wdrag

My near last on this event: LSR graphic as of about 930P for the 130-7P event. For rainfall reports...suggest wait til 10A Monday for the COCORAHS summary--Hows this multi sensor map??. I spot checked OKX.. no LSR summary and no PNS as of 945P. I had 0.91"

Updated LSR map from about 715P. Will try to load a final later this eve. Walt

Torrents in progress for Wantage... not quite as bad as other areas. 0.77 so far today which includes over half an inch in the past ~15 minutes. Walt 505P.

fwiw: Wantage looking west southwest. Mammatus as storms split upstream. Time about 347P. Anvil edge and then clear sky wow horizon.

Impressive.

So transferring Wantage 28th report from the SVR 27th to here. Wantage 0.18" in about 10 MIN centered around 150-55. Saw the other comments of hail vicinity High Point-Port Jervis.

I guess today will be bigger in Ny metro than yesterday? Figured I'd start this if you want to use and keep the rest of the reports off yesterdays disappointment topic. Will start with the first posted LSR. Will replace these LSR maps as time permits and events dictate. See SPC D1 and local NWS offices/friends etc for any comments.

Wantage (southern part) around .18" in ~10 min, no hail. Max G 15 MPH. rainfall rate ~1"/hr. Decent needed rain. We need more.

I see a post of near golf ball hail on the ground near Port Jervis. thanks for the report. Wantage had 0.18 in about 10 minutes of torrent and dog barking thunder. About done now. Walt

Good Sunday morning everyone, Here is the wrap-up: Failed outlook...ending up further south and faster, with less CAPE, Heating was less-max T near 80; and so the instability in advance was limited. This ended up not worthy of my raising expectations. However, I've added two images. One is the rainfall estimates..I think this is accurate. You can see how some of the previously posted graphics didn't fare too well. In my opinion, the GFS qpf did okay (EC gusts predictor for NYS/PA was forever failed in this event). All models tend to err the track of the svr convective bands around here, which are usually further south than modeled. In this case you see the nice stripe of heavy rainfall south of I80. NYC metro, glad you got something...your first extensive minor event since the 11th (as I spot checked). SVR: few reports in the heavy qpf axis south of NYC. Hopefully this summary is useful. 648A/28 at 158P. I added on more detailed LSR info, as pulled from the LOT LSR website, a national program that I like. https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/lsrmap.html?sid=lot The link is above. 158P/28

Saw the 13z D1 update and I like it. I really like the 12zHRRR... but whether it comes to pass is questionable. I suggests a bow echo and possible northern bookend to the bow. Till it degrades, still worthy of monitoring. (we had sprinkles here in Wantage around 830A-845A) Walt 1311z/27

Good Saturday morning everyone, My feeling is that there may not be enough instability (heat, Cape) in advance for much svr, but some of the modeling as per SPC D1 545z discussion still gives opportunity. Just looks to me like primary event is a bit too soon this afternoon and with cloud cover, the best heat 90+ looks south of our area. Therefore, think best chance severe is I80-i78 as someone previously mentioned. So for this NYC metro forum, would think it will rain and if we get lucky, a few spots near I80 should pick up 0.5-1.5" in heavy convection this afternoon-evening w still a small chance svr. Suspect, there will be better days this summer for westerly flow severe in NYC. Just has trended a little further south and faster since Wednesdays post (result less primed prior instability) Follow SPC, your local NWS forecast offices for updates from their view, and your other knowledgeable resources-friends. If I do manage a svr storm, I'll post here. Otherwise, it's an mPing day. Walt 552A/27

I cant comment any further with confidence on best axis for svrz. I'm a little disappointed so far, in midwest svr reports. From what i can tell...general thunder/heavy rain in MI but bigger storms in IL heading ese, so far. Maybe I'll add something at 730A Saturday, but you're welcome to point out things that have been missed. When I wake up tomorrow, I expect to be pinging ~ 8a/9A for far nw NJ and hoping enough time to heat up mid afternoon. Don't think the models have handled OH storms very well??- could be a sign, south, unless debris goes so far south, it opens up s NYS faster??? just dont know. Gotta rest for now, Walt

No new answers... see BGM, PHI, OKX, BOX discussions for their take as well as SPC D1,2 updates and of course your favorite model guidance. It's possible that there will only be one big band (early-mid-afternoon). I do like the 12z 3K NAM, HRRR, SPC HREF options and even the 12z EC still has 35-40 kt gusts sprayed here and there across PA/NNJ to NYC. I still think south is the way to go... near 180 where intersection of best heating/instability advection with speed-directional shear 850-500mb. But. i wouldn't discount near the sfc low ctr nr I90. mPing winds-hail may be helpful info as currently vcnty n IL (several pea hail as of 30 minutes ago). System starting to get going in s WI/N IL at this time. Walt

Unsure... What I do know is that the big stuff tends to turn right (south) of modeled (along 1000-500mb thick), because it wants instability-heat to drive it. so for me, Its between BGM-POU-GON south to I195 (TTN) on Saturday.... I'd go w local NWS experts including SPC discussion info, and high resolution CAMS models (if you can get access to them). I prefer no convection NYC metro 1330z-220z to get this to work to its potential. 850 winds are pretty strong. May post mid afternoon? Later, Walt

Good Friday morning everyone, You've seen the D2 from SPC issued earlier this morning. Convective debris (leftover) in the morning may minimize potential, but for now... I think a potentially substantial outbreak of SVR, especially near I80 in n PA/extreme s NYS with a possible bookend vortex crossing NYC area (IF---and only IF it's maintained in future NAM/HRRR modeling through the 12z/27 cycle. I'm viewing this as a two thunderstorm episode day, one early near 12z/27, the other as per GFS/NAM modeling for 22zish. The 06z/26 HRRR has the 12z/27 nicely suggested for our area but I'm hoping the 17z/27 band is wrong (too fast). The HRRR agrees more with the EC. Myself, in heavy convection, I favor the GFS-HRRR. For mariners, the SPC HREF ens MAX gust is provocative and not sure it can verify? It has the strongest wind in the entire ne USA over eastern LI and adjacent LI waters between 22z/27 and 00z/28. Cold water makes me wonder but what it suggests to me, all of LI is in the mix for a svr episode late Saturday, provided the event occurs after 21z with no convection between 14z-21z over LI. 647A EDT/26

We'll see how it goes: They have increased their D2 with "enhanced" risk over MI. I could see one band of marginal dying svr scraping NNJ-NYC/CT around 12z, then it heats up to 90-95 at 4P, refires in the late afternoon. It sort of looks like a dual thunderstorm episode day to me. Convective debris-timing will make some difference in results. Pretty clear to me that the wind fields will be there, and that there is strong WAA, strong instability advection with late day sfc based Cape 1000-2000J all along I80. Sometimes the Cape is there because of previous convection which can make the Cape misleading. So, in my mind, as of 20z/25... my concern is whether the primary convective band is midday Saturday, or do we have sort of a wfrontal strong convective band at 12z/27, then a developing line of severe nearly overhead late in the day-eve? Don't know, but I think it's worth keeping an eye on. (i never like it when the back edge of the svr risk is shifted into our area... I always like it better when the final big band of thunderstorms has developed upstream and rolls into better instability over our area. Unknowns for me, especially not with tools that I used to have in NWS. Just dont know for sure what will happen but I think its worth the heads up to witness the evolution, good or bad.

Good Wednesday morning everyone, Unsure whether this will happen but mass field signals seem to me to flag potential for one or two bands of svr storms racing east in strong low level WAA (and moist too-CAPE, and KI modeled going way up). Early max gust signal of 40+ knot in the EC for 5 consecutive cycles upstate NY and far northwest PA toward 00z/Sunday the 27th. So, I'll just wait this out... see what happens (see if EC is too robust?). 00z/24 GEFS and EPS similar on wind fields 850, 500mb. You're welcome to add on and I'll post the SPC SVR reports image, Sunday the 27th, after 12z. It's possible the heat here on Saturday (90-95F non marine influenced) could be minimized if the storms arrive too soon, but my guess, per modeling seen early this Wednesday June 24, is that the SVR event would occur (IF??) in our area between 6P Saturday and 4A Sunday. If you wish to see any graphics I've referenced, let me know. I may not reply immediately.

Wantage NJ 0.2" so far at 1145P May 8 on top of 0.70" rainfall. 33F. Down from 43F at 830P. Seasonal total 20.7"

Hi! Prob for 1" run by NWS ensemble at 2029z/6 seems a little low on the prob for 1" by 18z Saturday. Reflects the diversity of solutions and difficulty accumulating snow after late Friday afternoon temps in the 40s as well as short duration of decent Fri night snow or in NYC (mixed R/S?). Pretty sure widespread flurries Saturday morning and gusts 40-50MPH Saturday midday-afternoon,. Will check back early Thursday.

Wantage: 0.1" slushy snow on all surfaces except pavement wet at 35F. Snow/rain began around 430, all rain by 545P, back to snow at 8P. Still snowing 1020P.

Wantage NJ 0.2" of hard packed snow on all surfaces except pavement...~3A-4A. 34F. 528A/10

Wantage NJ 0.2" of hard packed snow on all surfaces except pavement...~3A-4A. 34F. Season 20.4 525A/10

Wantage NJ 636PM about 1 min of pea sized hail mixed with rain. 48F. Now just rain with clearing west. Walt 641P EDT/30. Was mPing'd

So, here's a little mapping of yesterdays snow-sleet totals. I've also included an example of EPS prob off 3+" and NWS prob of 1+" from around 08z/23. It is obvious to me the NWS ensemble was much more conservative in PA/NJ, but did not perform very well in NYS/New England which you could also see in the actual ensemble forecasts (not shown here). EPS/EC op failure on the southern edge (too robust) may be related to how it handles sleet conversion to snow depth (10 to 1). NWS probabilistic ensemble may suffer from a problem I've been seeing regarding the GFS determining rain vs snow... I think the GFS is a little weak on determining the approximate rain-snow line. I saw this clearly a month ago in a midwest system and it occurred again yesterday. No modeling to my knowledge handled the rain back to sleet in ne PA/nw NJ late afternoon- that little surprise I can live with. The first two reality check maps are the best I can do in a hurry to fill in some actual data. The latter two, the EPS prob of 3+, 85% and greater did very well! The NWS ensemble for 1+ inch produced ~ 08z/23 didn't do too well. These are the issues that need to be dealt with in briefing folks. Finally, the complex problems of merging data sets-in a hurry I might add- in the operational setting. The last image was the snowfall forecast issued "Sunday" morning 09z/22. Not too shabby---overdone a little here and there on the southern edge, but convert the sleet to snow and you've got the numbers. Effectively, this NWS operational map which we all use for point-click output, was a pretty good effort. Good work there, imo. 1517z/24