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SPC D1 prompts this topic. Have a little concern that todays strongest storms (2-3" rain producers/damaging wind) will be concentrated down in central or s NJ, but some spots in our NY metro from NYC westward should see isolated SVR late today. Think eastern LI is out of it today. However, with the large CAPE axis just s of us, cannot rule out a cluster of drenching thunderstorms forming-developing eastward later tonight and eventually making it to eastern LI. This latter is with considerable uncertainty.

I see one shower crossed the western part to CT last night--insignificant. 18z GFS was spatially far too wet - in our area. Poor 6-12 hr minor qpf performance.

What's up w 18z GFS (wet overnight into parts of NY forum)? I do see a shower heading se from NYS for sw CT. Hmmm? Will check in the morning to see if anything happened. (HRRR is dry, so far).

Good Sunday afternoon, Just a couple of notes: SPC upgraded mid Atlantic tomorrow to "marginal". Not sure if it can happen along the NYS/NJ border but trust SPC considerations... modeling that I/we might not be aware of. Also, IF and/or when NHC starts Edouard/FAY??? mid week and confidently-reliably projects QPF impact here (still easily could be an unnamed low), we may want a separate topic from what is potentially going to develop Monday afternoon through Thursday. Think the indicators are continuing in some of the 12z/5 modeling for an active-heavy QPF Mon-Thu in parts of NY metro (including parts of LI-WAA). SPC HREF has potential for 1"+ thunderstorms near or south of I80 Monday afternoon-evening (HREF mean qpf is less) responding to increased CAPE/PWAT and the associated instability burst, with a little 850 flow kink modeled toward our area. and below from SPC regarding Monday potential: ...Southern NY/western PA and the Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... Modest vertical shear will exist across the region on Monday afternoon/evening, with strong flow and forcing for ascent focused further to the north over New England as a shortwave trough shifts eastward and eventually offshore. However, a very moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F common. Strong heating (high temps 85-95) will result in steep low level lapse rates and MLCAPE values from 2000-3000 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates also will be steeper thanks to cooling aloft associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. As a result, clusters of thunderstorms capable of sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible during the afternoon and evening.

The future briefly per use of some of the modeling info: Continues interesting for me/NYC forum. I think lots of rain... isolated ~4" by Thursday evening in a couple of spots of NNJ/se NYS? WPC 00z/5 products are starting to move in the right direction...increasing amounts but not everyone is getting more than 1/2" by Thursday night. WARM front is the focus and it's not only afternoon/evening, but some unleashing of potential during the overnight. Late today: possible isolated decent thunderstorm, I think mainly sw CT drifting toward LI. Trough reinforcement. Monday late afternoon evening: I believe the GFS convection. PWAT CAPE-KI will be increasing. More attempted details tomorrow but GEFS has easy 2000+ sfc CAPE modeled near I78. Tuesday-Tuesday night: Warm front should be quite active. PWAT increasing to between 1.75-2". Looks interesting to me. Wet microbursts (SVR) possible? Wednesday afternoon-evening: remnant warm front, PWAT-CAPE still up. Still some torrents around. Thursday: CAP 700-500MB may develop, but if not...then I think we tend to see convection primarily north of I80 (extreme nw NJ-se NYS-CT) but drifting southeast as the warm front to our south should have dissipated northeastward ahead of the subtropical low(see NHC X this morning and it's projected path). Friday and weekend: Eventual 2+ PWAT and unloading torrents either from the subtropical low itself (track-timing uncertain to me as per operational cycles of GFS/EC/GGEM/UK), or the cold front developing eastward with the Great Lakes trough and focusing heavy convection late Saturday or Sunday? I hope this is a good week for those enjoying the benefits of convection. 706A/5

Commenting on the early Sunday morning activity NJ coast that had a few showers, even over w LI. Nothing analyzed for a trigger that I could see in OKX/PHI early AFD's. Only comment is the GFS. It is my favorite for convective potential (even the overnight operational HRRR missed this; SPC HREF -12z/4/00z/5 had an idea but too far inland). It (GFS) may be spatially a little too large but if it pumps up something, best to evaluate and consider all the reasons why it won't happen, before dismissing. GFS was flagging this a little bit, back to the 12z/4 cycle (tropical tidbits previous runs verifying 12z/5).

Wantage NJ ~8 s High Point just tipped 0.02" with our 310P shower, T in the 202P shower. We'll take it. 81/73 at 313P EDT July 4.

Like just missing a deer... that close in a very tight gradient. I've seen an inch a mile. Walt

Here's a graphic of 3.3+. Hope this works okay... CoCoRAHS observers. Also from OKX via PNS. CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport Airport 3.98 759 PM 7/03 ASOS Stratford 3.06 800 PM 7/03 CWOP Fairfield 1.57 757 PM 7/03 CWOP 1 NW Stratford 1.43 805 PM 7/03 AWS Bridgeport 1.28 800 PM 7/03 CWOP

I guess that that near 4" takes a care of it... I wanted to start with 2.5. Will check with CoCoRAHS soon to check. Walt

Hi everyone and celebrate safely! I was a little disappointed in seemingly not much activity after about 9P last night, but the verification isn't too bad. I knew there were still over 15,000 customers without power around 9P last night in the tri state. Looking for any rainfall reports in our NYC forum area over 2.5" = radar shows some spots in sw CT. Here is a glance at the report and radar-sensor verification. 606A/4

Good Saturday morning everyone, Hope you're safely celebrating! I've little change to my early Friday post except to flag Monday's convective risk as potentially occurring near or south of I78, bit it's too early for me to throw in the towel for Monday. In the meantime, I can still see something here in nw NJ this afternoon, not real big but an interrupting shower or thunderstorm. Still high dew points. Had 0.21" last evening around 7PM. Will look more closely Sunday morning on next weeks activity. Adding some of the verification for yesterday on the Friday event topic. Would like to find max rainfall... I am quite sure over 2.5" in CT. I haven't had time to review all the updates in the past 24 hours but any reports over 2"--please toss em in- thanks!. 601A/4

Good Friday morning - July 3. NYC metro forum area. Plenty of southeastward slow moving convective afternoon or evening action next week in differential WAA, but each day, some parts will miss. (had 0.01 shower around 3-4P Thursday but nothing of the southward moving severe in eastern NYS last eve). Saturday: if anything, associated with leftover RH and 500MB rough, forenoon-early afternoon showers or thunderstorms nw NJ developing southward (from Orange County NYS) Sunday: if anything looks very late in the day and northwest of the city?? Monday: Better chance for torrents but modeling seems to delay till around or after 6P. PWAT comes back up to 1.6". Of interest is that these storms (presuming they develop) will be moving about as fast as those of this Friday afternoon July 3, due to fairly decent nw flow at mid-upper levels. Would not surprise to see iso SVR. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday afternoons: "provided there are lift features" (check surface isobars/winds when we get to the day and also modeled 850MB vorticity), should be some big stuff as EC/GFS modeled CAPE/KI go up (2000+J, KI near 36). Should be noted EC cape from 00z/3 has shifted to the northern edge of NYC metro (just n of NYC) while GFS is overhead. Still confident of activity developing overhead or to our north and drifting southeastward. These will be in a slow moving wind field and so potential exists for narrow bands of 1-3" rainfall each day, presuming storms develop in what should be a streamy environment of heat indices near 100F. I don't see a cap...though it might be close on Thursday. Friday and beyond: not commenting since models diverge considerably on treatment of this weekends Gulf coast low (Fl Panhandle-Mississippi coast) becoming a subtropical development moving northeastward from the Carolina coast. GFS is yesterdays operational EC while todays (00z/3) operational EC and GGEM were further north and a bit slower than cycles from 00z/2. With no obvious cap evident next week, it's a matter of lift features, yielding bands of strong storms and daily "isolated" SVR in a generally warmer than normal increasingly large PWAT with 90s heat M-Thu (ne NJ -Morris-Hudson counties area). Where the best action... differs each day and no guarantee every day but to me it looks fairly potent, especially with, I think, a boundary lurking nearby (tonights coming back north but possibly reinforced by thunderstorm outflow to be quasi -stationary nearby into the middle of next week?). 651A EDT/3

Good Friday morning July 3, 2020. This mornings SPC marginal risk, OKX near term discussion covers the basics (both review more data than I). Additionally I like to use SPC HREF which from my daily review WPC uses frequently for its day1 QPF. Have made this a larger window for thunderstorms/heavy rainers due to some of modeling lingering through ~06z, which I think is possible (not strictly heating related convection). Believe most of the big storms are in the 5-10P window associated with 850 MB vorticity-trough passing southward into our area. Regarding Severe: "probably" isolated but power outages from lightning could be somewhat more extensive than the damaging wind gusts due to PWAT briefly near 2" this eve. Can see isolated rainfall 3.5" somewhere in the area... best chance I think is se NYS or NNJ...from 2-3 bands of heavy showers/storms this afternoon, otherwise WPC D1 qpf looks reasonable. Will post as time permits later today/this eve and summarize with final LSR/Rainfall maps sometime around 6A Saturday.

Good Thursday morning - July 2. NYC forum area. Plenty of southeastward slow moving convective afternoon or evening action the next week or so in differential WAA, but each day, some parts will miss. This afternoon...less unstable so a couple of showers or storms possible but my guess mostly out of se NYS into NNJ? Friday afternoon-evening: SPC marginal risk. Looks reasonable for a few torrents/iso SVR. Saturday: if anything, looks way west of NYC? Sunday: if anything looks very late in the day and northwest of the city? Monday: Better chance for torrents. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday afternoons: "provided there are lift features", should be some big stuff as EC modeled CAPE/KI go up (2000+J, KI near 36) Friday and beyond: not commenting since models diverge considerably on treatment of se USA into the Atlantic low. No cap evident next week and so it's a matter of lift features, yielding bands of strong storms and daily "isolated" SVR in a generally warmer than normal increasingly large PWAT with near 90F heat M-Thu. Where the best action... differs each day. 615A EDT/2

Wrapping up this two day, mostly Wednesday 11A-10P event with a course but useful graphic of 2 day rainfall. Of interest via the legend...several pockets 2"+ rainfall. Saw the note from bluewave on Harrison NJ rainfall of 2.79 midday yesterday. A little surprised by big hailer e LI at dinner time yesterday. Apparently a few reports smaller hail in NJ. It rained and there were lightning strikes. fwiw, I only traced yesterday in this part of Wantage NJ..two day total 0.07"= summer convection and its extreme gradients. 554A EDT/2

Will post more more coherently Thursday morning, regarding the potential of the Friday, Monday-Friday workweek events of next week (looks like to me like at least 3, if not 4 more afternoons of thunderstorms between Fridays the 3rd-10th-not necessarily severe but won't surprise at isolated severe wet microbursts, despite lackluster wind fields aloft. Cape/KI/PWAT related and any boundaries.

Will post a multisensor two rainfall map. Saw the prelim LSR map. Surprised no 2" reports today and maybe a little less hail reported in NY forum area than expected but at least most heard thunder. Thanks for following up the past two days.

Hail Size in Princeton? I see water rescues Harrison NJ.

Hi! Forenoon update... looking more like what I thought would happen yesterday, even yesterday during the height of the activity. Per radar 1540z radar and OKX response... am thinking we're off to a much better start. Includes radar determined ISOLATED hailers, and torrents NY metro. Let's see what evolves. 1541z/1

Yesterdays expectation was not realized...unsure whether we can this afternoon (thunder/iso small hail/G 35 KT)? Agree w OKX early morning AFD on pulse svr. Looks maybe a tad more unstable today...definitely need temps several degrees warmer later today to have a chance of realizing bigger southward moving storms. I doubt if I'll comment during the day. Will produce a 2 day summary (precip estimate) of rainfall tomorrow. Yesterday's (since 12z/30) is attached. (0.07 here in Wantage yesterday afternoon). 609A EDT-1009Z/1

Instability should increase today and especially Wednesday with modeled cape and ki increasing a bit as the cold pool aloft drifts nearby. EC lightning density also supports. Low cloud and/or cooling sea breezes probably minimize strong storm potential for the eastern portion of LI. Have not delved into detail of the modeled soundings but yesterdays activity should be repeated, and maybe more so, but not quite the same locations. I'm favoring NYS/NNJ and probably also down from extreme sw CT into the NY metro. It's possible several locations will have as much as 2.5" of rain by Wednesday evening while most of us have, as posted by WPC (less than 1/2"). Hail sizes...unknown, but certainly in some of the afternoon storms. More rainbows - yes. Wind gusts, usually below 35kt, but as per yesterday, several storms might pop damaging wind. Hail and damaging wind are probably not outlooked by SPC through 09z/30 issuance, due to uncertainty and likelihood of not matching their areal coverage criteria for alerting. This continues last weekends interesting weather and added needed rainfall for the NY forum, in what appears to me, another 10 days-multiple episodes of thunderstorms with this noted in the General Discussion Observations topic. Would like to keep this thread to June 30-July 1. Hope thunderstorm production lives up to expectations- I think the stronger storms will be Wednesday afternoon, barring low overcast arriving from New England. Yesterdays LSR map attached and will delete it late today, after the first round. 630A/30 One other note: OKX AFD from early this morning has it well covered.

Nice rain bows posted yesterday. Looks like a busy 10 days ahead for potential stripes of drenching rain, some hail and a few severe storms. Plenty of modeled cape-ki ahead and while wind fields marginal, you noticed what happened late yesterday NYC area. I'm going for today, Wednesday, Friday, possibly next Monday, and then after that HI and PWAT seem to increase next week.

Have taken a bit more time to look ahead these next 6 days (thru Saturday) when convection should be flirting with our area many afternoons (especially north of I80). For hailers, in our NY forum area, it looks to me like Wednesday afternoon is the most probable day. Not saying 1" diameter or greater, but thinking hail is in the mix that afternoon due to cape/lightning density and KI projections. Not posting a separate thread for that day as it's probably mostly routine scattered heavy rainers, a bit of small hail here and there.

No time to disect: Presume others on here already chatting up possible hailers Tue-Wed-Thu afternoon? Not necessarily severe but cold pool aloft will help. Walt