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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Good Monday morning all, 27 has been started by NHC. Going to head nw for a few days, and may not recurve newd til late Friday. Pressure drops down to the 950s or 960's (MB) and intensity forecasts continue to increase in NHC guidance. This should be interesting near Bermuda and then the longer period (11second?) 7+ foot (GFS guidance) e-se swells arriving east coast (including Atlantic LI-NJ) late in the week. Going to be a rough ride in the western and then northern Atlantic the next 5-8 days.
  2. wdrag
    27 started by NHC this morning. TC phase for at least two days has been very good on predicting immediate warm core and the intensity to ~TS sometime today. Intensity guidance has been ramping up. Presume the eventual Epsilon should get down to the the 950s or 960sMB by ~late Friday's beginning of recurvature to the ne. UK operationals I think so far are the most intense. Going to be a bit rougher on the ocean along the east coast by the end of the week due to long period easterly and eventual southeasterly swells.
  3. wdrag
    Epsilon (eventual): Should be sizable TC...pretty impressive looking 'potential'...still a slight westward displacement in eventual track from 24 hours previous but too far east of the E coast. Swells of 7 feet or higher seem plausible to LI by Friday with much bigger impact on marine seas near Bermuda. Intensity forecasts continue to increase-06z/19 attached.
  4. wdrag
    Hi! Adding this 12z/18 intensity forecast graphic. Based solely on this, my guess is Epsilon would be named by 00z/Tue -20th. ?? I should be corrected if others see it different. The only reason to post this intensity forecast is to show a general uptick in the intensity forecast from that which was posted a couple of days ago, and that some of the models swap intensity forecasts. I presume others are seeing the return of the Caribbean potential in 12z/18 multi models (excluding the UK/EC which have not posted as of this note). It is still e of FL with an unknown magnitude/track but I think worthy of monitoring. 123P/18
  5. wdrag
    Guessing it will be pretty warm ahead... we'll have to watch low lvl moisture that could lower potential 'max' temps along the coasts as overall, it looks like high pressure to our north with short attempts at w-sw surface flow. Most of the time it seems some sort of onshore flow? Not sure this is an entirely clean week ahead... I could see some drizzle, even a shower on one or two days of the next 7 (excluding today). Also, slight cirrus and very thin smoke aloft this morning. A somewhat thicker plume from the CO fire would possibly be noticed tomorrow with the only drawback being the likelihood of multiple layers of clouds.
  6. wdrag
    Have posted on the tropical page regarding what should be a big ocean storm near Bermuda. Impact here probably only swells of 5-6 feet s LI NJ coast around the 23rd-24th.
  7. wdrag
    Am not giving up on Caribbean Sea development around the 25th--- possibly now delayed 3-4 days for what appears to be a large named storm near Bermuda developing this coming week ahead. Water temp anomaly continues weakly positive in the Caribbean genesis area and northward the se USA coast. Last weeks GFS modeling for that that storm has trended null for that date, but my feeling based on fewer but still strong GEFS 500 MB members, is that something is going to get going there between the 25th-28th. Magnitude unknown and maybe just minor. In the meantime: Bermuda- soon to be named Epsilon, seems to be gaining support for a significant ocean storm in the Atlantic vicinity just E and N of Bermuda. Interaction with the Atlantic ridge seems to be forcing a little more w-nw displacement since we looked 24 hours ago, too far off the coast for direct E coast impact, but swells of 5- 6 feet will probably be (typo corrected 1227P) arriving LI s coast by 23rd-24th. This per 00z-06z weaker GFS-GEFS model guidance suggestions, from the still seemingly conservative GFS. WH near Bermuda should be exceeding 12 feet by the 23rd (graphic attached). I have checked Tropical Cyclone Phase (Robert Hart's page) on a number of models excluding the EC... it's modeled warm core. First I need to know we have a named storm and then monitor ridge adjustment to the north of it's eventual nnw-ne recurve.
  8. wdrag
    Not considering a topic for the 25th-27th for at least the next 2-5 days, till the tropics get sorted out, and the eastern USA currently modeled positive tilt trough sharpens, which it may not. We in the NYC forum appear to be in a baroclinic zone that last week of October. Just need to wait out all the model variations for a few days til a more likely model-derived consensus idea of future reality becomes apparent.
  9. wdrag
    Had some help from there tropical board and then did a check. Attached graphics have an answer... Post review in 2006 added a previously undocumented storm (#19). Wikipedia first pgh covers the late added storm
  10. wdrag
    Hi! Been asked a question: Trying to save a little time... if someone here has an answer, could you reply. Thank you. 2005? Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28? Which is correct? Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28? Walt
  11. wdrag
    I "think" Epsilon gets named within 48 hours. Here's some prelim multi-model intensity guidance and EPS tracks. Bermuda area. I think this is the first publicly available non NHC specific ensemble= guidance. Use your best judgement. Last I checked today, Tropical Phase Cyclone guidance suggested warm core symmetric for this. Let's see what happens. No matter, I'm leaving any topic naming on this forum and all the tropical details of intensification/track/broadening coverage to our group participants, since I'm no tropical expert. I just like that the models have been onto this for quite awhile.
  12. wdrag
    I think Epsilon may get named within 48 hrs. Am posting on tropical page a couple of graphics. It probably won't a direct influence on our area except for swells... however, its eventual development may strengthen the WAR, and provide an even more favorable flow pattern for the 25tth-26th? We'll see, Post goes up by 525PM, unless it's already done there by a tropics poster.
  13. wdrag
    A fair amount of discussion about the 25th-26th... am considering a topic since it's amped with potential, but that this could still easily be a marine storm once past FL. I'd like to see more ensemble agreement on a storm up the coast, supported by 30% or greater prob for 2"+ along the E Coast. If that were to occur, it's probably a few days off but imo, little doubt (in my mind) the models are onto two more tropical systems 19th-26th in the W ATLC. One other thing...while most of the debate is about 1) whether a storm, and then 2) either out to sea or up the coast... I can visualize jet stream pattern adjustments that permit E GMEX and northward up the W side of Apps. Just very-very-very early.
  14. wdrag
    0.20 Wantage NJ since around 3 or 4A, most of it after 10A.
  15. wdrag
    NHC up to 60% on the Bermuda storm (Epsilon?) at 2P/16. This one apparently will probably stay out there vicinity Bermuda before taking off northeast after the 22nd?
  16. wdrag
    EC is seeming to come aboard now with two storms... still lackluster on the FL storm but at least it admits something.
  17. wdrag
    Just for fun: I've finally found the LR GEFS wave and wind forecast site for the Atlantic. Graphic below is for chance of wave heights above 12 feet around 10/25. This is accomplished without the 00z/16 OP contribution from (?Zeta? = Cuba-FL vicinity). Note the sw Atlantic. I checked Cyclone Phase Analysis and Forecasting for the Bermuda - Central Atlantic storm of 20-23... its warm core on all models. To me, that suggests a named storm eventually. Probs slowly coming up on the TWO. SST may be a little marginal in the initiation area but if it does slip southwest for a while, it may move over more favorable ocean heat. Also, SST continue a bit above normal se USA coast and e GMEX and anomaly is tending to depart positively a bit there.
  18. wdrag
    Phasers are not easy... so fwiw... I like them but so easy for them to miss or come in pieces.
  19. wdrag
    Remember Sandy? Different pattern but W VA mountains I think got hammered with 2 feet (EC had it several days in advance). Right now I need to go one step at a time... I want to see the Bermuda storm happen (only a hybrid? in stead of named event) and then we need something decent near FL by the 25th-26th. I do recall someone posting very recently about GFS physics being biased cold, later in its future forecast steps... so for now, I have to think of climo, cold biases and lack of phasing potential--- all not in our favor but it is a member of the collective ensemble.
  20. wdrag
    At this distant view, I take more or less what the ensembles give me... and that yes... the TC of whatever sort bothers FL around the 25th-26th (could be west coast) but eventually heads ne along the SE USA coast and then too far s and e of us BUT, tropical systems also alter the upper air patterns---not exactly sure if it's the chicken or the egg- but I expect more ridging to develop in the W ATLC and more troughing near 80-85W and therefore an option for a coastal hugger up the E coast. For this situation, UNTIL i see no storm develop, or the trough remains as its now modeled-too much 240 degrees flow up here (instead potential 200 degrees flow)- I wont lose sight of that option. Let's see what evolves.
  21. wdrag
    Good Friday morning everyone, I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27. Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to trend recently. If not, then no problem. 00z/16 NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical. Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 657A/16
  22. wdrag
    Good Friday morning everyone, No topic for me on todays rainfall... helpful for sure. Am expecting basically 1/2 to 2" depending on repeat episodes of showers. Note impossible to see 2.5" but to me this is relatively normal. I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27. Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to show recently. If not, then no problem. NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical. Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 654A/16
  23. wdrag
    8PM NHC post tonight... 00z/15 issuance. All very low probs so I'll defer to the eventual reality... something potentially to look at between the 19th-27th.
  24. wdrag
    My final on this event: Here is CoCORAHS sampling (entire event). Not sure if anyone saw how much rain fell in Hartford County yesterday (Southington etc). I know Hartford is out of our area...but over 4.5" up there and so our area only has a documented max of around 4". Graphics are appended for verification purposes.
  25. wdrag
    Good Wednesday morning... It's now 4 days since the GEFS was signaling two new TC's in the 17th-26. CAVEAT: I'm NOT-NOT A TROPICAL EXPERT. All i do is read the models-ensembles-trends, realize pattern recognition generally adds value and then use all the experts surrounding us (Including here and other forums) and go from there. I also try to account for the possibility of modeling expectations to fail---i.e. NO storms. That said... Whether a TC-hybrid comes up the E coast ???? timing timing timing with the primary trough reforming eastern USA next 2 weeks. What I'm 80-90% confident of is one, probably two Tropical Cyclones in the week of the 19th-26th in the tropical Atlantic (Epsilon, and Zeta). This was first developing as an option on the GEFS ~ Oct 10th 00z-06z cycle. The GGEM is now grabbing onto the first s of Bermuda around the 20th. The EC has something too, and in the operational cycle brings it nw to the se USA coast by the 24th. However the 00z/14 EC ensembles progress west and then have a difficult time figuring out two storms (one heading west toward FL, the other moving north from s of CUBA). The GEFS continues strong on the second storm and tracking uncertain. SST continue above normal near the FL coast (below normal near Bermuda and w GMEX due to prior storms upwelling). 00z/14 NAEFS has some idea but undefined right now... My "guess" is in a day or two, NHC TWO will latch onto the first disturbance heading w toward the region s of Bermuda- the latter TC disturbance may not be defined for another 5 days---? Experts should comment here on MJO favorability for the tropical 19th-26th?? (I'm also not an expert on the MJO impacts) I've submitted this for critique on the tropical forum looking for some contrary expertise. My take for my own use: If I had a choice--I'm not taking a cruise between Bermuda and Key West between the 19th-26th. I don't need to deal with the pitch and roll of a rough sea. (Did that on FAMFLOAT with the NWS back in the early 90s and it wasn't a TC--just a winter storm). 1115A/14
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