wdrag

Good Wednesday morning everyone-Dec 18. I84 corridor winter featured through Christmas Day Entire I84 Corridor Friday-Saturday: Periods of light snow likely with 1/2-3", especially elevations. If it snows during the midday hours Friday, there would probably be pavement melting in the valleys. A different slippery story if it occurs Friday night-Saturday morning. Just a little too early for me to be sure but I think pavement treatments will.be needed for northern NJ/eastern PA se NYS Friday night and prepare for possible slower travel. The coldest air of the season, so far, will invade here by Sunday and Monday the 22nd-23rd with wind chill zero to 10 below Sunday morning.. If you have travel plans Friday-Saturday, still worthy of monitoring. I95 corridor from Baltimore to Philly and NYC Friday night-Saturday morning: Probably minor travel impact at worst but a good chance that you'll see your first slight measurable snow of the season... if it occurs, probably less than 1", enough to make spirits brighter. Just checking the 06z EC before starting a thread. Christmas Day I84 and Old Forge NY: Chance for a period of mixed wintry precipitation. deleted reference to OF (I think I got em all.). 735A

Probably starting a thread around 730AM for the possible first measurable of the season for CP and PHL too. At least snowman sees it. Agree with others on Xmas. Need another look. Saw the ECMWF updated long range. It's not far from normal temps Dec 23-30.

I saw the NAEFS and CPC prediction. Lots of things can mess this up. FOG-Stratus after the Christmas Day event. We might not get 60+ til we see a strong storm northeast into the Great Lakes which might not be til the 29th-30th? We've got snow risks Friday into early Sat, and also Christmas Day. After that? I may get a CP thread going tomorrow if trends continue to favor an event. Seems to me 1/2-3" Poconos across NJ w LI and also eastern MA RI. WSSI-P attached. Low probs for an advisory event (my interp)... this is a conservative product. LI and s NJ least chance of meaningful snow (daytime temps above 32F part of the issue)

To be sure but ... above normal dos not mean record. Potential exists for 1 or 2 days. Think we need to think backdoors in the northeast USA. Torch should be central USA before all this ridging shifts N to Canada and we start cooling in the USA with uncutting short waves near or s of 40N. . Shortest days of the year.

No thread (for now) on possible first measurable snowfall NYC-PHL Friday-Saturday morning. Plenty of uncertainty including Friday daytime temps=melting , if it does snow. Worthy of monitoring for what for us might be a minor event? ICON lost it. Once the CMC drops it, then I do too. WSSI-P attached snowing the potential area for minor impact snowfall...all low probs in a 24 hour period ending 18z Saturday.

Decided to post more clearly I84 corridor considerations that I send to a FB group earlier in the day. Less uncertainty what I'm thinking-ball parking. All ensembles have snow for us Fri-Sat. How much we dont know. Also ensemble 24 hr qpf has something going for us on Christmas Day but if its rain-ice-snow? I84 corridor Wednesday night-early Thursday. Rain changes to wet snow on I84 northward with several inches possible NORTHERN Poconos, northern Orange County across the Northwest Hills of CT and much of the western and northern Massachusetts. Meanwhile southern Poconos from Mt Cobb south into nw NJ and Orange County of NYS, as well as Hartford-Ashford... mostly rain, may end as a trace to 1/2" snow early Thursday morning? The accumulation edge is uncertain so this may change as we move closer to Wednesday. I84 Corridor Friday-Saturday: Periods of snow likely with 1/2-3" Poconos-se NYS-nw NJ and Old Forge NY, while the range of snowfall potential increases in CT-MA to between 1-6" in association with coastal low pressure development. FAR too early to be sure what happens except that the coldest air of the season so far should invade here Sunday and Monday the 22nd-23rd , with possible wind chill values down to 10 below, except 20 below Old Forge. Christmas Day: Small chance for a period of mixed wintry precip.

snowfall last night... CoCoRaHs. D yes not include multiple near 3" reports central SC in nw NJ. Good enough for me to say 2-4" of snow was widespread along and n of I80 in ne PA, nwNJ--se NYS titrating down to 1-3" w Ct.

In comparison to the elevations above 1000 feet listed a one here in Sussex County NJ, little Old Wantage at 740'MSL 7.5" for the season. We didnt have have over 7" last winter until.... Jan 6-7 of this year! I'll take it, plus for us here in nw NJ...temps down to 12F a couple mornings ago, WITHOUT snow cover. We're off to a good start. More good start coming including but not limited to 12/20-21 snow (whatever it is), 12/22-23 coldest pf the season so far. and 12/25 (signs of a short wave undercutting the ridge similar to what happened this past night) permitting snow/ice here. I'll add a CoCoRaHs snowfall map around 915A. Gotta shovel now. 32.4 in this part of Wantage.

06z EPS increasing snowfall since the prior two runs for the 24hr period ending 12z/Saturday. Doesn't mean its going to happen but continues to near watching despite minuscule 06z/16 op.

Wantage NJ (this part 3.4" final but I've seen northern Wantage 4.1. My season total 7.5. I'll take it. This is actually a halfway decent start to winter out here.

Wantage NJ 8s High Point about 0.8" snow in 1 hr ending 5A. 3.4" so far though settling snow depth 3.2. 31F. still snowing a bit at 5A. Frankford Township DPW 3.5" at 4A, also Sussex County NJ. GEFS was TERRIBLE for this current event. CMCE and EPS much better. Regarding Fri-Sat of this coming weekend... am pretty sure of a light snowfall and maybe stick for first measurable NYC. Can't quite yet start a thread. I want to get to 96 Hours with same scenario but probabilistic has been showing the potential for several cycles. See attached graphics from 09z this morning. Will go with CMCE and EPS for the coming weekend. I foresee a bit of snow with entire I84 corridor Fri-Saturday followed by possible wind chill advisories either Sat night or Sunday night for much of I84 northward with as previously mentioned, the coldest air of the season so far. WSSI-P graphics attached. Pocket of light blue near NYC is risk of a moderate event. The more extensive graphic is the still low probability for a widespread minor impact event, with the lighter blue hues in MA-NYS higher probability. Lets see what evolves but I am not dismissive. No further comment from me on this til tomorrow morning.

Wantage NJ 8 s of high Point... 2.6" at 4A. 31.1F no wind

SB in Wantage NJ around 730P.. 30.0/23. No obs thread from me since not a big deal for NYC but it will be slippery untreated pavements overnight not too far w-n of of NYC-frozen ground.

uh oh? allow this short wave to dig and sharpen. Still time. lots of changes coming... ICON and Probabilistic WSSI-P also leaning for a minor NYC event event 20-21st. We'll see if it holds or goes away. For now in play as a small possibility. Mostly favors I90 north in NYS-MA.

Noting weeklies recent trend showing cooling east coast through the end of the month and also seeing 5H blocking developing eastern Canada. Greenland is not the only places where blocking is more favorable for us. Added the 09z/ WSSI P for a moderate wintry impact event around 12/20-21. Probably related to yesterdays EC OP, and I'll expect this to fade but not sure it will. It is a very low prob but developing high amplitude trough does offer the small opportunity.

Thanks Matt, never really sure where all the NY Subforum posters are located... I tend to start at I78 north.. but understand south of I78 as you pointed out in the stats. I am concerned the drought monitor is not nearly responsive enough (flashy trends both ways).

Nov 20-Dec 12...CoCoRaHs rainfall looks like general 5-6.5" over the area in 3 weeks... that to me is easing the drought. Also...am pretty sure of a wintry hazard I80 northward in NJ into se NYS early Monday..light snow and ice...minor hazard but prior frozen ground assists with temps still near freezing at 7A Monday the 16th.

I84 don't look too far ahead. Probabilistic hazard for this Sun night... (EC 1-2"). Relatively consistent EC-GGEMlast several runs. NYC- no luck yet. Lets take the rain that comes Mon-Tue.

Following up: I know the 4-5" amounts occurred RI per the attached CoCoRaHs reports (east of CT-LI) and the wind was about 10 knot less than generally modeled for our area with the conservative HRRR and SPEC HREF MIN gust best found in the fire weather section. EC far too far west on big gusts. If interested,here are the CoCoRaHs rainfall reports (click for clarity). Poconos also topped off with about 1/2" snow as far as the 3 CoCoRaHs reports indicate at 8A today.

Stoneybrook NYS Mesonet on LI about to cross 1". (0.99)

Headline basically good: Already as of 4AM spotty 1/2-3/4" amounts NNJ and near NYC. The 4" if it occurs probably CT or LI My only addition is for those who like snow. A short period of 1/2-2" hazardous snow will follow for the Poconos near or just after sundown today-ending at midnight.Maybe a slightest covering of 1/2" snow high terrain (above 1000 feet) of nw NJ/se NYS/nw CT Hills occuring sometime beteen 7PM-midnight. Warm ground and rainfall today may prevent much road accumulation except am pretty sure it will become hazardous in the Poconos...especially Mt Pocono-Mt Cobb(exit 8 on I84) westward and northward between 7PM and midnight.

00z/11 HRRR teasers. (4"+ axis in yellow?) and late afternoon squall-line developing--certainly a wind shift via 21z image.

Hi everyone... this may be OLD news... but mPing--what I consider an important up the minute crowdsourcing ground truth observation platform is out of service for a while longer. A major power failure Saturday night rendered this lower priority program, a delayed return to service Unsure when it returns but I do appreciate NSSL letting us know. Storm looks on track per the mid and day shift NWS office updates and multiple model guidance through 18z/10. Poconos might have a small snow hazard at the end as temps plummet to freezing at sunset Wednesday. Walt

Good Tuesday morning Dec 10 to everyone... I'm hoping patience works for winter snow - NYC metro. In the meantime, a fairly high impact storm is likely with potential for a squall line forming NJ coast into w CT during Wednesday afternoon contributing to downward transfer of some of the 80KT Southwest Jet. OKX already has High Wind Watch for the primary damaging wind threat area. I've added a few starter graphics-click for clarity. Includes base maps of NWS rainfall, wind gusts and also somewhat differing opinions of the Excessive rain potential from the 00z/10 guidance. One personal note of concern: Drought monitor and excessive rainfall potential don't seem to be a coherent match but I haven't checked everything regarding the monitor. 8A/10

I'm in agreement on EPS weeklies etc... grain of salt at best. Our long range models just can't pick up on the extremes that occur week 3 and beyond and they're not outstanding week two. Example of EPS large shifts below for temps the period Dec 9-16. NAEFS closes it out from Dec 2... with a much better solution--OVERALL near normal where the EPS has chilled greatly compared to Dec 3. Wish it were true that our modeling can reveal the abnormal departures beyond week 2... I dont think so.