime Continent (Americas and Africa). Despite destructive interference between the MJO and the emerging weak La Nina during the next week, the GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement and consistent that a moderate to strong MJO propagates eastward to the western Hemisphere. By early November, the MJO is predicted to shift east from the Americas to Africa and the Indian Ocean. Based on the strength of the MJO during the next three weeks, MJO composites for both favored tropical cyclone (TC) development and anomalous precipitation are a major prognostic tool in the weeks 2 and 3 outlook. A pair of tropical cyclones (Nadine and Oscar) formed over the Atlantic basin this past week. Nadine was a short-lived TC and Oscar rapidly became a hurricane as it tracked north of Hispaniola. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble members support a 40 to 60 percent chance of TC development across the Caribbean Sea from October 30 to November 5. Many of these ensemble members depict TC genesis occurring as early as October 29. Regardless of the exact timing, forecast confidence is high that another TC forms across the Caribbean Sea by the end of October. Model guidance is also depicting an elevated chance of a subtropical low pressure system or tropical cyclone forming at a higher latitude over the southwestern Atlantic. This would be consistent with climatology and thus a 20 to 40 percent chance is posted for this region during week-2. From November 6 to 12, a 20 to 40 percent chance of TC development is posed for the Caribbean Sea based on climatology and since the MJO is likely to maintain a favorable large-scale environment for a late season TC through at least mid-November. ---- CPC's 3PM updated D8-14is attached... this fits the concerns expressed by this group in these past two pages. So, until the westerlies prevail down to GA inside of D7 on the GEFS and it no longer argues for TC development, I keep the door open for anything happening eastern third of the USA the first week of November. Just need to be patient and if this risk shifts out to sea as climo suggests, then I'll admit it. We are in an abnormal pattern. I'll wait this out a few more days.

Barring stats presented by others here that differ, imo, the GFS is best at TC genesis. That said, the 00z/22 GEFS has a closed ridge aloft centered off the Carolinas at Halloween. You see the # of members of this 21 member ensemble with something (TC) going s of Cuba. My guess is that modeling will continue to accentuate the ridge aloft off the Carolinas with time beyond D10, and steer the potential TC west, before eventual N-NE. Beyond D10, GEFS and EPS differ (especially Nov 4-6) with the GEFS progressive westerly flow while the EPS lags and has "potential" for the trough lagging back around 85W. Climate is full of extremes... Milton-Helene combo have us in a serious short term drought here in the NY-Philly metro. Could it reverse to a very wet pattern here along the e Coast in Nov...aided by a TC? I don't anticipate a Sandy, but I do think a TC forms, and only my opinion, it seems to have FL potential and northward along the e coast, dependent on trough aloft timing. Modeling of mid-upper level troughs-ridges tends to mush out with the variant members... and often sharpens drastically from a D10-15 spaghetti outlook. Need a TC first, then let the modeling steering adjust and guide us. Worthy of monitoring.

I think the above is very well analyzed currently-future. It's all modeling but the modeling is improving it's corridors of interest beyond D5 (imo).

Agreed above... and I think the 12z/21 GEPS trends past 4 cycles is growing. EPS marginal. but imo, it's worth monitoring. My guess is NHC could begin a TWO mention around 10/23-24. Also fwiw... the TWO per the NHC naming of TC's. the TWO has been on the slow side (Milton through Oscar) ramping up probability concern once they have it in the system. Am aware of AMWX participant thinking the GEFS has a high bias on showing potential TC's (could that be mostly early season?). SST anoms still +normal except both sides of the southern FL peninsula . The light wind field mo∂eled at upper levels by the ensembles suggests to me the potential for a TC near or south of Cuba is favorable. Realizing that there are far more considerations, I leave it that. I tend to look at ballpark opportunity. Expert criteria may say no-go but for now I continue to monitor the GEFS in particular, until the GEFS loses it, if it does.

minor comment impression: looking back at least a week... I'm giving this (Nadine-Oscar) predictability to the GEFS as a win... other primary global models were imo lackluster. Looking ahead... Cuba-Bahamas-possibly an east coastal Fl threat around Oct 30-31. This time multiple model attempts.(00/20 EPS, GEPS, GEFS). Doubt this will disappear within big eastern USA ridge.

NOT October, but fwiw, the NOAA-CPC winter outlook is posted. Attached are a few changes in tools-products this cool season...as attached to their winter outlook just released today. Click for clarity.

NOAA-CPC just posted their winter outlook-official on Oct 17. Here are some of the primary attachments. What I noticed in recent trends, is they cooled it slightly in the ne USA, and also reduced the chance of above normal qpf in the Ohio Valley.

Commenting on modeling and verification: NHC verification of sustained wind fields may be biased slightly high (ONLY my opinion). That was what I was seeing when still in NWS at PHL-BOS (ret 2018)... and I think then it was in flight assessment that seemed to expand the wind field slightly. Regarding wind GUSTS for Milton: I tend to like the ECMWF and EPS (6 hr max wind gust ) seen on Pivotal Weather. These are a nice ballpark (for me) of what to expect... you can also ee the hourlies of the max gusts GFS/CMC etc. The HRRR was terribly low at 36-48 hours and I wasn't impressed with the RAP. Others may disagree, but what I like to do is remember advance notice max wind gusts (D1-5) and place my concerns in perspective with respect to different date storms, and then within the context of same event modeling. I, again my bias, but I thought the EC op for both Helene and Milton were pretty good... especially Milton picking up on DAB max wind gusts. SPC HREF did a nice job on mean and max rainfall. from 00z/9. Atached the 00z/9 48 hr MAX rainfall axis prediction, and the reality CoCoRaHs numbers (without the 18" St Pete official report). CoCoRaHs numbers are official for NWS use.

Will be interesting to see what happens late next weekend (Sunday 20th): GEFS has at least several members continue northward moving into GOM around the western ATLC ridge (noted your pgh 1 GEFS bias), whereas GEPS and EPS are comparatively benign, though EPS seems to be increasing slightly the past day of modeling. Plenty of time for GOM to recover positive SST anomaly where it cooled via Milton. Uncertainty for sure...

A couple of things bother me about data use: Poweroutage.us... not many media are aware, or I'm in error: The listing is meters without power. That equates to a larger number of people without power (the going relationship is multiple 2.5X, though may be a little high). Still, unless clarified otherwise, power outage map reflects meters out, but the number of people without power higher. I personally like the percentage of the state being without power better... in this case nearly 30% at peak outage yesterday. A lot has been made about the Number of TOR warnings issued for this event. While the data is still incomplete (storm data), I checked via IEM COW, preliminary verification 12z/9-12z/10... and give or take depending on your resources... in this 24 hour period there were 120 TOR warnings (MLB, MIA, TPA combined). My concern is only 37 verified as TOR's (so far). Again, when comparing days of TOR's and the various EF against the background historically (only the last 35 years since the 88D came into existence), we have amped up verification with better supporting documentation. I prefer tempering # of warnings (TOR's are a difficult hazard to verify) as a severity indicator and just going with the reality. No doubt it was a big day with killer storms from multiple hazards embedded within the excellent Milton tracking (cone) by NHC. I say the same thing about Extreme Wind Warnings: This is only a very recent addition (~2005) to our hazards.

From CPC yesterday (10/10/24) on the unfolding La Niña: This posted just I. case it impacts your predictions for snowfall at CP this winter, (ne USA). The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts were warmer this month, but still predict a weak La Niña. As a result of the warmer predictions and the recent weakening of equatorial trade winds, the team still favors a weak event, but has lowered the chances of La Niña. A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025 [Fig. 7].

Below sometime since about 1230Z... I didnt check the obs time specific. From MOE-Bob Hart extreme wind. KEYW: Key West, Key West Intl Arpt, FL, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KNQX: Key West, Naval Air Stn, FL, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

Manatee County FL 13000 meters without power. No storm report. Cause unknown.