wdrag

Quick question: Am a little frustrated with MDL not posting MOS since 7/6 and I know NWS wants buy in on the NBM and is ready to discontinue, but myself, I like MOS as an idea of concerns. Is anyone able to acquire the GFS extended statistical guidance for locations in NJ and NYC... (not ALB). Just point me in the right direction. Thanks much, Walt

Onward: Friday: may still have some showers and isolated storms near I80 in NJ through LI and southward. Saturday: May be dry, but modeling still showing small chance isolated shower. Sunday-Monday: Potential nw flow severe event? Still cant get rid of this yet. Modeling has this I90 northward. IF it doesn't occur, then likely renewed heat wave where it doesn't end this week per other posts here...Sunday-Tuesday or Wednesday. Might get to near 97 again in the city- but for now I'm just thinking the rest of this week and allow the models to develop better consensus on short waves-heat and convective thrusts from Sunday the 26th-Wednesday the 29th. 729A/22

Good Wednesday morning everyone, Add graphics etc as you like. After reevaluation using guidance through 09z/22, made no change regarding the topic discussion. I'll add two incomplete graphics for the overnight event which is ongoing (eastward and soon ending) the extreme east portion of our NYC forum (LI,CT). Lightning accumulation graphic was snapped around 514A, and the Radar storm total will continue adding on for LI/CT through 830AM. Today: Modeling is trying to focus a line through virtually all of our area 5-9P, but there could be isolated storms ahead of it this afternoon, and maybe another cluster or two trailing behind the primary line - up till about midnight, especially se NYS and nw NJ. Thursday: wind fields look a little stronger to me for an even better chance of SVR/FF late in the day or evening. Monitor SPC guidance for any upgrade in their thinking. FOG may be a problem the next two afternoons along the south coast of LI, especially Suffolk County. Otherwise heat wave should continue non marine influenced coastal plain next two days. Had .07 on the northern fringe of the southern overnight complex (~1235A). Saw one quarter inch near Patterson, NJ. 614A/22

Fortunately the EC is not known for its convective prowess. However, am a little concerned that Thursday especially may not produce much if the wind at 850 shifts to west or northwest too soon on Thursday. Need to reevaluate Wednesday morning. One day at a time.

Biggest convection both Wednesday and Thursday should be afternoon or evening, depending on where you are. And so... probably okay for a 90 min drive Thursday, but subject to an update Wednesday or even Thursday before 6A. Not sure if anyone noticed, but SPC 13z D1 marginal update has been bulged northward slightly in PA. Thinking that might reflect fairly robust nighttime WAA out there. We'll see how it goes.

After yesterdays long range failure of convection (arrived Sunday night), must look ahead. Modeling, SPC, WPC graphics all suggest opportunity for heavy convection Wednesday-Thursday (22-23). Attached the 6 hr County Average threshold FFG, with hourly guidance even lower amounts. This shows vulnerability in parts of ne NJ and se NYS, plus urban paved environments. SPC Days 1-3 is attached as issued early Tuesday. Also, added a brief 06z/21 GFS snapshot of modeled winds aloft for LGA via Bob Hart's web page (time is in UTC). Note the near 30 kt or greater westerly flow at 500 and 300 MB, showing the idea of enough wind to foster development of SVR organization and strong downdrafts. In these two days, "isolated" storm totals of 4" easily possible with 'general' two-day total amounts of 1/2-2". Warm Air Advection (WAA) instability burst (KI popping into the upper 30s from southwest to northeast by daybreak Wednesday driven by a modeled small 850MB 30 kt jet core in central PA overnight) 'should' develop some briefly heavy showers or a thunderstorm for parts of our NYC forum early Wednesday morning, especially nw NJ/se NYS. After any clusters pass, cloud debris/instability pooling and surface wind shift convergence boundaries will probably be the determinants of when and where heavy convection occurs Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Heaviest should be afternoon-early evening and per modeling, think the bulk of the FF/SVR should be along and north of I80 (far northern NJ, se NYS, CT and LI) but I defer to your assessments, and those of the NWS offices/SPC/WPC, and the modeling from the HRRR and SPC HREF. 734A/21

The future from my perspective: will begin a new two day topic for Wednesday-Thursday and add a couple of graphics by 740A. Next heat-convective event sometime between Sunday afternoon and the middle of next week, but modeling is variable as to which day? and modeling is also variable if indeed another heat wave occurs for NYC between the 26th-29th. I do note the GFS operational has reverted to a potential nw flow event here Sunday (00z/06z 21 cycles), but other global models differ (early or middle of next week). No matter, opportunity for action continues in the overall pattern sometime between Sunday the 26th and Wednesday the 29th.

Looking back the past two days... looks like 97 was the good non-marine influenced max T for the 19th-20th. Even though the HI made it up to near 103-104 in Toms River and possibly parts of LI, overall, I think the max HI was closer to ~100 .. and so from my perspective yesterday-Monday the 20th, did not quite live up to the intense heat that was suggested in some of the modeling (trough too close and so some afternoon lowering of the TD near the city on a westerly surface wind).

Wrapping up: nothing happened Monday afternoon, probably due to some drying aloft, trough too close (West-northwest wind too close to the city).This gives the dry short term modeling the correct answer, (long term modeling was too robust for Monday the 20th).

Nothing going on and probably little or none today in our area. Closest shower at 335P looks near DCA. Where there are cu fields, they still look pretty flat. Was thinking LI breezes could go but apparently too stable, so far. 338P/20

Wantage NJ .02 in a brief heavy shower around 215A. 75/74 as of 638A..small patches of blue sky seen through deck of AC. Updating the outlook from previous mornings. Wednesday: Please see SPC D3 marginal risk for our area. Wind fields stronger than those of late yesterday and today, and much more CAPE/KI will be place. Thursday: Convection still possible. Sat night-Sunday strong thunderstorm northwest flow event...may be delayed to Sun night-Monday? Looks potent for a quick moving complex somewhere through the northeast quad of the country. Monday-Wednesday: EC is bonkers on heat and usually overdone - subject to large error...but ring of fire convection possible (around the rim of the Great Lakes northward bulging ridge) -in other words, 1 or 2 northwest flow events possible if not mid level thermally capped. Uncertain but interesting. 648A/20

Good Monday morning everyone, Have attached what happened since 6PM yesterday, lightning, severe reports and radar for our area (most of it after 22z/19 though there were a few isolated cells early Sunday afternoon in se NYS/ne PA). The reason for the attachments... the overnight reality was not well modeled by the models including the HRRR and SPC HREF (and still not as of 6AM/20). Which leads me to this afternoon. Please see SPCD1 and local NWS offices for details on any evolution. I know most of the models are dry except UK/Canadian have spotty action but I'm not convinced. I suppose most of NYC forum is out of the convection this afternoon, but I'm still alert for isolated eastward moving severe storms in our area developing 2-4PM this afternoon I95 corridor eastward, inclusive of extreme southern CT, LI, eastern and southern NJ. Plenty of instability with a surface trough nearby. Wind direction will start sorting itself out with mixing around 9 or 10AM and then we'll see what we have. If no new CU fields ~11A, then probably nothing. Mid level lapse rates increase this afternoon-especially south of the modeled 500MB -5C cap aligned just nw of I95 at 18z (thats why I chose I95 corridor southeastward and also thinking back to yesterdays SPC D2). GFS CAPE looks more reasonable then that very low 18z CAPE of the EC. 637A/20

Modeling looks terribly slow and ineffective for two bands of convection this evening in NYS/PA. Running much faster. If this is true... parts of our NYC forum, at least se NYS and nw NJ are going to experience a brief heavy shower or gusty thunderstorm between 815PM and midnight and possibly again near 2AM Monday. That leaves us with what for Monday afternoon? I think a pretty ripe environment for big storms maybe even up just N of I80...with interestingly large mid level lapse rates, especially I78 south. Not promising big stuff near NYC but it seems to me modeling (not SPC - check their Marginal D2) is missing potential svr/ff, especially southern part of our forum Monday afternoon 2P-7P. Will rereview how things are going Monday morning around 7A, but for now... it looks like big heat has generated big storms Sunday evening just west of the forum and I think very poorly modeled. If someone has seen a model that is performing admirably in PA/NYS to the Poconos and Catskills, please let us know. 735P/19

Posting topic shortly... too much going wrong with modeling. Not sure how this ends up. Topic will describe uncertainty. May be useless but you have to be bothered by terrible modeling. Walt 722P Results and update posted at 637A/20.

Wantage (southern part). Max 91.4. Currently 91/73 at 5PM. on SVR for Monday... think SPC did right cutting back on nw extent in our area. No topic at this time. Think it could go big near I80 south between 2-5P and then out of NYC forum by 8P. might start up here in nw NJ/se NYS as isolated thundershowers and grow in the more favorable environment I80 south some time around 2 or 3P. Meanwhile, leftover severe remnants from the POH Valley NYS/PA seem destined to die se NYS/extreme nw NJ as showers/iso thunderbetween 2A-5A Monday. Will comment in the morning based on SPCD1 etc. Enjoy the heat and cooling breezes! 503P/19

Good Sunday morning American Weather participants! Rutgers site looks to be working as of a few minutes ago. If not, please inform. I'd send them a message but I think whatever it was to halt posting data, is resolved. High T yesterday here in Wantage (less than 1.5 mi from Space Farms) was 89.6-- so that goes as 90 and our heat wave has started. Temp Outlook: I've no change in overall max T/HI through next Sunday26th as per yesterday. GFS continues to try to cool us Fri-weekend while EC/GGEM do not-jury still out but am not buying all that relief in the GFS around here. GFS may be too robust with a short wave passage late this workweek and the subsequent associated pattern cooling. The EC ensemble 500MB pattern is decidedly weaker with that far eastern Canada cooling. Convection Outlook: Monday..a little worried that upstream severe this evening sends dying showers/thunder in here predawn Monday, with the associated surface wind shift too close for us in the afternoon except southeastern New England and s of I80 in NJ. That could mean nada for most of the NYC forum except NJ s of I80? However, it's too early for me to throw in the towel. While modeled CAPE is not quite as robust on the EC (my main cue guide as prior operational modeling), it still has plenty of PWAT and KI over us through early Monday afternoon. Won't start a topic on the SPCD2 marginal(I liked it's read) until late today. Want to see the HRRR (12z version through 18z Sunday pick up on something around 17z, and certainly the 18z run pick up on something for Monday afternoon). UK has a little something tomorrow morning while other Global models in general have dried out the QPF here in the NYC forum coverage area. So, the heat may be wasted for convection here...I just don't know, but the past 24 hours of modeling has me much less certain on Monday's convective threat outcome. IF convection does flare, mid level lapse rates look pretty sizable to enhance convection. Winds marginal. Just too early. Wednesday should have some pretty good activity in our area...stronger signal than tomorrow=Monday. Thursday...? potential exists for sizable convection but need to focus on Monday, Wednesday first. Saturday night-Sunday: GFS is basically zip but I like the GGEM-EC staying on message with main uncertainty where the strongest convection will track. A northwest flow severe signal is d present (mid level northwesterly enhanced flow) with capping a possible issue (along the edge of the -4C 500MB might be where to find the convection). So this too is uncertain, because of modeling differences. Til later--- I'm probably off line til late day. 838A/19

Wantage 84/65 few this sc generated since Noon. Basically brilliant sunshine. Maybe we'll have a clear shot at the Comet this eve before a little AC forms later at night.

I'd heard of that near LA and absolutely-common sense! Have no idea of NWS plans. I think the military has been using WBGT as their guide for 50+ years. Posted this article because of the Law relating to HI litigation. This may accelerate research-and any subsequent change and comments. I've drifted away from descriptive adjectives spicing up the weather and just letting the numbers dictate local action.

Noting no convection for NY forum Monday in the 12z/18 NAM. Might be because surfaceT forecast in the NAM3k is about 5 degrees too low for the afternoon. I think the convective temp is modeled around 95. So we're going to need to get to that value to get convection started. Could see this as a bit later start Monday... maybe closer to 3 or 4P if it takes longer to reach 95?? Still uncertainty.

Have posted this as new topic on wx and forecasting. I will try to add another useful table shortly... but thought you would be interested in the Law striking down use of the HI for sending employees home. https://www.natlawreview.com/article/judge-finds-no-scientific-basis-nws-heat-index-chart-used-osha-heat-stress-cases?fbclid=IwAR3GqCKx7x0of72DYREF9X-mU7e34H2ECMQfyr71R0tmeJE_XTG9NtwkkdY May be replaced by WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature- 82 might be a threshold). I'm not studied on this and I'll try to get more info and add to this topic and if there is any predictive data to view.

Let's discard this topic if it's been posted elsewhere. Thanks. https://www.natlawreview.com/article/judge-finds-no-scientific-basis-nws-heat-index-chart-used-osha-heat-stress-cases?fbclid=IwAR3GqCKx7x0of72DYREF9X-mU7e34H2ECMQfyr71R0tmeJE_XTG9NtwkkdY May be replaced by WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature- 82 might be a threshold). I'm not studied on this and I'll try to get more info and add to this topic and if there is any predictive data to view.

Good Saturday morning American Weather participants, No significant change in thinking through Sunday the 26th. Heat wave for sure non-marine influenced, with max temps near 97F Sunday-Monday and possibly next Sunday the 26th, for portions of the lower Hudson Valley, northeast NJ near EWR etc, interior Fairfield and New Haven counties of sw CT and possibly NYC? HI for sure near 105 Monday. Little cooler elsewhere but sweaty. Eastward moving FF/SVR scattered about Monday afternoon 2P-10P (marginal risk out already by SPC in its D3), Wednesday afternoon-night, and possibly again Saturday night or Sunday the 25th-26th. Thursday the 23rd is not locked out of a FF/SVR threat but looks less potent and so am not highlighting. Sat night-Sunday (25-26) could be an unlikely 2 episodes, but so far in the future. What I'm sure of is that there will be strong WAA with a 500 MB -4C cap nearby in a northwest flow severe environment with a pretty good jet barreling southeastward into the northeast USA. My guess is late Saturday night is the primary threat on that one. PWATS Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Sat night-Sunday all near or above 2" with KI 35-40. (Mondays current SPC D3 may start this as a topic sometime Sunday-just want to keep everything going on this thread regarding the upcoming 8 days modeled interesting summer weather) Last night: Attached the radar storm total from last evening-overnight, modeled best by HRRR radar, and definitely a surprise for me, especially extent-long lived event, even into this morning in the Atlantic southeast of LI. Looked impressive from the backside here in nw NJ. Not that much lightning but biggest storm tops look like they made to between 35-40K. It was good that PWAT had come down from the morning or the several 1.25" reports would have been much larger. 755A/18

Wantage NJ, .06 so far this morning 6A-10A... model cued past few days for this morning per instability burst, PW bumping up to 1.8", Ki bumping up into the 30s with a burst of westerly wind near 850MB. FGEN/WAA. NAM3K has an idea of the generation from tropical tidbits lower dynamics section. Saw .3 in Wxunderground southern LI. Attached OKX Storm total radar analysis thru 11A today. Might be a little light in nw NJ but acceptable.

Good morning American Weather! It's Friday. Patches of showers which had been on the wane between 4A-6A are now increasing a bit. In fact, I just clicked off .01 here in Wantage of nw NJ with radar not showing anything over me at 615A. So, it looks to me like this is mainly a morning shower event. I figure if some of us don't get anything this morning, not much can happen late today when the column has dried out at mid levels. The HRRR and couple of models are trying for a brief heavier southeastward moving shower or low top thunderstorm late this afternoon, especially east of the Hudson River, so I defer to that possibility but it doesn't look like much if anything to me. The future: Still hot and humid with model disagreement, especially Thursday the 23rd onward. Some of the heat numbers are little lower midweek, but that could be timing of showers-storms with time of day of the modeled temps. Thinking 90F begins Saturday away from waters influence and of course below 1000 feet elevation. Sunday looks like mid 90s to me. Could be 97F in a few spots but NYC/LI/S coast CT subject to the vagaries of the wind direction. Monday: I think this is a big convective afternoon 2P-9P, with capping (warm temp above 10C at 700MB, and/or warmer than -5C at 500MB) being a possible limiting factor. Otherwise, looks to me like a trough nearby as a lift mechanism with GFS modeled 6 to 6.5C mid lvl lapse rate (700-500MB - best of the work week when CAPE/KI/PWAT is in place). CAPE should easily exceed 2000J, PWAT 2.1, KI 38...activity shift s of I80 around sunset. May be the best chance for HI105 this week. Late Tuesday night? WAA showers/storms from se PA-s NJ develop northeastward?? Probably not occurring but WAA and keeping this in the back of mind. So far, WAA early mornings have not been very productive in my outlooks for thunderstorms (has just been a few showers). Wednesday afternoon-early night: Could be big for showers and thunderstorms with PWAT 2.2, 2000J and KI up to 38 in the evening. Next weekend: GFS nada, GGEM-EC say look for another 90+F day with potential for a period of big convection. ECMWF 500MB -4C capping might be a limiting factor. Something to monitor to see which model group performs better. In summary: am looking for a few SVR/FF in parts of our NYC forum Monday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon/night with HI 105 Monday and max temps into the mid-upper 90s Sunday-Monday away from the waters influence. This based on the model science-pattern cues. 636A/17

I think the data is not tainted if foliage is similar over the years. I don't want to get into the weeds on this, but CP has a problem if indeed it has become overgrown like this. Fortunately we have many other sites nearby with period of record beyond 50 years. I think Blue Hill has handled it thoughtfully well to keep the record relatively intact, as in it's beginnings.