wdrag

Posting the 06z/7 analysis by OPC. Note DELTA near the Yucatan. Now the 00z/27 (10 day outlook) of the GEFS members and a few down near the lower left (Yucatan). Many members with tropical too close to FL. Still this is not a bad outlook for potential. I did not include the EFS members-wasn't thinking about the EPS at that time.

Prior modeling steep lapse rates momentum transfer prompts on the forum, the wind advisory issuance by OKX for LI/se NYS/CT, the marginal risk for SVR by SPC skirting the northern fringe of the forum, all are contributing to this topic. CAA aloft steepens lapse rates this afternoon as intensifying low pressure crosses northern Maine this evening. Winds at 850 MB will be 40 to possibly 50 knot and so there is a chance to latch onto some of the 40 knot gusts. Best chance for spotty gusts 46 MPH or greater appears to be se NYS, CT, e LI. Appears to me most of the wind gusts will be 40-45 MPH but gusts 50-60 MPH are possible, especially e LI. Gust algorithms from the 00z/7 cycle EC, and SPC HREF are generally a bit weaker than the early morning HRRR, tho SPC HREF MAX gusts do offer the potential. Evaporating sewd moving showers may add to the transfer. 657A/7

Good Wednesday morning everyone, No DELTA post yet... Modeling differs quite a bit still with the EC and it's EPS unwilling to join NAEFS/GEFS. I think it will begin showering here late Saturday or definitely Sunday (FGEN with a cold front and DELTA moisture leak northeastward well ahead) with a cool rainy Monday, BUT modeling is not agreement and therefore I'm not quite willing to express enough confidence for a DELTA remnant post tropical TOPIC 2"+ rainfall, Gust 35 Knot event here late Sunday-Monday. In the meantime, I'll start a post for the wind advisory 1P-10P. Am not quite as gong ho as I'd like to be. LI-CT/SE NYS have best chance for scattered 46+ MPH gusts. I think the max G might make 60 MPH vicinity e LI but not likely. More in the topic. Thanks for the previous prompts on this topic.

Delta: On the verge of making this a topic here but want to wait 24 hours more to see if the EPS/GEFS show more se 850MB flow across LI. For now, will add a few graphics to show the likelihood of at least some needed rain here, with, on the low end probability a decent nor'easter, provided DELTA's remnant low passes across s NJ and the attempted modeling of a decent surface high to our north, occurs. Being this is 6-7 days in the future I wouldn't plan on this occurring as ensembled but low chance exists for 2+" rainfall and gale gusts LI. IF the ensembles appear more definitive Wednesday morning (00z/7 cycle), I'll get this going. NAEFS 24 hr mean qpf ending 00z, Sun, Mon, Tue, NAEFS mean pattern for 00z/Mon, NAEFS low chance of 2+ inches of rain here (~25%) between 00z/Sun-00z/Tue, NAEFS probability of 30MPH wind which is ~50% for our mariner water, a family high chance-driven by the high to the north I presume. The GEFS and EPS qpf and then you can see the last chart which is WPC's forecast, sides with the drier EPS.

fwiw on DELTA: Despite op runs of GGEM/GFS swapping path, the GFS now further N than the GGEM...the 12z/5 NAEFS is wetter... and coming fast, Sunday ish. Here's the 12z/5 NAEFS mean qpf and color coded qpf variability. If you compare to yesterdays post, it's north and offers a chance of only 0.4"+ here in the NYC forum... looking like a fast mover. It's early and if the wind doesn't play up gale gusts, and qpf is under 2", I probably won't add it as a topic, unless NYC forum members consensus thinks it worthy. Still early... 5-6 days away. Will check again Tue and Wed. Have a good night. Walt

Regarding DELTA's naming and future: No change from yesterdays post on this...NAEFS is solid on its path. Suggestions for us, that it could be a rainfall miss just to the south of the NYC forum but sooo far distant that options for a further north expansion of it's moisture are still on the table. NCAR RAL checks of last ensemble EPS/GEFS paths confirm.

No topic at this time. DELTA (??), if it forms-develops, has a chance for the central Gulf Coast, and eventually ne turn that could impact us late next weekend. We'll see if the models trend further north than this highly uncertain-low confidence northern edge grazing on the tail end of the decent CAA push of late 8th-9th.

Wantage NJ 0.11 330A-now.

ECMWF: In case you didn't see this... All the standard ECMWF web charts will become freely available on the ECMWF web site from 7th October

Wantage NJ 0.06 so far since 330A.

Yesterday, the 12z/30 UK was offshore of CC with the 10/5 coastal. Today, more models are light on qpf for Monday and less organized... and that's what I'm going with for my own expectation. Models are good at broad indications but difficult to be detailed accurate on D5. Best to blend. Am watching ICON model more closely but unless someone on this forum knows differently, it's just another consideration with no advantage beyond the GFS/EC/GGEM blend.

Good morning all, It is Oct 1... My interp of the NAEFS indicators from a week ago (Sep 23-24), were too cool here for the first week of October. Now, looks rather ordinary for the first week... near normal or at times cooler than normal. The period of the 7th-11th might be a bit more interesting pending eventual short waves diving into the Northeast-Maritimes with the associated low pressure system and subsequent cool air delivery. It's in this time frame that it might briefly turn a bit colder than the first week and a bit of snow is still indicated for the Adirondacks by GEFS/EPS ~ the 9th. . Climatologically, seems as if nothing extra-ordinary is in the offing for at least a week.

I'll use this post as my final summary for this event, possibly adding/delete maps later today based on late arriving reports. The graphic is the CoCoRAHS D1 summary. Not in there is the 4.2" amount in Mercer County (Ewing area near Trenton NJ), in the sw corner of our forum. I saw flooded road references on NBC4 ~6A this morning and am pretty sure there has to be damage reports (non-thunderstorm) that I haven't yet seen posted. No matter, this event was decent (am aware of pittance rainfall NJ coast and eastern LI) with the bulk of the forum experiencing heavy rain NJ-se NYS/w CT; or wind gusts 45-55 MPH vicinity NYC eastward. And this from only 1 storm. This link is PHI's PNS for rainfall. 1032A/30 https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi At 1037A, add PHI tweet analysis of the PNS rainfall. I like the narrow 3-4" slots. At 350PM, added this PNS from OKX... has some pretty decent winds. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Updated CoCoRAHS 1 day graphic. Will update again later. Suspect there is more wind damage out there on LI than announced so far. Also, many reports of G40kt or greater e of I95 early today per datascope-weatherflow. I'll be interested in all reports our NYC forum of 3+". In my opinion the models generally focused NYC-NJ-Hud Valley on 1.5"+ as we drew closer to the event and I felt they handled handled the potential for damaging gusts quite well. The expected NJ coast development after 11P last night ended up further West and became much narrower crossing the eastern part of the forum at dawn. Still, considering only 30 hours of rain at most, many cases less than 8 hours...these amounts are pretty good With spotty 4+ Berskhires and near PHL (n and s of forum). I did not check WU two day reports... E LI your time will come...will try to comment more on projected max qpf axis in the future. I'll update just before Noon on rainfall and wind. Thanks for your comments (-/+) 747A/310

Adding some power outage data as of about 630AM. Definitely had some damaging wind (spotty i presume per very recent Wantagh post).

Wantage NJ 1.34" so far. DIX radar axis 2-3" amounts looks as best axis. Suspect it's running low. Many G 40-48 kt NJ coast into se NYS Hud River area eastward since midnight. Here is a very early CoCoRAHS map of reports since about 8AM yesterday. No FFW/SVR issuances..

NJ totals today per Rutgers Climate site through 754PM. Many higher numbers sampled by WX Underground.

PWAT will increase during the night through 2 am. I think even at 6AM there will be a trailing band of moderate showers n-s vicinity of NYC after the primary band has scooted off to eastern new England. The trailer with the 850MB front.

Think DIX STP/OHP more accurate than OKX/DOX... OKX started about 5 hours later. Definitely 2-2.75" reports just e of PHL...amny 1" reports TTN area and 1/2-1" NNJ.

Bunch of wind damage reports central NC now, also 1.-2" of rain on the Rutgers climate site near PHL into sw NJ so far today.

Starting to show hailers in that frontal line...small. so far only 1 damage report upstream as of 520P.

This looks like the exact WPC issuance for the period after 8PM tonight. Their Excessive risk has expanded. We're only at the beginning. If all goes to the modeling, their should be quite an increase around 11P-midnight NJ coast spreading rapidly newd. Never ever SURE til it gets going but it seems to me the SVR's in NC now could be the start. Check back around 8P to see what is happening along the mid Atlantic coast.

Here's some more amounts now in NNJ... .4 to 1.1" so far today. looks like a lot more coming by 00z/30. 457P/29 (added the correct map at 459P/29

414P: The lead rainfall is pretty decent in NJ/se NYS as of 315P. Going to be pretty volatile between 11P-7A east of I95 Watch NJ coast first light up with thunderstorms and rainfall of 1-2" in an hr developing near midnight (lasting an hour or two) then spreading ne across parts of LI-CT. PWAT well above 2" for a short time as moisture transport becomes very strong after the 11P news cast. The driver is a modeled 60-65KT SLY jet vcnty ACY at 06Z (12z/29 EC/UK op models), up to 75 kt vcnty PSM 11z/WED. Added WU rainfall so far today for se NYS, its a little less in NJ as of 1 hr ago. Also added the the latest HRRR max gusts, and the EC-WX.US attempt gust algorithm. Lots of 50kt in both. These may be 10-15 kt too high? but if I were living on LI/CT I wouldn't be surprised at a marginally svr thunderstorm between 2A-5A, then off it races to the ne. Let's check back later, or review tomorrow. The idea is to be ahead of the potential reality and prepared. If it doesn't occur, then the modeling is not accurate.418P/29