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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Good Wednesday morning American Weather participants! It is Dec 20. Not starting a thread yet for Dec 27-29 which should include a soaking rain (27th) of 3/4-2", and maybe a touch of snow (29ish?). Want to see how this evolves and see if it's worth a thread. Adding some closing data to the past storm thread. Make this a good day despite the least snow extent in North America the past 20 years (nice previous post on this). We should eventually need snow sticks for the driveway, shovels for the walk and I hope snow blowers can handle the wet snow on the driveway. I put my faith in that something has to happen in the El Niño pattern once January rolls around.
  2. wdrag
    I thought Blend of Models did well once it latched onto the bigger amounts within 48 hours. Also handled wind gust very well in our area.
  3. wdrag
    Here's a few maps of climate station data and power outages as of about 945A. We'll take a look at river reality with the 4PM hydro maps. Sometimes the predictions are in error. Just follow local official advice.
  4. wdrag
    Will try and post some area maps of rainfall and max gusts but basically 4-5" Morris and Passaic counties so far with 4+ northward on the NYS side of the NJ/NY border and also 4+ near Tannersville. 230,000 meters out in the Northeast USA with 50,000+ each NYS and NJ, 75,000 CT (a state whose electric infrastructure seems vulnerable) and MA coming up 44K. 2.5 times those numbers for the people affected. Some of our normal posters may not have power and can't post. I would say, safe to say half a million people without power at 8A. Be smart this morning traveling and watch for ice tomorrow morning over the interior where residual runoff continues.
  5. wdrag
    NJ 41, 000 meters without power, NYS 26,000. other increasing. That's 67,000 there at 520AM... equivalent to about 150,000 people without power.
  6. wdrag
    Good morning... Big rains all done Noon-3PM southwest to northeast with the bulk in the books by 8AM. Already over 4" north central Morris County NJ. Flooding as experienced now (5AM) on the roads with small stream rapidly rising now and many in the interior going into minor flood as per NWS monitoring systems. A few moderates predicted. Monitor official info if you're near those streams/rivers. Wind: looks like the max near 60 MPH in our NYC subforum should have completed by 10AM, but the back side westerly wind will still be pretty strong in the 35-45 MPH mid afternoon. Catskills might see a sleet/rain mix at the tail end around 2P. The period of snow/flurries looks to be on for the Poconos-NW NJ, interior se NYS to Litchfield County between 1AM and 7AM Tuesday with untreated surfaces slippery, in part because of residual runoff iciing, and in part because of a 0.1 to 1" new very minor snowfall. Flurries could be seen elsewhere in our NYC subforum around sunrise but no accum I95. That's my best shot... will add some real time data if it looks important but might not be too much more.... stay on top of everything and post as needed.
  7. wdrag
    Max wind reports (KNOTS) in various categories past 3 hours ending 430AM, 24 hour qpf on the NJ and NYS mesonets and max wind NYS this morning (MPH)... seeing upper 50s NYC area and NJ (not posted) is in the low-mid 50s on parts of the coast... Power outages significant so far, but unexpectedly for me, interior NNJ and interior se NYS, so far.
  8. wdrag
    Of interest. Blend Of Models (19z version) seems to be doing well eastern NC shore at 00z... if it holds...max gusts per BOM for LI 60-65 MPH tomorrow morning. I havent recently studied the details of the modeling wind downward transfer-instability.
  9. wdrag
    26,000 meters without power in the Carolinas now... that's about 55,000 people. 0.21 in the part of Wantage. 1/3rd inch western SC and near 0.4 parts of the e slopes of the Catskills. Good start. Thanks for the MT Holly post on the expected flooding. I checked OKX/BOX output..similar. Seems a little conservative on moderate, iso major but they have the data and based on their input rainfall/6 hours and past rainfall antecedent. We go with NWS as a good start.
  10. wdrag
    Yes... HREF finally picking it up. Looks to me like Ensembles River response should be accurate NNJ, w Ct/W MA (Ct River etc) as well as Catskills. Those browns are 7". Always doubt til we get reality amounts, the downslope bands but we should know by sunrise tomorrow what bin the the results will be (minor, moderate or spotty major?) Definitely a concern I95 northwestward entire NYC subforum. Just have to wait.
  11. wdrag
    HRRR winds at 850 roughly 50 KT...getting gusts 40-45KT SC coast.
  12. wdrag
    Might happen that way but I think unlikely... 12z/17 SPC HREF minimum gust hits 50 MPH LI tomorrow morning near 4-5A... max afternoon is 40. Don't think this will be a backside sting jet, not enough cold air wrap but the intense low pressure might make it happen. Just think too much troughing in the Ohio Valley. However, jury out and bottom line its going to be rough near sunrise and maybe more damage mid afternoon with Pres rises-caa.
  13. wdrag
    I have checked NWS briefing pages and I dont see anything about particular basins flooding. I am presuming the NWS is keeping quiet about particular streams to the public, due to rainfall amount uncertainty. A little disconcerting for me... but maybe I over react or am making too big a deal about river flooding??? Power issues could be significant complicating factor. If power remains, then we can comfortably deal with detours but flooded basements and potential for life threatening FF in poor drainage areas will exist Monday morning and have little doubt about many small streams in flood and several mainstems too by Noonish Monday. I expect NWS briefing pages will add more detail to hydro late today or Monday morning.
  14. wdrag
    Yes... I agree with you. Dont think I'm featuring any damaging gusts of 50+ west of the Hud River. Rainfall though... if we hadn't had what we did a week ago, I would not be as concerned but we did, and tooo many models in the 4-5.5" range including e slopes of the Catskills. Not a hurricane or worst ever, but still a pretty big storm. Not sure if anyone will notice. Originally called it a nor'easter last Wed thread. By and large this I think will be predominantly easterly winds at the surface along the coast till the 3 hours prior to occlusion-cfp passage... wind going into strongest Pres falls aligned somewhere interior NJ.
  15. wdrag
    Prep it and have gas on safe standby to repower if you need it ,and of course, have it ventilated. No promises on specific locations but this seems to be a useful generator storm
  16. wdrag
    Just want to pass this on: There is no doubt in my mind about moderate to major impact for virtually all our area Monday, with power outages and moderate to major flooding of some streams lingering into Wednesday. 90-100 knots of 850MB wind over NYC-LI se New England for 3-6 hours tomorrow morning has to cause a fair amount of power outages (80 knots at 850MB in WAA is my trigger). Additionally, if your sump needs electric, better think about safe options. Safely: your gutters that might be leaf clogged, might be good to clear the dgutters-downspout ingest area now... again you are your own best safety. Can't risk a falling off a ladder or roof. The Passaic and Ct River are ensemble based (NAEFS and GEFS) qpf forecast to go into moderate or major flood stage Tue-Wed at couple of locations and many streams seem destined to go at least minor, providing the reality of 3" is realized. That is going to mean problems for those of you near these, detours etc. Again: this only occurs if 3+" falls in the basin. I continue to think spotty 5" in 18 hours by Noonish tomorrow. Follow hydro briefings from the various NWS offices and post here if you wish. My main concern is the SPC HREF has been lagging on this 3+" amount... I'd like to see this 12z run beef up to at least 3" basin. Now is the time to getable preparations done, before nightfall and before rain-drizzle becomes widespread with the damage developing toward dawn Monday. I'll be up monitoring wind reports early tomorrow and as best I can rainfall reports. Finally: the snow for Tuesday... in and out on the various models but don't count it out and early in the day. 12z/17 NAM and HRRR still have it. The 00z EC did, but lost it at 06z. Interim, especially 18z GFS cycle are not recently deemed as reliable compared to other cycles.
  17. wdrag
    Good Sunday morning everyone, It is Dec 17. This thread will also serve as observations for all the nasty weather ahead. My expectations below...probably no different than yours. Follow all NWS warnings-advisories-statements. Pockets of 5" across interior NJ/e NYS/w CT...least rain probably e LI. That will probably cause quite a few small streams to rise into minor flood Monday. Rain quits Monday afternoon. Coastal tidal flooding will be a problem at high tide Monday morning-midday. Squall gusts 50+ MPH for LI/CT/maybe coastal NJ to near Boston Monday morning along with many power outages out there-be prepared for no power from near Atlantic City to near New York City and near Hartford out to the eastern tip of Long Island and Cape Cod. In some cases---power may be out for more than a day... that is still an unknown as power outage prediction is not always accurate-too many variables involved. High wind warnings are already in effect for coastal southern New England. Tuesday morning I84 corridor northward: It turns much cooler with a 3-9 hour period of snow or mixed rain snow in the morning-early afternoon. Untreated pavements above 1000 feet should become slippery by sunrise Tuesday for only Poconos/ Sussex County NJ and Orange County NY. Valleys little or no pavement accumulation otherwise am expecting 1/2" to at most 3" of wet snow much of the I84 unpaved hilly terrain (grass). It is possible most of the high terrain accumulation in CT/MA occurs late Tuesday afternoon-evening. Many NJ/CT/LI coastal locations should see a short period of mixed snow rain but expect it will be too warm for pavement accums. Am expecting delays and cancellations, especially near the coasts Monday morning. Follow all NWS warnings and statements.
  18. wdrag
    Well, at least the front storm will occur, albeit further west than anticipated in the Wednesday morning (13th) thread issuance. Title update to hopefully more accurately reflect the expected reality. Added damaging wind gusts-squalls to the tags and general timing/wind gust restrictions. Still lots to be determined but for those who want nothing burger <3" of rain...you probably will get that if you live LI. I think best chance of 3-5" 24 hour rainfall is along and west of the eventual path of the storm probably just inland a few miles from I95. Squalls however may change your mind about value of lead time, with power outage potential anywhere near and east of NYC including CT. Of interest to me is the max gust potential in the 4A-10A Monday time frame with squalls, but the backside westerly on eastern LI maybe just as powerful in the early afternoon. Power outages always very hard to predict, predicated on sodden ground and/or wind gusts but I suspect a fair amount of those LI/CT. Should be a bit of a difficult commute. If you have to work, recommend leave early and also plan for some airline delays Monday. Snow mixed a bit with the cold frontal rain showers Tuesday morning, only sticks I84 corridor high terrain where 0.1-1" expected. Please note late Wed-Friday (20-22) morning for LI/CT eastward... There will be another ocean storm developing Wed-Thu that could graze LI/CT with a little snow-rain. Models are temporarily going back to that, but timing is beyond the fairly powerful event coming up Monday morning and not the primary reason for this thread. Thanks for your patience with this. 618 AM/16
  19. wdrag
    After reviewing guidance tomorrow morning, around 8A, I'll probably adjust one tag adding damaging wind. Sort of waiting on NWS commitment.
  20. wdrag
    BOM is LI/CT only with 60 MPH gusts 12z Monday. Will attempt a decent consensus update tomorrow morning 8AM, but I think you all are on top of it with your posts. Regarding snow. Depends if the CLOSED LOW at 5H can' maintain south of I80 Tuesday..if so, then inverted backwards trough from near ACK sfc low, FGEN and teep moist unstable lapse rate will produce some interesting grass accum. Too early about 5H. Odds are it will open to our north... but... jury still out.
  21. wdrag
    Record for CP on Monday the 18th. 63-1984. Did not check any others but think near record warmth possible midday before chilling in the evening,
  22. wdrag
    There will be substantial impacts in parts of our area. Wet ground...gusts 40-50 trees slop over. Power outages again, this time I think more in NJ/CT/MA than back ion NYS/ne PA. Flooding rainfall for parts of the area. So unless the track slides west through PA, there will be plenty to observe Sunday-Monday. Not sure if anyone saw the EC 90 hours 525 5H low in Ohio. Swift changes ahead for Tuesday morning. In my mind,no doubt an active 3 days (Sun night-Tuesday).
  23. wdrag
    Back to this two event system: Modeling seen through 06z/15. Looks like a narrow stripe of 4.5", 24 hour rainfall, along just west of the eventual track of the near STS (wherever that track ends up) mentioned in the post above..with amounts maybe near 1" in 50 MPH squalls eastern LI to 1.5-3" remainder of the NYC subforum. Ensembles (GEFS/NAEFS) seem to have as many streams into minor flood as last Sunday-Monday and a couple moderate (actual rain will determine). Monday morning Impact could be larger due than last week, since it dumps in a shorter time frame, IFFFF the rainfall mentioned above occurs Track looks fairly solid within 60 miles either side of NJ/Hud Valley. For now max rainfall axis somewhere near I95 VA-NJ, to adjust in future modeling. TT briefly near 50 Monday morning so isolated thunder possible. This is a negative tilt shortwave rolling newd from GMEX on this one. Note sure of records for Monday but 60s NYC? Regarding the second event: I am pretty sure I84 corridor will see some wet snow Tuesday morning-midday, and a rain-wet snow mix to the coast (no stick on coastal pavement). It's far into the future but when we toss all this Monday morning RH/warmth back into the Appalachians and then sharpen the 5h trough quite noticeably into PA by Tuesday morning, I have to think there will be a band of FGEN with deep unstable moist soundings to 600 MB crossing the region Tuesday, offering a 3-9 hour period of generated precip. Amounts probably under 1/3rd inch. Not impossible to see spotty 2-5" snow fall Poconos/Catskills/Adirondacks/Berks/Litchfield Hills with pavement treatments needed above 1000 feet. Even nw NJ hills to MA Worcester Hills could see a slight grass accumulation. Just too early to be confident except I am expecting a little snow in those areas-accums debatable and best to think less than 1" for now. Just too much leftover moisture in my opinion to not are wring it out as it turns colder. If the 5H trough doesn't sharpen (neutral 5H tilt as cyclically modeled) by the EPS and GEFS, then this second event won't happen. So for now, one event at a time. This first one I think will result in flood hazards (inland) and coastal flood (partly because of e-se inflow ahead of the trough, and partly because of lowered pressure (990 MB)... both probably minor but not impossible for spotty moderate. Timing and inflow determined.
  24. wdrag
    Storm #1: added the 07z/14 NWS Blend of Models through 7PM Monday... a decent start at this long lead time.
  25. wdrag
    Well, I sure hope the EPS change to stronger and slower this 00z/14 c cycle is correct. If so, we're in business Tue-Wed-Thu. Before that... Monday morning should be a little rough with wind gust 40, coastal flooding (minor?), a significant 6-12 hour dump if 1-3" which I think would produce some flooding, certainly impact early morning travel.
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