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Same w snowfall: Airport measurements are generally not by NWS, but instead by someone for the NWS, within a mile or 2, and something like 100ft elevation -this since we went to ASOS in the early 90s. Snow measurements are not an FAA mandate. Instead, as noted herein earlier, NWS directs those with interest in climate stats to use nearby representative sites and develop a regional average for snowfall. BUT, having worked in BOS (now BOX), I know the Blue Hill Observatory about 10 mi south of BOS and elevation, home to the longest continuous weather observations in North America... had trimmed foliage nearby its sensors to keep the record similar. Federal monies may not be available for something like this in CP, if ever approved by NYC etc, but for the largest city in the USA, might still be worthwhile.

Good Thursday morning American Weather! I'm out of the daily details on 90+ prediction. It's coming this weekend and difficult to believe that we will avoid 105HI here sometime between Monday the 20th and Sunday the 26th (modeling may tend to be extreme but my ideal of 850T at least 21C at 12z for potential 100F seems a best fit for next weekend, if some of the models are accurate??-zz GGEM-GFS). Convection: None yesterday except extreme s NJ and ~ PHL. Friday morning: Think at a minimum scattered showers and probably isolated thunderstorms 5AM-Noon in our NYC forum. Elevated based convection. WAA and 850MB frontogenesis (FGEN).. PWAT increase to 1.8" Sunday even-night? Maybe a thunderstorm se NYS/sw CT? Monday: PWAT 2", KI modeled to near 38, 2500J. Looks prime to me for scattered big storms with a trough nearby. Is it capped at 700MB?? Suspect not and mid level lapse rates may be interestingly large for svr potential per 00z/16 GFS modeling. Tuesday: Potential WAA big gully washers (FF)-especially central NJ southward where very large CAPE and decent mid-level lapse rates. Capped near 700MB? PWAT NYC down to 1.7 so action may be mostly s of I80? Wednesday: PWAT modeled near 2.1", 3000J, KI 38 and maybe this is Long Island breeze intersections as well as interior developments. Should be interesting. Thursday: Possibly not quite as potent as Wednesday. In summary: while many places will miss the big storms including FF/damaging wind, it should still be interesting for parts of the area...details and confidence left to the start of day boundaries/pooling of high indices. 638A/16

Good Wednesday morning American Weather! A little more complex next week per frontal boundaries. Hope for the 100F but my guess is not, and if so...probably only vicinity EWR. Nevertheless it will be rather hot at times Sunday-Thursday, with 90 probably starting Saturday (HI should make it close to 105 on 1 or 2 days). Big storms... too complex for me now, to be sure of anything. WAA showers/roll of thunder early Friday (see SPC 7/15 issuance upstream D2 severe for late Thursday). Debris may mess up Fri afternoon. Then next week is a mess with potential for a couple of decent episodes. Just not as clear cut to me when and confidence. (btw, interesting CAPE and some modeling for coastal NJ/NYC area this afternoon for a brief shower?) 625A/15

Presume awareness of isolated shower clusters advancing south thru se NYS and sw CT portion of the forum at 6P. Presume these will die around sunset before reaching I80. EC continues 850 jet NYS Thursday night with decent WAA into New England and NYC forum w showers and maybe an elevated based thunderstorm by daybreak Friday. Current EC trends sweep the primary Fri afternoon threat for refiring convection s of I80. Heat is on beyond Friday per the notes by others herein. My view of next good chance of big thunderstorms is Monday, with the work week day's thereafter as per pooling of CAPE/KI/PWAT without a cap...worried about 500MB cap Tuesday. So am uncertain about Tue convection materializing. We're also getting to the time of year where sea breeze boundaries in a high CAPE environment can light up convection on e LI, with less chance in nw NJ if boundaries aren't present there. In other words, Suffolk, eastern Nassau might do okay next week for afternoon convection "if" and near seabreeze intersections. We'll see if this can happen? 620P/14

mPing: I may be late to the table on this... apparently a big problem developed ~7/7. Not sure who corrupted the db, but here's what NSSL has. If there is more updated info, please update me. Thanks, Walt What happened to the mPING app? On July 7, 2020, mPING was flooded with false weather reports and was shut down temporarily. We are working to eliminate vulnerabilities that allowed these false reports to be submitted. However, this may require some time. Once the app is updated, everyone will have the ability to submit mPING weather reports and view the interactive map of mPING reports. We appreciate everyone's patience as we resolve these vulnerabilities. The mPING project is a citizen science collaborative effort led by CIMMS and NOAA NSSL.

Good morning. Might get a brief wrap around shower north of I80 this afternoon? Then looking ahead, not much change from yesterday. Looks to me like WAA elevated convection arrives here near dawn Friday (mostly showers, but a roll of thunder is not impossible). That debris might clutter things up for a convective event here late Friday afternoon-evening but something to monitor as PWAT and convective indices offer a possibility. HOT (90+) appears likely for many parts of our non marine influenced coastal plain almost everyday from Saturday (18th) forward through most of next week. A large convective event or two is possible for portions of our area, guessing from my basis ECMWF modeling, most likely Monday (20th) or Tuesday (21st) of next week when others will additionally comment on the chance of near 100F (and HI 105+), and then again possibly next Thursday or Friday when modeling becomes more uncertain and so for me, much lower confidence. On 100 air temperature... need surface wind to be westerly or northwesterly, especially CP-LI-coastal CT.522A/14

Wantage NJ 0.26" 9PM ish/12 to 2AMish/13

Too optimistic... office's can be tied up in forecast processes, resolving communications difficulties, be it radar, computers etc, answering media, following twitter, messenger, automated data platforms (of which there are many). Now with COVID, not sure how many are in the office to assist (teleworking?). Here's a link which i didn't try, but presume works. You may want to include in the narrative your equipment, exposures for wind...if time and if you feel necessary. I liked to see credible data and sometimes NWS has to initially filter out data that at first glance looks suspect. Any problems, please let me know. Thanks for checking back on this. I recommend this for everyone. Just use the criteria that they give you (pasted below the link - used PHI since it's slightly more compact-note the SVR reports that SPC posts. A large branch can count. https://www.weather.gov/okx/SubmitStormReport Submit Storm Report Submit a Report! Send a Storm Report to NWS Mount Holly Privacy Policy Users can send storm reports via email to the following email address: [email protected] Please provide the following information: Name and/or Skywarn ID Phone number City, county, and state Latitude and longitude (if known) Date and time of the weather event Type and description of weather observed (see the table below) Photographs of measurement and/or damage, if possible The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ greatly appreciates the cooperation and dedication of all of our spotters and cooperative weather observers. Tornadoes Flooding Winter Weather Tornado Funnel cloud Wall cloud Persistent rotation Flooding that results in evacuations Water rescues: cars, roofs, or trees Water rapidly rising, or entering homes, not just basements Roads impassable or closed due to high water Small streams or rivers overflowing their banks Moderate coastal flooding, not just nuisance inundation 1”+ snow in 24 hours 1”+ snow in past hour Freezing rain/drizzle Any ice accumulation Thunderstorms Miscellaneous Tree uprooted or downed > 1 large limb downed Power lines downed Hail (any size) Rain > 1” in past hour Winds > 40 MPH Damage to structures Tsunami Any injuries or deaths that are weather related

I hope this is a good Monday morning! No severe thread today and not much for me to talk about for a few days. IF anything occurs this afternoon in our NYC forum coverage area, probably restricted on our eastern edge, mainly New Haven County and plenty of doubt. Looking ahead, actually might be a brief shower tomorrow-Tuesday beneath the cool pool 500MB trough with some instability wrapping southeast. Then Thursday night (overnight) convection still seems plausible in WAA. Looks pretty hot for a while Saturday-Wednesday of next week and with PWAT creeping up above 1.8 at times, maybe we'll have a boundary or two to spawn pockets of big convection? Last night: lightning died in western NJ (as far as I can tell). One shower gust that I found, 26KT at KLGA ~949P (briefly PRESRR also). And the digital rainfall is posted.. blue starts .48". So no 1" in our forum area...but there is the coverage... too much decay after midnight which i didn't expect.

Good Sunday afternoon everyone, No new threads. Not well synched for our area tomorrow, tho possible iso svr LI/sw CT maybe back ti NYC Longitude?? Just seems like nw NJ (Morristown westward)/Orange County NY out of it. Afternoon hailers seem possible New England, and maybe under the cold core upstate NY? Did want to note that we might have a pretty decent elevated based thunderstorm during the night tonight with more 40% coverage of measurable showers. Could pop isolated 1" amount in any thunderstorms. Seems like the approaching trough, 500T cooling and 850T holding steady, PWAT increasing to 1.8" overnight, 850 VORT trough, and KI looking to rise into the mid 30s suggests to me an instability burst (Dr Rod Scofield research). Would not surprise to see isolated G30 kt. Look upstream after sunset to see if anything redevelops and starts heading toward NNJ/LI. 310P/12

another good observation. good work

Good Sunday morning everyone! A new day-start. More convection. No strong thunderstorm thread on Monday yet, tho SPCD2 now has a marginal (no hailers mentioned). Prefer to revaluate and may be hold off til early tomorrow morning, if then. Edited: 612A Hailer risk may be better for Tuesday, and only the New England forum. Thursday the 17th, now looks off for me here (elevated based and dying convection rolling east across parts of the area Thursday night?). After that, whatever the models give, they might take away... but does look hot for a day or 2 around the 19th-21st?

These reports, akin to this, not sure if they're called into the NWS or sent in on a spotter line. This kind of documentation is valuable for NWS (and ourselves) self assessment. I can help get this connected to the right location for their consideration. Good report. Thanks.

Unsure what will be reported from the recent warning in se NYS...but thought it would be interesting to post OKX radar, a couple of wundermaps with large 2+ amounts (includes a slight amount of early this morning), verifying OKX radar (yellows 2+") and radarscope digital storm total and verifying the SPC HREF max qpf fcst for today (12z/10, 00z/11, 12z/11-you will see the init times I have reversed order but the idea is there just the same)) Note ne NJ and se NYS, and subsequent verification idea (purple is 1.5+ and red is 3+). This is why WPC and myself use this guidance quite a bit. 845P/11

Well...this one is about over. Not a good day for warnable storms. many brief heavy sun showers w rainbows, isolated thunderstorms. Few below severe gusts. Wantage .24" around 545P w a gust 27MPH. A few power outages se NYS. Did not quite live up to marginal risk here in NY forum.

Here's the 1 hr COUNTY wide FFG. Also FFW posted ne NJ (not attached).

Looks like some sort of flooding will be occurring ne NJ soon. already digital STP .6" and I see some OHP of around 1.2"near Pearl River in extreme se NYS. When it rains, it pours.

You all saw this? Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0470 (Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 ) MPD Selection Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0470...Corrected NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 205 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Corrected for end time and removing counties from image Areas affected...Eastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeast Upstate NY and NYC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 111800Z - 120000Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing in a highly unstable environment will become more widespread through the afternoon. Rainfall rates will likely exceed 1"/hr, and may approach 2"/hr at times. Despite rapid storm motion, rainfall of 1-2" with isolated higher amounts is possible. This rain falling on top of saturated soils may produce flash flooding. Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms evident in reflectivity from KDIX WSR-88D are expanding in coverage this afternoon. This expansion is due to intensifying ascent in an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment. GOES-16 WV imagery indicated a shortwave lifting northward from southern NJ, impinging upon a stationary front analyzed at 15Z extending from a surface low in NW Upstate New York southward to the Chesapeake Bay. Recent GPS observations measured TPW of 1.9-2.1 inches, around 1.5 standard deviations above the climo mean, while RAP analyzed MUCape had climbed to around 2000 J/kg east of the stationary front. As the afternoon progresses, ascent will expand into the moist and unstable environment as the shortwave and front lift east-northeast. This should lead to increasing areal coverage of thunderstorms. With PWs remaining around 2" and MUCape potentially approaching 3000 J/kg, rain rates of more than 1"/hr are likely as noted by high HREF neighborhood probabilities. The limiting factor to flash flooding will be the expected rapid storm motions to the NE as noted by 25-30 kts of 850-300mb mean flow. However, bulk shear of 25 kts and unidirectional shear parallel to the stationary front both pose a threat for some storm organization and short-term training. This suggests that despite the rapid cell motion, rain rates of 1-2"/hr occurring multiple times across the region could produce 1-2" of rainfall with isolated higher amounts, and this is reflected by CAMs simulated reflectivity and 6-hr QPF. FFG here is quite low due to saturated soils from recently departed T.S. Fay. Rainfall of 2-5" occurred Friday, producing compromised FFG that is as low as 0.25"/1hr, with widespread FFG less than 1"/1hr and 1.5"/3hrs. HREF 3-hrly exceedance probabilities climb to near 50%, and NWM streamflow anomalies show several areas of high flow. While flash flooding is not expected to be widespread, these excessive rates, especially if they occur in any urban areas or across the most sensitive FFG, could lead to flash flooding into this evening. Weiss

Looks sort of lame so far as far as severe goes... not sure if it will crank up? will check again at 330P. Should be east northeastward moving lines.

Good observations noted in these pages. I like the Suffolk-BOS and relating Sandy-Fay. I add this but kind of late... New England qpf assessment. No sure if there is a plot somewhere of all our forum area (observed)?

I may have been 2-3 hours too soon on this window... but 12z guidance both SPC-3KM NAM and HRRR continue. I may be out of communication until about 1230P.

Looking beyond today: Timing of convection uncertain but Monday the 13th could see a few hailers... timing of convection is my concern. Tuesday: leftover in se NYS?? Thursday the 16th looks interesting to me but convective debris may nix a fairly potent day---which has a nicely modeled 500mb wind field, CAPE etc. This is not the end of potency per overall USA-Canadian jet and attempted thrusts of heat into the ne USA beyond the 16th. Enjoy every minute of this active period. 605A/11

Please see SPC, NWS discussions, any statements, and our own members. Leftover PWAT, relatively strong 500MB (30kt) wind field, modeled CAPE, lightning density, SPC HREF and WPC D1 QPF all suggest pretty decent convection this afternoon dying out by late evening. Combination of convection (expecting several 1.5 to as much as 3" amounts today) and past weeks rains, should more easily permit isolated flash flood. Wind damage, mostly associated with wind and maybe a couple of uproots because of somewhat softer ground. Hail not mentioned but I dont think primary in this leftover tropical environment. Eastern LI seems less likely for SVR/FF this event.

Wantage (southern part) only 1.93. Beneficial: have reviewed a few posts on this particular page of FAY and appreciate the comments, especially data nw NJ. The radar estimates to me appear to be too low. Appears to me USA models + GGEM generally out performed EC and especially UK on track/rainfall expectations. A decent winter-like nor'easter in subtropical environment. Have one 4a-4a QPF map... and will add an update for entire forum area around 11A. In the meantime, max gusts per OKX to supplement earlier max gusts posted on this thread. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off and last evenings rainfall totals for the OKX area: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202007102343-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX PHI rainfall totals as of just before midnight. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

On Fay early reference per earlier inquiry: FAY as a storm was mentioned I think on Monday or Tuesday, helpful tropical references to todays event were made by Bluewave on the 4th and others on Sunday the 5th. All good. Wantage NJ at least 1.58 so far since about 11AM, most of it after Noon-a 6 hour total.