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NYC - Long Island-possibly Philly: There will probably be a 1/4 to 1" of new snow between roughly 6AM and Noon Tuesday. Philly is on the southern edge so it may only be flurries. Still winter driving habits advised-plan on a little caution if you have to be out and about Tuesday morning from the previously frozen roads. I think this will assure a white Christmas morning (1/2" or more on the ground for official 1" snow depth), anywhere where there is more than an inch on the ground this morning. I might be pushing it a little and maybe we need to say 1.5" of snow on the ground this morning to assure a white Christmas but short days and generally below freezing temps should help get its there. Your snow depth reports Christmas morning after the kids (grands) are done unwrapping-celebrating.

Good morning everyone - Dec 22. A white Christmas is assured for most of us in e PA/NJ northward to Canada. Tuesday morning Midnight-Noon I78 in PA-NJ northward. A 3 hour period of snow deposits 0.5-1.5" needing road treatments for reducing slippery travel. Normal manageable winter driving habits - caution advised. Roads frozen from this weekends bitter cold. Next events: Day after Christmas (26th): e PA, northern NJ- Southeast NYS. Snow possible with 1/2-3" potential but model uncertainty whether this occurs so it's not a given yet. It may begin Christmas night? Also this could also extend to CT. I84 corridor northward 28th-30th: Periods of Ice mixed wintry possible but lots of uncertainty. Could be just rain. Maps added are the generalized NWS 5AM snow forecast that informed their early morning products. Also a map of the Blend of Models snowfall which is a good start for what should occur early Christmas Eve. AND--- if you're interested---a map of soil temps 2 inches below the surface in NYS. Interesting that its near zero on the surface, but above freezing 2" below ground.

Probably my last on Tuesday mornings event (or non if it doesn't pan out). 13z/21 Blend of Models and EPS prob of >1"

Am not following up. I will say this. This event is the way I more frequently remember in the 50s60s. Blowing drifting cold. This is a more reasonable start to winter.

Still unsure when we're going to warm above normal again. in CP..probably past 12/26...but big time... not likely til the 30th. Do we need to reassess winter in CP based on a weak or non Nina?

OK... further stats if not previously covered CP. First inch historically, correct me if I'm wrong. 12/19. I saw something else a few pages ago, but I checked XM. Again correct me. First two inches historically 12/27, presuming we exceed two today,

So, I'd like to go back to start of this thread and point out something. The Blend of Models-top graphic was pretty accurate and depicting the primary threat region for biggest snow... see blue hues. It was two times as much in reality. Also STATS based off a NWS forecast suites, were HUGELY in error... imo... BUT.... we found back in the 2015-18 time frame that the MAX AMOUNT probably was often exceeded. So we don't budget enough info for the high end... I presume CP will end up with 2+ today...

Hard to believe no report as of 750A... but at least we have 2.2 Newark and 2.0 LGA so far per OKX LSR.

The chance for a white Christmas in CP NYC looks like a legit possibility as well as most surrounding environs w LI, sw CT, NNJ.se NYS ne PA. am expecting dusting of snow Tuesday morning around sunrise. That should help.

Looking for the official CP report...is there one? I saw the 2" of snow on the ground at KEWR.

Just waking up to a solid 4.4" event this part of Wantage NJ, fine flake snow in progress.

Wantage-this southern lower part.. 0.5" 29F

you'll double or triple what you have now, by 6AM Saturday.

Hi! Thought it might be interesting to check-speculate on a white Christmas (since I didnt see the topic earlier). Been watching the EC SNOW DEPTH guidance. I Another uncertain minor 2-6 hour snow event possible between 6A-Noon Tuesday the 24th, that should leave fairly large chunk of our area to qualify as 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning (rounding 1/2" up). Temps in the interior will be at or below freezing by sundown today and continue possibly through 10AM Christmas Day. So where we exceed an inch today, we have a chance of 1/2" or more on the ground Christmas morning. Attached the op 12z/20 ECMWF attempt to predict snow depth. Grey is about 1/2". XMACIS 12/25 CP amounts attached. I checked EWR which also dates back to 2009 when they 4 on the ground in the morning. . Last time CP moe than 1/2" on the ground on Christmas Day...2009. Probably not going to happen but it might. Depends on tonight and Tuesday morning.

Wantage NJ 0.2" as of 1215P 29F. Roads wet, some driveway-sidewalk pavement snow covered.

no insights right now... bottom line... not sure what drives raw NWS snow forecasts, but the NBM I thought was supposed to be a first cut for the forecasters database? Any NWS forecaster comment? One thing I do know... to respond to model trends, you've got to be nimble or you'll probably be in error--- though NOT always. Takes ALOT of concentrated effort within 2 hours of issuance time (330A/330P). If you're committed to available data at midnight-noon, your briefings at 5A/5P could be missing something important? Again not always.

Something in terms of snow will happen. we're not going to go into the Saturday night arctic airmass without an event

Euro pretty weak compared to the 00z/GFS/CMC models. As you know I like Canadian models when they're stable from run to run.

Noon Christmas Eve (24th) - Noon Christmas Day I84 corridor: Looks to me like periods of snow and possibly sleet along and north of I80 in PA-NJ to at least I90 NYS-MA. Just too uncertain but several more inches of snow could accumulate by the time Santa has accomplished the mission Christmas morning. Even NYC might get a little snow. The does not take into account the 06z/19 EC OP which might say no way?

Good Thursday morning... as others have mentioned,,similar to yesterday. Good Thursday morning everyone-Dec 19. Similar to yesterday's post. A white Christmas is likely for a few spots in the immediate NYC metro (What do you want to use for immadiate = 10 miles??) from probably two minor events for NYC. I95 corridor from Baltimore to Philly and NYC tomorrow night-Saturday morning: Probably minor travel impact at worst but a good chance that you'll see your first slight measurable snow of the season... if it occurs, probably less than 1", enough to make spirits brighter and possible slippery pavements Saturday morning. Maps added are up through 4AM. The NWS model blender snow amount forecast for our area and also a statistical probability of more than 1" of snow and the NWS snowfall forecast before their 4AM issuance. I did add statistical probabilities for Central Park NY which are MUCH lower than what will happen along the NYS-NJ border.

Good Thursday morning everyone-Dec 19. Similar to yesterday's post. A white Christmas is on the way for portions of the I84 corridor from probably two minor events. Each could have a moderate travel impact, but where that is-yet to be determined. Entire I84 Corridor tomorrow-Saturday MIAINLY 11AM-11AM-a 24 hour period: Occasional light snow likely with 1/2-3", especially elevations. If it snows during the midday hours tomorrow, there probably will be pavement melting in the valleys. A different slippery story when it occurs Friday night-Saturday morning. I think pavement treatments will.be needed for northern NJ/eastern PA se NYS, especially Friday night into Saturday morning. Prepare for possible slower travel. If you have travel plans Friday-Saturday, still worthy of monitoring. THIS IS A CHANGE: Noon Christmas Eve (24th) - Noon Christmas Day I84 corridor: Looks to me like periods of snow and possibly sleet along and north of I80 in PA-NJ to at least I90 NYS-MA. Just too uncertain but several more inches of snow could accumulate by the time Santa has accomplished the mission Christmas morning. Even NYC might get a little snow. Maps added are up through 4AM. The NWS model blender snow amount forecast for our area and also a statistical probability of more than 1" of snow and the NWS snowfall forecast before their 4AM issuance. I did add statistical probabilities for Central Park NY which are MUCH lower than what will happen along the NYS-NJ border and eastern Massachusetts.

No guarantees on what will happen. Modeling showa a pair of closely following short waves diving southeast toward the mid Atlantic coast, sharpening the mid level trough. While too far offshore for a 4+" event, the 850 MB weak warm advection, 850MB vorticity from s central NYS sewd to NNJ and under running boundary layer northerly flow is going to produce a little bit of snow. For CP, think it needs to measure after sundown Fri. Outskirts of NYC from NNJ-se NYS-sw CT across LI should see 1/4" to maybe as much as 2", with potential for 3" near the NYS-PA nw NJ border. 4AM NWS has not posted any snowfall for NYC, so the probability (attached) for 0.1" in CP is very low (26%). Added 08z WSSI-P graphic and the NWS 08z/18 Blend of Models. If the system ends up weaker and not sharpening, then this modeled event fritters (850 vort trough just becomes general northerly CAA flow instead of what is modeled now). Should the miD level trough sharpen a bit more then that boosts confidence for NYC metro spirits brightened by snow on the ground Saturday morning. If PHL measures, that would be their first of the year. BOS already has measured. Reserving comment for Christmas possibilities to the general Dec thread for now, will we get through 12z Sat. Click graphics for clarity.805A Added OBS to the title at 748A/20 and one updated prob graphic for NYC CP

Also on lack of threads. I try to focus on the more important ones. Obviously snow brightens most of our lives. Trying to reduce MEH takes on events. So for many this coming event (or non depending where you live) may be a MEH. Tracking in one thread coming soon. I'd love to add Christmas event snowfall too but will reserve for potential separate thread after we get through daybreak Sat with whatever.

Prepping minor thread for first measurable of the season CP Fri night. Should be up by 8A. NO GUARANTEE on 0.1-1" CP.

My mistake... I present a daily FB post to members and Old Forge is part of that group. MY MISTAKE on deleting references to OF.