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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Yes... but LI-yours is to come now. If you get to 65-68 kt in a few places.. i consider that a hit on 24 hours notice. Let's see what happens. In the meantime... there will be maybe a 1 hour lull when the wind shifts from south to sw, then blasts for 30 minutes out of the west 45-55kt, before the wind abruptly drops off. Used the experience of platforms in DE.
  2. wdrag
    Many reports 50-60 kt coastal plain of NJ and Atlantic Coastal DE. At least one station not reporting anymore in DE BAY. Perth Amboy near 50 kt now. NJ power outages up to at least 274,000 customers (more than half a million people without power). 1.16 Wantage at 1205P/4
  3. wdrag
    Give this til 130P. If nothing, then don't giver up on back side G 45-50kt for an hr around 4P. HRRRX modeling has been good at 24 hrs and very good inside 12 hours.
  4. wdrag
    Modeling of winds gusts from 12z HRRRX... this modeling looks very accurate to within 5kt. 50 kt =58 MPH. Posted for 17z, and 21z...note nw NJ in a little lull then cranks on the west flow around 4P. Also added power outages. Many reports 55-64KT in NJ coastal plain. 1144A/4
  5. wdrag
    Not sure how long I last with power up here in nw NJ. Might luck out if kids remain below 45 kt this afternoon. NJ power outages ramping up rapidly.
  6. wdrag
    Between 10 and 11A... 50kt plus as below...borrowed from MOE-FSU- Dr Bob Hart website developer. KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [54kt, 28m/s] KDOV: Dover AFB, DE, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KGED: Georgetown, Sussex County Airport, DE, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KLFI: Langley AFB, VA, United States [51kt, 26m/s] KMFV: Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KNGU: Norfolk, Naval Air Stn, VA, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KNHK: Patuxent River, Naval Air Stn, MD, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KNTU: Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Stn, VA, United States [58kt, 30m/s] KORF: Norfolk, Norfolk Intl Arpt, VA, United States [53kt, 27m/s] KOXB: Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KSBY: Salisbury, MD, United States [53kt, 27m/s] KWAL: Wallops Island, VA, United States [59kt, 30m/s] KWRI: Mcguire AFB, NJ, United States [51kt, 26m/s] KWWD: Wildwood, NJ, United States [54kt, 28m/s] Power outages continue to expand north...as of 1103A...here is your customer count. On average 2.5x thats value for number of people without power. Only 0.71" so far in Wantage. 1116A/4
  7. wdrag
    64 KT occurred Ocean MD on a platform. Elevated platform in DE BAY 67 kt. LBI SURF looks like a potentially very bad report a few minutes ago and so not using but if there is big damage by LBI...specific report should be sent here with resource. 50 KT up to Brick NJ. Within about 2 hours NYC and LI involved with 50 kt+
  8. wdrag
    ENH...enhanced risk. Just follow any warnings. This is trying to convey reality - situational awareness and advancing northeastward for several hours. Let's see what happens.
  9. wdrag
    I may be losing a data resource due to power outage??? Unsure... will be off line til 1115A. Power outages increasing N of VA now. 1018A/4
  10. wdrag
    The following is for information only. NOT media for rebroadcast. I'm borrowing from another highly reliable source, with whom I've not had time to discuss permission transmitting his information. BUT... thisto highlight the seriousness of the on-going event to motivate concern. Short hammering event. Be smart when NWS issues the warnings. Isaias has been overperforming in terms of tornadoes, with many confirmed touchdowns overnight and this morning between NC and Delaware. Tornado outbreaks in TCs often have a diurnal component, but temperatures staying around 80 (with dewpoints well into the 70s) northeast of the storm's center created sufficient instability to accompany the intense low-level shear and create a night/early morning outbreak. Significant damage in Suffolk, VA, damage in southern MD and on the eastern shore, and a possible ongoing long-track event through central Delaware. While the main area of interest right now is in DE/NJ shifting into southeast New England this afternoon, there are active tornado warnings as far north as New Hampshire, and SPC has issued an ENH risk for an area that includes NYC metro.
  11. wdrag
    HRRRX wind gusts tend to run high...a bit high but not more than 10kt in my estimation. Iso seeing HRRRX winds come down 5 or 10 kt is good. t's cranking s NJ -Wallops now and I think the values I'm seeing in the 10z guidance will be accurate to within 5kt.
  12. wdrag
    I think but cant really analyze well from my home view. Check satellite and other mets may be commenting on this. No question there weill be a brief 1 or 2 hour shot of 40+KT westerlies behind Isaias. Thats what should get nw NJ hills after 4P.
  13. wdrag
    Cape May now gusting over 50 knots! Would say s 1/2 NJ coast fully involved through 2PM. Quiets down rapidly mid or late afternoon. MY Error on Brick NJ report which was last evening. edited 957A.
  14. wdrag
    62 Knots at 948A Ocean City - South Beach in far s NJ. May be a little high but there should soon be a response in s NJ - power outages.
  15. wdrag
    Much of DE with 50 Knots or greater since 9AM, including GED, DOV and many coastal reporting sites (courtesy wxflow etc). Posted a map of SVR/TOR/Rain reports since 6A... many reports not yet shared officially for the LSR. On-going too fast to get the data out (I suspect).
  16. wdrag
    Many reports 55-60 knots Wallops Island VA north to Dewey Beach DE and now near 50 knots parts of the extreme s NJ coast.
  17. wdrag
    Rain, clearly there has been a west shift, even since yesterday. Still, squalls are coming to coastal NJ, maybe TORS etc. On wind: Power outages spreading north. HRRRX is coming down 5 knots on expected's for today. That is good news for a little less damage inland NJ.
  18. wdrag
    Wachapreague VA 58 KT around 9A.
  19. wdrag
    Winds gusting ~60 MPh now Dewey Beach DE to the MD/VA coasts. 845A/4
  20. wdrag
    Since around 12z 56 KT ECG, ORF 53kt, and the nw wind at RIC 44kt... that's the wrap around back side tail get BWI, nW NJ se NYS and just forming now, i think.
  21. wdrag
    It's coming...gusts 50KT e NC, and many 40s in eastern VA now. Best way I can demo... and will try to improve. Power outages 715A. All sorts of TOR warnings from PHL and near BWI down into eastern VA.
  22. wdrag
    NYC Forum: Have nothing to add forecast wise... prep for power outages and what you will do without power for 24 hours, especially rural areas. I expect to lose internet sometime between 2-5P this afternoon here in nw NJ, after which I'll be out of contact til internet returns. IF impact ends up less, then good; but if not prepared and it goes as the overnight modeling anticipates, you may wish you had planned. Those mitigation strategies need to be completed by Noon at the latest. My only regret for this thread was not adding SVR risk last evening for the forum...just was too tired thinking about the overall wind/rain impact. TOR threat today as per other posters... coastal NJ northeastward. Follow SPC/local NWS issuances. My preparation suggestion is everyone in our NYC forum have enough cash on hand to weather no power for a while, a full gas tank, and be aware you may not be able to move around in some areas where gusts tear down trees/wires. I could see power out for a week in hard to reach rural areas of CT, if 70 knot gusts materialize for coastal NJ/LI/western New England while lesser 55kt anticipated high terrain eastern NYS/nw NJ. Flood threat in our forum area is mainly northern NJ/se NYS, and it may not be too bad in our area. 530A/4
  23. wdrag
    TOMS River from a thunderstorm peak G 61 kt at 751P KMJX 032353Z AUTO 25041G61KT JFK 45 kt right now.
  24. wdrag
    Agreed on poor mesoscale modeling via the NAM/ARW. Second slug in VA will find its way up into e PA maybe NJ overnight. If we get a subtle sic wind convergence zone, could easily be some 4+ inch amounts by morning. Not staying up to witness...instead get up at 4A and see what's what. Busy day for NY forum tomorrow including the big damaging winds (fully leafed trees)/rains/FFW's. Could see widespread power outages in the afternoon/eve. Am aware of svr leading edge this eve in NJ heading north on the nose of the 850jet/fgen/waa but just didn't have the heart to get this mixed in as well... too much other high impact weather ahead. The TOR's could be a problem tomorrow, if they occur coastal NJ/LI/CT. 911P
  25. wdrag
    All in NYC forum. I have no answer on how bad, but definitely more serious than first considered when we started the thread days ago. My preparation suggestion is everyone in our NYC forum have enough cash on hand to weather no power for a while, a full gas tank, and be aware you may not be able to move around in some areas where gusts tear down trees/wires. I could see power out for a week in hard to reach rural areas, if 70 knot gusts materialize. LI/New England and high terrain eastern NYS/nw NJ as well as coastal NJ hit the hardest. Rainfall... 2-8" most of our area by 9PM Tuesday, maybe a little higher in tonight-Tuesday overlap. Will check 5P NHC and try too follow up this eve and Tue am. 229P/3
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