wdrag

So in summary, yesterday was a relative bust in northern NJ. Maybe this activity was hooked on orographic (e PA, se NYS?), or a boundary that I couldn't easily discern. No SVR, just good rain as per the graphics added. Isolated 4+ per digital and DIX radar (red's), and while no NWS-CoCORAHS published 4+ reports yesterday, suspect near Newburgh, New Windsor in se NYS and also se PA near Pottstown. Modest storms in NJ had decent outflows (pushing south) but apparently the modeled tempered expectations near I80 were the correct idea. Added 3 day total as the last graphic...definitely short of 5+ expected in Monday's post, partly because yesterdays occurred just too far north.

No plans on new topics, yet. Will post some rainfall verification in a couple of hours. MARFC multi sensor analysis already complete. Multisensor-diminishes isolated extreme at the expense of spatial-areal coverage. Will add those to the original posts, hopefully by Noon. The future: after whatever happens Friday, some sort of drops convection this weekend. Monday afternoon is of interest to me for bigger storms-hail, because of ECMWF modeled 500MB temps near -12C, leftover moisture, modeled lightning, KI. Will reevaluate Saturday, after we clear out the subtropical and kind of better know our soil moisture.

Not much lightning per 00z/9 EC op... mainly east of NYC. Monitor NHC on this development... they have 80% formation, as of 2AM. Ensembles should assist on track.

I rely on ECMWF lightning density... will check soon. Normally, tropical doesn't show much lightning, except in periods of strong intensification. Tropical experts should correct me on this if I'm in error.

Yes, orographics will play a role... haven't bought into any PRE prior to this late developing system. My guess, is the light n-ne flow will be the primary R+ region (if a trough develops northward from the Low. (se flow on the east side of trough tends not to be quite as wet)

Another shower around 315P. 0.22" total so far today in the southern part of Wantage. I'll take it as a bridge to Friday's rain. No watering the flowers tonight.

Thanks on mPing

Hi. 12z/8 modeling still quite variable, some suggesting heavy rainfall, especially LI-CT. As of the 2PM Wednesday NHC TWO---70% chance of developing into a tropical system. Usually, for heavy rain, and tracking a tropical system. I try to follow the 850MB vort. East-southeasterly Inflow suggests a period (duration unknown) of heavy rain much of the NYC forum sometime Friday or Friday night-Saturday morning in PWAT greater than 2.25". I tend to focus on heavy rain being very close to the 850 vort center. May see brief gusts near 35 kt for a short time in squalls near the center NJ, LI coasts. I don't think tidal flooding is major concern, and it will have to be perfect timing with the high tide cycle since we're descending into the lower part of the tide cycles. We may not see much lightning with this, except in initial intensification Thursday or Friday. Others should comment and adjust the thinking and keep track of everything. Not sure who moves this thread to Tropical "if "it becomes named FAY? Thanks for all!

Starting subtropical low/??FAY?? topic in a few min.

The Hudson Valley contributor amount matches Digital Storm Total. Suggest using it as a guide for qpf. Have thunder here in Wantage but paltry .08 here in the southern part of Wantage. Note sure why mPing is not working. Been on and off the past several days.

I see NHC increased to 70% prob for naming... per 8AM TWO. Need time to think on this...include see the UK/EC op around 230P. Thanks for your vote of confidence.

Excellent discussion and thanks for the post. Cutting white pine limbs outside so am in and out. Let's see what happens.

Hi! The primary reason i didn't is it could be a named storm, plus dealing with the uncertainty of this afternoons potential 2-4" clusters (not well modeled so far). Let's get to 9PM tonight and see where we're at. I don't like to post wrong ideas, which I'm a little worried about for this afternoon. For Tri-early Sat: (50% Fay?) Been a little concerned about ensemble and UKMET east of us on the Friday track which probably would feature most of the qpf along and east of the low. Haven't evaluated Friday more than cursory. You're welcome to start the topic but for now, for myself working with the forum, just waiting another 12 hrs or so to have a little more confidence.

Not sure what to make of 12z modeling? It doesn't recognize the heavy rainers very well to start and doesn't do too much with these storms moving toward our NYC forum area. Have seen 2" rainfall rate in ne PA...per digital radar interp. I'd think that is likely...but NWS radar #s are less. Jury out but barring the 12z modeling, I'd be concerned for big storms nNJ, interior s NYS this afternoon. I have to give some credence to modeling. I did note the 00z GGEM did a similar shutoff after 12z today. Unsure. Meanwhile SPC expanded marginal to near our nw NJ border. 77.4/73.6 in Wantage at this time.

Good signs for heavy convection here: convection in progress advancing eastward into ne PA. TD 70-74 as far as I can tell in nw NJ at 1140z...when TD exceeds 1000-500MB last 2 digit thickness value, considerably raises the chance for rain (my own observation over the years-no science). In this case around a 574 thickness and TD here at the house ~73F. Big thunderstorm afternoon appears likely for NNJ/se NYS. 1153z/8

Good Wednesday morning: PWAT-CAPE look good...convection is likely. Believe worst of this is interior se NYS/NNJ with east southeast dying spillage into NYC (not e LI) and maybe sw CT. Cant increase confidence any further, since am concerned about 90F heat making it into the NYC forum. It will be close-just south in central NJ. HRRR convection seems in part related to its modeled hot 90+F temps, so am a little concerned this is overdone. Still, PWAT-CAPE might make up for not much deep layer shear to allow 1 or 2 wet microbursts SVR/brief small FF episodes in our forum area, again mainly se NYS and NNJ, west and northwest of NYC. Please monitor your own favorite resources, including NWS products and forum friends. Not posting anything for Thursday, with lesser chance of anything big, and mainly extreme nw NJ into se NYS early Thursday afternoon. Friday is unknown on whether a named storm so not touching that. 628A/8

No changes to thinking: certainly have no thought to increase the impact. Continued concern about sunshine-heating. Dont like to forecast real heavy convection for stratus regions, unless its WAA (CT/LI look like stratus at least in the morning). Noticed some showers late today eastern LI, now departing. Maybe more toward dawn? Anyone see the radar estimated 1" w of TTN this eve in those small showers. That tells me that if convection does light up as still modeled for NNJ, interior se NYS Wed afternoon, that it will produce torrents in the path of the storms. PWAT still modeled nr 2" 18z Wed, higher than the TTN showers modeled 1.7"ish pwat of this Tue eve. CAPE still modeled near 2000J ~18z Wed. I like the look for big storms NNJ/inteior se NYS. We'll see if it happens and will check back ~7A Wed.

237PM quick update: next update, probably not til ~7am Wednesday. Cutting back max rain amount from wet microburst-outflow thunderstorms back to about 4" (isolated). Just not quite as robust as Monday... less intense heat, not quite as unstable but ~2" PWAT still modeled to be bullseyed somewhere vicinity NYC or just west-northwest. Capable of isolated SVR/FF mainly se NYS/northern NJ, southern boundary of convection probably near I78. Spillage of storms (east-southeast) into NYC sw CT. Did notice SPC extended the D2 Marginal risk southward to the northern border of the NYC forum area. So, in advance, had to cut back my expectations - probably too much cloud and not enough heating. CAPE only to about 2000J and this is modeled more into nw NJ. SPC HREF for D2 has some 1.5" MAX amounts west northwest of NYC and these max amounts in the ~8 member ensemble can be a little underdone, provided robust convection occurs.

Hi!. A couple of summary maps for checking back. I think the DIX radar estimate is reasonable..maybe too high due to hail, in a few of the extreme locations but here it is. As far as I can tell, a couple of known 2.5" reports in ne NJ-see CoCoRAHS map, several 4-5.6" vicinity PHL (realizing not NYC forum). Erred and probably should have caught the preponderance of large hail reports in advance. However, time moves on. (Trace at the house here in Wantage ~8P but occasional thunder). I noticed the Multisensor-radar data seems a little low, especially Philly area and maybe in the radar only, 2+ inch area across ne NJ.

644 AM Tuesday update to this topic: Unleashing rainfall yield for Wednesday: have some doubts per max T forecast and basic 00z/7 QPF modeling. Today: Subdued convectively due to cloud cover but I would think scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, not as widespread-intense as yesterday and not easily-reliably modeled. Might be more near the PA/NJ/NYS tri state border on down to vicinity TTN? IF these occur, potential for 1.5" spot-rainfall in a concentrated tiny area. That per WPC D1, SPC HREF. Moderate confidence. Late tonight: subtle WAA, might yield a cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms toward eastern LI ~ dawn Wednesday. Low confidence. Wednesday: Featuring NNJ/se NYS with some possible east southeastward storm drift into NYC, sw CT after ~6PM. PWAT 1.8-2", More unstable than Tuesday but if temps cant make the upper 80s... then potential yield for big storms and isolated 5+ in doubt. It still appears Wednesday afternoon-evening should be our big convective event of the Mon/6th-Thu/9th time frame, similar or a bit less compared to what occurred near PHL Monday. KI/CAPE/PWAT slow movers in a fairly steamy uncapped environment developed on the remnant warm front/sea breeze boundaries and subsequent outflows, should promote thunderstorms-"potential"prolific rain producers in part of NNJ/se NYS, spilling east-southeast over far western Long Island. Since we saw probable 5-6" rainfall in isolated locations of Morris County NJ and down near PHI on Monday the 6th, it won't surprise if similar isolated 5"+ rainfall occurs in the NYC forum Wednesday. My main concern: do we get enough heating (temp upper 80s)? Potential for short fuse warnings flash flooding and maybe severe wet microburst wind. I'm not thinking about the Friday (low chance FAY? per NHC 2AM/7 5D TWO 40%)-weekend cold front events, understanding in part that the Friday event may need to drop into the tropical portion of the forum? (if it becomes named). Just need to take one day at a time (Tue-Wed) and look for subtle instability/moisture pooling along any boundaries to produce big summer thunderstorms.

It's a bit early, but while Tuesday may be a subdued day compared to this afternoon in NJ, it appears Wednesday afternoon-evening should be our big convective event of the Mon/6th-Thu/9th time frame, similar or a bit less compared to what occurred today near PHL. KI/CAPE/PWAT slow movers in a fairly steamy uncapped environment developed on the remnant warm front/sea breeze boundaries and subsequent outflows, should promote thunderstorms-"potential"prolific rain producers in part of NNJ/se NYS, spilling east-southeast over Long Island (heaviest for LI probably NYC vicinity, but unknown). Since we saw probable 5-7" rainfall in isolated locations of Morris County NJ and down near PHI on Monday the 6th, it won't surprise if similar isolated 5"+ rainfall occurs in the NYC forum Wednesday. My main concern: do we get enough heating (temp upper 80s)? Potential for short fuse warnings flash flooding and maybe severe wind. Will reassess Tuesday morning, possibly updating this topic. I'm not thinking about the Friday (low chance FAY? per NHC 2PM/6 5D TWO 40%)-weekend cold front events, understanding in part that the Friday event may need to drop into the tropical portion of the forum? (if it becomes named).

Will be interested in all rainfall reports 3+ today (I saw the digital storm total-tho wonder if thats a bit of hail contamination). I did see near 5" report Fox Chase PA (near PHL). Will need to revaluate but I think what is happening Philly has decent chance of occurring here in NNJ/se NYS-NYC Wed afternoon-eve, probably less hail but maybe as much or more rain. PWAT/CAPE/KI on EC are seemingly parking here on Wed. Anyway, 3+" rainfall reports in NY forum area, if any, are appreciated and any 5+ in se PA/s of I78. Will start a topic shortly for Due-primarily Wed.

Outflow generated but all these, wherever they develop should eventually turn south or southeast guided by mid level flow and heading for higher CAPE which appears to me south of I80 (also a boundary apparent in NNJ, per check 14z wind field only). No cu here yet in Wantage--definitely bothersome especially for 84/68. Will see what happens. Off line for a while. 1033A/6

SPC thinking and some of the modeling has it unstable in se NYS this afternoon. I see GFS qpf bullseyes, a large one in central NJ but another near the southern Catskills. If you see Cu Congestus or Towering Cu around 11A... you'll be good for strong storms nearby. I write too often in idling time due to the pandemic, but also from a selfish standpoint. I dont want to have to water our gardens every night and am quite fortunate to have a pool. Drought means I have to use well water (precious). So, I am looking to at least hear thunder (Terrier barking) and we both should have a storm but... impact could be quite minor, or briefly severe. IE look for action but whether a direct hit???

As previously modeled and noted by many on this forum...a busy 7 days upcoming for heavy convection-and challenges, not much different from previous days posts. My own concerns are prior to Friday-weekend. Have little doubt about isolated 4+ inch amounts in our NJ/se NYS forum area by Thursday evening (multi day total) but where, and when its greatest impact is less certain. Difficult to escape a few SVR, FF events (metro runoff)..again where?. Monitor NWS products and your own for more detail on reality. I don't want to look too far ahead, so am not going to focus on Friday-weekend for a couple more days. Need to see some qpf production between now and Thursday.