wdrag
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Good Friday morning everyone, St Nicholas Day for the European background. I've attached the snowfall via CoCoRaHs for what is my second snowstorm of the season (I84 west end 11/21 (10-20" far nw NJ and Poconos) and the ne end 12/5 (a solid 4-8" n CT and interior MA). The big snows to the Lee of the Lakes all supports the unfolding weak La Niña snow north and uncertain against going over averages for I95 (this presuming all LaNina assessments will make it to weak status). Bummer for us so far in NYC. I was contemplating a thread for yesterdays miss in NYC, and again for the coming probable miss this Saturday night. The 12z HRRR and ICON make it close and it's at night but just not enough confidence to get this first measurable snowfall of the season going for all NYC climate sites and BOS itself. Will re-review tonight and Saturday morning. The article snapshot below was dated 11/25...of interest how it showed above normal snowfall interior CT/interior MA, much as it happened yesterday! How A Weak La Niña Could Affect Winter Snowfall Jonathan Erdman
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Snowfall analysis through 7AM for this overnight event... yellow starts 6". Sussex County mostly an inch or less and part of the Poconos ditto but some of northern Poconos 4". N Ct interior MA had the most. Legend will help. Click for clarity. Wantage NJ 0.6" Was thinking of a thread yesterday but I wanted to be sure CP measured. Who knows when now?.
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Wantage NJ at this elevation of 740' MSL 0.6" with 1/2" in 30 minutes ending about 545AM. 31.8F
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A couple of thoughts: As long as the ridge remains in AK, I would think cold shots can reload sewd from Canada east of the Rockies. These will probably be transient until ne Canada blocking can return after mid month (if it returns?). For me, the good news is continued ridge in AK in the ensembled modeling through 360 hours... and while there is broad western Atlc-east coast ridging - that suggests to me qpf events. The other thing I noticed, which Don used in his recent post above.. Unless I'm mistaken ECMWF weeklies update daily... I can be corrected on this. Looking back, regarding extremes... This particular week upcoming... EPS did not have a clue as to extremes until about 7-8 days out. We see ensembled broad based ridges-troughs but not the potential embedded stronger SW troughs-ridges that make the weather that will eventually develop.
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Sort of to wrap up the rainfall Nov 20-28... attached, click for clarity. Sort of hard to believe the Drought Monitor didnt improve a bit in its Nov 27 posting. Maybe in the Thu Dec 5 (corrected date) post? I can't quibble with thoughts expressed this page regarding upcoming snow threats for the NYC subforum. I kind of think the LaNina pattern - storm track roughly OH Valley-New England is on course with the two storms between the 21st-28th of November giving us an idea.
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Probably noticing a southward shift to the coming snow event for I84 (mixing with or changing to rain at times) on Thanksgiving. Glad the GFS op is finally back in the event boat... can't understand why it dropped out for a couple of days. No thread NYC forum on this one but the distant nw suburbs will see a little snow Thursday morning...probably slippery on untreated surfaces in the elevations of northern Sussex County through the Poconos--- I can see spotty 6" highest northern Poconos if the recent southward trend in the modeling is correct. At least that option has returned. Fortunately power has returned to all but 3000 customers there in ne PA. As for longer range: I know CP did not see any wet snowflakes on ASOS for 11/21-22... (NYC suburbs and parts of LI did), I think odds favor minor accumulations (mainly nighttime) for CP sometime between Nov 30-Dec 14 (at least 0.1"). It could just be from nw flow snow showers (Lake Effect snow streak) or maybe a more general snow at the beginning of a larger scale event. I'll check back tomorrow and if I can remember, I'll post CoCoRaHs 7 day qpf on Friday around 10AM. The drought monitor on Dec 3 (corrected date) should reflect more improvement above whatever is posted tomorrow-Nov 26.
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In agreement... I don't like anyone using records less than 50 years old. Records will always be subject to doubt (CP, all the metal sites and how cli sites move around). I used to publish climate records (NWS days) but I stayed away from the short POR or noted. Now that we're seemingly in warmer wetter wilder environment, I'd probably stay away from daily records unless out of season, and move to monthly or seasonal records-perspectives. Just too many words that dont mean much to most listeners (except maybe for you and I). Maybe we can do records with environmental factors considered... just the out of season norm such as warm or cold thicknesses, PW's out of range. In other words...a 565 thickness that used to be rare in October, might be a little more frequent now, permitting heavier rainfall, warmer temps.
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Note CoCoRaHs reports incomplete high terrain PA/NYS/nw NJ due to snow related comms itterruptions. Have added general obs to show the hole, plus the power outages maps as of 6A. Also added 3 day qpf maps as a general idea (CoCoRaHs) and the snow fall maps (most out of our NYCsubforum For my own experimental record... whenever a winter event has a NWS Warning near the subforum (in this case I84 corridor) I'll identify it as an event . I've called this for my own tracking SS1. If you want closer look, please click the graphics.
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I am not starting a thread, at least not yet...since again the NYC core portion of the subforum may see only rain... but for what its worth... P-WSSI for late Thanksgiving-Friday of next week. I made some comments in the graphic...just click it for clarity.
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A little early to be sure if its over, but we're looking better with two more precip events between now and November 29. Will add maps of snowfall (CoCoRaHs) and 3 day rainfall at 10AM and then next Tuesday I think the drought monitor updates... definitely has to show improvement. First 10 days of December will tend to be colder and drier than normal, blustery chill... but I suspect that one or two precip events will more clearly emerge as the days advance toward December...at least trying to keep the current months (Nov-Dec) closer to normal.
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I try to incorporate all views, media (they tend to be slow to respond-that's their editors imo and they seem more concerned about a general story) and also herein. I heard some discouraging comments way back about this event... one of them the NW flow downslope killing it. Don't think it worked. Dynamics and steep moist lapse rates within a deep anomalous closed low aloft overcame the perceived downslope effect. The other about OKX and nothing within 35 mi of NYC. I as a forecaster tend to be a little more liberal permitting options that others are more conservative on--- NWS has to be tight one message and COLLABORATIVE conservative so as not to juice the media-us. Therefore they might run a slower, whereas we can dynamically respond faster...not tied to collaboration, and of course we're not official. I prefer less absolutes on this forum... too much we don't really know. Modeling as I used it.. in essence the 12K NAM was not very good... it's 3K descendent much better as well as the HRRR and then the three big globals (GFS/EC/GGEM). NBM was not very good--- sorry---it just wasn't, nor the statistical probs of 1" snow etc... those need to be upgraded for elevations. The probabilistic (P-WSSI) driven by model inputs was OK... but not sterling in nw NJ se NYS extreme sw CT. I will still use this again and again, especially long range since its new to me. This could be the way it is all winter (elevation dependent marginal thermal profiles), especially per Don below. Don said EC long range has us a warmer or very much warmer than normal winter, plus his NAO Sept stats guide us the same way. So I suppose these next 3 weeks through Dec 14 will be our winter and we need to enjoy it. My caveat... stats are good but are made of sample differences. This winter might not behave according to the stats. I noticed the EC Long range tends to have a little 5H Troughing here in the ne USA this winter---cutting into the warm anomalies. IMO, not all is lost after Dec 14... timing-timing-timing. Also we need to realize that modeling beyond two weeks is limited and can be vastly in error. You can step up and tell me you kinda knew in advance of the 13 week drought idea, or this current cooler wintry pattern .., all more than 3 weeks in advance. Modeling will improve considerably beyond 3 weeks to help us better plan (market products etc). I just hope some of this is of value to our group.
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Power outages juSt in Sussex County NJ...shows relationship to high terrain where probably 4-8" of wet snow has accumulated on trees. I am expecting another 6" high terrain by 7PM tonight for totals 12-15" above 1200 feet elevation..., massive problem for power high terrain. valleys under 700 feet, probably less than 3-4" with mostly wet roads. EC was too mixed in its precip forecast... HRRR was excellent as well as NAM 3K from yesterday onward. Wantage NJ at 440A, this southern part at 740' MSL 0.9"
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Wow... 8.5"!! beautiful Vernon high terrain. me---this southern part of Wantage at about 740' MSL - 215AM 0.7", less slimy slush on untreated pavement. snowing steadily 33F. Last winter we didn't have our first 1/2" till the big 1 foot snow storm of Jan 6-7, 2024.
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Morris County NJ.. several reports of snow or snow mixed w rain.
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Mt Pocono 1N report of 1.3" on the ground at 7P per PHI FB and their posted storm report.
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Saw a PHI FB report from near 1500' vicinity High Point NJ..snowing there.
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Already at 530PM 1" of wet snow on the ground... and a little less on driveway at Mt Cobb, Exit 8 on I84. about 2000' elevation (Jefferson Township PA). Models are too slow in the higher elevations for snow depth CHANGE, which is what I use as a base. HRRR 3K NAM look good but am a little cautious because 12z EC nwas ot as robust as I'd like to see.---too much mixed snow sleet rain overnight in nw NJ. Temp here in Wantage at 537PM down to 37.4.
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El Patron. Good Mexican food. They should accumulate
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Been modeled by many models for two days. We’ll see what happens. Elevations good for sccum, sleet could rob 1-3” of potential snow accumulation
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Sleet rain snow mix over to accumulative snow overnight. Haven’t seen 12Z ec positive snow depth change. Have to think slippery and plow able even down to 800’. Heading home from work now. Should be getting slippery in Poconos now above 1800 feet. Nice backside band developing in radar e central pa western nj. Should be our sleet snow changer thus evening
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about .76 here in this part of Wanrage at 6A. 41.5F r/s mix in parts of e PA high terrain, Poconos west. We should in nw NJ high terrain start accumulating around 7-8P, and 1-3" high terrain by midnight... IF NOT, then my faith in modeling r/s boundaries is degraded. 06Z EC and 09z HRRR continue. am still looking for 1" Newton and 4-6" by sunrise Friday Highland Lakes/HP high terrain stretches n SC. Colder air seeping in... has to be some slippery untreated roads tonight. Will be more difficult to accum on roads tomorrow at 32F but grass/trees should add more at time of heavier rates.
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Last 3 hours max wind gusts with the lines of showers and thunderstorms moving east through NYS/PA/VA. KDKK: Dunkirk, Chautauqua County, NY, United States [55kt, 28m/s] KPIT: Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Intl Arpt, PA, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KROA: Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA, United States [51kt, 26m/s]
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I dont have much urge to start a thread for heavy rains most of our NYC subforum, then ends as a rain/drzl/barely noticeable wet snow mix. Could be more gusty than anticipated Th-Fri and I see some modeling is spotty 50-60 MPH just of LI to Cape May-Delmarva. Isolated 3-4" melted qpf tristate corner of pa/nys/nj. Still concerned about upper low redeveloping s of LI which might mean a little more action than modeled for Fri night. 12z/20 HREF looks a little cold. A n-s axis just east of AVP might be heavy damage. 12z/20 attached WSSI-P is the probability, in this case for MAJOR damage. This n/s axis has been cyclically repeating as the area to monitor for big wet snowfall and imo, heavy damage-power outages. Gusts to 30-35 MPH expected parts of that areas as well. Caution: It's where I monitor but the prob for major is below 40%. WSSI-P is something new for me this year so can't assign confidence regarding its value added. and now with the attachment WSSI-P.
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Holding off tiI.I get back home at 5PM and reevaluate... that will give modeling time to calm down. Power imo is a big problem ton consider ne PA/maybe nw NJ. No action for me... most of NYC forum a rain storm gusty winds 35-45 MPH (iso G 50) with tail end wet snow mix.
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The heavy qpf and wet snow is primarily Pocs and Cats, into nw NJ. Not really the bulk of the NYC metro. That's why I've held off. So---I dont want to over focus NYC metro on what will be mainly a rain event. An extreme storm was occurring overnight near Washington State. I tend to find extremes occur close to each other. Remember the Oxford Flood of Aug 18, then the 11 week drought Sept-now, and now multi modeling is offering spot 4" 48 hr qpf nw NJ/Pocs/Cats Tri state corner. From one extreme to another.
