wdrag

Wantage NJ. Rain back to light-moderate sleet around 450P...some sticking to pavement. 33.8F 509P/23.

Wantage NJ...8sv High Point. Probable final. All rain now w just a few ice pellets at times. 0.4 snow sleet comprised of 0.2 snow and 0.2 sleet. 33.1 slushy underfoot on home pavement due to recent sleet accumulation. First measurable wintry stuff since 2/14-Valentines Day. Seasonal total 20.0. 128P/23.

Wantage NJ...variable intensity IP... 0.3" snow sleet total so far. 33.3F Home pavements now slippery except where treated. Not sure about the roads-not traveling. Today, seems like a good example of where sleet largely diminishes snow totals in the modeling.

NWS ensemble blend prob for more than 1" now forward... not very high probs nw NJ/ne PA HFD, even ORH. Has me concerned The probs were generated at 0822z/23. Walt

Might need to use more conservative Ferrier or Total positive snowfall in this mixed page process after 17z. I'm hoping the 10 to 1 you pasted is right but doubt very much. I will post NWDS prob 1+" 12z today-12z Tuesday...remarkably low.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point is 31F with 0.2" as of 740A. Larger flake flurries in progress at 808AM despite radar showing nothing overhead. mPing reports from vicinity Sussex are mine. Think someone else northeast of me in Sussex County also mPing. First measurable since Feb 14.

60-61 was quite a winter as well. Weatherwise writings on the ~3 big ones, got me fully committed for a weather career. The first one in early Dec 60 was a Sunday snow storm for both Washington and New York pro football games with plows clearing the 10 yard markers, I think in DC.

I know 77-78 was famous for 3 storms in Jan, 20, 26-Feb 7-8 included an Appalachian rim extremely intense storm that buried the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and no doubt it was a fabulous winter. Still 76-77 was special for its cold and frequent snows with the patterns as described previously. One might easily forget the May 9, 1977 snow storm in the interior that was quite special for heavy wet snow, tree damage and impact, especially Massachusetts. I wasn't there but the period of Jan 21-Feb 22, 2015 had to be quite special in New England with Bostons 94" and persistent cold. That's what I want to see return down here near 40N, one of these DJF winters.

I've posted this not to defend against other winters for NYC or elsewhere, but to reshare, what in my lifetime was a wonderful winter of frequent snows and persistent cold. I'd like to experience this again in my lifetime (like Red Sox and Cubs fans were for the previously elusive World Series). Some LCD material I was able to obtain for free on-line. This below us for Central Park. If you look closely it was persistently cold with fairly frequent small snows from late Dec 76-early Feb 77. This was even more impressive for the Boston area (couldn't easily find the Boston LCD's for Dec-76,Jan-Feb77) with frequent clippers redeveloping south of LI, as i recall. Wikipedia has a nice summary of the pattern and I'm sure some herein can post the overall 500 mb pattern. I am curious as to the MJO phases? I think the NAO was generally negative, PNA positive. It was a dream that some of us can recall and probably thought should be the norm. Maybe this occurs within 25 years, again? 823A/17

Wantage NJ (8 s High Point) 0.1" fm snow showers ~ 2-3A. Season 19.6. Roads salted. Pavement mostly bare with dusting of snow just on grass/roofs/cars/wooden decks etc.

430A/13 Wantage NJ final on last evenings snow-sleet..at least 0.3"(melting early today with over 1/4" rain so far). Leftover sleet on grass/roofs/wooden decks/cars, but pavement generally wet. Just salted here. 34.2/33.6. Have a good day. Walt

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 0.2" on all surfaces except pavement wet. 33.9 1004P. Probable last report til morning if anything is left.

Ditto Vernon here in southern Wantage NJ at 845P. snow has started. 38.7/23.5 Possibly my last report of the night.

nw NJ/ne PA... failed forecast expectations for early today high terrain with warm air several hours sooner and minuscule early morning qpf. Couldn't have been more than a Trace of snow here in southern Wantage NJ. Early yesterday was a few hours of what winter used to be like. No snow melt, fluffy 20-25F snow. Was quite something for its 1/2" deposit. wd/529A

Didn't snow much s half Sussex and all Warren Counties but nice coverings ne PA and up here... still snowing lightly here at 934A. I like the odds for tonight...one thing thats happened. colder has been trapped, so far... in nw NJ...seldom is it colder here than MPO...but at my house in Wantage 22F we 740'MSL and MPO around 2000'). NAM didn't do so hot for this morning in en PA/nw NJ. Monitoring for further development south of 12z/9 NAM. One day at a time in the pattern.

Wantage NJ 428A 0.5" fluff. Still snowing but visibility has improved.

Wantage NJ ~335A 0.2" covering everything, nice sized flakes. northeast wind. (06z/9 NAM continues too slow or a miss). We may end up with half an inch of fluff here by 5AM.

I happen to be up and so Wantage has a steady light snow now with decent flake size and a gusty northeast wind. Still only a T but noticing it on car/pavements. 310A/9

Good Sunday morning, especially ne PA, nw NJ participants where light snow has started including here in Wantage as first flurries began ~230A. A minor event to be melted away by 11AM with snow moving out to the northeast of PA/NJ by 6 or 7am. The 00z/9 RGEM and ECMWF are best for this potential 1/2-1" event parts of ne PA and probably less than 1/2 inch event for Sussex County NJ...maybe more like 1 or 2 tenths. 00z 3KM NAM was much better than its 00z/9 12K NAM. Have appended (courtesy of Pivotal Weather) what happened this Saturday afternoon in terms of measurable which can translate to a 10/1 snow ratio of even greater ratio for the high terrain, mainly SE NYS and to the N and NE of Scranton PA. Looks to me that NE PA/ and NJ Sussex County high terrain (Vernon-Wantage) will pick up 1-3" between 11PM Sunday and 6AM Monday per latest ensembles and multiple models. That one has FGEN and much better dendrite growth and would not surprise to see a brief period of 1/2S up here in these parts by 4AM Monday. From what I can tell... EC/RGEM/NAM op runs all have trended slightly colder on the 00z cycle as compared to 12 hours earlier. Again, the decent but small accums should be reserved for higher terrain. 245A/9

Fresh snow and in places above normal snow depth in Adirondacks now.

Good Saturday morning, Feb 8. Minor events next 48hrs nw NJ... produce a little snow, especially high terrain Sussex County NJ. Starts maybe late this afternoon with FGEN, or else a period late tonight with the trailing short wave pout of the OH Valley, then a wet snowfall possible Sunday night turning to rain Monday morning. Should see an inch or two total for Sussex County NJ high terrain by Monday morning. I've added the HRRRX from 06z/8. Seems a little gong ho in nw NJ but if occurs, also allows NYC to see some sort of very light snowfall tonight. Operational HRRR is trying to show something similar but just w of NYC. I am not liking the pattern but noticed CPC is running a little cooler these next several weeks with an active pattern. Here is their outlook issued yesterday for weeks 3-4. We might yet expand the snowfall sample size (sometime in the next 4 weeks). I know unlikely, but stats are comprised of outliers as well. Thats all I can root for. 719A/8

Added a NWS summary graphic from a couple of hours ago. The wind damage reports generally grey, the severe thunderstorm reported qualifying winds and damage in blue, and the heavy snowfall qualifying for the LSR in purple. Certainly a foot in the Adirondacks and they finally have a decent base for snow mobiling. Wind was about 5 knots less than I expected for all of our forum area. Thank you for your observations in this thread.701A/8

Good Friday morning everyone, Feb 7. Interesting day ahead. No change to the obs only thread for wind gusts 45+ and/or damage reports if you'd like to use this. 20MB pressure rises and strong CAA this afternoon the combined drivers. I just dont think I can post during this period. In the meantime, the Euro continues spreading a coating of snow into nw NJ late this afternoon and I think its possible. Don't be surprised at seeing thunder in e PA midday with the 1mb/hour deepening rate of the sfc low. Also, the Sunday morning snow event I think is still on for nw NJ and se NYS...not sure if NYC can see any snow. I'd like to see the GGEM get onto this and so no guarantee that this event occurs. IF it happens..up to an inch possible high terrain nw NJ/se NYS. Cause: trailing 500MB weakening short wave. Late Sunday night-Monday morning...less certainty on snow same area of nw NJ/se NYS, but could happen with an inch or 2 before a change to rain. This minor impact event rain or snow in a part of our area is multimodeled. Cause: WAA associated with the next approaching trough and building 500 MB ridge east coast. 539A/7 hopefully no typos.

Hi... Just posted a preferred OBS only topic for wind damage on Friday. All the posts herein on wind damage I agree with. I don't know if a Gravity Wave will occur with this low pressure development but some of the cues are there including an excessively strong jet into the ridge position ahead of a negatively tilting and shortening wave length, with what seems to me to be a shallow inversion north of a warm front. I don't want to stretch the science, and others on here may not see enough precursor information in the modeling. I think we'll know by 11AM tomorrow if this will happen by checking upstream pressure fall-rise couplets, unusual wave like striations in some of the radar data (as i recall), some sort of upstream convection along with intense snowfall rates, for an hour or two, developing along the spine of the Appalachians PA northward. I'll be working so after 6AM I cannot monitor. Also, while its going be very windy for a time, not sure if I see this as a sting jet where I'd like to see a developing closed low at 500mb assist in the wraparound strong downward transfer. 2423P/6

Hi, Many have been posting about wind problems in our forum area for the past 5 days and it looks like it should come to pass between roughly 10A-3P Friday Feb 7. The combination of rapidly intensifying low pressure to a near record for our area in February, with the associated negative tilting short wave short wave passage followed by strong afternoon pressure rises and associated cold air advection should favor a period of ~50MPH wind gusts for a short time in most of our area, conceivably well over 60 MPH in at least a few locations. This combined with somewhat soft ground for mid winter may lead not only to broken tree limbs/wires, power outages, but also a few uproots, especially with the weakened tree structure from the Dec 1-3 wet snow storm (nw NJ especially). I've checked IGW composite and while not a classic, I would not be surprised at some sort of convectively induced gravity wave that ""if"" occurs, would modulate the flow and pop 50 MPH gusts into even the thermally inverted sounding north of the warm front (currently s of LI). This thread has been started because I think we're coming into a time when forum participants are going to be seeing lots of snow to rain opportunities between tomorrow afternoon and Valentines Day. I wanted a place where we can just post the observed wind, wind damage reports for this uncommonly low pressure passage.